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Ch 04: Markov Processes

ELEXM 621 Random Process and Queuing


Theorem
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rashid A. Saeed
MSC Comp and Comm
Elex, FoE, SUST,
Agenda

Memoryless Information
Processes
Markov Processes and n-gram
Models
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Description
Sometimes we are interested in how a random
variable changes over time.
The study of how a random variable evolves
over time includes stochastic processes.
An explanation of stochastic processes – in
particular, a type of stochastic process known
as a Markov chain is included.
We begin by defining the concept of a
stochastic process.
A continuous –time Markov Chain (CTMC)
A Discrete –time Markov Chain (DTMC)
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What is a Markov Chain?
 One special type of discrete-time is called a Markov
Chain.
 Definition: A discrete-time stochastic process is a
Markov chain if, for t = 0,1,2… and all states
P(Xt+1 = it+1|Xt = it, Xt-1=it-1,…,X1=i1, X0=i0)
=P(Xt+1=it+1|Xt = it)
 Essentially this says that the probability distribution of
the state at time t+1 depends on the state at time t(it)
and does not depend on the states the chain passed
through on the way to it at time t.

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 In our study of Markov chains, we make further
assumption that for all states i and j and all t,
P(Xt+1 = j|Xt = i) is independent of t.
 This assumption allows us to write P(Xt+1 = j|Xt
= i) = pij where pij is the probability that given
the system is in state i at time t, it will be in a
state j at time t+1.
 If the system moves from state i during one
period to state j during the next period, we call
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that a transition from i to j has occurred.
Dr. Rashid A. Saeed
 We call the vector q= [q1, q2,…qs] the initial probability
distribution for the Markov chain.
 In most applications, the transition probabilities are displayed
as an s x s transition probability matrix P. The transition
probability matrix P may be written as

 p11 p12  p1s 


p p22  p2 s 
P   21
    
 
 ps1 ps 2  pss 

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 For each I
j s

p
j 1
ij 1

 We also know that each entry in the P matrix must be


nonnegative.
 Hence, all entries in the transition probability matrix are
nonnegative, and the entries in each row must sum to 1.

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Markov processes

ashid A. Saeed
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The Gambler’s Ruin Problem
 At time 0, I have $2. At times 1, 2, …, I play a game
in which I bet $1, with probabilities p, I win the
game, and with probability 1 – p, I lose the game.
My goal is to increase my capital to $4, and as soon
as I do, the game is over. The game is also over if my
capital is reduced to 0.
 Let Xt represent my capital position after the time
t game (if any) is played
 X0, X1, X2, …. May be viewed as a discrete-time
stochastic process

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The Gambler’s Ruin Problem
 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4

 1 0 0 0 0
1  p 0 p 0 0
 
P = 0 1 p 0 p 0
 0 0 1  p 0 p

 0 0 0 0 1 

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The Cola Example
 Suppose the entire cola industry produces only two colas.
 Given that a person last purchased cola 1, there is a 90%
chance that their next purchase will be cola 1.
 Given that a person last purchased cola 2, there is an 80%
chance that their next purchase will be cola 2.
1. If a person is currently a cola 2 purchaser, what is the
probability that they will purchase cola 1 two purchases from
now?
2. If a person is currently a cola 1 a purchaser, what is the
probability that they will purchase cola 1 three purchases
from now?

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20%
2 1 90%
80%
The Cola Example
10%

 We view each person’s purchases as a Markov chain with


the state at any given time being the type of cola the
person last purchased.
 Hence, each person’s cola purchases may be represented
by a two-state Markov chain, where
 State 1 = person has last purchased cola 1
 State 2 = person has last purchased cola 2
 If we define Xn to be the type of cola purchased by a
person on her nth future cola purchase, then X0, X1, …
may be described as the Markov chain with the following
transition matrix: X2 X1
X0
12 90%
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The Cola Example X2 X1
X0
90%

Cola1 Cola 2 
Cola 1  .90 .10 
P
Cola 2  .20 .80 
 

We can now answer questions 1 and 2.


1. We seek P(X2 = 1|X0 = 2) = P21(2) = element 21 of P2:

.90 .10 .90 .10 .83 .17


P 
2
    
.20 .80  .20 .80   .34 .66 

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Markov Processes
 A Markov source consists of:
 an alphabet A
 a set of states ∑,
 a set of transitions between states,
 a set of labels for the transitions and
 two sets of probabilities.

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Diagrammatic representation of a
Markov source

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Markov chain in Network queuing
 Markov Chain for M/M/1 system

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Birth-death chain

The Poisson process


– Arrival rate of λ packets per second
– Over a small interval δ,

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Markov model of a scalar passage of
music.

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Find mth-order Markov model?
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A Markov source equivalent to a
3-gram model.

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Ch 05: Little’s Theorem and
M/M/1
ELEXM 621 Random Process and Queuing
Theorem
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rashid A. Saeed
MSC Comp and Comm
Elex, FoE, SUST,
Agenda

Introduction
Queuing systems
Categories, Kendall notation
Markovian queuing systems
 Little’s result
M/M/1
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What is queuing theory?
Queuing theory: performance evaluation of
resource sharing systems, specifically, for
teletraffic systems

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Performance of queuing systems

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Block diagram of a queuing system

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Description of queuing systems

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Examples in details

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Examples in details

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Performance measures

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Poisson process

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Poisson process

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Exponential distribution and
memoryless property

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Poisson process and exponential
distribution

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Kendall’s notation A/S/m/c/p/O

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Notation Example
 M/M/3/20/1500/FCFS – single queue system with:
 Exponentially distributed arrivals
 Exponentially distributed service times
 Three servers
 Capacity 20 (queue size is 20 – 3 = 17)
 Population is 1500 total
 Service discipline is FCFS
 Often, assume infinite queue and infinite population and
FCFS, so just  M/M/3

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Markovian Queuing Systems

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System variables

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Little’s result

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Example

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M/M/1 queuing systems

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Thank You

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