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Dr. M. H. Rahbar

Professor of Biostatistics

Department of Epidemiology

Director, Data Coordinating Center

College of Human Medicine

Michigan State University

How do we measure association

between two variables?

1. For categorical E and D variables

Odds Ratio (OR)

Relative Risk (RR)

Risk Difference

Correlation Coefficient R

Coefficient of Determination (R-Square)

Example

linear relationship between BMI (Kg/m2)

of pregnant mothers and the birth-weight

(BW in Kg) of their newborn

information on 15 pregnant mothers who

were contacted for this study

BMI (Kg/m2) Birth-weight (Kg)

20 2.7

30 2.9

50 3.4

45 3.0

10 2.2

30 3.1

40 3.3

25 2.3

50 3.5

20 2.5

10 1.5

55 3.8

60 3.7

50 3.1

35 2.8

Scatter Diagram

Scatter diagram is a graphical method to

display the relationship between two

variables

observations (x, y) on the X-Y plane

Scatter diagram of BMI and Birthweight

4

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Is there a linear relationship

between BMI and BW?

exploration of the relationship between

two quantitative variables

summarize this relationship by a straight

line drawn through the scatter of points

Simple Linear Regression

Although we could fit a line "by eye" e.g.

using a transparent ruler, this would be a

subjective approach and therefore

unsatisfactory.

An objective, and therefore better, way of

determining the position of a straight line is

to use the method of least squares.

Using this method, we choose a line such that

the sum of squares of vertical distances of all

points from the line is minimized.

Least-squares or regression line

These vertical distances, i.e., the distance

between y values and their corresponding

estimated values on the line are called

residuals

The line which fits the best is called the

regression line or, sometimes, the least-

squares line

The line always passes through the point

defined by the mean of Y and the mean of X

Linear Regression Model

in most of the statistical packages (and

also on some calculators) and is usually

referred to as linear regression

Estimated Regression Line

y = + x = 1.775351 + 0.0330187 x

Application of Regression Line

This equation allows you to estimate BW of

other newborns when the BMI is given.

e.g., for a mother who has BMI=40, i.e. X =

40 we predict BW to be

Correlation Coefficient, R

R is a measure of strength of the linear

association between two variables, x and y.

calculators can calculate R

Correlation Coefficient, R

R takes values between -1 and +1

between the two variables

R<0 implies an inverse linear relationship

The closer R comes to either +1 or -1, the

stronger is the linear relationship

Coefficient of Determination

R2 is another important measure of linear

association between x and y (0 R2 1)

variation in y which is explained by x

87.51% of the variation in BW is

explained by the independent variable x

(BMI).

Difference between Correlation

and Regression

strength of bivariate association

equation that estimates the values of y for

any given x

Limitations of the correlation

coefficient

Though R measures how closely the two

variables approximate a straight line, it

does not validly measures the strength of

nonlinear relationship

When the sample size, n, is small we also

have to be careful with the reliability of

the correlation

Outliers could have a marked effect on R

Causal Linear Relationship

The following data consists of age (in years) and

presence or absence of evidence of significant coronary

heart disease (CHD) in 100 persons.

Code sheet for the data is given as follows:

Serial Variable Variable description Codes/values

No. name

Age Group 1 = 20-29;

2. AGRP 2 = 30-34;

3 = 35-39;

4 = 40-44;

5 = 45-49;

6 = 50-54;

7 = 55-59;

8 = 60-69

3. AGE Actual age (in years) in years

1 = Present

ID AGRP AGE CHD

1 1 20 0

2 1 23 0

3 1 24 0

4 1 25 0

5 1 25 1

6 1 26 0

7 1 26 0

8 1 28 0

99 8 65 1

100 8 69 1

Is there any association between age and CHD?

By categorizing the age variable we will be able to

answer the above question the Chi-Square test of

independence

Age Group by CHD

Age Group Coronary Heart Disease Total

(CHD)

Present Absent

40 years 7 32 39

>40 years 36 25 61

Total 43 57 100

Chi-Square Tests

Sig. Sig. Sig.

Value df (2-sided) (2-sided) (1-sided)

Pearson b

17.610 1 .000

Chi-Square

Continuitya

15.919 1 .000

Correction

Likelihood Ratio 18.706 1 .000

Fisher's Exact

.000 .000

Test

Linear-by-Linear

17.434 1 .000

Association

N of Valid Cases 100

a. Computed only f or a 2x2 table

b. 0 cells (.0%) hav e expected count less than 5. The minimum expected

count is 17.16.

Relative Risk = 0.30 with 95% confidence interval (0.15,0.60)

What about a situation that you do not

want to categorize the age?

PLOT OF CHD by AGE

1.2

Presence of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD)

1.0

.8

.6

.4

.2

0.0

-.2

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Actually, we are interested in knowing whether the

probability of having CHD increases by age.

How do you do this?

Frequency Table of Age Group by CHD

Mid point CHD Mean (proportion)

=

Age Group of age n Absent Present {(Present)/n}

30-34 32.5 15 13 02 (02/15) = 0.13

35-39 37.5 12 09 03 (03/12) = 0.25

40-44 42.5 15 10 05 (05/15) = 0.33

45-49 47.5 13 07 06 (06/13) = 0.46

50-54 52.5 08 03 05 (05/08) = 0.63

55-59 57.5 17 04 13 (13/17) = 0.76

60-69 65 10 02 08 (08/10) = 0.80

Logistic Regression

Logistic Regression is used when the

outcome variable is categorical

The independent variables could be either

categorical or continuous

The slope coefficient in the Logistic

Regression Model has a relationship with

the OR

Multiple Logistic Regression model can be

used to adjust for the effect of other

variables when assessing the association

between E & D variables

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