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Probability and Statistics with

Reliability, Queuing and Computer


Science Applications: Chapter 6 on
Stochastic Processes

Kishor S. Trivedi
Visiting Professor
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering
Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur
What is a Stochastic Process?
Stochastic Process: is a family of random variables
{X(t) | t T} (T is an index set; it may be discrete or
continuous)
Values assumed by X(t) are called states.
State space (I): set of all possible states
Sometimes called a random process or a chance
process
Stochastic Process Characterization
At a fixed time t=t1, we have a random variable X(t1).
Similarly, we have X(t2), .., X(tk).
X(t1) can be characterized by its distribution function,

We can also consider the joint distribution function,

Discrete and continuous cases:


States X(t) (i.e. time t) may be discrete/continuous

State space I may be discrete/continuous


Classification of Stochastic Processes
Four classes of stochastic processes:

discrete-state process chain


discrete-time process stochastic sequence {Xn | n T}
(e.g., probing a system every 10 ms.)
Example: a Queuing System
Queue (waiting station)
Random arrivals
m
Inter arrival time Service time
servers
distribution fn. FY distribution fn. FS

Interarrival times Y1, Y2, (common dist. Fn. FY)


Service times: S1, S2, (iid with a common cdf FS)
Notation for a queuing system: FY /FS/m
Some interarrival/service time distributions types are:
M: Memoryless (i.e., EXP)

D: Deterministic

Ek: k-stage Erlang etc.

Hk: k-stage Hyper exponential distribution

G: General distribution

GI: General independent inter arrival times

M/M/1 Memoryless interarrival/service times with a single server


Discrete/Continuous Stochastic Processes
Nk: Number of jobs waiting in the system at the time of kth jobs
departure Stochastic process {Nk| k=1,2,}:
Discrete time, discrete state

Nk

k
Discrete
Continuous Time, Discrete Space
X(t): Number of jobs in the system at time t. {X(t) | t T} forms a
continuous-time, discrete-state stochastic process, with,

X(t)

Continuous
Discrete Time, Continuous Space
Wk: waiting time for the kth job. Then {Wk | k T} forms a Discrete-time,
Continuous-state stochastic process, where,

Wk

Discrete k
Continuous Time, Continuous Space
Y(t): total service time for all jobs in the system at time t. Y(t)
forms a continuous-time, continuous-state stochastic process,
Where,

Y(t)

t
Further Classification

(1st order distribution)

(2nd order distribution)

Similarly, we can define nth order distribution:

Formidable task to provide nth order distribution for all


n.
Further Classification (contd.)
Can the nth order distribution be simplified?
Yes. Under some simplifying assumptions:
Independence

As example, we have the Renewal Process


Discrete time independent process {Xn | n=1,2,} (X1, X2, .. are iid,
non-negative rvs), e.g., repair/replacement after a failure.
Markov process introduces a limited form of dependence
Markov Process
Stochastic proc. {X(t) | t T} is Markov if for any t0 < t1< < tn<
t, the conditional distribution satisfies the Markov property:
Markov Process
We will only deal with discrete state Markov
processes i.e., Markov chains
In some situations, a Markov chain may also exhibit
time-homogeneity

Future of process (probabilistically) determined by its


current state, independent of how it reached this
particular state; but in a non homogeneous case,
current time can also determine the future.
For a homogeneous Markov chain current time is also
not needed to determine the future.
Let Y: time spent in a given state in a hom. CTMC
Homogeneous CTMC-Sojourn time
Since Y, the sojourn time, has the memoryless prop.

This result says that for a homogeneous continuous


time Markov chain, sojourn time in a state follows
EXP( ) distribution (not true for non-hom CTMC)
Hom. DTMC sojourn time dist. Is geometric.
Semi-Markov process is one in which the sojourn
time in a state is generally distributed.
Bernoulli Process

A sequence of iid Bernoulli rvs, {Yi | i=1,2,3,..}, Yi =1 or 0


{Yi} forms a Bernoulli Process, an example of a renewal
process.
Define another stochastic process , {Sn | n=1,2,3,..}, where
Sn = Y1 + Y2 ++ Yn (i.e. Sn :sequence of partial sums)
Sn = Sn-1+ Yn (recursive form)
P[Sn = k | Sn-1= k] = P[Yn = 0] = (1-p) and,

P[Sn = k | Sn-1= k-1] = P[Yn = 1] = p

{Sn |n=1,2,3,..}, forms a Binomial process, an example


of a homogeneous DTMC
Renewal Counting Process
Renewal counting process: # of renewals
(repairs, replacements, arrivals) by time t: a
continuous time process:
If time interval between two renewals follows
EXP distribution, then Poisson Process
Note:
For a fixed t, N(t) is a random variable
(in this case a discrete random variable
known as the Poisson random variable)
The family {N(t), t 0} is a stochastic
process, in this case, the homogeneous
Poisson process
{N(t), t 0} is a homogeneous CTMC as
well
Poisson Process
A continuous time, discrete state process.
N(t): no. of events occurring in time (0, t]. Events may be,
1. # of packets arriving at a router port
2. # of incoming telephone calls at a switch
3. # of jobs arriving at file/compute server
4. Number of component failures
Events occurs successively and that intervals between these
successive events are iid rvs, each following EXP( )

1. : arrival rate (1/ : average time between arrivals)


2. : failure rate (1/ : average time between failures)
Poisson Process (contd.)
N(t) forms a Poisson process provided:
1. N(0) = 0
2. Events within non-overlapping intervals are independent
3. In a very small interval h, only one event may occur (prob.
p(h))

1. Letting, pn(t) = P[N(t)=n],

For a Poisson process, interarrival times follow EXP( )


(memoryless) distribution.
E[N(t)] = Var[N(t)] = t ; What about E[N(t)/t], as t infinity?
Merged Multiple Poisson Process Streams
Consider the system,

Proof: Using z-transform. Letting, = t,


Decomposing a Poisson Stream
Decompose a Poisson process using a prob. switch

N arrivals decomposed into {N1, N2, .., Nk}; N= N1+N2, ..,+Nk


Cond. pmf

Since,
The uncond. pmf
Generalizing the Poisson Process
Poisson Process

Non-Homogeneous Poisson
Process (NHPP)
Non-Homogeneous Poisson
Process (NHPP)
If the expected number of events per unit time, l, changes with
age (time), we have a non-homogeneous Poisson model. We
assume that:
1. If 0 t, the pmf of N(t) is given by:
PN t k mt / k!em t k 0, 1, 2, ...
k

where m(t) 0 is the expected number of events in the time


period [0, t]
2. Counts of events in non-overlapping time periods are
mutually independent.

m(t) : the mean value function. l(x) :the time-dependent rate of


occurrence of events or time-dependent failure rate
m(t ) 0 l (x) dx
t
NHPP(cont.)
Generalizing Poisson Process
Poisson Process

Non-Homogeneous Poisson Renewal Counting


Process (NHPP) Process
Renewal Counting Process
Poisson process EXP( ) distributed interarrival times.
What if the EXP( ) assumption is removed renewal proc.
Renewal proc. : {Xi | i=1,2,} (Xis are iid non-EXP rvs)
Xi : time gap between the occurrence of (i-1) st and ith event

Sk = X1 + X2 + .. + Xk time to occurrence of the kth event.

N(t)- Renewal counting process is a discrete-state, continuous-


time stochastic process. N(t) denotes no. of renewals in the
interval (0, t].
Renewal Counting Processes (contd.)
Sn t
For N(t), what is P(N(t) = n)?
tn
More arrivals possible

Renewal Counting Process Expectation


Let, m(t) = E[N(t)]. Then, m(t) = mean no.
of arrivals in time (0,t]. m(t) is called the
renewal function.
Renewal Density Function
Renewal density function:

For example, if the renewal interval X is EXP(),


then
d(t) = , t >= 0 and m(t) = t , t >= 0.
P[N(t)=n] = e t ( t)n/n! i.e Poisson pmf
Fn(t) will turn out to be n-stage Erlang
Alternating Renewal Process
1
I(t)

Operating Restoration

Time

Where:
Failure times T1, T2, are mutually independent with
a common distribution function W
Restoration times D1, D2, are mutually independent
with a common distribution function G
The sequences {Tn} and {Dn} are independent
Availability Analysis
Availability: is defined is the ability of a system to
provide the desired service.
If no repair/replacement,Availability(t)=Reliability(t)
If repairs are possible, then above is pessimistic.
MTBF

T1 D1 T2 D2 T3 D3 T4 D4 .

MTBF = E[Di+Ti+1] = E[Ti+Di]=E[Xi]=MTTF+MTTR


Availability Analysis (contd.)
renewal
Repair is completed with in this interval

x t

Two mutually exclusive situations:


1. System does not fail before time t A(t)
= R(t)
2.System fails, but the repair is completed
before time t
Therefore, A(t) = sum of these two
probabilities
Availability Expression
dA(x) : Incremental availability
Repair is completed with in this interval

0 x x+dx t
Renewed life time >= (t-x)

dA(x) = Prob(that after renewal, life time is > (t-x) &


that the renewal occurs in the interval (x,x+dx])
Availability Expression (contd.)
A(t) can also be expressed in the Laplace domain.

Since, R(t) = 1-W(t) or LR(s) = 1/s LW(s) = 1/s


Lw(s)/s

What happens when t becomes very large?

However,
Availability, MTTF and MTTR
Steady state availability A is:

Taking the expression of sLA(s) and taking the


limit via LHospital rule and using the moment
generating property of the LT, we get the
required result for the steady-state
A=MTTF/(MTTF+MTTR)
Availability Example
Assuming EXP( ) density fn for g(t) and w(t)
Generalizing Poisson Process
Bernoulli Process
Poisson Process
Homogeneous
Compound Poisson Renewal Counting Continuous Time
Process Process Markov Chain

Non-Homogeneous Poisson Homogeneous


Process (NHPP) Discrete Time
Markov Chain

Non-Homogeneous
Continuous Time Semi-Markov
Markov Chain Process

Markov Regenerative
Process