Baye’s Rule

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Baye’s Rule

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theorem describes the probability of an event,

based on prior knowledge of conditions that

might be related to the event.

Suppose a drug test is 99% sensitive and 99% specific. That is, the

test will produce 99% true positive results for drug users and 99%

true negative results for non-drug users. Suppose that 0.5% of

people are users of the drug. If a randomly selected individual

tests positive, what is the probability that he is a user?

1. In a certain plant, three machines, A, B, C makes 30%,

45%, 25%, respectively of the products. It is known

that from past experiences that 2%, 3% and 2% of the

product made by each machine, respectively are

defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is

randomly selected,

b) If a product was chosen and found out to be defective.

What is the probability that it was made by machine

C?

Answer:

Make an assumption:

Let D = defective products A = product for machine A ; B = product for

machine B ; C = product for machine C

2. The UAAP AdU baseball team plays 60 percent

of its games at night and 40 percent in the

daytime. It wins 55 percent of its night games

but only 35 percent of its day games. You read

in the paper that the AdU baseball team won

their last game against the FEU baseball team.

What is the probability that it was played at

night?

3. There are 3 urns A, B and C each containing a

total of 10 marbles of which 2, 4 and 8

respectively are red. A pack of cards is cut and a

marble is taken from one of the urns depending

on the suit shown - a black suit indicating urn A, a

diamond urn B, and a heart urn C. What is the

probability a red marble is drawn?

4. A customer has approached a bank for a loan. Without further

information, the bank believes there is a 4% chance that the

customer will default on the loan. The bank can run a credit check

on the customer. The check will yield either a favorable or an

unfavorable report. From past experience, the bank believes that

P(favorable report being received | customer will default) = 0.03

and P(favorable report being received | customer will not default)

= 0.99.

a) What is the probability that a favorable report will be received?

b) If a favorable report is received, what is the probability that the

customer will default on the loan?

5. On Consider a shopper will choose either brand A or brand B.

On each purchase, the probability that he will choose the

same brand that he chose on his last preceding purchase is

1/3, and the probability that he will switch brands is 2/3.

Suppose that on his first purchase the probability that he will

choose brand A is 1/4 and the probability that he will choose

brand B is 3/4. What is the probability that his second

purchase will be brand B?

6. A firm is accustomed to training operators who do

certain time in production line. Those operators who

attended the training course are known to be able to

meet their production quotas 90% of the time. New

operator who did not take the training course only

meets their quotas 65% of the time. Fifty percent of

new operators attended the course. Given that a new

operator meets his production quota, what is the

probability that he attended the training course?

7. Two urns contain colored balls. Urn 1 contains 4

blue, 3 green and 5 red balls. Urn 2 contains 6 blue,

2 green and 3 red balls. A ball is selected at random

from urn 1 and transferred to urn 2. A ball is then

selected at random from urn 2. If the ball selected

from urn 2 is red, what is the probability that the

ball transferred from urn 1 was:(i) red? (ii)

blue?

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