Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Maintenance Systems
Types:
Planned Maintenance
Routine and preventive maintenance
Scheduled overhauls involving shutdowns
Corrective maintenance
Other scheduled overhaul, repair, building, ..
Emergency / breakdown maintenance
Load: The sum of the two types
(uncertain)
Maintenance Planning
Why?
For more effective and efficient maintenance
operations resulting high quality operations
Why?
To achieve organizational objectives: Availability,
Reliability, quality, and delivery dates,
How?
Capacity Planning
Maintenance Planning and Scheduling
Capacity Planning
What?
The determination of the maintenance
resources needed to meet maintenance load.
Manpower (number and skills), overtime capacity,
contract maintenance, healthy level of backlog,
etc.
How?
Maintenance forecasting
Maintenance Forecasting
What?
The estimation and prediction of the
maintenance load
Why?
For better capacity planning
How?
Qualitative techniques
Quantitative techniques
Forecasting Methods Evaluation
Accuracy:
How good it predicts future
Flexibility:
The ability to adjust to changes in conditions
Selection Considerations
The purpose of the forecast
The time horizon for the forecast
The availability of the data for the
particular approach.
Steps for developing a quantitative forecasting
model
No Is historical Yes
Use qualitative data Use quantitative
forecasting. available? forecasting.
Generate Forecasts.
What?
Estimates of experts and their judgment.
How?
Systematically extract information from the mind of the
expert by using structured questionnaires or interviews.
Why?
Identify which variables influence the forecast and the impact
of each one.
How?
Use cause and effect diagrams and the Delphi method to
identify relationship among the variables.
Get an agreement on the magnitude of the variables.
Best case, expected case and worst case scenarios are
usually used to estimate the magnitude of the variables.
An interactive approach can be used to present arguments
to the expert, such as why his estimate differs from the
average estimate.
Quantitative Forecasting
Techniques
Time-series models
assume future values follow historical trends
Structural models
a predictor (independent) variable exists that
can provide a model or a functional
relationship that predicts the characteristic
under study
Simple Moving Averages
The average of the last n observations
Example 1
If the maintenance load in man-hours for the last 6 months is given as
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6
Maintenance Load 200 300 200 400 500 600
Find the load forecast for periods 7 and 8 using a 3 month moving
average.
400 500 600
x7 500
The forecasted load for month 7 using is 3
n n n
n tx (t ) t x (t )
t 1 i 1 t 1
b 2
n n
n t t
2
t 1 t 1
a x bt
Exponential Smoothing
where
= the forecast for period t and all future periods in
the case of a constant model.
x(t-1) = actual demand at period t-1
x ( t 1) = the forecasted value for t-1
= smoothing constant,
Seasonal Forecasting
1. Plot the data and visually determine clear time-series characteristics.
2. Determine the growth model and remove the growth component from
the data. One way to remove the growth component from the data is to
determine an average period for each cycle and divide each data value
by the average.
3. Determine if a significant seasonality is present in the data as it
appears with the growth component removed (de-growthed). The
seasonality index can be computed by averaging the de-growthed data
over the seasons (periods exhibiting similar behavior).
4. Deseasonalize the original data and analyze the growth factor. A plot
of the deseasonalized data will reveal the form of the growth
component. The deseasonalizing is accomplished by dividing each
data by the appropriate seasonal index.
5. Fit the data by some appropriate method, least squares regression,
exponential smoothing, etc.
6. A forecast for the future consists of a combination of seasonal and
growth trends.
Error Analysis
The following error measures are commonly used for error analysis
and evaluation of forecasting models.
1. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) N
x(t ) x(t )
t 1
MAD
N
2. Mean Squared Error (MSE) N
x(t ) x(t )
2
MSE t 1
MSPE x(t )
N t 1
Forecasting Maintenance Work
1 Overtime Co CO1
Subcontract Cs CS1
2 Overtime Co + Co CO2
Subcontract Cs + Cs CS2
3 Overtime Co +2 Co + Co CO3
Subcontract CS + 2 Cs +2 Cs CS3
Maintenance M1 M2 M3
load
Solution methods
The least cost heuristic can be used to find
a solution
Linear programming and integer
programming can be used for the optimum
solution.
Stochastic techniques such a simulation
can be used under highly stochastic
conditions.
Maintenance Planning and
Scheduling
Why?
minimizing the idle time of maintenance workers
maximizing the efficient use of work time, material, and
equipment
maintaining the operating equipment at a level that is responsive
to the need of production in terms of delivery schedule and
quality.
How?
1. Determine job content (may require site visits).
2. Develop work plan. This entails the sequence of activities in the job
and establishing the best methods and procedures to accomplish
the job.
3. Establish crew size for the job.
4. Plan and order parts and material.
5. Check if special equipment and tools are needed and
obtain them.
6. Assign workers with the appropriate craft skill.
7. Review safety procedures.
8. Set priorities (emergency, urgent, routine, and
scheduled) for all maintenance work.
9. Assign cost accounts.
10. Fill the work order.
11. Review backlog and develop plans for controlling it.
12. Predict the maintenance load using an effective
forecasting technique.
Who?
Qualifications:
full familiarity with production methods used through
the plant,
sufficient experience to enable him to estimate
labor, material and equipment needed to fill the
work order,
excellent communication skills,
familiarity with planning and scheduling tools,
preferable with some technical education.
Levels of Planning
1 Emergency Work should start immediately Work that has an immediate effect on safety,
environment, quality, or will shut down the
operation.
2 Urgent Work should start within 24 hours Work that is likely to have an impact on safety,
environment, quality, or shut down the operation.
3 Normal Work should start within 48 hours Work that is likely to impact the production within a
week.
5 Postponable Work should start when resources are Work that does not have an immediate impact on safety,
available or at shutdown period health, environment, or the production operations.
Scheduling techniques
Gantt charts
Critical Path method (CPM)
Project Evaluation and Review (PERT)
Math Programming
Stochastic Programming
Turn Around Maintenance
A periodic maintenance in which plants are shutdown to
allow for inspections, repairs, replacements and
overhauls that can be carried out only when the assets
(plant facilities) are taken out of service.