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# GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Trip Distribution
& Willumsen, third edition

November 2004
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip Distribution Objectives

Replicate spatial pattern of trip making
Account for spatial separation among origins and destinations (proximity in terms of time, cost, & other factors)
Account for attractiveness among TAZs
Reflect human behavior
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Trip Distribution
Convert Production and Attraction Tables into Origin -
Destination (O - D) Matrices

Destinations
TAZ P A
Origins 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum
1 15 22
1 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 O1
2 13 6
2 T21 T22 T23 T24 T25 T26 O2
3 26 5
3 T31 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 O3
4 18 52
4 T41 T42 T43 T44 T45 T46 O4
5 8 2
5 T51 T52 T53 T54 T55 T56 O5
6 13 6
6 T61 T62 T63 T64 T65 T66 O6
Sum 93 93
Sum D1 D 2 D3 D 4 D5 D6
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Crude approximation for HBW

Crude OD
Production Attraction Calculation
Zone ID P A O=D=(P+A)/2
1 15 22 18.5
2 13 6 9.5
3 26 5 15.5
4 18 52 35
5 8 2 5
6 13 6 9.5
Total 93 93 93
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip Distribution, Methodology

General Equation:
Tij = Ti P(Tj)
Tij = calculated trips from zone i to zone j
Ti = total trips originating at zone i
P(Tj) = probability measure that trips will be attracted
to zone j
Constraints:
Singly Constrained
Sumi Tij = Dj OR Sumj Tij = Oi
Doubly Constrained
Sumi Tij = Dj AND Sumj Tij = Oi
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip Distribution Models

Growth Factor / Fratar Model
Tij = Ti (Tj / T)
Tij = present trips from zone i to zone j
Ti = total trips originating at zone i
Tj = total trips ending at zone j
T = total trips in the entire study
Tij* = Tij (Fi Fj) / F
Fi = T i * / T i
Fj = T j * / T j
F = T* / T
* = estimated future trips
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip Distribution Models

Gravity Model You can consider this as the
probability spatial distribution
Tij = Ti a P(Tj)
Aj / Cij
a
Sum (Ax / Cix)
Tij = trips from zone i to zone j
Ti = total trips originating at zone i
Aj = attraction factor at j
Ax = attraction factor at any zone x
Cij = travel friction from i to j expressed as a generalized cost
function
Cix = travel friction from i to any zone x expressed as a
generalized cost function
a = friction exponent or restraining influence
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip Distribution Models

Intervening - Opportunities Model

## Tij = Ti (e-LT - e-LT(T + Tj) )

Tij = trips from zone i to zone j
T = trip destination opportunities closer in time to zone
i than those in zone j
Ti = trip end opportunities in zone i
Tj = trip end opportunities in zone j
L = probability that any destination opportunity will be
chosen
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Model Comparison
Growth Factor Simple Does not reflect changes in the
Easy to balance origin and frictions between zones
destination trips at any Does not reflect changes in the
zone network
Gravity Specific account of friction Requires extensive calibration
and interaction between Long iterative process
zones
Intervening - Does not require origin - Accounts for only relative
Opportunities destination data changes in time - distance
Claimed to bear a better relationship between zones
fit to actual traffic Arbitrary choice of
probability factor
New: Destination choice models build on intervening opportunities
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Gravity Model Process

1. Create Shortest Path Matrix
- Minimize Link Cost between Centroids
2. Estimate Friction Factor Parameters
- Function of Trip Length Characteristics by Trip Purpose
3. Calculate Friction Factor Matrix
4. Convert Productions and Attractions to Origins and
Destinations
5. Calculate Origin - Destination Matrix
6. Enforce Constraints on O - D Matrix
- Iterate Between Enforcing Total Origins and Destinations
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Shortest Path Matrix

Matrix of Minimum Generalized Cost from any
Zone i to any Zone j (see OW p. 153)
Distance, Time, Monetary Cost, Waiting Time, Transfer
Time, etc.. may be used in Generalized Cost
Time or Distance Often Used
Matrix Not Necessarily TAZ TAZ ID
Symmetric (Effect of ID 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 C11 C12 C13 C14 C15 C16
One - Way Streets) 2 C21 C22 C23 C24 C25 C26
3 C31 C32 C33 C34 C35 C36
4 C41 C42 C43 C44 C45 C46
5 C51 C52 C53 C54 C55 C56
6 C61 C62 C63 C64 C65 C66
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Travel time table (minutes)

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1 2 3 4 5 6
2 2 1 1.5 2 3 4
3 3 3 2 2 2 3
4 4 4 3 1 2 3
5 5 5 4 3 1 2
6 6 6 5 4 4 1
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Friction Factor Models

Exponential:
f(cij) = e- c (cij) c>0

Inverse Power:
f(cij) = cij- b b>0

Gamma:
f(cij) = a cij- b e- c (cij) a > 0, b > 0, c > 0

Trip Purpose a b c
HBW 28507 0.020 0.123
HBP 139173 1.285 0.094
NHB 219113 1.332 0.010
ref. NCHRP 365 / TransCAD UTPS Manual pg. 80
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Example friction factors using

travel times alone

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1.349859 1.822119 2.459603 3.320117 4.481689 6.049647
2 1.822119 1.349859 1.568312 1.822119 2.459603 3.320117
3 2.459603 2.459603 1.822119 1.822119 1.822119 2.459603
4 3.320117 3.320117 2.459603 1.349859 1.822119 2.459603
5 4.481689 4.481689 3.320117 2.459603 1.349859 1.822119
6 6.049647 6.049647 4.481689 3.320117 3.320117 1.349859

## Friction ij = 1/exp(-0.03* Timeij)

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Friction Factor Matrices

Matrix of Friction from any Zone i to any Zone j, by Trip Purpose
Each Cell of a Friction Factor Matrix is a Function of the Corresponding Cell of the Shortest Path Matrix
Each Trip Purpose has a separate Friction Factor Matrix
Because Trip Making
Behavior Changes for
Each Trip Purpose

TAZ TAZ ID
ID 1 2 3 4 5 6
1
2 F11 F12 F13 F14 F15 F16
3 F21 F22 F23 F24 F25 F26
4 F31 F32 F33 F34 F35 F36
5 F41 F42 F43 F44 F45 F46
6 F51 F52 F53 F54 F55 F56
F61 F62 F63 F64 F65 F66
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Trip Conversion(Approximate)
Home Based Trips: Non - Home Based Trips:
Oi = (Pi + Ai) / 2 Oi = Pi
Di = (Pi + Ai) / 2 Di = Ai
Oi = origins in zone i (by trip purpose)
Di = destinations in zone i (by trip purpose)
Pi = productions in zone i (by trip purpose)
Ai = attractions in zone i (by trip purpose)
Note: This Only Works for a 24 Hour Time Period
If our models are for one period in a day we prefer to
work directly with Origins-Destinations
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

O - D Matrix Calculation
Calculate Initial Matrix By Gravity Equation, by Trip
Purpose
Each Cell has a Different Friction, Found in the
Corresponding Cell of the Friction Factor Matrix
Enforce Constraints in Iterative Process
Sum of Trips in Row i Must Equal Origins of TAZ i
If Not Equal, Trips are Adjusted Proportionally
Sum of Trips in Column j Must Equal Destinations of TAZ j
If Not Equal, Trips are Adjusted Proportionally
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

O - D Matrix Example:
Destinations
Origins 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sum
1 T11 T12 T13 T14 T15 T16 O1
2 T21 T22 T23 T24 T25 T26 O2
3 T31 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 O3
4 T41 T42 T43 T44 T45 T46 O4
5 T51 T52 T53 T54 T55 T56 O5
6 T61 T62 T63 T64 T65 T66 O6
Sum D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Attraction/friction matrix
Aj/friction factor Table

Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
1 16.298 3.293 2.033 15.662 0.446 0.992 38.724
2 12.074 4.445 3.188 28.538 0.813 1.807 50.865
3 8.945 2.439 2.744 28.538 1.098 2.439 46.203
4 6.626 1.807 2.033 38.523 1.098 2.439 52.526
5 4.909 1.339 1.506 21.142 1.482 3.293 33.670
6 3.637 0.992 1.116 15.662 0.602 4.445 26.453
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Gravity model probability

Gravity Model Probability
Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
1 0.421 0.085 0.052 0.404 0.012 0.026 1
2 0.237 0.087 0.063 0.561 0.016 0.036 1
3 0.194 0.053 0.059 0.618 0.024 0.053 1
4 0.126 0.034 0.039 0.733 0.021 0.046 1
5 0.146 0.040 0.045 0.628 0.044 0.098 1
6 0.137 0.037 0.042 0.592 0.023 0.168 1

Aj / frictionij
Sum (Ax / frictionix)
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip Interchange - iteration 1

TIJ iteration 1 Target
Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Oi
1 7.8 1.6 1.0 7.5 0.2 0.5 18.5 18.5
2 2.3 0.8 0.6 5.3 0.2 0.3 9.5 9.5
3 3.0 0.8 0.9 9.6 0.4 0.8 15.5 15.5
4 4.4 1.2 1.4 25.7 0.7 1.6 35 35
5 0.7 0.2 0.2 3.1 0.2 0.5 5 5
6 1.3 0.4 0.4 5.6 0.2 1.6 9.5 9.5
Total 19.5 5.0 4.5 56.8 1.9 5.3 93
Dj 18.5 9.5 15.5 35 5 9.5
Ratio 0.949099 1.907311 3.47064 0.615986 2.630148 1.77888

For each cell value we apply the gravity equation once - in this iteration -
after this we use the ratio to adjust the values in the cells - until row and
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip interchange - iteration 2

TIJ iteration 2
Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Oi Ratio
1 7.4 3.0 3.4 4.6 0.6 0.8 19.8 18.5 0.935588
2 2.1 1.6 2.1 3.3 0.4 0.6 10.1 9.5 0.943096
3 2.8 1.6 3.2 5.9 1.0 1.5 15.9 15.5 0.973293
4 4.2 2.3 4.7 15.8 1.9 2.9 31.8 35 1.100092
5 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.9 0.6 0.9 5.2 5 0.956075
6 1.2 0.7 1.4 3.5 0.6 2.8 10.2 9.5 0.932966
Total 18.5 9.5 15.5 35 5 9.5 93

Using the ratios from before we succeed in getting the targets for the sums
of cells for each column - look at the other ratios
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip interchange - iteration 3

TIJ iteration 3
Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total
1 6.9 2.8 3.2 4.3 0.5 0.8 18.5
2 2.0 1.5 1.9 3.1 0.4 0.6 9.5
3 2.8 1.5 3.1 5.7 0.9 1.4 15.5
4 4.6 2.5 5.2 17.4 2.1 3.2 35
5 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.8 0.6 0.8 5
6 1.2 0.6 1.3 3.2 0.5 2.6 9.5
Total 18.1 9.3 15.4 35.6 5.0 9.4 93
Ratio 1.020289 1.016843 1.004978 0.982477 0.991224 1.007046
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Trip interchange - iteration 4

TIJ iteration 4
Zone ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total Oi Ratio
1 7.1 2.9 3.2 4.2 0.5 0.8 18.6 18.5 0.993094
2 2.1 1.5 2.0 3.0 0.4 0.6 9.5 9.5 0.997665
3 2.8 1.5 3.1 5.6 0.9 1.4 15.5 15.5 1.000101
4 4.7 2.6 5.2 17.1 2.1 3.2 34.9 35 1.003991
5 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.8 5.0 5 1.001637
6 1.2 0.6 1.3 3.2 0.5 2.7 9.5 9.5 1.000214
Total 18.5 9.5 15.5 35 5 9.5 93

## We get both rows and columns to produce the sums we want!

GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

Multiple Matrices
For each trip purpose obtain different Origin-
Destination Tij matrices
Usually these are 24 hour Matrices (number of trips
from one zone to another in a 24 hour period)
In assignment we will need a matrix of vehicles
moving from a zone to another during a specific
period (peak usually) in a typical day
GEOG 111/211A Transportation Planning

## Final O - D Matrix (simplified)

Combine (Add) O - D Matrices for Various Trip Purposes
Scale Matrix for Peak Hour
Scale by Percent of Daily Trips Made in the Peak Hour
0.1 Often Used (10% of daily trips)
Scale Matrix for Vehicle Trips
Scale by Inverse of Ridership Ratio to Convert Person Trips to
Vehicle Trips
0.95 to 1 Often Used
Note: Mode Split Process / Models More Accurate, - we will
explore them in class