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1 Simisola O. Oludare and 1Mark D. Grabiner

Clinical Biomechanics and Rehabilitation Lab
1 University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA

• Fluctuations in physiological signals have been shown to have long range (LR) correlation (1)

• As opposed to short range (SR) correlations, LR correlation indicates that the variability observed within these signals have a pattern that persists over time

• Long range correlations of heart rate and stride time has been linked to health, while loss of LR correlation has been linked to morbidity and mortality (1)

• Step width has been shown to have LR correlation using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) (2,3,4)

• Additionally, in older adults, the LR correlation of step width is reduced when vision is perturbed via disturbances in optical flow (2)

• However, DFA can falsely classify a short range (SR) correlated time series as a LR correlated process, for example an autoregressive process (7,8)

• The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation structure of step width using the autoregressive moving average/ autoregressive fractional integrated moving average
(ARMA/ARFIMA) modeling method.
• The main advantage of this method is the joint estimation of SR and LR correlation which allows us to determine whether a time series is SR or LR correlated (7,8)
• Additionally, ARMA/ARFIMA is known to produce inaccurate results if the time series is nonstationary so we eliminated time series which were nonstationary from our analysis

• The secondary purpose of the study was to determine if eliminating the nonstationary time series affected the group estimate of the LR correlation parameter by ARMA/ARFIMA and DFA

• If our results confirm those of prior studies, it could be significant because step width has been linked falls to the side (5) and LR correlation could serve as a specific estimate of fall risk

PARTICIPANTS • Ten out of the 37 time series were classified as nonstationary by both the ADF and KPSS
Thirty-seven healthy adults (35.1±8.4 years old, 71.1±28.3 kg, and 165.7±14.8 cm) tests and were eliminated from further analysis
participated in several IRB-approved protocols. The protocols consisted of each participant • The model that best characterized the step width time series was ARFIMA with higher
walking on a microprocessor-controlled motorized treadmill (ActiveStep, Lebannon, NH) for 10 order autoregressive and moving average parameters, p = 1 or 2 and q = 1 or 2,
minutes at a prescribed speed of 2.5 miles per hour respectively. The maximum weight for each step width time series was for an ARIFMA
model and the fractional parameters, d, were significantly different from 0 (p<0.001).
(Figure 2)
An eight camera motion capture system operating at 120 Hz tracked the motions of reflective
markers placed on the shoe at the heel and 2nd metatarsal phalangeal joints (MTPJ), the • The pink noise test time series were best characterized by ARFIMA models with lower
acromion processes, the anterior superior iliac spines and S2 order autoregressive and moving average parameters, p = 0 or 1 and q = 0 or 1,
respectively. The maximum weight for each step width time series was for an ARIFMA
GAIT ANALYSIS model and the fractional parameters, d, were significantly different from 0 (p<0.001)
The markers on the heel and 2nd MTPJ were used to construct a single rigid segment from • Neither the ARMA nor ARFIMA model best characterized the white noise time series.
which step width was calculated as the lateral distance between the segment centroids of The maximum weight for half of the time series was for an ARMA model and the fractional
subsequent foot placements at the instant of midstance parameters, d, were not significantly different from 0 (p>0.05)

Midstance was computed as the instant at which the lateral trunk center of mass velocity was
zero. The trunk center of mass was calculated as the centroid of the segment defined from the
midpoint of the line between the respective midpoints of the acromion processes and the two
Test for Nonstationarity
To test whether the data were stationary, we employed the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and
the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test. The former tests the null hypothesis that the
time series has a unit root (i.e. nonstationary) while the later tests the null that the time series does
not have a unit root (i.e. stationary). For both tests, a t-statistic (p<0.05) was used to test the null.
Both tests were performed in MATLAB v2017a (MathWorks Inc., Natick, MA, 2014) (9)
Figure 1. (Blue) Step width time series with average fractional parameter, d = 0.33 (Red)
Fit the time series to ARMA/ARFIMA models ARFIMA simulation with p = 1, q=1 and d = 0.33 (Black) ARMA simulation with p =1, q =1
(Purple) Random white noise
Each step width time-series was modeled with nine ARMA and nine ARFIMA models. Each ARMA
model was developed from two inputs, the order of the autoregressive (p) and the order of the
• The respective fractional parameters for ARMA/ARFIMA and DFA, d and α, were not
moving average (q), which varies from 0 to 2. The ARFIMA models were developed from three
significantly (p<0.05) or practically different when the nonstationary time series were
inputs, p and q, and the fractional parameter (d). The fractional parameter was quantified from the
time series and varies from positive to negative values. A positive d indicates the presence of LR removed
correlation and a d of zero indicates SR correlation. This analyses was performed in MATLAB v
2014b (MathWorks Inc., Natick, MA, 2014) using functions provided by Farrell et al (7,8) DISCUSSION
• The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate step width correlation during treadmill
Determine the most parsimonious model walking using the autoregressive moving average/ autoregressive fractional integrated
After the 18 models were developed, the most suitable for the time series was determined using the moving average (ARMA/ARFIMA) modeling method
Alkakie Information Criterion (AIC). The AIC is a goodness of fit statistic that determines the most • Our results showed that step width during treadmill walking possess LR correlation
parsimonious model. The AIC values for each model (for each time series) were transformed into a
• The secondary purpose of the study was to determine if eliminating the nonstationary
weight that indicated the probability for the i-th model to be the best model given the data and the set
time series affected the estimation of the LR correlation parameter by ARMA/ARFIMA
of candidate models. These weights were used to determine whether the time series was best
described by an ARMA or an ARFIMA model using the following criteria: 1) the best model (i.e. the and DFA
model with the highest weight) should account for at least 90% of the set of time series and if the • Our results showed that the group values of the fractional parameters, α and d, are
model is an ARFIMA model, d should be significantly different from 0; and 2) the sum of weights of indifferent to the inclusion of the nonstationary time series
the nine models should be at least 0.90 for the given time series. If the time series is best described • Our primary result is in line with previous studies and provides additional support for the
by an ARFIMA model it has LR correlation. To determine if the parameter d was different from 0 we presence of LR correlation in treadmill SW time series (2,3,4)
used one-sample t-test against zero (p=0.05) (7,8)
• The changes in SW correlation during various treadmill walking conditions is potentially
Validate results using simulated data meaningful because changes in SW has been shown to be an estimator for falls (5)
The results obtained from the step width data were validated using computer-generated data of white • However, it is unknown how or why LR correlation manifests itself in SW time series; it
and pink noise. Based on this analysis, the ARMA/ARFIMA modeling analyses should best fit white could simply be superimposed sensory motor noise given that step width requires the
noise signals with ARMA models and pink noise with ARFIMA models. The signals were created by cooperation of many sensorimotor control systems (2,11,12,13)
manipulating white Gaussian noise in the frequency domain. The inverse FFT was then used to • Or, it could relay information about specific neuro and sensory control processes such as
calculate the time domain version of the signal. To ensure unity standard deviation and zero mean vision, proprioception and attention.
value, the signal was divided by its root mean square. Signals of length 2000 (n=50) with 1/fβ were
• As such, there is further need to explore the sources of LR correlation in SW time series
simulated with β of 0 and 0.5 where a β of 0 results in a white noise signal and a β of 0.5 results in a
and it’s utility in determining fall risk
pink noise signal (10)
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) REFERENCES
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2. Franz et al. Hum Mov Sci. 2015; 40: 381 - 392 108-116
(residuals) of the detrended fluctuations in windows of size n. This process was performed iteratively 3. Kaipust et al. Motor Control. 2012; 16: 229 - 244 9. Stadinski. Front Phys. 2012; 3: 1- 13
with window sizes ranging from 4 to N/4 with window sizes increasing by N/50 where N is the length 4. Stout et al. Gait Posture. 2016; 44: 100-102 10. Zhivomirov. MATLAB Central. 2013
of the time series. The log of average residual (F (n)) of each window size was then calculated. 5. Ko et al. J Aging Health 2007; 19: 200-12 11. Francis. Gait Posture. 2015; 42: 380 - 385
The slope of log(F(n)) and log(n) is the DFA exponent, α. An α = 0.5 indicates white noise, α > 0.5 6. Hamacher et al. J.R.Soc.Interfac. 2011; 8:1682-98 12. Rankin et al. J Neurophysiol. 2014; 112: 374 - 383
7. Farrel et al. Psych Bull Rev. 2006; 13(4): 737-741 13. Wang and Srinivasan. Biol Lett. 2014; 10: 1 - 5
indicates self-similar pink noise.