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Denominator?

Discount Rate

(a.k.a. Cost of Capital, or the Interest Rate)

Rate at which you can move money of

similar risk through time.

An individual moves money into the future by

buying securities such as stock, bonds, and

depositing funds into a savings, checking, or

other bank account.

An individual moves money from the future to

today by borrowing, or selling securities.

Discount Rate and Companies

A company moves money through time by

buying and selling securities as well.

It takes funds from the future and sells them

for cash today. This moves money backwards

in time (closer to today).

It funds from today and moves them into the

future (forwards in time) by buying real

assets: think plant and equipment. These

assets then (hopefully) produce future cash

flows.

Discount Rates and Projects

The discount rate for a particular set of

cash flows is determined by the market

risk of those cash flows.

This means a single firm with multiple

projects may need to use multiple discount

rates.

One for each project depending on that

projects market risk.

Practical Points About Determining

the Discount Rate

Companies often use higher discount

rates for investments involving new

products.

Bad idea! The idiosyncratic (a.k.a. firm

specific) risk associated with a new product is

NOT market risk. It alters the expected cash

flows (numerator of the present value

equation) not the discount rate (the

denominator of the present value equation).

Example

Tail of Fairies Caviar Import Company. Among your best

customers are the besieged aristocrats in the great and

wonderful town of Nottingham.

Alas, in the forests lies the evil communist Robin Hood!

As a result, there is a 20% chance any shipment of yours

will be intercepted by him and lost.

Our Story Continues

to Nottingham. Assume you can purchase the caviar for

10. Shipping, whether everything goes well or not

comes to 5.

In Nottingham the sale price of the caviar is, on average,

25, but the actual sales price depends on how well the

local economy is doing. Thus, the price has a market

beta of 1.5. Assume the annual risk free rate (rf) equals

2% and the market premium (rm-rf) for the same period

equals 10%. Should you proceed to ship caviar to

Nottingham?

Solution

Question 1: Is Robin Hood risk market

risk?

NO! The covariance between the market

return and having Robin Hood intercept your

shipment is (according to the story) zero.

Thus, it should not alter your discount rate.

Solution Continued

Question 2: What is the correct discount

rate?

r = rf+(rm-rf)

rf for a year is 2%, and rm-rf is 10%. So the

annual discount rate is rannual = .02+1.5(.1) =

.17.

Four months (time from purchase to sale) is a

third of a year. So the discount rate 1.171/3 or

5.4%.

The Present Value of Caviar

Shipping

.8 25

PV 15 3.98.

1.054

Notice that the chance Robin Hood intercepts

your shipment goes into the NUMERATOR. It

reduces your expected payoff. Remember the

numerator in the present value equation

contains the expected cash flows from the

project.

PV More on the Practical Issues

In some cases the investment calculations are

difficult to carry out.

Employee safety equipment investments.

Investments for environmental reasons

Solution

If you must make an investment to meet regulations,

or satisfy a labor agreement there is no need to

calculate anything. You just have to do it.

Otherwise, the standard PV calculations apply. You

need to estimate productivity gains, legal costs,

etcetera.

The correct discount rate is likely to be the risk free rate as

the cash flows are probably uncorrelated with the market.

WACC and APV

I am assuming future debt levels are a <blank>

and I want to make my life <blank>:

Amount Firm Value

Impossible Hard

Easy Easy

APV WACC

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

(WACC)

Ninety-nine times out of a hundred people

will use a firm's WACC as the discount

rate for any project a firm undertakes.

While this may be tempting, it only works if

two important assumptions hold:

The firm maintains a constant debt/equity

ratio over its lifetime.

The project has the same risk as the rest of

the firm.

WACC Defined

WACC is defined by:

D E

WACC 1 TC rD rE .

D E D+E

where:

D = dollar value of the outstanding debt

E = dollar value of the outstanding equity

rD = expected return on the firms debt

rE = expected return on the firms equity

TC = firms tax rate.

Using the WACC

The WACC makes it easy to value marginal

projects.

Use market values to find E and D.

Use past market returns to estimate rE and rD.

Use the accounting statement to get TC.

Once you have the WACC

Calculate the firms cash flows under the assumption

it is 100% equity financed.

Discount these cash flows at the WACC to get the PV.

Example: Marginal Industries

for NFL backup players. It is considering

the initiation of marketing project 5 at a cost

of 1 million. The firm hopes that project 5

will increase sales by convincing the NCAA

to purchase its clothing line. Assume sales

to the NCAA will have the same level of

market risk as the firms current business.

Marginal Industries

The Status Quo

Equity = 20 million

Debt = 10 million

Current return on MIs securities:

rE = 18%

rD = 8%

Firms tax rate:

TC = 40%

MI 5 Project

MI expects that the MI-5 project will

generate revenues of 5 million a year and

costs of 3 million per year starting in year

1.

MI expects these cash flows to continue in

perpetuity, but grow at a rate of 2% per

year.

Question: How much is the MI-5 project

worth?

Valuing the MI-5 Project

First calculate the cash flows under the

assumption the firm is all equity financed.

All Equity After Tax Cash Flow =

(1-TC)(Revenues-Costs) = .6(2) = 1.2.

Second calculate the WACC

10 20

WACC = .6.08 .18 .136.

10+20 10 20

Discount MI-5 with the WACC

And the answer is:

growing profit perpetuity.

PV = -1(.6) + 1.2/(.136-.02) = 9.74.

WACC

Valuing an Entire Firm

Good news:

You can get Tc from financial statements.

Debt values are often close to their book values. If

this is true for your firm you now have D.

rD can be obtained by looking at the historical return

to debt from firms with similar ratings.

Lazy persons solution use the coupon rate. This will over

estimate the cost of debt. Investors expect some debt issues

to go belly up and not pay off in full. Their expected return

is overall average return from those firms that pay in full and

those that do not.

If you are not sure what a rating is we will cover it later on

this semester.

WACC

Valuing an Entire Firm

Bad news:

You need E.

The I am not thinking solution: use the market value of the

equity.

But . . . you (for some reason) are trying to value the firm on

your own. If you are going to use the market value why go

through all this work? Here you are projecting out the cash

flows, finding the discount rate and getting a PV for what? Just

use the market value.

You need rE

Here you at least have some hope if you can figure out how

to calculate the equity beta without using the market value of

the equity.

If there are several firms in the industry and all have similar

capital structures you might try using the average return on the

industrys equity over the past several years.

Typical Solutions

1. Go with the I am not thinking method of

analysis.

Get E from the market price of the equity.

Get rE by using the historical beta on the

firms equity.

Project the cash flows and discount with the

WACC.

Solutions Continued

2. Use market data from comparable firms.

This can be combined with method 1.

Under this method you use debt and equity

values from comparable firms and then

apply the results to the firm you are

interested in.

If the firms differ in their capital structure you

will need to adjust the estimated betas to

account for this.

Adjusting returns for Leverage

Definition: A companys asset return (rA) is the

return associated with the cash flows it would

generate under all equity financing.

If the firm has a constant D/E ratio then:

D TC rD D TC rD

rE = rA 1+ 1- -rD 1- .

E 1+rD E 1+rD

How to Value Your Company

1. For each comparable firm estimate rA using the

previous formula (just rearrange for rA).

For each firm use its E, D, rD, rE, and TC.

2. Calculate the average value of rA and assume

that is the asset return for your firm.

3. Calculate the equity return using the previous

equation.

If You Like Betas Better

the return formula except that the rs

are now replaced with s.

D TC rD D TC rD

E = A 1+ 1- - D 1- .

E 1+rD E 1+rD

Do You Believe in the WACC?

If you really believe, why not also believe

that firms adjust their debt-equity ratio to

the target level 24 hours a day seven days

a week?

Why? Makes it really easy to calculate

asset betas!

Unlevering With When Debt-Equity

Ratio is Adjust Continuously

As the time between adjustments goes to zero, the per

period risk free rate rD goes to zero.

This causes the rD/(1+rD) terms in the equations relating

equity betas and returns to asset and debt betas and

returns to go to zero. Leaving:

D D

rE = rA 1+ -rD ,

E E

and

D D

E = A 1+ - D .

E E

Valuing Your Company

continued

4. Using your estimate for the equity beta

calculate rE.

5. Now calculate the WACC.

6. Project out the firms all equity cash

flows.

7. Discount at the WACC and declare

victory!

Problems with the Comparable

Firm WACC

For some reason you do not believe the

market is correctly valuing the firm you are

looking at.

But at the same time you seem to think the

market has correctly valued every other

firm in the industry.

Very handy pair of coincidences, no?

Yet Another Solution

3. You know what they say the third time is the

charm!

If you believe the firm will target its D/(D+E)

ratio to some number L, and that eventually

the market will get the firms value right then

you can use the Miles and Ezzell formula for

the WACC.

For use later on represent the Enterprise Value

as EV = D+E. In this notation L = D/EV.

Miles and Ezzell (ME) WACC

Formula

1+rA

WACC = rA - LTC rD .

1+rD

Looks easy but . . .

Where are you going to get rA from?

Back to the comparable firm method?

As an aside this is the formula used to derive

the relationship between rA, rD, and rE developed

before.

Some Questions

Based upon the ME formula setting L = 1

is optimal since the WACC declines as L

goes up!

Why?

What stops this from happening in the real

world?

What has the formula ignored as you change

L?

WACC Example

Golden Products (GP) has stated its long

term goal is to maintain a D/E ratio of .75.

Assume it has an asset beta of 1.618.

The firm will produce pre-tax profits of

$1.50 million next year. You expect this to

grow at a rate of 1% per year forever.

The firms tax rate is 30%

Assume rf = 5%, and rm = 15%.

How much is a share of GP worth?

Solution

Since GP will maintain a constant D/E ratio we

can use the WACC to value its cash flows.

rA = .05 + 1.618(.15-.05) = .2118

D D D/E .75 3

L= = = .

EV D+E D/E+1 1.75 7

Solution Continued

From the ME formula

3 1.2118

WACC = .2118 - .3 .05 .204381

7 1.05

Fill in the perpetuity formula to get GPs enterprise value

(EV).

EV =

1-.31.5 = 5.40 .

.204381-.01

To get the equity value subtract the value of the debt

from the enterprise value.

E = EV (D/EV)xEV = 5.4 (3/7) 5.4 = 3.087.

Target Amount of Debt

So far every problem has assumed the firm

maintains a target D/E ratio. Not every firm does

this.

Highly levered firms may be looking to reduce their

outstanding debt.

Firms with little debt may seek to increase it

substantially to finance a new project and then pay it

off.

If the ratio is not constant you cannot use WACC

to get the present value of the cash flows.

Adjusted Present Value

(APV)

APV = PV(All Equity Cash Flows) +

PV(Debt Tax Shield).

Advantages

Easy to use when a firm has a target dollar value of

debt.

Can be adjusted (with some work) for cases where a

firms dollar value of debt varies over time.

Can handle (again with some work) even the case

where the firm maintains a constant D/E ratio.

Constant $ Amount of Debt

Example

The Perpetual Rest Lounge Company (PRLC)

has $12 million in outstanding debt, and it does

not plan to either add to or subtract from this.

The firm pays interest on the debt at a rate of

5% per annum. Assume the debt is risk free.

Starting next year the firm expects to generate

earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $2

million, and that this figure will grow at a rate of

1% per year.

PRLC Continued

Assume

rf = 5%

rm = 15%

A = .8

Tc = .4

What is PRLCs enterprise value?

What is the value of PRLCs equity?

PRLC Solution

First calculate PRLCs value as an all

equity firm. In this case it produces after

tax profits of (1-.4)2 = 1.2 in year 1 and

this grows at 1% per year.

Since the asset beta is .8, its

rA = .05+.8(.15-.05) = .13.

PV(All Equity) = 1.2/(.13-.01) = 10.

PRLC Continued

Now calculate the PV of the debt tax shield.

The company pays 12.05 = 0.6 in interest each year.

This generates a tax shield of 0.6.4 = .24 per year.

Because this amount never varies and is risk free

PV(Debt Tax Shield) = .24/.05 = 4.8.

EV of PRLC =

PV(All Equity Cash Flows) +

PV(Debt Tax Shield) =

10 + 4.8 = 14.8.

Note: Since PRLC is growing its D/E ratio declines over

time! It does not maintain a constant D/E ratio so the

WACC will not generate the correct EV for the firm.

Asset to Equity Betas

Constant Amount of Debt Case

E D 1-TC

rA = rE +rD .

E+D 1-TC E+D 1-TC

E D 1-TC

A = E + D .

E+D 1-TC E+D 1-TC

Adjusting the APV

Constant D/E Ratio Case

The APV can be adjusted to handle the

very case the WACC is designed for: the

constant D/E case.

The key to understanding how is through

the famous question, Just how much debt

will you have and when will you know it?

An example will explain why.

Valuing Golden Products with the

APV

The first part is relatively easy

Calculate the value of the firm without any

debt financing.

After tax cash flows start at 1.5.7 = 1.05 and grow

at 1% per year.

Have rA equal to .2118.

All Equity Value

All Equity Value =

1.05/(.2118-.01) =5.203171

Yes, a lot of decimal places but we want to

show the APV gives the same exact answer

as the WACC when both are calculated

correctly.

Debt Tax Shield

Calculating the PV of the debt tax shield is

somewhat tricky until you get the hang of it.

The problem is the amount of debt the firm will

have outstanding depends on how well it does

over time.

Good years more debt higher tax shield.

Bad years less debt lower tax shield.

Tax shield is pro-cyclical with the economy as so has

a positive beta!

From the original problem D starts at 2.32. Use

that to begin the debt tax shield calculation.

The Tax Shield: What do You

Know and When?

The following table describes the expected debt

tax shield. Arrows indicate which debt amounts

generate which tax shields.

0 2.32

1 2.34 2.32.05.3=.0348

2 2.36 .0351

3 2.39 .0355

Expectations vs. Realizations

The year one debt level produces the year

two tax shield.

In year one you will know with certainty

what the year two tax shield will be.

Prior to that you are not certain.

The firm is expected to grow at a rate of 1%

per year. In actuality it may grow faster or

slower. That will impact the amount of debt it

will eventually have.

Numerical Example

Each year the firms value goes up by

either 22% or down by 20% with equal

probability. Notice that on average it

grows at 1%.

Year 0: No debt tax shield

Year 1 Debt Tax Shield

Year 1 Good Bad

Economy

Year 1

Tax Shield 2.32.05.3 = .0348 .0348

Debt 2.321.22 = 2.83 2.32.8 = 1.856

Today you know for sure what next periods tax shield

will be. Therefore you get its present value by

discounting at the risk free rate of .05, assuming its debt

is risk free.

PV(Year 1 tax shield) = .0348/1.05.

Year 2

Year 1 Good Good Bad Bad

Economy

Year 2 Good Bad Good Bad

Economy

Year 2

Year 2 Tax Shield Discounted

Today you do not know with certainty what the period 2 tax shield

will equal.

Depends upon whether year 1 is good or bad.

Does not depend on whether year 2 is good or bad. I

Impacted by just one year of market risk.

Year 2 tax shield is known for sure when we reach year 1.

Discount the expected tax shield back from year 2 to year 1 using the

risk free rate of 5%.

Between today and year 1, the amount of debt (and hence the year

2 tax shield) will increase or decrease in proportion to the firms

value. It has the same risk as the enterprise as a whole.

Use the same discount rate as for the firms assets, 21.18%, to discount

back from year 1 to the present.

PV(Year 2 tax shield) = .0348/(1.051.2118).

Year t Tax Shield

This is determined by the amount of debt outstanding in

year t-1, which goes up or down in proportion to the

value of the firm for t-1 years.

Then is known for sure as of year t-1.

Discount back from year t to t-1 using the risk free rate,

5%.

From year t-1 to today using the appropriate rate for the

firms assets, 21.18%.

PV of the Debt Tax Shield

PV (tax shields) =

.0348/1.05 +

.03481.01/(1.051.2118) +

.03481.012/(1.05 1.21182) +

=.0348/1.05 +

[.0348/(.2118-.01)][1.01/1.05]

= .199

APV Solution

APV = PV(All Equity Firm) + PV(Debt Tax

Shield).

APV = 5.203171+.199 = 5.40.

APV Your Friend in Tough Times

Many people use the WACC to value the cash

flows for any project any firm undertakes.

WACC only accurate if the firm maintains a

constant debt to equity ratio.

What if the firm only adjusts its debt to maintain

a constant debt to equity ratio once and a while

rather than every period? How many firms issue

debt every quarter or even every year?

How poorly will WACC perform?

How do you discount the cash flows with the

APV to get the exact answer?

Example: Only a Somewhat

Constant Debt to Equity Ratio

Sams Toasters and Appliances (STA)

STA (known in the industry by the less flattering nickname Slow To

Adjust) has decided to expand into the market for stereo equipment.

STA believes that the expansion will produce an additional $400,000

in profits per year starting in year one and that these profits will grow

at a rate of 2% per year.

The expansion will cost STA $1,000,000.

Initial financing $700,000 in risk free debt. The rest with equity.

This is in line with the firms current debt equity policy.

As in the past, the firm will adjust its debt equity ratio every other

year in order to restore the debt-equity ratio to its current value.

Overall Assumptions

Beta of the profits equal 1.2.

rf = .05

rm = .15

Tc = .4

All Equity Value

The discount rate equals .05 + 1.2(.15-

.05) = .17.

With all equity financing the firm keeps

(1.4)400000 = 240,000 per year starting in year

1 with an expected growth rate of 2%.

All equity value of the project equals the initial

cost plus the present value of the profits or:

1000000 + 240000/(.17-.02) = 600,000.

Deciphering the Next Table

Diagonal arrows indicate which debt amounts

produce which tax shields.

Arrows pointing straight down indicate when one

debt amount will automatically equals the

amount of debt in the previous year.

The problem states that the firm only adjusts its debt-

equity ratio every other year. Thus, once you know

the amount of debt taken out in year 0 you know how

much debt the firm will have in year 1.

Similarly when you know how much debt the firm has

in year 2 you will also know how much debt it has

outstanding in year 3.

Tracking the Debt Tax Shield

Year Expected Debt Level Expected Tax Shield

0 700,000

1 700,000 .05(.4)(700000)=14000

2 1.022700000=728,280 .05(.4)(700000)=14000

3 1.022700000=728,280 .05(.4)(728280)=14565.6

4 1.024700000=757,702.51 .05(.4)(728280)=14565.6

PV of the Debt Tax Shield: Year 1

You discount the first years tax shield by

the risk free rate since you know with

certainty what it will be as of today. There

is no market risk.

PV of the Debt Tax Shield: Year 2

You twice discount the second years tax

shield by the risk free rate.

The firm only adjusts its debt-equity ratio

every other year. Year 0 debt value fixes the

year 2 debt tax shield. There is no

uncertainty.

Since it arrives two periods hence you

discount it twice at the risk free rate.

PV of the Debt Tax Shield: Year 3

You know the exact value of the year 3 tax

shield in year 2.

There are 2 periods of market risk associated

with its value.

Discount twice at the assets discount rate of 17%.

Once year 2 arrives you know with certainty the

year 3's tax shield.

One year should be discounted at the risk free rate.

PV of the Debt Tax Shield: Year 4

You know the exact value of the year 4 tax

shield in year 2.

There are 2 periods of market risk associated

with its value.

Discount twice at the 17% rate.

Once year 2 arrives you will know with certainty

the year 4 tax shield.

Discount twice at the risk free rate of 5%.

PV Tax Shields

14000 14000 1.022 14000 1.024

PV (Odd Years)

1.05 1.05 1.17 2

1.05 1.17 4

1.05 1.05 1.316 1.3162 1.3163

55,561.64.

To go from line one of the above equation to line two note

that 1.316 = (1.17/1.02)2.

14000 14000 1.022 14000 1.024

PV ( Even Years)

1.052

1.05 1.17

2 2

1.05 1.17

2 4

1.052 1.052 1.316 1.3162 1.3163

52,915.85.

Total Value of the Debt Tax Shield

PV(Total Tax Shield) = 55,561.64 +

52,915.85 = 108,477.49.

Therefore the APV of the project equals

600,000 + 108,477.49 = 708,477.49.

While that was a lot of work it does show

how flexible the APV is!

WACC: How Far Off?

How far off would the calculation have been if

the WACC had been applied instead?

In order to apply the WACC we need both the

initial debt to equity ratio, and the return on

equity.

The calculations that follow are not right! They

assume that the firm will maintain a constant

debt-equity ratio and it does not!

Our goal is to find out how far off we would

have been by mindlessly applying the WACC.

WACC Calculations

The entire project is really worth 708,477.49,

and presumably the market knows this. Thus, if

you looked up the value of the equity for the

project in year 0 it would equal

of the debt issued to finance it. So it would

appear the firm uses a debt-equity ratio of

700000/8,477.49 = 82.57!

WACC: rE Calculation

From before the formula relating the equity, debt, and

asset returns under the WACC:

D TC rD D TC rD

rE = rA 1+ 1- -rD 1- .

E 1+rD E 1+rD

Filling this in with the information we have:

.4 .05 .4 .05

rE .17 1 82.57 1 .05 82.57 1

1.05 1.05

1,072% due to the very high debt equity ratio!

The WACC

82.57 1

WACC .05(1 .4) 10.72

1 82.57 1 82.57

so WACC = .1579.

the WACC is

projects value.

Where Does the WACC Go

Wrong?

The WACC assumes the firm readjusts its debt-

equity ratio every year.

In reality this firm only does so every other year.

Among other errors:

Every other year when the firm has not adjusted its D/E ratio,

the WACC assumes it did.

This causes the WACC to use too large a value for the

expected tax shield in those years.

Of course, the error is even larger for firms that

adjusts their debt-equity ratio even less

frequently.

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