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REPRINTED from 9/6/2010
  
(5)
[b]
(b)
[3] [c]
[a] [2]?
[b]
(3)
[d] [4] [a] [1]?
[1] [b]
[4]?
[c]
(a)
[2]

[3]?
[a]
[e]
[c] (4) [5]?
(c)
(1)
  

The market broke below short term support at 82.60 last week, which then gave us this
wave count. If this is a bullish ³impulse´ from 80.08 to 83.56, and it certainly resembles
one, then the market should not trade below 81.41. It¶s also possible to count a completed
(abc) corrective µflat pattern¶ here. Therefore, we are looking for ³bottoming´ action in the
(2) DXY this week.        |

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(5)

(b)
[3] [c]
[a] [2]
[b]
(1)?
(3)
[d] [4] [1]
[1] [b]
[4]
(a) (2)?

[2]

[a] [3]

[e]
[c] (4) [5]
(1) (c)
  

Not too much really happened last week. We got the ³bottoming´ action we were looking
for, but it¶s too early to tell whether or not the Wave -1- (or -a-) correction has ended. If we
did see a sub-minuette Wave (1) last week, the market should NOT break below 82.40
now. That would be the first level of support this week. In the slightly larger picture, the
(2) market should continue to hold 81.41. As we stated last week, a close below 81.41 would
force an immediate exit of any DXY long positions.

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ü  ü!"#$
%   REPRINTED from 7/5/2010

  !"
1000 for 78.6% of ³w´ = ³y´
 965 for 100% of ³w´ = ³y´
931 for 61.8% of ³w´ measured from the ³w´ conclusion.







 




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The move down from the proposed ³x´ wave has been difficult to decipher. Because of the way it developed in the
beginning, it remains a ³reach´ to label the move an ³impulse´ lower, so I¶m stuck with this sort of wave model.

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$%&'(()*(
+   
The previous slide was included to illustrated the usefulness of being somewhere ³near´ the correct wave
# count. As early as July 5th we felt that it was NOT the beginning of some mega collapse (i i 
 
ù) and that there would be better moments to take out shorts--a position in contrast to some well
known Ellioticians. At some point this wave count will FAIL us and we will need to jump on another horse.
Until then, this remains my best interpretation of the price action«..

-b- 


 -c-
-c- (5)
(3) (b)
-&'()*+,)
-1-?
-a- -a- -x-
(a)
(1)
-a- -b- (4)
-a-
(c)
-2-?
(2) -w-
-b-
  &'()*+,)
-b- -y-
-c-


? i  ?

 
«from the b-wave low, we should witness an ³impulsive´ move higher. Thusfar,
we¶ve only seen one wave higher. There ³should´ be two more impulsions
before completing a c-wave. The 1065 level is the ³line in the sand´ for this
wave count--that¶s near the 62% retrace of the recent advance and represents
classic chart support--it¶s a level that must hold for bulls. Otherwise we end up
with the wave model on the next page«.

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$%&'(()*(
+   
This would be the bearish alternative--that we¶ve been carving out a ³contracting´ triangle the last few months.
# There is nothing technically wrong with this interpretation and it cannot be discounted. My main problem with
 this interpretation is the lack of ³fibonacci´ relationships between the alternating legs. There are no such
relationships present as there should be in such a set up. I¶m open to the idea that I¶m ³missing something´«.

b
c
a -c-
-c- (5)

(3) (b) 


e
-a-
-a- -x-
(a)
(1)
a (4)

(c)
(2) -w-
-b-
  &'()*+,)
-b- -y-
c
d
 

.  /  0 


1      !

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 2 $3  |14
REPRINTED from 8/29/2010
One of the reasons I don¶t do a lot of analysis on the treasury notes/bonds is that I don¶t have 3?
a good µfeed¶ for interest rates, which is the best way to model such instruments. Charting
futures on notes/bonds have a lot of ³issues,´ but there are a few interesting things about this
current development. The most noteworthy item is the Daily RSI divergence triggered on the
new high last week, followed by the engulfing candlestick. This looks near term bearish--10
yr note holders should be braced for lower prices over the next few weeks. 1?

2?

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 2 $3  |14
Two weeks ago, we highlighted the short term bearish case for the 10 year notes. This was
not based on some ³well thought out´ wave count--it was merely the RSI divergence and 3?
bearish daily candlesticks that were giving us ³the story.´ Indeed, the 10 year notes have
taken a some minor body blows the last few weeks. However, there are now support points
directly below the market which must be considered. The ³look´ of the whole pattern
bears an ³unfinished´ appearance. Expect some bottoming in the 10 year notes in
the near term. ! 15

1?
%-6%%
4?

%%6 7
2?

 
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| $ ,V V | $ ,V V | $ ,V 

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any


kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT  $ !
representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author¶s "I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle
interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not I or A = Supercycle
trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions <I>or <A> = Cycle
opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information -I- or -A- = Primary
contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author (I) or (A) = Intermediate
believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to "1³ or "a" = Minor
the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for 1 or a = Minute
information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is -1- or -a- = Minuette
not for everyone. (1) or (a) = Sub-minuette
[1] or [a] = Micro
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro
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