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Proba and stats

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Aliswag

Legista

Navarro

EXAMPLE 1:

An electronics company is planning to

introduce a new camera phone. The company

commissions a marketing report for each new

product that predicts either the success or the failure

of the product. Of new products introduced by the

company, 60% have been successes. Furthermore,

70% of their successful products were predicted to

be successes, while 40% of failed products were

predicted to be successes. Find the probability that

this new camera phone will be successful if its

success has been predicted.

SOLUTION

We are told that p(S) = 0.6 and therefore p() = 0.4.

Let P be the event that a randomly chosen product is predicted to be

successful.

0.4. We are asked for p(P). We

We are told that p(S)= 0.7 and p()=

use Bayes' theorem

EXAMPLE 2

many ways are there for three medals to be awarded if

ties are possible? (The runner or runners who nish

with the fastest time receive gold medals, the runner or

runners who nish with exactly one runner ahead

receive silver medals, and the runner or runners who

nish with exactly two runners ahead receive bronze

medals.)

SOLUTION

We can solve this problem by breaking it down into cases depending on the ties.

There are four basic cases.

(1) If there are unique gold and silver winners, then we can choose these winners

in 6 5 = 30 ways. Any remaining four runners can win the bronze medal.

There are 24 - 1 = 15 ways to choose these people, giving us 30 15 = 450

ways in all for this case.

(2) If there is a 2-way tie for first place, then there are C(6, 2) = 15 ways to

choose the gold medalists. Any remaining four runners can win the bronze

medal, so there are 24 - 1 = 15 ways to choose these people, giving us 15

15 = 225 ways in all for this case. (3)

(3) If there is a k-way tie for first with k 2: 3, then there are C(6,k) ways to choose

the gold medalists (there are no other medals in this case). This gives us C(6,

3) + C(6, 4) + C(6, 5) + C(6, 6) = 20 + 15 + 6 + 1 = 42 more possibilities.

(4) (4) The only other case is that there is a single gold medal winner and a k-way

tie for second with k 2: 2. We can choose the winner in 6 ways and the silver

medalists in 25 - C(5, 1) - C(5, 0) = 32 - 5 - 1 = 26 ways. This gives us 6 26 =

156 possibilities. Putting this all together, the answer is 450 + 225 + 42 +

156 = 873.

EXAMPLE 3:

person out to determine who will buy refreshments.

Each person ips a fair coin. If there is a person

whose outcome is not the same as that of any other

member of the group, this person has to buy the

refreshments. What is the probability that there is an

odd person out after the coins are ipped once?

SOLUTION

We can model this problem using the binomial distribution.

We have here n = 6 Bernoulli trials (the six coins being flipped), with

1

p = (the probability of heads, which we will arbitrarily call success).

2

There are two ways in which there could be an odd person out.

1. there could be five heads and one tail.

2. there could be one head and five tails.

either k = 5 or k = 1 . According to the formula developed in this section

EXAMPLE 4:

appears on the rst die is 2/7, and the probability

that a 3 appears on the second die is 2/7. Other

outcomes for each die appear with probability 1/7.

What is the probability of 7 appearing as the sum of

the numbers when the two dice are rolled?

SOLUTION:

EXPECTED VALUE: EXAMPLE 1

sum of the numbers on the dice is seven. What is the

expected number of times we roll the dice?

SOLUTION

has a geometric distribution with p = 1/6, since the

probability of getting a sum of 7 when a pair of dice

is rolled is 1/6. According to the theorem, expected

value is 1/(1/6) = 6.

EXPECTED VALUE:EXAMPLE 2:

cords. If three of the sets are chosen at random for

shipment to a hotel, how many sets with white cords

can the shipper expect to send to the hotel?

SOLUTION

Since x of the two sets with white cords and 3-x of the 10 other sets can be chosen

in 2 3

10

ways, three of the 12 sets can be chosen in 12 3

ways, and these 12 3

possibilities are presumably equiprobable, we find that the probability distribution

of X, the number of sets with white cords shipped to the hotel, is given by

f(x) =

for x= 0, 1, 2

In tabular form:

Now we have,

the given conditions

EXPECTED VALUE: EXAMPLE 3

with a fixed salary of $290. Her records from her

present job show that her weekly commissions have

the following probabilities:

SOLUTION

The expected value (expected income) from her present job is:

(0 x $0.05) + (0.15 x $100) + (0.25 x $200) + (0.45 x $300) + (0.1 x $400) = $240

then clearly she ought to change jobs.

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