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# Bayes Rule

## In probability theory and statistics, Bayes

theorem describes the probability of an event,
based on prior knowledge of conditions that
might be related to the event.
Suppose a drug test is 99% sensitive and 99% specific. That is, the
test will produce 99% true positive results for drug users and 99%
true negative results for non-drug users. Suppose that 0.5% of
people are users of the drug. If a randomly selected individual
tests positive, what is the probability that he is a user?
1. In a certain plant, three machines, A, B, C makes 30%,
45%, 25%, respectively of the products. It is known
that from past experiences that 2%, 3% and 2% of the
product made by each machine, respectively are
defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected,

## a) what is the probability that it is defective.

b) If a product was chosen and found out to be defective.
What is the probability that it was made by machine
C?
Make an assumption:
Let D = defective products A = product for machine A ; B = product for
machine B ; C = product for machine C
2. The UAAP AdU baseball team plays 60 percent
of its games at night and 40 percent in the
daytime. It wins 55 percent of its night games
but only 35 percent of its day games. You read
in the paper that the AdU baseball team won
their last game against the FEU baseball team.
What is the probability that it was played at
night?
3. There are 3 urns A, B and C each containing a
total of 10 marbles of which 2, 4 and 8
respectively are red. A pack of cards is cut and a
marble is taken from one of the urns depending
on the suit shown - a black suit indicating urn A, a
diamond urn B, and a heart urn C. What is the
probability a red marble is drawn?
4. A customer has approached a bank for a loan. Without further
information, the bank believes there is a 4% chance that the
customer will default on the loan. The bank can run a credit check
on the customer. The check will yield either a favorable or an
unfavorable report. From past experience, the bank believes that
P(favorable report being received | customer will default) = 0.03
and P(favorable report being received | customer will not default)
= 0.99.
a) What is the probability that a favorable report will be received?
b) If a favorable report is received, what is the probability that the
customer will default on the loan?
5. On Consider a shopper will choose either brand A or brand B.
On each purchase, the probability that he will choose the
same brand that he chose on his last preceding purchase is
1/3, and the probability that he will switch brands is 2/3.
Suppose that on his first purchase the probability that he will
choose brand A is 1/4 and the probability that he will choose
brand B is 3/4. What is the probability that his second
purchase will be brand B?
6. A firm is accustomed to training operators who do
certain time in production line. Those operators who
attended the training course are known to be able to
meet their production quotas 90% of the time. New
operator who did not take the training course only
meets their quotas 65% of the time. Fifty percent of
new operators attended the course. Given that a new
operator meets his production quota, what is the
probability that he attended the training course?
7. Two urns contain colored balls. Urn 1 contains 4
blue, 3 green and 5 red balls. Urn 2 contains 6 blue,
2 green and 3 red balls. A ball is selected at random
from urn 1 and transferred to urn 2. A ball is then
selected at random from urn 2. If the ball selected
from urn 2 is red, what is the probability that the
ball transferred from urn 1 was:(i) red? (ii)
blue?