It follows that:
PROBLEM
If 10,000 women in this age group undergo a
routine screening, about what fraction of
women with positive tests will actually have
breast cancer?
Bayesian Reasoning
Before the screening:
100 out of 10000women with breast cancer
9,900 out of 10000women without breast cancer
Conditional Probabilities:
A = 80/10,000 = (80/100)*(1/100) = p(BA)*p(A) = 0.008
B = 20/10,000 = (20/100)*(1/100) = p(~BA)*p(A) = 0.002
C = 950/10,000 = (9.6/100)*(99/100) = p(B~A)*p(~A) =
0.095
D = 8,950/10,000 = (90.4/100)*(99/100) = p(~B~A) *p(~A) =
0.895
likelihood prior

 =
posterior marginal
probability
Bayes in Brain Imaging
Extension to distributions:



 = =
posterior distribution marginal probability

 =
posterior distribution
*Spiegelhalter
Number and beddays
of infections for 40,000 Rice
Bayes in Brain Imaging
Classical Approach: Bayesian Approach:
Null hypothesis is that no Use the likelihood and prior
activation occurred distributions to construct the
Statistics performed, e.g. a T posterior distribution
statistic Compute probability that
Reject null hypothesis if data is activation exceeds some
sufficiently unlikely threshold directly from the
posterior distribution.
This approach gives the likelihood of
This approach gives the probability
getting the data, given no
distribution of the activation given the
activation.
data.
Cannot accept the null hypothesis that
Can determine activation / no activation.
no activation has occurred.
Can compare models of the data.
Bayes Example 1
The GLM: Estimating Betas
1 p 1 1
p
y = X +
N N N
Observed Signal/Data = Experimental Matrix x Parameter Estimates(prior) + Error (Artifact, Random Noise)
Bayes Example 1
The GLM: Estimating Betas
Bayes Example 1
The GLM: Estimating Betas
Bayes Example 2
Example 2: Accepting/Rejecting Null Hypothesis
Activated
Not Activated
Questions?