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- Calculus
- Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
- Descrete Distribution
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- Exam2 Study Guide F12
- modprob
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- Binomial Distribution
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1

What is a Probability Distribution?

Examples of Probability Distribution

Precisely, a probability distribution is

0.3

a relative frequency distribution of all

0.25

possible outcomes of an experiment

Probability P(x)

0.2

Under $20,000 0.2380 0.1

$20,000 to < $40,000 0.2607 0.05

$40,000 to < $60,000 0.1941 0

Under $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 Above

$60,000 to < $80,000 0.1408 $20,000 to < to < to < to < $100,000

$80,000 to < $100,000 0.0907 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000

Income

Above $100,000 0.0757

1

0.9

(a)

0.8

Probability P(I & j) 0.7

Results = Results = 0.6

Positive Negative 0.5

(PO) (NE) Total 0.4

Woman is pregnant (Y) 0.85 0.05 0.9 0.3

Woman is not pregnant (N) 0.03 0.07 0.1

0.2

Total 0.88 0.12 1

0.1

0

Y & PO Y & NE N & PO N & NE

(b) Joint Events (i & j) 2

Different types of Probability Distribution

Discrete Variables Continuous Variables

P(x) P(x)

Examples: Examples:

- Poisson distribution - Normal distribution

(b)

(a)

3

Random variable:

becomes a random variable when its values vary randomly or by chance

A variable that can take only integer values (e.g. 0, 1, and 2)

A variable that can take any value in a specified interval falling within its plausible range

(e.g. 5, 5.6, 8.8, 10, and 12.4)

4

Working problem 5.1:

Explain your answer

1. Human height

2. Human weight

3. Temperature

4. Number of graduating students

5. Number of student in a stat class

6. House area in square feet

7. The number of eggs that a hen lays in a day

8. The number of emergency room patients in one day in a hospital

5

The probability distribution of discrete variables

random variable and its associated probability. It should also satisfy the criteria:

6

The probability distribution of discrete variables

Example: Does the Table below describe a probability distribution?

probabilities p(x) corresponding to a random variable x

x P(x)

0 0.15

1 0.2

2 0.05

3 0.25

4 0.25

5 0.3

6 0.1

Solution:

The probability values here are less than one, which satisfies the condition:

Because the sum requirement is not satisfied, we conclude that Table 5.1 does not describe

a probability distribution. 7

Example: In an experiment in which two coins are tossed, what are the possible

outcomes? If the outcome of interest is head, what are the probabilities of zero head,

one head, and two heads? Construct a probability distribution illustrating this

experiment.

Solution:

Outcomes resulting from tossing two coins

Trial number Possible outcomes x = number of heads P(x)

1 T, T 0 1/4

2 T, H 1 1/4

3 H, T 1 1/4

4 H, H 2 1/4

the number of heads

x = number of P(x)

heads

0 1/4

1 1/2

2 1/4

8

9

Working problem 5.3:

(a) Does P(x) = x/6, where x can be 0, 1, or 5 determine a probability distribution? Explain why?

(b) Does P(x) = x/5, where x can be 0 or 1 , 2, or 3 determine a probability distribution? Explain why?

(c) Does P(x) = x/3, where x can be 0 or 1 , or 2 determine a probability distribution? Explain why?

Working problem 5.4: In a survey conducted by a Real-Estate broker, houses in a certain city

were classified by the number of bathrooms available. The results of this survey are shown

below. The first column represents the number of bathrooms, and the second column

represents the number of houses. Construct a probability distribution representing this survey.

house

1 400

1.5 840

2 330

2.5 920

3 360

3.5 420

10

The mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of discrete variables

The mean of a discrete random variable x (also called the expected value of x) is

expressed by:

11

The mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of discrete variables

Example: For the data of the Table below, calculate the mean of the discrete variable

representing the number of bedrooms per house.

1 200 0.1 0.1

2 310 0.155 0.31

3 330 0.165 0.495

4 600 0.3 1.2

5 450 0.225 1.125

6 110 0.055 0.33

2000

1 3.56

12

Example: For the data of the Table below, calculate the standard deviation of the discrete

variable representing the number of bedrooms per house.

Number of Number of

rooms/house houses

P(x) xP(x) x2 x2P(x)

1 200 0.1 0.1 1 0.1

2 310 0.155 0.31 4 0.62

3 330 0.165 0.495 9 1.485

4 600 0.3 1.2 16 4.8

5 450 0.225 1.125 25 5.625

6 110 0.055 0.33 36 1.98

2000 1 3.56

14.61

13

Working Problem: 5.5

In a survey conducted by a real-estate broker, houses in a certain city were classified by

the number of full bathrooms available. The results of this survey are shown in the table

below. If a house is picked from this area randomly:

- What is the chance that it will have less than 3 bathrooms?

Number of full bathrooms per house Number of houses

1 45

2 410

3 320

4 38

5 12

14

Working Problem: 5.6

In a survey conducted by a real-estate broker, houses in a certain city were classified by the

number of full bathrooms available. The results of this survey are shown in the table below.

- Calculate the standard deviation of the number of bathrooms per house.

Number of full bathrooms per house Number of houses

1 45

2 410

3 320

4 38

5 12

15

Working problem 5.7:

A person plans to invest a $100,000. An investment consultant offered this person five investment packages the return

of each will depend on whether the economy next year will be fair or good. The table below lists the anticipated return

on each investment.

According to the investment consultant, next years economy has a 45% chance of being good and a 55% chance of

being fair.

b. Determine the expected value of each random variable.

c. Which investment has the best expected payoff? Which has the worst?

16

The binomial probability distribution

Or

Parameters of the

Binomial Distribution, n & P

of a binomial distribution

are:

17

Basic characteristics of the binomial distribution are as follows:

The binomial distribution is the most appropriate probability distribution for sampling from an

infinitely large population, where p represents the fraction of defective or nonconforming items in

the population, x represents the number of nonconforming items found in a random sample of n

items. Examples of variables that are best approximated by a binomial distribution include success

and failure in business, passing or failing a course, product defects, rejected items, and head or tail

in tossing a coin.

In a binomial experiment, there are n identical trials. In other words, the given experiment is

repeated n times, where n is a positive integer.

Each repetition of a binomial experiment is called a trial or a Bernoulli trial (after Jacob Bernoulli).

Each trial has two and only two outcomes (success or failure, pass or fail, head or tail, etc).

Binomial trials are independent. This means that the outcome of one trial does not affect the

outcome of the next trial or any other trial.

18

The shape of the binomial distribution

19

Example: There are four flights daily from Atlantic City Airport, New Jersey, to Atlanta Airport,

Georgia, via Air Tran Airline. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives on time is 0.70.

Construct a binomial distribution of the random variable number of on-time arrivals.

What is the probability that none of the flights will arrive on time tomorrow?

What is the probability that exactly two of the flights will be on time?

Solution:

If we are willing to assume that the variable arrival time follows a binomial

distribution, we can construct this distribution using the binomial equation,

and the two parameters n and p. In symbols, the x variable is described as

x ~ b(n, p) or x ~ b(4, 0.7).

x= 0,1,2,

x P(x)

0 0.00810

1 0.07560

2 0.26460

3 0.41160

4 0.24010

20

Binomial distribution (n = 4, p = 0.7)

x P(x)

1.00

0 0.00810

1 0.07560 0.90

2 0.26460 0.80

3 0.41160 0.70

4 0.24010

0.60

P(x)

0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0 0 0 0 0

Number of flights on time (x)

The probability that none of the flights will arrive on time tomorrow = P(x= 0) = 0.0081

The probability that exactly two of the flights will be on time = P(x=2) = 0.26460 (about 26% chance

that exactly two flights will be on time)

21

Example: Using the results of the previous Example, what is the expected value of arrival on time,

and what is the extent of variation (variance)?

Solution:

n = 4, p = 0.7

22

Working problem 5.8:

There are three flights daily from Charlotte, NC , to New York, NY (JFK), via U.S. Air .

Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.10.

- What is the probability that none of the flights are late today?

-What is the probability that exactly one of the flights is late today?

- What is the probability that exactly two of the flights are late today?

23

Working problem 5.9:

distribution.

24

Working problem 5.10: A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units

used for automobiles finds that on average 1.2% of the units fails at high-speed

accelerated test. This finding represents historical value based on routine inspection of

100 units daily. If we let x be the random variable representing the number of failing

brake units,

- Determine the expected value and the variance of failure of brakes

25

Working problem 5.11: A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units

used for automobiles finds that on average 1.2% of the units fails at high-speed

accelerated test. This finding represents historical value based on routine inspection of

100 units daily. If we let x be the random variable representing the number of failing

brake units:

- What is the probability that exactly one brake unit will fail?

- What is the probability that less than two brake units will fail?

- What is the probability that more than 4 brake units will fail?

26

Working Problem 5.12:

There are five bus trips from JFK Airport to Newark Airport.

Suppose the probability that any bus arrives late is 0.20.

arrivals.

27

Working Problem 5.13:

There are five bus trips from JFK Airport to Newark Airport.

Suppose the probability that any bus arrives late is 0.20.

What is the probability that none of the bus trips will be late today?

What is the probability that one of the bus trips will be late today?

28

Example: You enter the class to find out that the teacher is given a previously unannounced

quiz of 10 multiple-choice questions, each with one correct answer out of possible 4 answer

choices (A, B, C, and D). Since you were not prepared for the quiz, you decided to make

a random guess.

Does this situation reflect a binomial experiment?

If the answer is yes, formulate the probability function

What are the values of the two parameters, n and p of the binomial distribution?

What is your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly?

Solution:

This experiment fully satisfies the binomial model. The reasons are:

A fixed number of trials = n = 10

The trials are independent (the answer of one question is independent of the answer of another

question)

Each trial is associated with two outcomes, correct or wrong

Each trial is associated with fixed probability p = 1/4, since the chance of a correct answer is one

out of four. Thus, the probability remains constant

n = 10, p = 0.25

29

Example: In the previous example, find the probabilities of answering one, two,

three,., or ten questions correctly. Construct the Binomial Distribution.

0 0.05631 0.05631

1 0.18771 0.24403

2 0.28157 0.52559

3 0.25028 0.77588

4 0.14600 0.92187 0.30

5 0.05840 0.98027

6 0.01622 0.99649 0.25 2.500 expected value

7 0.00309 0.99958 1.875 variance

0.20 1.369 standard deviation

8 0.00039 0.99997

9 0.00003 1.00000

P(x)

0.15

10 0.00000 1.00000

0.10

0.05

0.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

x

30

Working problem 5.14

Based on a worldwide mortality statistics, there is about 60% chance that a person aged 30

will be alive at age 70. Suppose that five people aged 30 are selected at random.

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be exactly two

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be at most two

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be at least three

- Find the probability that the number alive at age 70 will be none

- Determine the expected value and the variance of the number alive at age 70

31

30+ 60+ 70+

Working problem 5.15:

A charity for deaf and blind offered 1000 tickets each of $5 to collect money. Only the first 4

draws win prices. The prices for the first 4 tickets are $200, $150, $100, and $50. If you buy

one ticket, what would be your expected value of gain?

question and only one answer is correct. If a student is answering these questions

randomly, would this represent a binomial experiment? If the answer is yes, formulate the

probability function

What are the values of the two parameters, n and p of the binomial distribution? Calculate

the expected value and the variance.

Working problem 5.17:

In a multiple-choice exam of 100 questions, 4 possible answers were assigned for each

question and only one answer is correct. If a student is answering these questions randomly,

how many questions would he/she be expected to answer?

In a multiple-choice exam of 60 questions, 4 possible answers were assigned for each question

and only one answer is correct. A student made a serious attempt at the first 40 questions. This

student typically answer multiple-choice tests with a rate of success of about 80%. How many

questions will this student be expected to answer correctly out of the first 40 questions?

If the same student then attempted to answer the remaining 20 questions randomly. Would you

consider his attempts as a binomial experiment? If the answer is yes, what is the expected

number of questions that this student will answer correctly out of these 20 questions? Estimate

the total number of questions that this student and predict his letter grade?

Note:

G 90 = A

80 G < 90 = B

70 G < 80 = C 33

60 G < 70 = D

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Binomial Distribution Analysis

Example: If 15% of the bolts produced by a machine are defective, what is the probability

that out of 3 bolts selected at random (a) 0, (b) 1, (c) less than 2, bolts will be defective?

Binomial distribution (n = 3, p = 0.15)

0.70

0.60 X P(X)

Solution: 0 0.61413

1 0.32513

0.50 2 0.05738

P = 0.15, 1- P = 0.85

3 0.00338

P(X) 0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0 1 2 3

X

34

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Binomial Distribution Analysis

Example:

P = 0.15, q = 0.85

1

P( x 0) ?

P( x 1) ?

P( x 2) ?

Go to Excel Spreadsheet

Click fx on the button bar 2

Select Statistical from the 3

Or select a category drop

down list box

Select BINODIST from the

Select a function list

Click OK

4

35

Example: P = 0.15, q = 0.85 (a) P( x 0) ? (b) P( x 1) ? (c) P( x 2) ?

To answer Part (a) of this Example,

3

P( x 0) 0.15 0.85 0.614

type 0 in the Number_s window, 0 3

and 3 in the Trials Window, 0.15 in the

0

Probability_s window, and False in

the Cumulative Window.

You should be able to see the value

of the P(x = 0) as illustrated by the

ellipse in the Figure, or you can

Click Ok and the value will be

presented

Note:

Under Cumulative, we use

FALSE for getting the exact

probability value (i.e. P(x=0) or

P(x=1)), or TRUE for getting

cumulative probability

5

6 36

3

P( x 1) 0.15 0.85 0.325

1 2

Note:

Under Cumulative, we use

FALSE for getting the exact

probability value (i.e. P(x=0) or

P(x=1)), or TRUE for getting

cumulative probability

P( x 2) P( x 0) P( x 1)

0.614 0.325 0.939

37

Working problem 5.19 (Use Excel to solve this problem):

A manufacturer of electromagnetic combined clutch-brake units used for automobiles finds that

on average 1.2% of the units fails at high-speed accelerated test. This finding represents

historical value based on routine inspection of 100 units daily. If we let x be the random variable

representing the number of failing brake units:

- What is the probability that exactly one brake unit will fail?

- What is the probability that less than two brake units will fail?

- What is the probability that more than 4 brake units will fail?

38

Working problem 5.20:

You enter the class to find out that the teacher is given a previously unannounced quiz of

eight multiple-choice questions, each with one correct answer out of possible 4 answer

choices (A, B, C, and D). Since you were not prepared for the quiz, you decided to make a

random guess.

- Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer exactly 3 questions correctly?

- Use Excel function to determine your chance to answer exactly 2 questions correctly?

39

What is a Poisson Probability Distribution?

A probability distribution used for modeling discrete variables with the concern being with

the number of events occurring per a given time or space interval.

The interval may represent any duration of time (e.g. per hour, per shift, per week, etc.) or

any specified region (e.g. per unit area, per box, per shipment, etc.).

In most applications, the Poisson distribution is often used to model the events of largely

unlikely failure or rare product defects.

e P(x) is the probability of x events in a

P(x) given time or space interval, l is the

x! expected average number of events per

interval, and e = 2.7182818 is the base of

x 0,1,2,3,.... the natural logarithm system.

The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution are given by:

np

2 np 40

Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications

Example: The mean number of accidents on the job per month at a certain

company is 3. Model this variable by a Poisson distribution and determine the

probability that in any given month four accidents will occur at this company?

X P(X)

x 0 0.04979

e (3) e4 3

81 0.0498 1 0.14936

P(x 4) 0.168 2 0.22404

x! 4! 4 3 2 1 3 0.22404

4 0.16803

x e (3) 0 e 3 5 0.10082

at x 0 P ( 0) 0.0498

x! 0! 6 0.05041

x e (3)1 e 3

7 0.02160

at x 1 P(1) 0.1494 Poisson distribution (= 3) 8 0.00810

x! 1! 9 0.00270

x e (3) 2 e 3

0.25 10 0.00081

at x 2 P(2) 0.224 11 0.00022

x! 2! 0.20 12 0.00006

............................... 13 0.00001

0.15

x 7 3 14 0.00000

P(X)

e (3) e

at x 7 P (7 ) 0.0216 0.10

15 0.00000

x! 7! 16 0.00000

17 0.00000

The mean and variance of this 0.05

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

3 X

2 3 41

Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications

Example: A fast-food restaurant was trying to extend breakfast service from 10 am to 10:30 am to

allow more customers, particularly those who wake up late, to be served breakfast. From past

experience, the restaurant found that on average, the number of people showing up for breakfast

service from 10:00 am to 10:30 am is 7.5 people. What advice would you give this restaurant?

To assist you in this task,

The restaurant will allow the service to be extended if they can maintain more than 5 customers

coming for breakfast service in this period.

- What is the chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 5 customers during the added

period?

- What is the chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 10 customers during the added

period? x

e

P(x 5) P ( x 6) P ( x 7) P ( x 8) ....

6 x!

or

5

x e

P(x 5) 1 P(x 5) 1 -

= 7.5 0 x!

1 [ P ( x 0) P ( x 1) P ( x 3) P ( x 4) P ( x 5)]

7.50 e 7.5 7.51 e 7.5 7.5 2 e 7.5 7.53 e 7.5 7.5 4 e 7.5 7.55 e 7.5

1[ ]

0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5!

1 [0.000553 0.00414 0.0156 0.0389 0.0729 0.1094] 042.7585

Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications

Example (Contd): = 7.5 P(x 5) 0.7585

There is more than 75% chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 5

customers within the added half hour breakfast service.

The chance that the restaurant will maintain more than 10 customers during the

added period:

P(x 10) 1 P(x 10) 1 0.86224 0.138

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10

P(X)

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

X

There is a 75% chance the restaurant will maintain more than 5 customers and 14% chance it

may even have more than 10 customers. 43

Poisson Probability Distribution-Applications

Example: Suppose that a new knitting machine used by a mill only fails to operate one

time every 10 hours. This leads to a failure rate, , of 0.1failure per hour.

What is the probability of two failures occurring randomly during the 10 hour period?

x e 0.12 e 0.1

P(x 2) 0.0045

x! 2!

Poisson distribution ( = 0.1)

1.00

0.90

Cumulative

0.80 X P(X) probability

0 0.90484 0.90484

0.70 1 0.09048 0.99532

0.60 2 0.00452 0.99985

3 0.00015 1.00000

P(X)

5 0.00000 1.00000

0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00

0 1 2 3 4 5

X

44

Working problem 5.21: The mean number of on-site accidental

deaths per a period of five years in an electric-service company

is 1.0. Assuming that a Poisson distribution can best represent

this random variable, determine the probability that in any given

five-year period, three on-site accidental deaths will occur?

Construct the Poison distribution describing this variable.

What is the mean and variance of this

distribution?

Working problem 5.22: The mean number of car accidents in Peachtree street in Atlanta, Georgia

is 3 per month. Assuming that a Poisson distribution can best represent this random variable,

determine the probability that in any given month, 5 or more car accidents will occur? Construct the

Poison distribution describing this variable. What is the mean and variance of this distribution?

45

Working Problem 5.23:

Assume on-time flight per week is a rare situation for a particular airline. Suppose on average,

this number is about 2.

Construct a Poisson distribution of this random variable.

-What is the expected value and variance of the number of on-time flights per week?

- What is the chance that the number of on-time flights per week will exceed 5?

46

Poisson & Binomial Probability Distribution-Applications

of 10% defective bolts. Find the probability that in a sample of 10 bolts

chosen at random exactly two will be defective? Calculate this probability

using Binomial and Poisson modeling of the variable.

0.45 Binomial distribution (n = 10, p = 0.1)

Using Binomial distribution: 0.40

0.35

n = 10, p = 0.1 0.30

0.25

P(X)

n 10

P( x 2) p x q n x 0.10 (0.90) 8 0.1937

2 0.20

0.15

x 2 0.10

0.05

0.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Using Poisson distribution: X

P( x 2)

x 0.40

2 1

e

1e

0.1839

0.35

0.30

x! 2! P(X) 0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

X 47

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis

Poisson distribution with a mean value 1 per 1000 square yard.

What is the probability of finding 2 defects?

What is the probability of finding at most 2 defects?

What is the probability of finding at least one defect?

Manual Calculations:

P( X 2)

x

x

e 12 e 1

p(2) 0.184

0 x! 2!

x

x

e 10 e 1 11 e 1 12 e 1

P( X 2) p(0) p(1) p(2)

0 x! 0! 1! 2!

0.368 0.368 0.184 0.920

p( x 1) 1 p( x 1) 1 p( x 0) 1 0.368 0.632

48

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis ( =1)

Go to Excel Spreadsheet

Click fx on the button bar

Select Statistical from the Or

select a category drop down list

box

Select POISSON from the 2

Select a function list

Click OK

3

4

49

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Poisson Distribution Analysis ( =1)

window, and False in the

Cumulative Window.

You should be able to see the

value of the P(x = 2) as illustrated

by the circle in Figure 5.16. or you

can Click Ok and the value will be

5 presented

P( X 2) e

x

x

12 e 1

p(2) 0.184 6

0 x! 2!

50

P( X 2) e

x

x

10 e 1 11 e 1 12 e 1

0 x! 0! 1! 2!

p( x 1) 1 p( x 1) 1 p( x 0)

1 0.368 0.632

51

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Discrete Probability Distribution Simulation

drive units produced for personal computers. Generate a Binomial

distribution of nonconforming drives using a sample size of 400 drives.

n = 400, and p = 0.02

Binomial Distribution

USING EXCEL

52

1

53

5

Select Binomial n = 400, p =0.02 select an output area

54

Perform Descriptive Statistics

7

6

1000 random

numbers

each representing

number of defects

in 400 inspected

Samples

55

Average Number of Defects 8

This leads to average probability

= 8/400 = 0.02 (the p value)

The Standard Deviation = 2.737

This is approximately equal to

the theoretical :

Note

56

Perform Histogram

10

57

Perform Histogram

58

Convert Histogram into a Probability Distribution

Distribution:

1. Form a column labeled p(x)

2. Calculate p(x) for each value of x

By dividing the frequency of each x by

The total frequency (1000).

3. You can then make a graph using

Excel graph features

Note

59

Using Microsoft Excel to Perform Discrete Probability Distribution Simulation

an average of 1.2 defects when inspecting random samples of constant

size of 60 disks. Using Excel Spreadsheet, simulate the probability

distribution of defects.

= 1.2

Poisson Distribution

USING EXCEL

60

1

1000 random

numbers

each representing

number of defects

per trial - Microsoft Excel data analysis

- Random Number Generator

- Generate, say 1000 numbers

- Select Poisson, and = 1.2.

- Press OK

61

Perform Descriptive Statistics and Histogram

62

Convert Histogram into a Probability Distribution

63

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