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The EPAs Agenda:

Scientific and Economic Justifications


Myron Ebell
Director, Center for Energy and Environment
Competitive Enterprise Institute
(202) 331-2256; mebell@cei.org

National Press Foundation:


Understanding the Environmental Stakes
Washington 19th June 2017
Background

Founded in 1984 and located in Washington, DC


$8 million annual budget
Forty staff
Issue analysis, policy formation, advocacy, and litigation
Focus on regulatory issues: property rights, environmental, energy,
financial, information technology, labor, telecommunications, nanny
state, international trade, UN environmental treaties, constitutional
federalism
We fight to win.
Where is CEI coming from?
Non-profit, non-partisan public policy institute specializing in
regulatory issues from a free market perspective.
CEI accepts no government funding and depends entirely on the
generosity of private individuals, foundations, and corporations.

Freedom We support policies that advance the institutions of political


and economic freedom.
Objectivity We believe that the scientific and economic facts must be
scrupulously respected, regardless of our political preferences.
Life is a risk We reject the one-sided precautionary approach.
Dilbert, 14th May 2017
Scott Adams' Blog
How to Convince Skeptics that Climate Change is a Problem
Posted March 8th, 2017 @ 1:32pm in #climate science

Anyway, to me it seems brutally wrong to call skeptics on climate


science anti-science when all they want is for science to make its
case in a way that doesnt look exactly like a financial scam.* Is that
asking a lot?
* Or a Chinese hoax. They look similar.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158159613566/how-to-convince-skeptics-that-
climate-change-is-a
97% of [climate] scientists believe what?
2004, Naomi Oreskes, Science: 75% of 928 papers
2009, Maggie K. Zimmerman & Peter Doran, Eos, 97% of 3146
respondents (79 climate scientists)
2010, Wm. R. Love Anderegg, PNAS, 97-98% of 200 most
prolific writers on climate science
2013, John Cook, Environmental Research Letters, 97% of
abstracts of peer-reviewed papers 1991-2011
2013, David R. Legates et al., Science and Education, 1% of
4,014 abstracts in Cook expressing an opinion and 0.3% of
11,944 abstracts in Cook
Christy-Spencer Global Mean Temperature
Data derived from weather satellites
Global Warming: models vs. reality
Global Mean Surface Temperature: 1996-2015,
(HadleyCRU3 variance adjusted)
If the models and the data dont agree,
what should we do?
IPCC Third Assessment Report Working
Group 1 Executive Summary

The climate system is a coupled non-linear


chaotic system, and therefore the long-term
prediction of future climate states is not
possible.

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm
The impacts of global warming/climate
change

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Working


Group 1, chapter on extreme weather
events
Global precipitation trends
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-
us-and-global-precipitation
Northern hemisphere hurricane trends
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-
cyclone-activity
U. S. heat wave index
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-
and-low-temperatures
The rate of sea level rise
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-
level
Food production, CO2 levels, temperatures
One of hundreds of agricultural experiments that
demonstrate the growth effects of higher CO2 levels
Source: Idso, C.D. and Idso, K.E. 2000. Technology 7 (suppl): 33-56
NASA, 26 April 2016: Carbon Dioxide
Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
From a quarter to half of Earths vegetated lands has shown
significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels
of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published
in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25.

An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight


countries led the effort, which involved using satellite data from
NASAs Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Advanced
Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments to help determine
the leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planets
vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on
plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental
United States.
CO2 Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-
greening-earth
Economic justifications of
Trumps de-regulatory agenda

What Trump learned during the campaign


Getting America back on a 3% economic growth path
The role of environmental de-regulation
The consequences of energy abundance
Historical per capita GDP growth averages 2%
But not since 2008
Since 2008, business closures
have outnumbered business start-ups
2011 survey by House Oversight Committee:
EPA regulations hurt business most
Wayne Crews, Ten Thousand Commandments (CEI):
total annual cost of regulations: $1.885 trillion
Wayne Crews, Ten Thousand Commandments:
an annual snapshot of the regulatory state,
2016, published by CEI
President Trumps Environmental De-Regulatory Agenda
Campaign commitments on
environmental regulation already
undertaken
Re-open the Green Power Plan for existing power plants
and the NSPS rule for new power plants
Revoke and undo President Obamas Climate Action Plan of
2013
Suspend use of the Social Cost of Carbon guidance
document and the NEPA climate guidance document
Continued

Block the WOTUS RuleWaters of the U. S. (wetlands)


Block the Stream Protection Rule
Re-open the Mercury and Air Toxins Standards Rule
Delay the new Ozone NAAQS Rule
Campaign commitments on energy production
already undertaken

Re-open EPA and BLM methane rules


End coal leasing moratorium on federal lands
Permit Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines
Re-open federal offshore oil and gas five-year leasing plan
Review all regulations that hamper the production and use of
domestic energy
Other actions already undertaken
Re-open the mid-term review of CAF standards
Create Regulatory Review task forces in each department
and agency
Order review of all major National Monument designations
since 1996 with view to downsizing or elimination
OMB proposed budget cuts in FY 2018 of 6% for
Department of Energy, 12% for Department of Interior,
and 31% for the Environmental Protection Agency
Some major outstanding items

Re-open EPAs 2009 endangerment finding that greenhouse


gas emissions endanger public health and welfare
Reform the use of science in the rulemaking process at EPA
and other agencies
Science funding at NOAA, NASA, and NSF
NEPA permitting, federal land management, ESA reform
And Cancel the Paris Climate Treaty
and defund UN climate programs
President Obama submitted U. S. instrument of
acceptance, 3rd September 2016
Paris Climate Treaty entered into force on 4th November
2016
U. S. Nationally Determined Contribution: reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by 26 to 28% below 2005 levels by
2025
Source: Stephen Eule, Institute for 21st Century Energy,
U. S. Chamber of Commerce
U.S. Economic Impacts 2025 2040
Change in GDP (%) -1% -9%
Change in GDP (2015$) -$250 billion -$2.9 trillion
Change in Household Income (2015$) -$160 -$7,000
Change in Manufacturing Jobs -440,000 -3.1 million
Change in Industrial Sector Jobs -1.06 million -6.5 million
Change in Total Economywide Jobs -2.7 million -31.6 million
Percentage Change in Industrial Sector Output (%) 2025 2040
Paper and Allied Products -4% -12%
Cement -21% -23%
Bulk Chemicals -5% -12%
Iron and Steel -19% -38%
Coal -20% -86%
Natural Gas -11% -31%
Petroleum Products -11% -45%
Percentage Change in Emissions Relative to 2005 Levels 2025 2040
Industry -38% -61%
Transportation -13% -55%
Other -1% -53%
Electric -31% -57%
Industrial Process and other CO2 -33% -60%
Non-CO2 -17% -56%
*Reduce GHG emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 levels and continue on a path of a 80% emissions reduction by 2050.
Source: NERA Economic Consulting, Impact of Greenhouse Gas Regulations on the Industrial Sector, March 2016, p. 6
(http://assets.accf.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/170316-NERA-ACCF-Full-Report.pdf).
Why its critical to get out of the Paris Climate Treaty
and de-fund UN climate programs
It creates commitments that will be used in federal court
to support domestic climate rules
It requires the U. S. to make a more ambitious
commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions every
five years in perpetuity
It sets a precedent that multilateral environmental treaties
do not need to be ratified by the Senate
The Green Climate Fund commits developed countries
to provide $100 billion in new climate aid funding to
developing countries every year beginning in 2020. U.
S. share is $22 billion per year.
President Trump announced U. S. withdrawal from
the Paris Climate Treaty on 1st June 2017
Our national interest: comparing NDCs
EIA 2012: Energy poverty is widespread

Sub-Saharan Africa China


8
Rest of
Latin America 585 developing
India
Asia
31
289 379

1.3 billion people in the world live without electricity


EIA: global coal reserves
and oil and gas production
Americas energy price advantage,
expressed in PPP $s
The contribution of wind and solar power

After decades of mandates and subsidies, wind and solar power


provide less than 1% of total global energy demand.

Global energy demand is increasing by roughly 2% per annum.

If global warming is a problem, wind and solar cannot possibly


be the solution.
Correlation of forces
Sierra Club CEI 6
Environmental Defense Fund Heritage Foundation3
Natural Resources Defense Council Cato Institute2
World Wildlife Fund American Enterprise Institute1
National Wildlife Federation Institute for Energy Research3
Wilderness Society Natl. Center for Public Policy Research1
Greenpeace Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow3
Defenders of Wildlife Heartland Institute4
Friends of the Earth ALEC1
Center for Biological Diversity Other groupsfewer than 20

Total budget: >$ 1 billion! Total staff: <50!