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MBA ZC417

Mock Test

Dr Shekhar Rajagopalan

Chap 7
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Question 1

NOPUS was conducted by sending observers to randomly selected sites to collect data on
the usage of DOT-compliant helmets by motorcyclists. Following table presents the data.
Type of Helmet
Region DOT-Complaint Non-Compliant
Northeast 96 62
Midwest 86 43
South 92 49
West 76 16
Suppose a motorcyclist is selected at random.
A. Estimate the probability that the motor-cyclist wears a DOT-Compliant helmet
B. What is the probability the motor-cyclist is DOT-Complaint given he is from NE
C. What is the probability the motor-cyclist is from NE given he is DOT-Complaint

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Solution

Type of Helmet
Region DOT-Complaint Non-Compliant TOTAL
Northeast 96 62 158
Midwest 86 43 129
South 92 49 141
West 76 16 92
TOTAL 350 170 520

A. 350/520
B. 96/158
C. 96/350
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Question 2

A report finds that lie detector tests given to truthful persons have probability about 0.2 of
suggesting that the person is deceptive. A company asks 12 job applicants about thefts from
previous employers, using a lie detector to assess their truthfulness. Suppose all 12 answer
truthfully.
What is the probability that the lie detector says at least 1 is deceptive?
What is the mean number among 12 truthful persons who will be classified as deceptive?
What is the standard deviation of this number?

X = # of persons identified by the lie detector as deceptive


X ~ B(12, 0.2)
P(X >= 1) = 1 P(X = 0) = 12 0
(0.2) 0(0.8)12 =

m = np = 2.4; s = (npq) = (12*.2*.8) = 1.92 =

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Question 3

Patients arrive at the emergency room of Mercy Hospital at the average rate of 6 per
hour on weekend evenings. What is the probability of 4 arrivals in 30 minutes on a
weekend evening?

m = 6/hour = 3/half-hour, X ~ Poisson(3)


34 3
P( X = 4) = = 0.1680
4!

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Question 4

A radar unit is used to measure speeds of cars on a motorway. The speeds are
normally distributed with a mean of 90 km/hr and a standard deviation of 10
km/hr. What is the probability that a car picked at random is travelling at more
than 100 km/hr?

X: Speed of a car
X ~ N(90, 10)
P(X > 100) = P(Z > (100 90)/10) = P(Z > 1) = 0.158

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Question 5

A sample of 5 weeks of sales was collected. Develop a point estimate for m and s. If
successful week is defined as sales over 95, estimate the percentage of successful
weeks Week 1 2 3 4 5
Sales 94 100 85 94 92

Week Sales (X) X - 93 (X - 93)2


1 94 1 1
Point Estimate for
2 100 7 49
m: is 93
3 85 -8 64
s: is (116/4) = 5.39
4 94 1 1
p: is 1/5 = 20%
5 92 -1 1
SUM 465 0 116
AVG 93

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Question 6

Discount Sounds has 260 retail outlets throughout the United States. The firm is evaluating a potential
location for a new outlet, based in part, on the mean annual income of the individuals in the marketing area of
the new location. A sample of size n = 36 was taken; the sample mean income is $41,400. The population
standard deviation is estimated to be $4,500, and a 95% confidence interval is desired.

Point Estimate of m: 41,400


Std Error of the Mean: 4500/36 = 4500/6 = 750

Sampling Distribution: ~ N(0, 1)
750
For a 95% CI, Margin of Error: 1.96*750 = 1470
95% CI: (41400-1470, 41400+1470) = (39930, 42870)

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Question 7
Political Science, Inc. (PSI) specializes in voter polls and surveys designed to keep political
office seekers informed of their position in a race. Using random surveys, PSI interviewers ask
registered voters who they would vote for if the election were held that day. In a current state
election campaign, PSI has just found that 220 registered voters, out of 500 contacted, favor a
particular candidate. PSI wants to develop a 95% confidence interval estimate for the
proportion of the population of registered voters that favor the candidate.

Point Estimate of p: 220/500 = 0.44



0.440.56
Estimate for Std Error of p: = = 0.0222
500
Np = 500*,44 = 220 >= 5 & nq = 500*.56 = 280 >= 5. Hence

Sampling Distribution: ~ N(0, 1)
0.0222
For a 95% CI, Margin of Error: 1.96*.0222 = 0.0435
95% CI: (40%, 48%)
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Question 8
The service goal of the EMS is to respond to medical emergencies with a mean time of 12 minutes or
less. The response times for a random sample of 40 medical emergencies were tabulated. The sample
mean is 13.25 minutes. The population standard deviation is believed to be 3.2 minutes. The EMS
director wants to perform a hypothesis test, with a .05 level of significance, to determine whether the
service goal of 12 minutes or less is being achieved.

The hypotheses: H0: m < 12 Vs Ha: m > 12


Data: n = 40, = 13.25m, s = 3.2m, a = 5%
Right-Tail Test (or Upper Tail Test)


12
Sampling Distribution: Since n 30, = ~ N(0, 1)
3.2/ 40
13.25 12
Test Statistic: = 2.47
3.2/ 40
p value: P(Z > 2.47) = 1 0.9932 = 0.0068
Since p-value = 0.0068 < a = .05, we reject H0.
There is sufficient statistical evidence to infer that Metro EMS is not meeting the response goal of 12
minutes.
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Question 9

The national Safety Council claimed that 50% of the accidents would be caused by drunk
driving. A sample of 120 accidents showed that 67 were caused by drunk driving. Use these
data to test the NSCs claim at 5% significance level.

The hypotheses: H0: p = 0.5 Vs Ha: p 0.5


Data: n = 120, = 67/120 = 0.56, a = 5%
Two-Tail Test


0.5
np = 60 & nq = 60 5. So, Sampling Distribution: = ~ N(0,1)
0 (10 ) 0.50.5
120
0.56 0.5
Test Statistic: = 1.3158
0.0456
p value: 2*P(Z > 1.32) = 2*0.0934 = 0.1868
Since p-value > a, do not reject H0

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