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Reliability Engineering Outline
• Reliability definition • Reliability estimation • System reliability calculations
The probability that no (system) failure will occur in a given time interval A reliable system is one that meets the specifications Do you accept this?
6 million of its personal computer batteries • Products are discontinued because of fatal accidents (Pinto.Reliability Importance • One of the most important characteristics of a product. the Sony Corporation recalled up to 9. it is a measure of its performance with time (Transatlantic and Transpacific cables) • Products’ recalls are common (only after time elapses). Concord) • Medical devices and organs (reliability of artificial organs) 4 . In October 2006.
Reliability Definitions Reliability is a time dependent characteristic. It can only be determined after an elapsed time but can be predicted at any time. 5 . It is the probability that a product or service will operate properly for a specified period of time (design life) under the design operating conditions without failure.
this means that a system has a specified chance that it will operate without failure before time . This constraint is necessary because it is impossible to design a system for unlimited conditions. reliability is predicated on "intended function:" Generally. Reliability : the ability of a system or component to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time •Reliability Engineering: is an engineering field. that same rover. reliability is a probability. This means that failure is regarded as a random phenomenon: it is a recurring event. even if no individual part of the system fails. Also. then it is still charged against the system reliability. may be required to operate in varying conditions requiring additional scrutiny . this is taken to mean operation without failure. reliability applies to a specified period of time. The system requirements specification is the criterion against which reliability is measured –Third. that deals with the study of reliability and is concerned with meeting the specified probability of success. (in terms of miles. or relationships between failures. the causes of failures. However. The operating environment must be addressed during design and testing. gun fire etc. at a specified statistical confidence level •KEY DEFINITIONS OF RELIABILITY –First. except that the likelihood for failures to occur varies over time according to the given probability function.Reliability is …. A Mars Rover will have different specified conditions than the family car. –Second.) –Fourth. but the system as a whole does not do what was intended. reliability is restricted to operation under stated conditions. and we do not express any information on individual failures. Reliability engineering ensures that components and materials will meet the requirements during the specified time. In practical terms.
RELIABILITY is …. •VARIANCE: is the expected square deviation of that variable from its expected value or mean. •Reliability : the ability of a system or component to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time •Availability :Availability of the module is the percentage of time when system is operational. is the time taken to repair a failed hardware module. which is also called the population mean. •MEAN: the expected value of a random variable. In an operational system. repair generally means replacing the hardware module. Availability of a hardware/software module can be obtained by the formula given below. is the average time between failure of hardware modules. •MTBF: Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF). It is the average time a manufacturer estimates before a failure occurs in a hardware module. . as the name suggests. •MTTR : Mean Time To Repair (MTTR).
What do Reliability Engineers Do? • Implement Reliability Engineering Programs across all functions – Engineering – Research – manufacturing – Testing – Packaging – field service .
How to Make A System Reliable Maintenance Product Manufacturing ? System overview Component determination System design Component design or purchase Reliability testing & data analyses ? .
Reliability as a Process module INPUT • • • • • Reliability Goals Schedule time Budget Dollars Test Units Design Data Reliability Assurance Module Internal Methods •Design Rules •Components Testing •Subsystem Testing •Architectural Strategy •Life Testing •Prototype testing •Field Testing •Reliability Predictions (models) Product Assurance .
Early product failure • Strongest effect on customer satisfaction – A field day for competitors • The most expensive to repair – – – – Why? Rings through the entire production system High volume Long C/T (cycle time) • Examples from GE (but problem not confined to GE!) – GE Variable Power module for House Air Conditioning – GE Refrigerators – GE Cellular .
Early Product Failure • Can be catastrophic for human life – Challenger. Columbia – Titanic – DC 10 – Auto design – Aircraft Engine – Military equipment .
000 100.01 97.999% Component Reliability = 99.50 99.75 99.48 36.53 95.99% 100 250 500 1000 10.01 .79 99.01 90.48 36.9 99.Reliability as a function of System Complexity Why computers made of tubes (or discrete transistors) cannot be made to work # of components in Series Component Reliability = 99.000 99.79 0.12 90.
Repair mentality Burn-in • • • • • Maintenance In service testing • .Three Classifications of Reliability Failure Type Early (infant mortality) Wearout (physical degradation) Chance (overstress) Old Remedy.
Bathtub Curve Infant Mortality Useful life No memory No improvement No wear-out Random causes Wear out Failure Rate #/million hours Time .
Reliability 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 2 5 12 16 19 30 50 70 86 Prob of dying in the next year (deaths/ 1000) Age From the Statistical Bulletin 79. Jan-Mar 1998 . no 1.
Chance Failures (Occur throughout the life a product at a constant rate) • • • • • Insufficient safety factors in design Higher than expected random loads Human errors Misapplication Developing world concerns .
Wear-out (Occur late in life and increase with age) • • • • • • • Aging degradation in strength Materials Fatigue Creep Corrosion Poor maintenance Developing World Concerns .
Failure Types • • • • Catastrophic Degradation Drift Intermittent .
Failure Effects (What customer experiences) • • • • • • • • • • • Noise Erratic operation Inoperability Instability Intermittent operation Impaired Control Impaired operation Roughness Excessive effort requirements Unpleasant or unusual odor Poor appearance .
Failure Modes • • • • • • • • • • • • Cracking Deformation Wear Corrosion Loosening Leaking Sticking Electrical shorts Electrical opens Oxidation Vibration Fracturing .
preventative maintenance. testing.Reliability Remedies • Early • Quality manufacture/Robust Design • Physically-based models. Robust design (FMEA) • Tight customer linkages. HAST • Wearout • Chance .
Some Initial Thoughts Warranty • Will you buy additional warranty? Burn in and removal of early failures. • (Lemon Law). E a r l y F C F a o a i l u n r e s F a ilu re R a te s t a i l u r e I n c nF t a RR aa r e i l u tt ee a s i n r e g T i m e 23 .
It can also be specified as a proportion of time that the system is available for use in a given interval (0.Other Measures of Reliability Availability is used for repairable systems It is the probability that the system is operational at any random time t. 24 .T).
Some Initial Thoughts Repairable and Non-Repairable Another measure of reliability is availability (probability that the system provides its functions when needed). M a x i Rm e u l im a l be iv l i et y l W it h R e p a irs N o Rep a irs R e lia b ility T i m e 25 .
26 . It does not provide information about the distribution of the TTF.Other Measures of Reliability Mean Time To Failure (MTTF): It is the average time that elapses until a failure occurs. Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF): It is the average time between successive failures. hence we need to estimate the variance of the TTF. It is used for repairable systems.
Mean Time to Failure: MTTF MTTF = ∫ tf (t )dt = ∫ R (t )dt 0 0 ∞ ∞ 1 n MTTF = ∑ ti n i =1 1 2 2 is better than 1? )t( R 1 0 Time t 27 .
Mean Time Between Failure: MTBF 28 .
or a system has survived to time t. 29 . 1 ∞ L(t ) = E[T − t | T ≥ t ] = ∫ τ f (τ )d τ − t R (t ) t Failure Rate (FITs failures in 109 hours): The failure rate in a time interval [ t1 −t2 ] is the probability that a failure per unit time occurs in the interval given that no failure has occurred prior to the beginning of the interval. Hazard Function: It is the limit of the failure rate as the length of the interval approaches zero.Other Measures of Reliability Mean Residual Life (MRL): It is the expected remaining life. given that the product. component. T-t.
then the MTTF. t+∆t). ˆ (t ) = n f (t ) f n0 ∆t ˆ (t ) = P (T > t ) = ns (t ) R r n0 ˆ (t ) = n f (t ) . λ ns (t )∆t 30 . hazard rate.Basic Calculations Suppose n0 identical units are subjected to a test. During the interval (t. Let ns(t) be the surviving components at time t. and reliability at time t are: MTTF = ∑t i =1 n0 i n0 . we observed nf(t) failed components. failure density.
Basic Definitions Cont’d F( t ) = 1− R t ) ( The unreliab Time Interval (Hours) 0-1000 1001-2000 2001-3000 3001-4000 4001-5000 5001-6000 6001-7000 Total Failures in the interval 100 40 20 15 10 8 7 200 31 .
0 100 200 10 × = 5.0 = 3.0 40 100 × 10 20 60 × 10 3 = 4.33 7 200 × 10 3 = 0.35 7 7× 10 3 = 10 32 .Calculations Time Interval Failures (Hours) in the interval 0-1000 1001-2000 2001-3000 3001-4000 4001-5000 5001-6000 6001-7000 Total 100 40 20 15 10 8 7 200 Time 100 200 10 × 3 f (t ) 10−4 h (t ) 10−4 3 = 5.0 Interval 3 3 20 200 × 10 = 1.0 40 2 00 10 × 3 =2 .
Time ×10-4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 x 103 Time in hours 33 .Failure Density vs.
Hazard Rate vs. Time ×10-4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 × 103 Time in Hours 34 .
1000 1001.5 60/ 200=0.33 …… 0.35/ 10=.Calculations Time Interval Failures (Hours) in the interval 0-1000 1001-2000 2001-3000 3001-4000 4001-5000 5001-6000 6001-7000 Total 100 40 20 15 10 8 7 200 Time Interval 0.035 35 .2000 2001.3000 …… 6001.0 100/ 200=0.7000 R Reliability (t ) 200/ 200=1.
Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 x 103 Time in hours 36 .Reliability vs.
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