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Part I: Probability Distributions for Discrete Variables

1

**What is a Probability Distribution?
**

Examples of Probability Distribution

• Precisely, a probability distribution is

0.3

•a relative frequency distribution of all

0.25

•possible outcomes of an experiment

Probability P(x)

0.2

**Income Relative frequency P(x) 0.15
**

Under $20,000 0.2380 0.1

$20,000 to < $40,000 0.2607 0.05

$40,000 to < $60,000 0.1941 0

Under $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 Above

$60,000 to < $80,000 0.1408 $20,000 to < to < to < to < $100,000

$80,000 to < $100,000 0.0907 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000

Income

Above $100,000 0.0757

1

0.9

(a)

0.8

Probability P(I & j) 0.7

Results = Results = 0.6

Positive Negative 0.5

(PO) (NE) Total 0.4

Woman is pregnant (Y) 0.85 0.05 0.9 0.3

Woman is not pregnant (N) 0.03 0.07 0.1

0.2

Total 0.88 0.12 1

0.1

0

Y & PO Y & NE N & PO N & NE

(b) Joint Events (i & j) 2

Different types of Probability Distribution

**Probability distributions of Probability distributions of
**

Discrete Variables Continuous Variables

P(x) P(x)

0 1 2 3 4 x 80 80.5 81 81.5 82.0 82.5 x

Examples: Examples:

**- Binomial distribution - Uniform distribution
**

- Poisson distribution - Normal distribution

(b)

(a)

3

g.8. 1. 5.g.Random variable: A variable is a characteristic that varies from one component of a population to another. It becomes a random variable when its values vary randomly or by chance Discrete random variable: A variable that can take only integer values (e. 10.4) 4 . and 12.6. 5. 0. and 2) Continuous random variable: A variable that can take any value in a specified interval falling within its plausible range (e. 8.

Human weight 3.Working problem 5. Number of graduating students 5.1: Decide whether the following random variables x are discrete or continuous. The number of eggs that a hen lays in a day 8. House area in square feet 7. Human height 2. Number of student in a stat class 6. The number of emergency room patients in one day in a hospital 5 . Explain your answer 1. Temperature 4.

which lists each possible value of a discrete random variable and its associated probability.The probability distribution of discrete variables It is a relative frequency distribution. It should also satisfy the criteria: 6 .

25 5 0.05 3 0. 7 . the sum of probabilities which is not equal one.The probability distribution of discrete variables Example: Does the Table below describe a probability distribution? probabilities p(x) corresponding to a random variable x x P(x) 0 0.15 1 0. Because the sum requirement is not satisfied.25 4 0. which satisfies the condition: • However.1 Solution: •The probability values here are less than one.1 does not describe a probability distribution.3 6 0. we conclude that Table 5.2 2 0.

what are the probabilities of zero head.Example: In an experiment in which two coins are tossed. and two heads? Construct a probability distribution illustrating this experiment. H 1 1/4 3 H. Solution: Outcomes resulting from tossing two coins Trial number Possible outcomes x = number of heads P(x) 1 T. one head. what are the possible outcomes? If the outcome of interest is ‘head’. H 2 1/4 Probability values associated with the number of heads x = number of P(x) heads 0 1/4 1 1/2 2 1/4 8 . T 0 1/4 2 T. T 1 1/4 4 H.

9 .

or 2 determine a probability distribution? Explain why? Working problem 5. where x can be 0. Construct a probability distribution representing this survey. or 5 determine a probability distribution? Explain why? (b) Does P(x) = x/5. or 3 determine a probability distribution? Explain why? (c) Does P(x) = x/3. 2.3: (a) Does P(x) = x/6.5 920 3 360 3. 1. The first column represents the number of bathrooms.5 840 2 330 2. and the second column represents the number of houses.Working problem 5. houses in a certain city were classified by the number of bathrooms available. The results of this survey are shown below.5 420 10 . Number of bathrooms per Number of houses house 1 400 1. where x can be 0 or 1 .4: In a survey conducted by a Real-Estate broker. where x can be 0 or 1 .

The mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of discrete variables The mean of a discrete random variable x (also called the expected value of x) is expressed by: The standard deviation of a discrete variable x is expressed by: 11 .

33 2000 1 3.1 2 310 0.2 5 450 0.225 1. Calculations of mean of a discrete variable Bedrooms per house Number of houses P(x) xP(x) 1 200 0.055 0.3 1.125 6 110 0.56 12 .1 0. calculate the mean of the discrete variable representing the number of bedrooms per house.155 0.31 3 330 0.165 0. The mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of discrete variables Example: For the data of the Table below.495 4 600 0.

1 0.8 5 450 0.165 0.1 2 310 0.155 0.125 25 5.56 14.61 13 .3 1.495 9 1.62 3 330 0.625 6 110 0. Number of Number of rooms/house houses P(x) xP(x) x2 x2P(x) 1 200 0.98 2000 1 3.055 0.33 36 1.485 4 600 0.225 1.31 4 0. calculate the standard deviation of the discrete variable representing the number of bedrooms per house.1 1 0.Example: For the data of the Table below.2 16 4.

5 In a survey conducted by a real-estate broker.Working Problem: 5. If a house is picked from this area randomly: . The results of this survey are shown in the table below.What is the chance that it will have 3 bathrooms? . houses in a certain city were classified by the number of full bathrooms available.What is the chance that it will have less than 3 bathrooms? Frequency of houses by the number of full bathrooms Number of full bathrooms per house Number of houses 1 45 2 410 3 320 4 38 5 12 14 .

Calculate the standard deviation of the number of bathrooms per house.Calculate the mean number of bathrooms per house .6 In a survey conducted by a real-estate broker. houses in a certain city were classified by the number of full bathrooms available.Working Problem: 5. The results of this survey are shown in the table below. Frequency of houses by the number of full bathrooms Number of full bathrooms per house Number of houses 1 45 2 410 3 320 4 38 5 12 15 . .

C. Determine the probability distribution of each random variable M. Determine the expected value of each random variable.000. An investment consultant offered this person five investment packages the return of each will depend on whether the economy next year will be fair or good.7: A person plans to invest a $100. c. S.Working problem 5. and R b. According to the investment consultant. Which investment has the best expected payoff? Which has the worst? 16 . next year’s economy has a 45% chance of being good and a 55% chance of being fair. a. The table below lists the anticipated return on each investment.

The binomial probability distribution Or Parameters of the Binomial Distribution. n & P The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are: 17 .

product defects. there are n identical trials. •The probability of success is denoted by p and that of failure by q or (1-p). In other words. •Binomial trials are independent. where n is a positive integer. This means that the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of the next trial or any other trial. 18 . •Each trial has two and only two outcomes (success or failure. •In a binomial experiment.Basic characteristics of the binomial distribution are as follows: •The binomial distribution is the most appropriate probability distribution for sampling from an infinitely large population. the given experiment is repeated n times. Examples of variables that are best approximated by a binomial distribution include success and failure in business. x represents the number of nonconforming items found in a random sample of n items. head or tail. and head or tail in tossing a coin. pass or fail. •Each repetition of a binomial experiment is called a trial or a Bernoulli trial (after Jacob Bernoulli). where p represents the fraction of defective or nonconforming items in the population. etc). rejected items. passing or failing a course.

The shape of the binomial distribution 19 .

7). New Jersey.Example: There are four flights daily from Atlantic City Airport. … x P(x) 0 0.24010 20 . Georgia. • What is the probability that none of the flights will arrive on time tomorrow? • What is the probability that exactly two of the flights will be on time? Solution: If we are willing to assume that the variable arrival time follows a binomial distribution. In symbols.07560 2 0. p) or x ~ b(4. and the two parameters n and p.26460 3 0. x= 0. to Atlanta Airport. via Air Tran Airline.2.70.41160 4 0. • Construct a binomial distribution of the random variable “number of on-time arrivals”. 0. we can construct this distribution using the binomial equation. the x variable is described as x ~ b(n.00810 1 0.1. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives on time is 0.

p = 0.40 0.10 0.30 0.70 4 0.00 0 0.0081 The probability that exactly two of the flights will be on time = P(x=2) = 0.50 0.90 2 0.26460 0. Binomial distribution (n = 4.80 3 0.07560 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 Number of flights on time (x) Binomial Distributions of flight on-time arrivals The probability that none of the flights will arrive on time tomorrow = P(x= 0) = 0.7) x P(x) 1.00810 1 0.24010 0.26460 (about 26% chance that exactly two flights will be on time) 21 .60 P(x) 0.41160 0.20 0.

7 22 . what is the expected value of arrival on time. and what is the extent of variation (variance)? Solution: n = 4.Example: Using the results of the previous Example. p = 0.

Working problem 5. .What is the expected value and the variance? . Air .Construct a binomial probability distribution . Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.8: There are three flights daily from Charlotte. via U.What is the probability that exactly two of the flights are late today? 23 .10.What is the probability that none of the flights are late today? -What is the probability that exactly one of the flights is late today? . NY (JFK).S. NC . to New York.

Working problem 5.What is the probability that 2 heads will turn up? -What is the probability that five heads will turn up? . construct a binomial probability distribution. .9: For the experiment of tossing a coin 6 times.What is the probability that no heads will turn up? 24 .What is the expected value and the variance? .

Construct a binomial distribution of this variable . .10: A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units used for automobiles finds that on average 1. If we let x be the random variable representing the number of failing brake units. This finding represents historical value based on routine inspection of 100 units daily.Determine the expected value and the variance of failure of brakes 25 .2% of the units fails at high-speed accelerated test.Working problem 5.

What is the probability that less than two brake units will fail? . This finding represents historical value based on routine inspection of 100 units daily.2% of the units fails at high-speed accelerated test.Working problem 5. If we let x be the random variable representing the number of failing brake units: .What is the probability that more than 4 brake units will fail? 26 .What is the probability that exactly one brake unit will fail? .11: A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units used for automobiles finds that on average 1.

Suppose the probability that any bus arrives late is 0. -Calculate the mean and the variance 27 .20.12: There are five bus trips from JFK Airport to Newark Airport.Working Problem 5.Construct a binomial distribution describing the random event of bus late arrivals. .

What is the probability that none of the bus trips will be late today? What is the probability that one of the bus trips will be late today? 28 .13: There are five bus trips from JFK Airport to Newark Airport. Suppose the probability that any bus arrives late is 0.Working Problem 5.20.

The reasons are: • A fixed number of trials = n = 10 • The trials are independent (the answer of one question is independent of the answer of another question) • Each trial is associated with two outcomes. the probability remains constant n = 10. formulate the probability function • What are the values of the two parameters. Since you were not prepared for the quiz. C. and D).Example: You enter the class to find out that the teacher is given a previously unannounced quiz of 10 multiple-choice questions. you decided to make a random guess.25 Your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly: 29 . B. each with one correct answer out of possible 4 answer choices (A. since the chance of a correct answer is one out of four. p = 0. correct or wrong • Each trial is associated with fixed probability p = 1/4. • Does this situation reflect a binomial experiment? If the answer is ‘yes’. Thus. n and p of the binomial distribution? • What is your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly? Solution: This experiment fully satisfies the binomial model.

….00000 1.01622 0.52559 3 0.369 standard deviation 8 0.15 10 0.28157 0.Example: In the previous example.20 1.05840 0.05 0.25 and n = 10 30 .00000 0.10 0.00309 0. or ten questions correctly.24403 2 0.77588 4 0. two.30 5 0.99997 9 0.00003 1.500 expected value 7 0. Binomial distribution of multiple-choice quiz x P(x) Cumulative probability 0 0.875 variance 0.00039 0. three.05631 1 0.99649 0.98027 6 0.99958 1.05631 0.14600 0. Construct the Binomial Distribution. find the probabilities of answering one.00000 P(x) 0.92187 0.25 2.25028 0..00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 x Binomial Distributions at p = 0.18771 0.

Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be none . .14 Based on a worldwide mortality statistics.Working problem 5.Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be at most two .Determine the expected value and the variance of the number alive at age 70 31 30+ 60+ 70+ .Determine the probability distribution of the number alive at age 70 . Suppose that five people aged 30 are selected at random. there is about 60% chance that a person aged 30 will be alive at age 70.Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be at least three .Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be exactly two .

$150.Working problem 5. The prices for the first 4 tickets are $200. what would be your expected value of gain? Working problem 5. and $50. . n and p of the binomial distribution? Calculate the expected value and the variance. If you buy one ticket.What is your chance to answer less than 3 questions correctly? -What is your chance to answer more than 15 questions correctly? 32 .16: In a multiple-choice exam of 20 questions. would this represent a binomial experiment? If the answer is ‘yes’. $100.What is your chance to answer exactly 2 questions correctly? . If a student is answering these questions randomly.15: A charity for deaf and blind offered 1000 tickets each of $5 to collect money. formulate the probability function What are the values of the two parameters. Only the first 4 draws win prices. 5 possible answers were assigned for each question and only one answer is correct.

If a student is answering these questions randomly. how many questions would he/she be expected to answer? Working problem 5. Would you consider his attempts as a binomial experiment? If the answer is ‘yes”. A student made a serious attempt at the first 40 questions.Working problem 5. This student typically answer multiple-choice tests with a rate of success of about 80%. How many questions will this student be expected to answer correctly out of the first 40 questions? If the same student then attempted to answer the remaining 20 questions randomly.18: In a multiple-choice exam of 60 questions. 4 possible answers were assigned for each question and only one answer is correct. 4 possible answers were assigned for each question and only one answer is correct.17: In a multiple-choice exam of 100 questions. what is the expected number of questions that this student will answer correctly out of these 20 questions? Estimate the total number of questions that this student and predict his letter grade? Note: G ≥ 90 = A 80 ≤ G < 90 = B 70 ≤ G < 80 = C 33 60 ≤ G < 70 = D .

00338 P(X) 0.40 0.30 0.85 3 0.Using Microsoft Excel® to Perform Binomial Distribution Analysis Example: If 15% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective.10 0. bolts will be defective? Binomial distribution (n = 3. (c) less than 2. p = 0.00 0 1 2 3 X 34 .50 2 0. 1.P = 0. what is the probability that out of 3 bolts selected at random (a) 0.15) 0.70 0.61413 1 0. (b) 1.20 0.32513 0.05738 P = 0.60 X P(X) Solution: 0 0.15.

Using Microsoft Excel® to Perform Binomial Distribution Analysis Example: P = 0.15. q = 0.85 1 P( x 0) ? P( x 1) ? P( x 2) ? • Go to Excel Spreadsheet • Click fx on the button bar 2 • Select Statistical from the 3 “Or select a category” drop down list box • Select BINODIST from the “Select a function” list • Click OK 4 35 .

e. or “TRUE” for getting cumulative probability 5 6 36 . and False in the Cumulative Window.85 0.614 type 0 in the Number_s window.15 0.15. we use “FALSE” for getting the exact probability value (i.15 in the 0 Probability_s window. Example: P = 0. 0. 3 P( x 0) 0. q = 0. • You should be able to see the value of the P(x = 0) as illustrated by the ellipse in the Figure. P(x=0) or P(x=1)). or you can Click Ok and the value will be presented Note: Under Cumulative. 0 3 and 3 in the Trials Window.85 (a) P( x 0) ? (b) P( x 1) ? (c) P( x 2) ? •To answer Part (a) of this Example.

P(x=0) or P(x=1)). or “TRUE” for getting cumulative probability P( x 2) P( x 0) P( x 1) 0. we use “FALSE” for getting the exact probability value (i.939 37 .15 0.325 1 2 1 Note: Under Cumulative.e. 3 P( x 1) 0.325 0.85 0.614 0.

If we let x be the random variable representing the number of failing brake units: .What is the probability that exactly one brake unit will fail? .2% of the units fails at high-speed accelerated test.Working problem 5.What is the probability that more than 4 brake units will fail? 38 .What is the probability that less than two brake units will fail? .19 (Use Excel to solve this problem): A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units used for automobiles finds that on average 1. This finding represents historical value based on routine inspection of 100 units daily.

each with one correct answer out of possible 4 answer choices (A.Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer exactly 2 questions correctly? . you decided to make a random guess.Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer no questions correctly? 39 . Since you were not prepared for the quiz. B. and D).Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly? .20: You enter the class to find out that the teacher is given a previously unannounced quiz of eight multiple-choice questions. .Working problem 5. C.

. • The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution are given by: np 2 np 40 . l is the x! expected average number of events per interval.7182818 is the base of x 0.. etc. e P(x) is the probability of x events in a P(x) given time or space interval.)..1. per unit area.g. per shipment.2. etc. the Poisson distribution is often used to model the events of largely unlikely failure or rare product defects. What is a Poisson Probability Distribution? • A probability distribution used for modeling discrete variables with the concern being with the number of events occurring per a given time or space interval. per hour. • The probability of an event described by a Poisson distribution is given by: x where x is the number of target events. and e = 2.g.. per box.3. the natural logarithm system. • In most applications. • The interval may represent any duration of time (e. per shift.) or any specified region (e. per week.

00006 .02160 at x 1 P(1) 0.0498 1 0.....00000 P(X) e (3) e at x 7 P (7 ) 0..16803 x e (3) 0 e 3 5 0..10 15 0.00000 17 0.00270 x e (3) 2 e 3 0. Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications Example: The mean number of accidents on the job per month at a certain company is 3.22404 x! 4! 4 3 2 1 3 0.......00810 x! 1! 9 0. 13 0..14936 P(x 4) 0.00022 x! 2! 0..25 10 0.15 x 7 3 14 0..1494 Poisson distribution (= 3) 8 0.224 11 0.. Model this variable by a Poisson distribution and determine the probability that in any given month four accidents will occur at this company? X P(X) x 0 0.00081 at x 2 P(2) 0.10082 at x 0 P ( 0) 0....05 distribution are: 0.168 2 0.00001 0.00000 x! 7! 16 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 3 X 2 3 41 .....05041 x e (3)1 e 3 7 0.0216 0.22404 4 0......00000 The mean and variance of this 0..20 12 0..04979 e (3) e4 3 81 0.0498 x! 0! 6 0.

0389 0.5 7. From past experience.What is the chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 5 customers during the added period? .5 7.5 people. = 7.5 7. the restaurant found that on average.5 2 e 7. What advice would you give this restaurant? To assist you in this task.5 0 x! 1 [ P ( x 0) P ( x 1) P ( x 3) P ( x 4) P ( x 5)] 7.0729 0.1094] 042. the number of people showing up for breakfast service from 10:00 am to 10:30 am is 7.55 e 7..51 e 7.00414 0.50 e 7.7585 . • The restaurant will allow the service to be extended if they can maintain more than 5 customers coming for breakfast service in this period. Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications Example: A fast-food restaurant was trying to extend breakfast service from 10 am to 10:30 am to allow more customers.53 e 7. 6 x! or 5 x e P(x 5) 1 P(x 5) 1 .5 4 e 7..0156 0.5 7.. to be served breakfast.5 1[ ] 0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 1 [0.What is the chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 10 customers during the added period? x e P(x 5) P ( x 6) P ( x 7) P ( x 8) . .000553 0. particularly those who wake up late.5 7.

16 0.12 0.7585 There is more than 75% chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 5 customers within the added half hour breakfast service.08 0.14 0. Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications Example (Cont’d): = 7.5) 0.10 P(X) 0.04 0.138 Poisson distribution (= 7.06 0.00 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 X There is a 75% chance the restaurant will maintain more than 5 customers and 14% chance it may even have more than 10 customers.02 0. 43 .86224 0. The chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 10 customers during the added period: P(x 10) 1 P(x 10) 1 0.5 P(x 5) 0.

Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications Example: Suppose that a new knitting machine used by a mill only fails to operate one time every 10 hours.1failure per hour. of 0.00000 1.10 0.99985 3 0.00452 0.70 1 0.20 0. This leads to a failure rate.00000 P(X) 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 X 44 .99532 0. .00015 1.60 2 0.30 0.00000 0.12 e 0.1) 1.40 0.50 4 0.1 P(x 2) 0.90484 0.90 Cumulative 0.90484 0.00000 5 0.09048 0.0045 x! 2! Poisson distribution ( = 0.80 X P(X) probability 0 0.00000 1.00 0. What is the probability of two failures occurring randomly during the 10 hour period? x e 0.

21: The mean number of on-site accidental deaths per a period of five years in an electric-service company is 1. determine the probability that in any given five-year period.22: The mean number of car accidents in Peachtree street in Atlanta. What is the mean and variance of this distribution? Working problem 5. Assuming that a Poisson distribution can best represent this random variable. three on-site accidental deaths will occur? Construct the Poison distribution describing this variable. determine the probability that in any given month.Working problem 5. Assuming that a Poisson distribution can best represent this random variable.0. What is the mean and variance of this distribution? 45 . 5 or more car accidents will occur? Construct the Poison distribution describing this variable. Georgia is 3 per month.

Suppose on average. -What is the expected value and variance of the number of on-time flights per week? .What is the chance that the number of on-time flights per week will exceed 5? 46 . Construct a Poisson distribution of this random variable. this number is about 2.Working Problem 5.23: Assume on-time flight per week is a rare situation for a particular airline.

Find the probability that in a sample of 10 bolts chosen at random exactly two will be defective? Calculate this probability using Binomial and Poisson modeling of the variable.20 0.10 (0.15 0.90) 8 0.1839 0. 0.40 0.30 x! 2! P(X) 0.30 0.35 n = 10.1 0.Poisson & Binomial Probability Distribution-Applications Example: Suppose that historically a machine producing bolts yields a rate of 10% defective bolts.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 X 47 .05 0. p = 0. p = 0.05 0.1937 2 0.1 1 Poisson distribution ( = 1) P( x 2) x 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Using Poisson distribution: X np 10 0.1) Using Binomial distribution: 0.15 x 2 0.25 0.40 2 1 e 1e 0.10 0.35 0.45 Binomial distribution (n = 10.25 P(X) n 10 P( x 2) p x q n x 0.20 0.10 0.

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis

**Example: If the number of some type of metal defects is assumed to follow a
**

Poisson distribution with a mean value 1 per 1000 square yard.

•What is the probability of finding 2 defects?

•What is the probability of finding at most 2 defects?

•What is the probability of finding at least one defect?

Manual Calculations:

P( X 2)

x

x

e 12 e 1

p(2) 0.184

0 x! 2!

x

x

e 10 e 1 11 e 1 12 e 1

P( X 2) p(0) p(1) p(2)

0 x! 0! 1! 2!

0.368 0.368 0.184 0.920

p( x 1) 1 p( x 1) 1 p( x 0) 1 0.368 0.632

48

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis ( =1)

1

**•Go to Excel Spreadsheet
**

•Click fx on the button bar

•Select Statistical from the “Or

select a category” drop down list

box

•Select POISSON from the 2

“Select a function” list

•Click OK

3

4

49

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis ( =1)

**•Type 2 at the X window, 1 in Mean
**

window, and False in the

Cumulative Window.

•You should be able to see the

value of the P(x = 2) as illustrated

by the circle in Figure 5.16. or you

can Click Ok and the value will be

5 presented

P( X 2) e

x

x

12 e 1

p(2) 0.184 6

0 x! 2!

50

P( X 2) e x x 10 e 1 11 e 1 12 e 1 0 x! 0! 1! 2! p( x 1) 1 p( x 1) 1 p( x 0) 1 0.632 51 .368 0.

02 Binomial Distribution USING EXCEL® 52 . Generate a Binomial distribution of nonconforming drives using a sample size of 400 drives. n = 400.Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Discrete Probability Distribution Simulation Example: Suppose that a manufacturer typically finds 2% defects in hard drive units produced for personal computers. and p = 0.

1 2 3 Data Data Analysis Random Number Generation 53 .

02 select an output area 54 . 5 4 Select one variable say 1000 random numbers Select Binomial n = 400. p =0.

Perform Descriptive Statistics 7 6 1000 random numbers each representing number of defects in 400 inspected Samples 55 .

02)(0.737 • This is approximately equal to the theoretical : npq (400)(0.98) 2. Average Number of Defects ≈ 8 • This leads to average probability = 8/400 = 0.8 Note 56 .02 (the p value) • The Standard Deviation = 2.

Perform Histogram 10 9 8 57 .

Perform Histogram 58 .

You can then make a graph using Excel graph features Note 59 .Convert Histogram into a Probability Distribution To convert a histogram to a probability Distribution: 1. Calculate p(x) for each value of x By dividing the frequency of each x by The total frequency (1000). Form a column labeled p(x) 2. 3.

2 defects when inspecting random samples of constant size of 60 disks. = 1.2 Poisson Distribution USING EXCEL® 60 . Using Excel Spreadsheet.Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Discrete Probability Distribution Simulation Example: If a company producing notebook computers historically finds an average of 1. simulate the probability distribution of defects.

Random Number Generator . say 1000 numbers .Press OK 61 .2.Generate. and = 1. 1 3 2 1000 random numbers each representing number of defects per trial . .Microsoft Excel data analysis .Select Poisson.

Perform Descriptive Statistics and Histogram 62 .

Convert Histogram into a Probability Distribution 63 .

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