You are on page 1of 63

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Part I: Probability Distributions for Discrete Variables

1
What is a Probability Distribution?
Examples of Probability Distribution
Precisely, a probability distribution is
0.3
a relative frequency distribution of all
0.25
possible outcomes of an experiment

Probability P(x)
0.2

Income Relative frequency P(x) 0.15


Under $20,000 0.2380 0.1
$20,000 to < $40,000 0.2607 0.05
$40,000 to < $60,000 0.1941 0
Under $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 Above
$60,000 to < $80,000 0.1408 $20,000 to < to < to < to < $100,000
$80,000 to < $100,000 0.0907 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000
Income
Above $100,000 0.0757

1
0.9
(a)
0.8
Probability P(I & j) 0.7
Results = Results = 0.6
Positive Negative 0.5
(PO) (NE) Total 0.4
Woman is pregnant (Y) 0.85 0.05 0.9 0.3
Woman is not pregnant (N) 0.03 0.07 0.1
0.2
Total 0.88 0.12 1
0.1
0
Y & PO Y & NE N & PO N & NE
(b) Joint Events (i & j) 2
Different types of Probability Distribution

Probability distributions of Probability distributions of


Discrete Variables Continuous Variables

P(x) P(x)

0 1 2 3 4 x 80 80.5 81 81.5 82.0 82.5 x

Examples: Examples:

- Binomial distribution - Uniform distribution


- Poisson distribution - Normal distribution

(b)
(a)
3
Random variable:

A variable is a characteristic that varies from one component of a population to another. It


becomes a random variable when its values vary randomly or by chance

Discrete random variable:


A variable that can take only integer values (e.g. 0, 1, and 2)

Continuous random variable:


A variable that can take any value in a specified interval falling within its plausible range
(e.g. 5, 5.6, 8.8, 10, and 12.4)

4
Working problem 5.1:

Decide whether the following random variables x are discrete or continuous.


Explain your answer

1. Human height
2. Human weight
3. Temperature
4. Number of graduating students
5. Number of student in a stat class
6. House area in square feet
7. The number of eggs that a hen lays in a day
8. The number of emergency room patients in one day in a hospital

5
The probability distribution of discrete variables

It is a relative frequency distribution, which lists each possible value of a discrete


random variable and its associated probability. It should also satisfy the criteria:

6
The probability distribution of discrete variables
Example: Does the Table below describe a probability distribution?
probabilities p(x) corresponding to a random variable x
x P(x)
0 0.15
1 0.2
2 0.05
3 0.25
4 0.25
5 0.3
6 0.1

Solution:
The probability values here are less than one, which satisfies the condition:

However, the sum of probabilities

which is not equal one.


Because the sum requirement is not satisfied, we conclude that Table 5.1 does not describe
a probability distribution. 7
Example: In an experiment in which two coins are tossed, what are the possible
outcomes? If the outcome of interest is head, what are the probabilities of zero head,
one head, and two heads? Construct a probability distribution illustrating this
experiment.
Solution:
Outcomes resulting from tossing two coins
Trial number Possible outcomes x = number of heads P(x)
1 T, T 0 1/4
2 T, H 1 1/4
3 H, T 1 1/4
4 H, H 2 1/4

Probability values associated with


the number of heads
x = number of P(x)
heads
0 1/4
1 1/2
2 1/4

8
9
Working problem 5.3:

(a) Does P(x) = x/6, where x can be 0, 1, or 5 determine a probability distribution? Explain why?

(b) Does P(x) = x/5, where x can be 0 or 1 , 2, or 3 determine a probability distribution? Explain why?

(c) Does P(x) = x/3, where x can be 0 or 1 , or 2 determine a probability distribution? Explain why?

Working problem 5.4: In a survey conducted by a Real-Estate broker, houses in a certain city
were classified by the number of bathrooms available. The results of this survey are shown
below. The first column represents the number of bathrooms, and the second column
represents the number of houses. Construct a probability distribution representing this survey.

Number of bathrooms per Number of houses


house
1 400
1.5 840
2 330
2.5 920
3 360
3.5 420
10
The mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of discrete variables

The mean of a discrete random variable x (also called the expected value of x) is
expressed by:

The standard deviation of a discrete variable x is expressed by:

11
The mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of discrete variables

Example: For the data of the Table below, calculate the mean of the discrete variable
representing the number of bedrooms per house.

Calculations of mean of a discrete variable

Bedrooms per house Number of houses P(x) xP(x)


1 200 0.1 0.1
2 310 0.155 0.31
3 330 0.165 0.495
4 600 0.3 1.2
5 450 0.225 1.125
6 110 0.055 0.33
2000
1 3.56

12
Example: For the data of the Table below, calculate the standard deviation of the discrete
variable representing the number of bedrooms per house.

Number of Number of
rooms/house houses
P(x) xP(x) x2 x2P(x)
1 200 0.1 0.1 1 0.1
2 310 0.155 0.31 4 0.62
3 330 0.165 0.495 9 1.485
4 600 0.3 1.2 16 4.8
5 450 0.225 1.125 25 5.625
6 110 0.055 0.33 36 1.98
2000 1 3.56
14.61

13
Working Problem: 5.5
In a survey conducted by a real-estate broker, houses in a certain city were classified by
the number of full bathrooms available. The results of this survey are shown in the table
below. If a house is picked from this area randomly:

- What is the chance that it will have 3 bathrooms?


- What is the chance that it will have less than 3 bathrooms?

Frequency of houses by the number of full bathrooms


Number of full bathrooms per house Number of houses
1 45
2 410
3 320
4 38
5 12

14
Working Problem: 5.6
In a survey conducted by a real-estate broker, houses in a certain city were classified by the
number of full bathrooms available. The results of this survey are shown in the table below.

- Calculate the mean number of bathrooms per house


- Calculate the standard deviation of the number of bathrooms per house.

Frequency of houses by the number of full bathrooms


Number of full bathrooms per house Number of houses
1 45
2 410
3 320
4 38
5 12

15
Working problem 5.7:

A person plans to invest a $100,000. An investment consultant offered this person five investment packages the return
of each will depend on whether the economy next year will be fair or good. The table below lists the anticipated return
on each investment.

According to the investment consultant, next years economy has a 45% chance of being good and a 55% chance of
being fair.

a. Determine the probability distribution of each random variable M, S, C, and R


b. Determine the expected value of each random variable.
c. Which investment has the best expected payoff? Which has the worst?

16
The binomial probability distribution

Or
Parameters of the
Binomial Distribution, n & P

The mean and variance


of a binomial distribution
are:

17
Basic characteristics of the binomial distribution are as follows:

The binomial distribution is the most appropriate probability distribution for sampling from an
infinitely large population, where p represents the fraction of defective or nonconforming items in
the population, x represents the number of nonconforming items found in a random sample of n
items. Examples of variables that are best approximated by a binomial distribution include success
and failure in business, passing or failing a course, product defects, rejected items, and head or tail
in tossing a coin.

In a binomial experiment, there are n identical trials. In other words, the given experiment is
repeated n times, where n is a positive integer.

Each repetition of a binomial experiment is called a trial or a Bernoulli trial (after Jacob Bernoulli).

Each trial has two and only two outcomes (success or failure, pass or fail, head or tail, etc).

The probability of success is denoted by p and that of failure by q or (1-p).

Binomial trials are independent. This means that the outcome of one trial does not affect the
outcome of the next trial or any other trial.

18
The shape of the binomial distribution

19
Example: There are four flights daily from Atlantic City Airport, New Jersey, to Atlanta Airport,
Georgia, via Air Tran Airline. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives on time is 0.70.
Construct a binomial distribution of the random variable number of on-time arrivals.
What is the probability that none of the flights will arrive on time tomorrow?
What is the probability that exactly two of the flights will be on time?
Solution:
If we are willing to assume that the variable arrival time follows a binomial
distribution, we can construct this distribution using the binomial equation,
and the two parameters n and p. In symbols, the x variable is described as
x ~ b(n, p) or x ~ b(4, 0.7).

x= 0,1,2,

x P(x)
0 0.00810
1 0.07560
2 0.26460
3 0.41160
4 0.24010

20
Binomial distribution (n = 4, p = 0.7)
x P(x)
1.00
0 0.00810
1 0.07560 0.90

2 0.26460 0.80
3 0.41160 0.70
4 0.24010
0.60

P(x)
0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Number of flights on time (x)

Binomial Distributions of flight on-time arrivals

The probability that none of the flights will arrive on time tomorrow = P(x= 0) = 0.0081

The probability that exactly two of the flights will be on time = P(x=2) = 0.26460 (about 26% chance
that exactly two flights will be on time)
21
Example: Using the results of the previous Example, what is the expected value of arrival on time,
and what is the extent of variation (variance)?

Solution:

n = 4, p = 0.7

22
Working problem 5.8:

There are three flights daily from Charlotte, NC , to New York, NY (JFK), via U.S. Air .
Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.10.

- Construct a binomial probability distribution

- What is the expected value and the variance?

- What is the probability that none of the flights are late today?

-What is the probability that exactly one of the flights is late today?

- What is the probability that exactly two of the flights are late today?

23
Working problem 5.9:

For the experiment of tossing a coin 6 times, construct a binomial probability


distribution.

- What is the expected value and the variance?

- What is the probability that 2 heads will turn up?

-What is the probability that five heads will turn up?

- What is the probability that no heads will turn up?

24
Working problem 5.10: A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units
used for automobiles finds that on average 1.2% of the units fails at high-speed
accelerated test. This finding represents historical value based on routine inspection of
100 units daily. If we let x be the random variable representing the number of failing
brake units,

- Construct a binomial distribution of this variable


- Determine the expected value and the variance of failure of brakes

25
Working problem 5.11: A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units
used for automobiles finds that on average 1.2% of the units fails at high-speed
accelerated test. This finding represents historical value based on routine inspection of
100 units daily. If we let x be the random variable representing the number of failing
brake units:

- What is the probability that exactly one brake unit will fail?
- What is the probability that less than two brake units will fail?
- What is the probability that more than 4 brake units will fail?

26
Working Problem 5.12:

There are five bus trips from JFK Airport to Newark Airport.
Suppose the probability that any bus arrives late is 0.20.

- Construct a binomial distribution describing the random event of bus late


arrivals.

-Calculate the mean and the variance

27
Working Problem 5.13:

There are five bus trips from JFK Airport to Newark Airport.
Suppose the probability that any bus arrives late is 0.20.

What is the probability that none of the bus trips will be late today?

What is the probability that one of the bus trips will be late today?

28
Example: You enter the class to find out that the teacher is given a previously unannounced
quiz of 10 multiple-choice questions, each with one correct answer out of possible 4 answer
choices (A, B, C, and D). Since you were not prepared for the quiz, you decided to make
a random guess.
Does this situation reflect a binomial experiment?
If the answer is yes, formulate the probability function
What are the values of the two parameters, n and p of the binomial distribution?
What is your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly?

Solution:
This experiment fully satisfies the binomial model. The reasons are:
A fixed number of trials = n = 10
The trials are independent (the answer of one question is independent of the answer of another
question)
Each trial is associated with two outcomes, correct or wrong
Each trial is associated with fixed probability p = 1/4, since the chance of a correct answer is one
out of four. Thus, the probability remains constant

n = 10, p = 0.25

Your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly:

29
Example: In the previous example, find the probabilities of answering one, two,
three,., or ten questions correctly. Construct the Binomial Distribution.

Binomial distribution of multiple-choice quiz

x P(x) Cumulative probability


0 0.05631 0.05631
1 0.18771 0.24403
2 0.28157 0.52559
3 0.25028 0.77588
4 0.14600 0.92187 0.30
5 0.05840 0.98027
6 0.01622 0.99649 0.25 2.500 expected value
7 0.00309 0.99958 1.875 variance
0.20 1.369 standard deviation
8 0.00039 0.99997
9 0.00003 1.00000

P(x)
0.15
10 0.00000 1.00000
0.10

0.05

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
x

Binomial Distributions at p = 0.25 and n = 10

30
Working problem 5.14

Based on a worldwide mortality statistics, there is about 60% chance that a person aged 30
will be alive at age 70. Suppose that five people aged 30 are selected at random.

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be exactly two

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be at most two

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be at least three

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be none

- Determine the probability distribution of the number alive at age 70

- Determine the expected value and the variance of the number alive at age 70

31
30+ 60+ 70+
Working problem 5.15:

A charity for deaf and blind offered 1000 tickets each of $5 to collect money. Only the first 4
draws win prices. The prices for the first 4 tickets are $200, $150, $100, and $50. If you buy
one ticket, what would be your expected value of gain?

Working problem 5.16:

In a multiple-choice exam of 20 questions, 5 possible answers were assigned for each


question and only one answer is correct. If a student is answering these questions
randomly, would this represent a binomial experiment? If the answer is yes, formulate the
probability function
What are the values of the two parameters, n and p of the binomial distribution? Calculate
the expected value and the variance.

- What is your chance to answer exactly 2 questions correctly?

- What is your chance to answer less than 3 questions correctly?

-What is your chance to answer more than 15 questions correctly? 32


Working problem 5.17:

In a multiple-choice exam of 100 questions, 4 possible answers were assigned for each
question and only one answer is correct. If a student is answering these questions randomly,
how many questions would he/she be expected to answer?

Working problem 5.18:


In a multiple-choice exam of 60 questions, 4 possible answers were assigned for each question
and only one answer is correct. A student made a serious attempt at the first 40 questions. This
student typically answer multiple-choice tests with a rate of success of about 80%. How many
questions will this student be expected to answer correctly out of the first 40 questions?

If the same student then attempted to answer the remaining 20 questions randomly. Would you
consider his attempts as a binomial experiment? If the answer is yes, what is the expected
number of questions that this student will answer correctly out of these 20 questions? Estimate
the total number of questions that this student and predict his letter grade?

Note:
G 90 = A
80 G < 90 = B
70 G < 80 = C 33
60 G < 70 = D
Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Binomial Distribution Analysis

Example: If 15% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, what is the probability
that out of 3 bolts selected at random (a) 0, (b) 1, (c) less than 2, bolts will be defective?
Binomial distribution (n = 3, p = 0.15)
0.70

0.60 X P(X)
Solution: 0 0.61413
1 0.32513
0.50 2 0.05738
P = 0.15, 1- P = 0.85
3 0.00338
P(X) 0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00
0 1 2 3
X

34
Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Binomial Distribution Analysis

Example:

P = 0.15, q = 0.85

1
P( x 0) ?
P( x 1) ?
P( x 2) ?
Go to Excel Spreadsheet
Click fx on the button bar 2
Select Statistical from the 3
Or select a category drop
down list box
Select BINODIST from the
Select a function list
Click OK
4

35
Example: P = 0.15, q = 0.85 (a) P( x 0) ? (b) P( x 1) ? (c) P( x 2) ?
To answer Part (a) of this Example,
3
P( x 0) 0.15 0.85 0.614
type 0 in the Number_s window, 0 3
and 3 in the Trials Window, 0.15 in the

0
Probability_s window, and False in
the Cumulative Window.
You should be able to see the value
of the P(x = 0) as illustrated by the
ellipse in the Figure, or you can
Click Ok and the value will be
presented

Note:
Under Cumulative, we use
FALSE for getting the exact
probability value (i.e. P(x=0) or
P(x=1)), or TRUE for getting
cumulative probability
5

6 36
3
P( x 1) 0.15 0.85 0.325
1 2

Note:
Under Cumulative, we use
FALSE for getting the exact
probability value (i.e. P(x=0) or
P(x=1)), or TRUE for getting
cumulative probability

P( x 2) P( x 0) P( x 1)
0.614 0.325 0.939

37
Working problem 5.19 (Use Excel to solve this problem):

A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units used for automobiles finds that
on average 1.2% of the units fails at high-speed accelerated test. This finding represents
historical value based on routine inspection of 100 units daily. If we let x be the random variable
representing the number of failing brake units:

- What is the probability that exactly one brake unit will fail?

- What is the probability that less than two brake units will fail?

- What is the probability that more than 4 brake units will fail?

38
Working problem 5.20:

You enter the class to find out that the teacher is given a previously unannounced quiz of
eight multiple-choice questions, each with one correct answer out of possible 4 answer
choices (A, B, C, and D). Since you were not prepared for the quiz, you decided to make a
random guess.

- Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly?

- Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer exactly 2 questions correctly?

- Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer no questions correctly?

39
What is a Poisson Probability Distribution?

A probability distribution used for modeling discrete variables with the concern being with
the number of events occurring per a given time or space interval.

The interval may represent any duration of time (e.g. per hour, per shift, per week, etc.) or
any specified region (e.g. per unit area, per box, per shipment, etc.).

In most applications, the Poisson distribution is often used to model the events of largely
unlikely failure or rare product defects.

The probability of an event described by a Poisson distribution is given by:

x where x is the number of target events,


e P(x) is the probability of x events in a
P(x) given time or space interval, l is the
x! expected average number of events per
interval, and e = 2.7182818 is the base of
x 0,1,2,3,.... the natural logarithm system.

The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution are given by:

np
2 np 40
Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications

Example: The mean number of accidents on the job per month at a certain
company is 3. Model this variable by a Poisson distribution and determine the
probability that in any given month four accidents will occur at this company?
X P(X)
x 0 0.04979
e (3) e4 3
81 0.0498 1 0.14936
P(x 4) 0.168 2 0.22404
x! 4! 4 3 2 1 3 0.22404
4 0.16803
x e (3) 0 e 3 5 0.10082
at x 0 P ( 0) 0.0498
x! 0! 6 0.05041
x e (3)1 e 3
7 0.02160
at x 1 P(1) 0.1494 Poisson distribution (= 3) 8 0.00810
x! 1! 9 0.00270
x e (3) 2 e 3
0.25 10 0.00081
at x 2 P(2) 0.224 11 0.00022
x! 2! 0.20 12 0.00006
............................... 13 0.00001
0.15
x 7 3 14 0.00000
P(X)
e (3) e
at x 7 P (7 ) 0.0216 0.10
15 0.00000
x! 7! 16 0.00000
17 0.00000
The mean and variance of this 0.05

distribution are: 0.00


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3 X

2 3 41
Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications
Example: A fast-food restaurant was trying to extend breakfast service from 10 am to 10:30 am to
allow more customers, particularly those who wake up late, to be served breakfast. From past
experience, the restaurant found that on average, the number of people showing up for breakfast
service from 10:00 am to 10:30 am is 7.5 people. What advice would you give this restaurant?
To assist you in this task,
The restaurant will allow the service to be extended if they can maintain more than 5 customers
coming for breakfast service in this period.
- What is the chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 5 customers during the added
period?
- What is the chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 10 customers during the added
period? x

e
P(x 5) P ( x 6) P ( x 7) P ( x 8) ....
6 x!
or
5
x e
P(x 5) 1 P(x 5) 1 -
= 7.5 0 x!
1 [ P ( x 0) P ( x 1) P ( x 3) P ( x 4) P ( x 5)]
7.50 e 7.5 7.51 e 7.5 7.5 2 e 7.5 7.53 e 7.5 7.5 4 e 7.5 7.55 e 7.5
1[ ]
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!
1 [0.000553 0.00414 0.0156 0.0389 0.0729 0.1094] 042.7585
Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications
Example (Contd): = 7.5 P(x 5) 0.7585
There is more than 75% chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 5
customers within the added half hour breakfast service.
The chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 10 customers during the
added period:
P(x 10) 1 P(x 10) 1 0.86224 0.138

Poisson distribution (= 7.5)


0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
P(X)

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
X

There is a 75% chance the restaurant will maintain more than 5 customers and 14% chance it
may even have more than 10 customers. 43
Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications

Example: Suppose that a new knitting machine used by a mill only fails to operate one
time every 10 hours. This leads to a failure rate, , of 0.1failure per hour.
What is the probability of two failures occurring randomly during the 10 hour period?

x e 0.12 e 0.1
P(x 2) 0.0045
x! 2!
Poisson distribution ( = 0.1)
1.00
0.90
Cumulative
0.80 X P(X) probability
0 0.90484 0.90484
0.70 1 0.09048 0.99532
0.60 2 0.00452 0.99985
3 0.00015 1.00000
P(X)

0.50 4 0.00000 1.00000


5 0.00000 1.00000
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
X

44
Working problem 5.21: The mean number of on-site accidental
deaths per a period of five years in an electric-service company
is 1.0. Assuming that a Poisson distribution can best represent
this random variable, determine the probability that in any given
five-year period, three on-site accidental deaths will occur?
Construct the Poison distribution describing this variable.
What is the mean and variance of this
distribution?

Working problem 5.22: The mean number of car accidents in Peachtree street in Atlanta, Georgia
is 3 per month. Assuming that a Poisson distribution can best represent this random variable,
determine the probability that in any given month, 5 or more car accidents will occur? Construct the
Poison distribution describing this variable. What is the mean and variance of this distribution?

45
Working Problem 5.23:

Assume on-time flight per week is a rare situation for a particular airline. Suppose on average,
this number is about 2.
Construct a Poisson distribution of this random variable.

-What is the expected value and variance of the number of on-time flights per week?
- What is the chance that the number of on-time flights per week will exceed 5?

46
Poisson & Binomial Probability Distribution-Applications

Example: Suppose that historically a machine producing bolts yields a rate


of 10% defective bolts. Find the probability that in a sample of 10 bolts
chosen at random exactly two will be defective? Calculate this probability
using Binomial and Poisson modeling of the variable.
0.45 Binomial distribution (n = 10, p = 0.1)
Using Binomial distribution: 0.40
0.35
n = 10, p = 0.1 0.30
0.25

P(X)
n 10
P( x 2) p x q n x 0.10 (0.90) 8 0.1937
2 0.20
0.15
x 2 0.10
0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Using Poisson distribution: X

np 10 0.1 1 Poisson distribution ( = 1)

P( x 2)
x 0.40
2 1
e
1e
0.1839
0.35
0.30
x! 2! P(X) 0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X 47
Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis

Example: If the number of some type of metal defects is assumed to follow a


Poisson distribution with a mean value 1 per 1000 square yard.
What is the probability of finding 2 defects?
What is the probability of finding at most 2 defects?
What is the probability of finding at least one defect?

Manual Calculations:

P( X 2)
x
x
e 12 e 1
p(2) 0.184
0 x! 2!
x
x
e 10 e 1 11 e 1 12 e 1
P( X 2) p(0) p(1) p(2)
0 x! 0! 1! 2!
0.368 0.368 0.184 0.920

p( x 1) 1 p( x 1) 1 p( x 0) 1 0.368 0.632

48
Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis ( =1)

Go to Excel Spreadsheet
Click fx on the button bar
Select Statistical from the Or
select a category drop down list
box
Select POISSON from the 2
Select a function list
Click OK

3
4

49
Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis ( =1)

Type 2 at the X window, 1 in Mean


window, and False in the
Cumulative Window.
You should be able to see the
value of the P(x = 2) as illustrated
by the circle in Figure 5.16. or you
can Click Ok and the value will be
5 presented

P( X 2) e
x
x
12 e 1
p(2) 0.184 6
0 x! 2!
50
P( X 2) e
x
x
10 e 1 11 e 1 12 e 1

0 x! 0! 1! 2!

p( x 1) 1 p( x 1) 1 p( x 0)
1 0.368 0.632

51
Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Discrete Probability Distribution Simulation

Example: Suppose that a manufacturer typically finds 2% defects in hard


drive units produced for personal computers. Generate a Binomial
distribution of nonconforming drives using a sample size of 400 drives.
n = 400, and p = 0.02

Binomial Distribution
USING EXCEL

52
1

Data Data Analysis Random Number Generation


53
5

Select one variable say 1000 random numbers


Select Binomial n = 400, p =0.02 select an output area
54
Perform Descriptive Statistics

7
6

1000 random
numbers
each representing
number of defects
in 400 inspected
Samples

55
Average Number of Defects 8
This leads to average probability
= 8/400 = 0.02 (the p value)
The Standard Deviation = 2.737
This is approximately equal to
the theoretical :

npq (400)(0.02)(0.98) 2.8

Note

56
Perform Histogram

10

57
Perform Histogram

58
Convert Histogram into a Probability Distribution

To convert a histogram to a probability


Distribution:
1. Form a column labeled p(x)
2. Calculate p(x) for each value of x
By dividing the frequency of each x by
The total frequency (1000).
3. You can then make a graph using
Excel graph features

Note
59
Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Discrete Probability Distribution Simulation

Example: If a company producing notebook computers historically finds


an average of 1.2 defects when inspecting random samples of constant
size of 60 disks. Using Excel Spreadsheet, simulate the probability
distribution of defects.

= 1.2

Poisson Distribution
USING EXCEL

60
1

1000 random
numbers
each representing
number of defects
per trial - Microsoft Excel data analysis
- Random Number Generator
- Generate, say 1000 numbers
- Select Poisson, and = 1.2.
- Press OK

61
Perform Descriptive Statistics and Histogram

62
Convert Histogram into a Probability Distribution

63