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Tools for Modeling the

Water-Energy-Land-Climate Nexus
• Jack Sieber and David Yates
WEAP Developer, SEI
www.weap21.org
• Charlie Heaps
LEAP Developer, SEI
www.energycommunity.org
• David Yates
Water and Energy Systems, NCAR

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Talk Outline
• What are LEAP and WEAP?
• Brief overviews of LEAP and WEAP today
• Vision for integrating LEAP and WEAP
• Challenges in integrating LEAP and WEAP
• Examples of issues that can be modeled
• When will the new system be ready?

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org Both Tools:  General purpose model building. GHG Mitigation Assessment. data management and scenario analysis tools.  Transparent.  Environmental engineering perspective on long-term resource allocation problems.  Similar user interfaces and terminologies.• Water Evaluation And Planning • Long range Energy Alternatives System. academic and governmental institutions based in developing countries. flexible and user-friendly with low initial data requirements.weap21.  Available at no charge to non-profit. • Integrated watershed hydrology • Integrated Energy Planning and and water planning.  Common code and modeling language. Universities.  Integrated analysis across demand and supply.org • www. Utilities and NGOs: 100s of users worldwide.energycommunity. 3 . Consulting Companies. • www.  Widely used in Governments. Planning System.  Closely coordinated Application Programming Interfaces.

Structure & Calculations Macro- Demographics Economics Demand Analysis Statistical Differences Integrated Cost-Benefit Analysis Environmental Loadings (Pollutant Emissions) Transformation Analysis Stock Changes Resource Analysis Non-Energy Sector Emissions Analysis Environmental Externalities 4 .

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• Excludes nuclear power. • Requires radical improvements in energy efficiency. • Examines the role of sufficiency and greater equity among EU nations in helping promote a transition to a low GHG future. Europe’s Share of the Climate Challenge • A joint project of SEI and Friends of the Earth International for COP 15.org 6 . accelerated retirement of fossil fuels and a dramatic shift toward renewables. biofuels. and offsetting. 1990 levels. • A detailed sector-by-sector mitigation scenario for all 27 EU countries developed that achieves GHG reductions of 40% in 2020 and close to 90% in 2050 vs.ClimateShareEurope. carbon capture and storage (CCS). • Also examines Europe’s international obligations by using SEI’s Greenhouse Development Rights framework to assess fair contributions to a global climate effort. • Report available at: www.

SEI. Massachusetts Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) • The GWSA requires Massachusetts to achieve GHG reductions of between 10% and 25% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050. • The work is being conducted by a team lead by The Eastern Research Group (ERG) and including staff from Synapse Energy Economics. Abt Associates and Cambridge Systematics 7 . • To help meet these goals the State is using LEAP to develop a new energy and climate mitigation model that will examine what policies can best meet these targets.

technologies. sector by fuel). subsector. or aggregate (e. fuels and environmental effects). 400 kWh/yr) (8 million) (30%) (100%) (100%) Efficient (20%.g. end-use and device. drag & drop) • Structure can be detailed and end-use oriented. categories. Energy Demand Analysis in LEAP Households Urban Electrified Lighting Existing (80%. • Users can edit the tree on-screen using standard editing functions (copy. • Typically organized by sector. stock turnover modeling. 300kWh/yr) Refrigeration (80%) Cooking Rural Electrified (100%) (70%) (20%) Other (50%) Non-Electrified (80%) • Demands organized into a flexible hierarchical tree structure. paste.g.. • Icons indicate the types of data (e.) . • Supports multiple methods (useful & final energy analysis. etc.

transmission Output Process Feedstock Fuel and distribution.g Heat) • Calculates capacity expansion and process dispatch. Output Process Feedstock Fuel Fuel (efficiency) Feedstock Fuel • Demand-driven engineering-based Module Dispatch Feedstock Fuel simulation. imports. Output Fuel Process (efficiency) Feedstock Fuel Feedstock Fuel • Each process has one or more feedstock fuels and one or more Auxiliary Fuel Use Co-Product auxiliary fuels. Fuel (e. and resource Fuel (efficiency) Feedstock Fuel extraction. Transformation Analysis in LEAP Auxiliary Fuel Use • Energy conversion. exports and primary resource requirements. • Primarily annual calculations plus seasonal/time of dispatch for electric systems. Output Process Feedstock Fuel each containing one or more Fuel (efficiency) Feedstock Fuel processes. 9 . Output Fuel Process (efficiency) Feedstock Fuel • Basic hierarchy: modules (sectors). costs and environmental loadings.

water quality. hydropower and financial modules . reservoir. Water Evaluation And Planning System • Integrated watershed hydrology and water planning model • GIS-based. graphical drag & drop interface • Physical simulation of water demands and supplies • Additional simulation modeling: user-created variables. modeling equations and links to spreadsheets. scripts & other models • Scenario management capabilities • Groundwater.

Results Displayed on the Map 11 .

Scenario Explorer .

Examples of WEAP Analyses • Sectoral demand analyses • Land use & climate change impacts on hydrology • Water conservation • Water rights and allocation priorities • Groundwater and streamflow simulations • Reservoir operations • Hydropower generation • Financial analysis • Pollution tracking • Ecosystem requirements .

MODPATH – Surface water quality model • Qual2K – Semi-automated calibration • PEST • User-defined links to other models – California Department of Water Resources • Delta salinity model – East-Bay Municipal Utilities District • Reservoir operations model • Call WEAP using application programming interface (API) – Scenario analysis • CARS (RAND Corporation) – Model calibration • PEST – Sensitivity analysis. Perl . complex model building • Scripts: Visual Basic. Javascript. Python. Linking WEAP to Other Software • Customized/Programmed links – Groundwater flow and particle tracking models • MODFLOW.

Ghana/Brazil – California Water Plan. USA/Mexico – Mekong River. . Thailand/Cambodia/Vietnam/Laos – Jordan River. Texas. USA • Water Utility DSS Application – Case studies in Portland. California. USA – Yemen Second National Communication – Mali Second National Communication • Ecological Flows – Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection – Town of Scituate. and Philadelphia. USA – Guadiana River. USA – Massachusetts Water Resources Authority. Massachusetts. Oregon. California. Spain • Transboundary Water Policy – Okavango River. Syria/Israel/Jordan • Climate Change Studies – Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins. Austin. Pennsylvania. WEAP Applications • Water Systems Planning – Small Reservoirs Project. Angola/Namibia/Botswana – Lower Rio Grande. Massachusetts.

climate change •Current focus is water • Current focus is energy sufficiency and climate sufficiency and climate change adaptation. •Energy dimension provides • Water dimension provides new insights into mitigation new insights into how potential in the water sector. 16 . climate adaptation will affect energy systems. Cross Currents: Bringing Together Different Perspectives Water Energy •Climate change is a key • Energy systems drive driver of water systems. change mitigation.

Potential Applications • Hydropower • Cooling Water for Thermal Energy Systems • Desalination • Water and Land-use for Biofuels • Energy for Pumping • Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation 17 .

• Calculations run iteratively within each year of each scenario – seeks convergence on a consistent set of results. demographic and climate assumptions 18 . end year. Integrating LEAP & WEAP • Tightly coupled system where LEAP and WEAP run together and are dynamically linked. • Requires common assumptions on: – Scenarios – Seasonal/time of day time slices – Geographic boundaries – E. discount rates. base year. economic. • Each tool requests data or results from the other..g.

19 . Design Goals • Create a system that is flexible enough to model a wide variety of energy-water issues. • Keep the systems easy to use for our existing target audience. • Presents issues in a way that is clearly understandable and meets the needs of both energy and water planners.

Linking Water and Energy Issues Groundwater depletion Water quality Limited hydropower & cooling Unmet ecological flows Costs water. Increased energy requirements Insufficient water for hydro and for desalination. less water- Water conservation intensive cooling Hydropower energy & cooling water requirements Fuel Use Reduced water demands GHGs Local air pollution Costs 20 . Energy efficiency Still insufficient water--further enhance supply with desalination. Electricity demand cooling. even with increased groundwater pumping. increased energy requirements for pumping. Water Energy Supply Demand Water Energy Demand Supply Hydropower & fossil Water requirements for generation hydropower & thermal cooling Wind & solar.

Status 21 .

Thanks 22 .