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Chapter 3 Probability
3-1 Overview 3-2 Fundamentals 3-3 Addition Rule 3-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics 3-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional Probability 3-6 Probabilities Through Simulations 3-7 Counting

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Section 3-1 & 3-2 Overview & Fundamentals
Created by Tom Wegleitner, Centreville, Virginia

Inc. we conclude that the assumption is probably not correct. .Overview Slide 4 Rare Event Rule for Inferential Statistics: If. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. the probability of a particular observed event (such as five consecutive lottery wins) is extremely small. under a given assumption (such as a lottery being fair).

Definitions  Event Slide 5 Any collection of results or outcomes of a procedure. .  Sample Space Consists of all possible simple events. That is. Inc.  Simple Event An outcome or an event that cannot be further broken down into simpler components. the sample space consists of all outcomes that cannot be broken down any further. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

P (A) denotes the probability of event A occurring.denotes a probability. A. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. B. . Inc.denote specific events. and C .Notation for Probabilities Slide 6 P .

and count the number of times event A actually occurs. Based on these actual results. . Inc.Basic Rules for Computing Probability of Probability Slide 7 Rule 1: Relative Frequency Approximation Conduct (or observe) a procedure a large number of times. P(A) is estimated as follows: P(A) = number of times A occurred number of times trial was repeated Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

then s = P(A) = n number of ways A can occur number of different simple events Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. If event A can occur in s of these n ways. Inc.Basic Rules for Computing Probability (Requires Equally Likely Outcomes) Slide 8 Rule 2: Classical Approach to Probability Assume that a given procedure has n different simple events and that each of those simple events has an equal chance of occurring. .

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. is found by simply guessing or estimating its value based on knowledge of the relevant circumstances. . the probability of event A. Inc.Basic Rules for Computing Probability Rule 3: Subjective Probabilities Slide 9 P(A).

Inc. . Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. the relative frequency probability (from Rule 1) of an event tends to approach the actual probability.Law of Large Numbers Slide 10 As a procedure is repeated again and again.

. we use the classical approach (Rule 2) to get 37 P(loss) = 38 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Among these 38 slots. What is the probability that you will lose? Solution A roulette wheel has 38 different slots. Because the sample space includes equally likely outcomes. there are 37 that result in a loss. A roulette wheel is designed so that the 38 slots are equally likely.Example Slide 11 Roulette You plan to bet on number 13 on the next spin of a roulette wheel. only one of which is the number 13. Inc.

. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.  0 e P(A) e 1 for any event A.  The probability of an event that is certain to occur is 1.Probability Limits Slide 12  The probability of an impossible event is 0. Inc.

.Possible Values for Probabilities Slide 13 Figure 3-2 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc.

denoted by A. Inc.Definition Slide 14 The complement of event A. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . consists of all outcomes in which the event A does not occur.

. 105 of whom are boys. If one baby is randomly selected from the group. it follows that 100 of them are girls. so P(not selecting a boy) = P(boy) = P(girl) ! 100 ! 0.488 205 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Example Birth Genders In reality. more boys are born than girls. Inc. what is the probability that the baby is not a boy? Slide 15 Solution Because 105 of the 205 babies are boys. In one typical group. there are 205 newborn babies.

Inc. either give the exact fraction or decimal or round off final decimal results to three significant digits.) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Rounding Off Probabilities Slide 16 When expressing the value of a probability. express it as a decimal so that the number can be better understood. . (Suggestion: When the probability is not a simple fraction such as 2/3 or 5/9.

If the odds against A are a:b. . Inc.  The payoff odds against event A represent the ratio of the net profit (if you win) to the amount bet. usually expressed in the form of a:b (or ³a to b´). where a and b are integers having no common factors.  The actual odds in favor event A occurring are the reciprocal of the actual odds against the event. then the odds in favor of A are b:a.Definitions Slide 17  The actual odds against event A occurring are the ratio P(A)/P(A). payoff odds against event A = (net profit) : (amount bet) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

Recap In this section we have discussed:  Rare event rule for inferential statistics.  Probability rules.  Odds.  Complementary events.  Law of large numbers. Slide 18 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.  Rounding off probabilities. . Inc.

Slide 19 Section 3-3 Addition Rule Created by Tom Wegleitner. Virginia Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . Inc. Centreville.

Inc.Definition Compound Event Any event combining 2 or more simple events Slide 20 Notation P(A or B) = P (event A occurs or event B occurs or they both occur) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. .

but find the total in such a way that no outcome is counted more than once. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. find the total number of ways A can occur and the number of ways B can occur.General Rule for a Compound Event Slide 21 When finding the probability that event A occurs or event B occurs. Inc. .

In the sample space. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. P(A or B) is equal to that sum. Inc. adding in such a way that every outcome is counted only once. . divided by the total number of outcomes.Compound Event Formal Addition Rule P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) ± P(A and B) Slide 22 where P(A and B) denotes the probability that A and B both occur at the same time as an outcome in a trial or procedure. find the sum of the number of ways event A can occur and the number of ways event B can occur. Intuitive Addition Rule To find P(A or B).

Figures 3-4 and 3-5 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc.Definition Slide 23 Events A and B are disjoint (or mutually exclusive) if they cannot both occur together. .

Inc. Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Example Titanic Passengers Survived Died Total Men 332 1360 1692 Women 318 104 422 Boys 29 35 64 Girls 27 18 56 Slide 25 Totals 706 1517 2223 Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy. .

Example Survived Died Total Men 332 1360 1692 Women 318 104 422 Boys 29 35 64 Girls 27 18 56 Slide 26 Totals 706 1517 2223 Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or a boy. P(man or boy) = 1692 + 64 = 1756 = 0.790 2223 2223 2223 * Disjoint * Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . Inc.

. Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc.Example Survived Died Total Men 332 1360 1692 Women 318 104 422 Boys 29 35 64 Girls 27 18 45 Slide 27 Totals 706 1517 2223 Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who survived.

.Example Survived Died Total Men 332 1360 1692 Women 318 104 422 Boys 29 35 64 Girls 27 18 45 Slide 28 Totals 706 1517 2223 Find the probability of randomly selecting a man or someone who survived.929 * NOT Disjoint * Adapted from Exercises 9 thru 12 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc. P(man or survivor) = 1692 + 706 ± 332 = 2066 2223 2223 2223 2223 = 0.

Complementary Events Slide 29 P(A) and P(A) are mutually exclusive All simple events are either in A or A. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc. .

Rules of Complementary Events Slide 30 P(A) + P(A) = 1 P(A) = 1 ± P(A) P(A) = 1 ± P(A) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . Inc.

Venn Diagram for the Complement of Event A Slide 31 Figure 3-7 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . Inc.

Inc.Recap In this section we have discussed:  Compound events.  Intuitive addition rule.  Complementary events.  Formal addition rule.  Disjoint Events. Slide 32 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. .

. Virginia Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Slide 33 Section 3-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics Created by Tom Wegleitner. Centreville. Inc.

Notation

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P(A and B) = P(event A occurs in a first trial and event B occurs in a second trial)

Tree Diagrams

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A tree diagram is a picture of the possible outcomes of a procedure, shown as line segments emanating from one starting point. These diagrams are helpful in counting the number of possible outcomes if the number of possibilities is not too large.

Figure 3-8 summarizes the possible outcomes for a true/false followed by a multiple choice question. Note that there are 10 possible combinations.

Genetics Experiment experiments involved peas, like those shown in Figure 3-3 (below). If two of the peas shown in the figure are randomly selected without replacement, find the probability that the first selection has a green pod and the second has a yellow pod.

Exampl e Mendel¶s famous hybridization

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64 14 13 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Example . . we have P( First pea with green pod and second pea with yellow pod) = 8 6 y } .Solution Slide 37 First selection: P(green pod) = 8/14 (14 peas. 6 of which have yellow pods) With P(first pea with green pod) = 8/14 and P(second pea with yellow pod) = 6/13. 8 of which have green pods) Second selection: P(yellow pod) = 6/13 (13 peas remaining. Inc.

Inc.Example Important Principle Slide 38 The preceding example illustrates the important principle that the probability for the second event B should take into account the fact that the first event A has already occurred. . Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

Inc.´) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. .Notation for Conditional Probability Slide 39 P(B A) represents the probability of event B occurring after it is assumed that event A has already occurred (read B A as ³B given A.

) If A and B are not independent.Definitions Slide 40 Independent Events Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. they are said to be dependent. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. (Several events are similarly independent if the occurrence of any does not affect the occurrence of the others. Inc. .

. P(B A) is really the same as P(B) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Formal Multiplication Rule  P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B A) Slide 41  Note that if A and B are independent events. Inc.

Inc. but be sure that the probability of event B takes into account the previous occurrence of event A. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Intuitive Multiplication Rule Slide 42 When finding the probability that event A occurs in one trial and B occurs in the next trial. multiply the probability of event A by the probability of event B. .

Inc. .Applying the Multiplication Rule Slide 43 Figure 3-9 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc. so they are technically dependent).Small Samples from Large Populations Slide 44 If a sample size is no more than 5% of the size of the population. treat the selections as being independent (even if the selections are made without replacement. .

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Summary of Fundamentals Slide 45  In the addition rule. . Add P(A) and P(B). Inc. the word ³and´ in P(A and B) suggests multiplication. Multiply P(A) and P(B). being careful to add in such a way that every outcome is counted only once.  In the multiplication rule. the word ³or´ on P(A or B) suggests addition. but be sure that the probability of event B takes into account the previous occurrence of event A.

Inc. Slide 46 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.  Notation for conditional probability. .  Independent events.  Formal and intuitive multiplication rules.  Tree diagrams.Recap In this section we have discussed:  Notation for P(A and B).

Centreville. Virginia Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Slide 47 Section 3-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional Probability Created by Tom Wegleitner. Inc. .

Complements: The Probability of ³At Least One´ Slide 48  ³At least one´ is equivalent to ³one or more.´  The complement of getting at least one item of a particular type is that you get no items of that type. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc. .

Example Slide 49 Gender of Children Find the probability of a couple having at least 1 girl among 3 children. let A = at least 1 of the 3 children is a girl. Inc. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Solution Step 1: Use a symbol to represent the event desired. Assume that boys and girls are equally likely and that the gender of a child is independent of the gender of any brothers or sisters. In this case. .

. P(A) = P(boy and boy and boy) 1 1 1 1 ! y y ! 2 2 2 8 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc.Example Solution (cont) Slide 50 Step 2: Identify the event that is the complement of A. A = not getting at least 1 girl among 3 children = all 3 children are boys = boy and boy and boy Step 3: Find the probability of the complement.

Slide 51 1 7 P ( A) ! 1  P ( A) ! 1  ! 8 8 Interpretation There is a 7/8 probability that if a couple has 3 children. . Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. at least 1 of them is a girl.Example Solution (cont) Step 4: Find P(A) by evaluating 1 ± P(A). Inc.

P(at least one) = 1 ± P(none) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Key Principle Slide 52 To find the probability of at least one of something. That is. calculate the probability of none. then subtract that result from 1. Inc. .

given that A has already occurred. Inc. . P(B A) denotes the conditional probability of event B occurring. and it can be found by dividing the probability of events A and B both occurring by the probability of event A: P(B A) = P(A and B) P(A) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Definition Slide 53 A conditional probability of an event is a probability obtained with the additional information that some other event has already occurred.

working under that assumption. Inc. calculating the probability that event B will occur. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. .Intuitive Approach to Conditional Probability Slide 54 The conditional probability of B given A can be found by assuming that event A has occurred and.

Testing for Independence Slide 55 In Section 3-4 we stated that events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other. This suggests the following test for independence: Two events A and B are independent if Two events A and B are dependent if P(B A) = P(B) or P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) P(B A) = P(B) or P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . Inc.

 Intuitive approach to conditional probability. Slide 56 Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc.´  Conditional probability.Recap In this section we have discussed:  Concept of ³at least one.  Testing for independence. .

Inc.Slide 57 Section 3-6 Probabilities Through Simulations Created by Tom Wegleitner. . Virginia Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Centreville.

so that similar results are produced. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . Inc.Definition Slide 58 A simulation of a procedure is a process that behaves the same way as the procedure.

Inc. . such as the probability of getting at least 60 girls among 100 children.Simulation Example Slide 59 Gender Selection When testing techniques of gender selection. medical researchers need to know probability values of different outcomes. Assuming that male and female births are equally likely. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. describe a simulation that results in genders of 100 newborn babies.

.Simulation Examples Solution 1: Slide 60 Flipping a fair coin where heads = female and tails = male H H T male H female T male T male H male H female H female H female          female female Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc.

.Simulation Examples Solution 1: Slide 61 Flipping a fair coin where heads = female and tails = male H H T male H female T male T male H male H female H female H female          female female Solution2: Generating 0¶s and 1¶s with a computer or calculator where 0 = male 1 = female 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 male          male male female male female female female male male Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. Inc.

 A random table of digits  STATDISK  Minitab  Excel  TI-83 Plus calculator Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . random numbers are used in the simulation naturally occurring events. Below are some ways to generate random numbers.Random Numbers Slide 62 In many experiments. Inc.

Recap Slide 63 In this section we have discussed:  The definition of a simulation.  How to create a simulation. Inc. .  Ways to generate random numbers. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

Slide 64 Section 3-7 Counting Created by Tom Wegleitner. . Inc. Centreville. Virginia Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

the events together can occur a total of m n ways. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. .Fundamental Counting Rule Slide 65 For a sequence of two events in which the first event can occur m ways and the second event can occur n ways. Inc.

Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. !! y y y ! .Notation Slide 66 The factorial symbol ! Denotes the product of decreasing positive whole numbers. For example. 0! = . . Inc. By special definition.

(This factorial rule reflects the fact that the first item may be selected in n different ways.Factorial Rule Slide 67 A collection of n different items can be arranged in order n! different ways. Inc. . and so on.) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. the second item may be selected in n ± 1 ways.

Permutations Rule (when items are all different) Slide 68 The number of permutations (or sequences) of r items selected from n available items (without replacement is nPr = n! (n . Inc.r)! Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. .

.)  We must select r of the n items (without replacement. (This rule does not apply if some items are identical to others.)  We must consider rearrangements of the same items to be different sequences. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.Permutation Rule: Conditions Slide 69  We must have a total of n different items available. Inc.

nk alike. Inc. .. . . .Permutations Rule Slide 70 ( when some items are identical to others ) If there are n items with n1 alike. . n2 alike. . . . nk! Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. . . the number of permutations of all n items is n! n1! . n2! .

Inc. .Combinations Rule Slide 71 The number of combinations of r items selected from n different items is n! nCr = (n .r )! r! Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.

Inc.)  We must consider rearrangements of the same items to be the same. (The combination ABC is the same as CBA.Combinations Rule: Conditions Slide 72  We must have a total of n different items available.) Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. .  We must select r of the n items (without replacement.

Permutations versus Combinations Slide 73 When different orderings of the same items are to be counted separately. . Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education. but when different orderings are not to be counted separately. we have a combination problem. Inc. we have a permutation problem.

Slide 74 .)  The combinations rule.Recap In this section we have discussed:  The fundamental counting rule. Inc. Copyright © 2004 Pearson Education.  The permutations rule (when items are all different.)  The permutations rule (when some items are identical to others.  The factorial rule.