Chapter 9

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Chapter 9

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Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Hypothesis Testing

Statistical hypothesis

A statistical hypothesis is a statement about the

parameters of one or more populations.

For example,

H 0 : 50 centimeters per second

H1 : 50 centimeters per second

H 0 is the null hypothesis and H1 is a two-

sided alternative hypothesis

Type I error

Rejecting the null hypothesis H 0 when it is true

is defined as a type I error

Type II error

Failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is

false is defined as a type II error

Probability of type I error

= P(type I error) = P(reject H 0 when H 0 is

true)

Probability of type II error

= P(type II error) = P(fail to reject H 0 when H 0

is false)

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Null hypothesis (H0) is Null hypothesis (H0) is

true false

Reject null hypothesis

False positive True positive

hypothesis True negative False negative

Properties

The size of the critical region and can be

reduced by appropriate selection of the critical

values

Type I and type II errors are related. Decrease

one will increase the other

An increase in sample size reduces

increases as the true value of the parameter

approaches the value hypothesized in the null

hypothesis

= 0.05

Widely used

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Power

1

The probability of correctly rejecting a false null

hypothesis

Sensitivity: the ability to detect differences

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Formulating one-sided hypothesis

H0 : = 1.5 MPa

H1 : > 1.5 Mpa (We want)

Or

H 0 : = 1.5 MPa

H1 : < 1.5 Mpa (We want)

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Formulating one-sided hypothesis

H0 : = 1.5 MPa

H1 : > 1.5 Mpa (We want)

Or

H 0 : = 1.5 MPa

H1 : < 1.5 Mpa (We want)

P-value

The P-value is the smallest level of significance

that would lead to rejection of the null

hypothesis H 0 with the given data

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

General procedure for hypothesis tests

Specify the test statistic to be used (such as Z 0 )

Specify the location of the critical region (two-

tailed, upper-tailed, or lower-tailed)

Specify the criteria for rejection (typically, the

value of , or the P-value at which rejection

should occur)

Practical significance

Be careful when interpreting the results from

hypothesis testing when the sample size is large,

because any small departure from the

hypothesized value 0 will probably be

detected, even when the difference is of little or

no practical significance

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Example 9-1 Propellant Burning Rate

Suppose that if the burning rate is less than 50

centimeters per second, we wish to show this

with a strong conclusion.

H 0 : 50 centimeters per second

H1 : 50 centimeters per second

Since the rejection of H 0 is always a strong

conclusion, this statement of the hypotheses will

produce outcome if H 0 is rejected.

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Exercise 9-27

A random sample of 500 registered voters in

Phoenix is asked if they favor the use of

oxygenated fuels year-round to reduce air

pollution. If more than 400 voters respond

positively, we will conclude that more than 60%

of the voters favor the use of these fuels.

(a) Find the probability of type I error if exactly

60% of the voters favor the use of these fuels.

(b) What is the type II error probability if

75% of the voters favor this action?

Hint: use the normal approximation to the

binomial.

Contents, figures, and exercises come from the textbook: Applied Statistics and Probability

for Engineers, 5th Edition, by Douglas C. Montgomery, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2011.

Tests on the Mean of a Normal

Distribution,Variance Known

Hypothesis tests on the mean

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

x 0

Test statistic: z0

/ n

P-value: P 2[1 (| z0 |)]

Reject H 0 if z0 z / 2 or z0 z / 2

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

P-value: P 1 ( z0 )

Reject H 0 if z0 z

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

P-value: P ( z0 )

Reject H 0 if z0 z

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

Suppose the true value of the mean under H1 is

0

Test statistic:

x 0 x ( 0 ) n

z0

/ n / n

Under H1 n

z0 N ,1

n n

z / 2 z / 2

Type II error and choice of sample size

Sample size formulas

If 0

n n

z / 2 z / 2

n

z / 2

Let z be the 100 upper percentile of the

standard normal distribution. Then ( z )

n

z z / 2

Note

n n

z / 2 z

/ 2

n n

1 z / 2

1 z / 2

n n

z / 2 z / 2

Sample size for a two-sided test on the mean,

variance known

( z / 2 z ) 2 2

n where 0

2

variance known

( z z ) 2 2

n where 0

2

Operating characteristic (OC) curves

Curves plotting against a parameter d for

various sample size n

| 0 |

d

See Appendix VII

For a given n and d , find .

For a given and d , find n

Large-sample test

If n 40 , the sample standard deviation s can

be substituted for in the test procedures

with little effect

Example 9-2 Propellant Burning Rate

2 , 0.05 , n 25 , x 51.3 ,

Specifications require that the mean burning rate

must be 50 centimeters per second. What

conclusions should be drawn?

Example 9-3 Propellant Burning Rate Type II Error

Suppose that the true burning rate is 49

centimeters per second. What is for the two-

sided test with 0.05 , 2 , and n 25 ?

Example 9-4 Propellant Burning Rate Type II Error

from OC Curve

Suppose the true mean burning rate is 51

centimeters per second.

| 0 | | | 1

d

2

Example 9-4 Propellant Burning Rate Sample Size

from OC Curve

Design the test so that if the true mean burning

rate differs from 50 centimeters per second by

as much an 1 centimeter per second, the test

will detect this with a high probability 0.90.

1 0.90

Exercise 9-47

Medical researchers have developed a new

artificial heart constructed primarily of titanium

and plastic. The heart will last and operate

almost indefinitely once it is implanted in the

patient’s body, but the battery pack needs to be

recharged about every four hours. A random

sample of 50 battery packs is selected and

subjected to a life test. The average life of these

batteries is 4.05 hours. Assume that battery life

is normally distributed with standard deviation

0.2 hour.

(a) Is there evidence to support the claim that

mean battery life exceeds 4 hours? Use 0.05 .

(b) What is the P-value for the test in part (a)?

Exercise 9-47

(c) Compute the power of the test if the true

mean battery life is 4.05 hours.

(d) What sample size would be required to

detect a true mean battery life of 4.5 hours if we

wanted the power of the test to be at least 0.9?

(e) Explain how the question in part (a) could be

answered by constructing a one-sided

confidence bound on the mean life.

Tests on the Mean of a Normal

Distribution,Variance Unknown

Hypothesis tests on the mean

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

x 0

Test statistic: T0

S/ n

P-value: P 2P(Tn1 | t0 |)

Reject H 0 if t0 t / 2,n 1 or t0 t / 2,n 1

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

P-value: P P(Tn 1 t0 )

Reject H 0 if t0 t , n 1

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

P-value: P P(Tn1 t0 )

Reject H 0 if t0 t ,n 1

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

Suppose the true value of the mean under H1 is

0

Test statistic: n ( x ( 0 )) n

x 0

t0

S/ n (n 1) S 2 1

Under H1 2 n 1

t 0 is of the noncentral t distribution with

degrees of freedom and noncentrality n /

parameter .

PDF of noncentral t distribution

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

P{t / 2,n1 T0 t / 2,n1 | 0}

P{t / 2,n1 T0 ' t / 2,n1}

where T0 ' denotes the noncentral t random

variable

Operating characteristic (OC) curves

Curves plotting against a parameter d for

various sample size n

| 0 |

d

See Appendix VII

Note that d depends on the unknown

parameter 2

Example 9-6 Golf Club Design

n 15

It is of interest to determine if there is evidence

(with 0.05) to support a claim that the mean

coefficient of restitution exceeds 0.82.

Data: 0.8411, …

x 0.83725 and s 0.02456

Example 9-7 Golf Club Design Sample Size

If the mean coefficient of restitution exceeds 0.82

by as much as 0.02, is the sample size n 15

adequately to ensure that H 0 : 0.82 will be

rejected with probability at least 0.8?

Exercise 9-59

A 1992 article in the Journal of the American

Medical Association (“A Critical Appraisal of 98.6

Degrees F, the Upper Limit of the Normal Body

Temperature, and Other Legacies of Carl Reinhold

August Wunderlich”) reported body temperature,

gender, and heart rate for a number of subjects. The

body temperatures for 25 female subjects follow:

97.8, …

(a) Test the hypothesis H 0 : 98.6 versus H1 : 98.6

using 0.05 . Find the P-value.

(b) Check the assumption that female body

temperature is normally distributed.

(c) Compute the power of the test if the true mean

female body temperature is as low as 98.0.

Exercise 9-59

(d) What sample size would be required to detect a

true mean female body temperature as low as 98.2

if we wanted the power of the test to be at least

0.9?

(e) Explain how the question in part (a) could be

answered by constructing a two-sided confidence

interval on the mean female body temperature.

Exercise 9-59

Normality plot

Tests on the Variance and Standard

Deviation of a Normal Distribution

Hypothesis tests on the variance

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : 2 02

H1 : 2 02

( n 1 ) S 2

Test statistic: X 02

02

P-value: P P( X n21 2 / 2,n1 ) P( X n21 12 / 2,n1 )

Reject H 0 if 02 2 / 2,n1 or 02 12 / 2,n1

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

H 0 : 2 02

H 1 : 2 02

P-value: P P( X n21 2,n1 )

Reject H 0 if 02 2,n1

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H 0 : 2 02

H 1 : 2 02

P-value: P P( X n21 12 ,n1 )

Reject H 0 if 02 12 ,n1

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : 2 02

H1 : 2 02

Suppose the true value of the variance under H1

is 2

(n 1) s 2

P{1 / 2,n 1

2

2

/ 2 , n 1 | H 1}

02

02 2 (n 1) s 2 02 2

P{ 2 1 / 2,n 1 2 / 2,n 1 | H1}

2

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

H 0 : 2 02

H 1 : 2 02

Suppose the true value of the variance under H1

is 2

(n 1) s 2

P{ 2

, n 1 | H 1}

02

(n 1) s 2 02 2

P{ 2 ,n 1 | H1}

2

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H 0 : 2 02

H 1 : 2 02

Suppose the true value of the variance under H1

is 2

(n 1) s 2

P{1 ,n 1

2

| H 1}

02

02 2 (n 1) s 2

P{ 2 1 ,n 1 | H 1}

2

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

Operating characteristic (OC) curves

Curves plotting against a parameter for

various sample size n

0

See Appendix VII

Example 9-8 Automated Filling

n 20 , s 2 0.0153 , 0.05.

Is there evidence in the sample data to suggest that

the manufacture has a problem with underfilled or

overfilled bottles? ( 2 0.01 )

Example 9-8 Automated Filling Sample Size

0 0.10 , 0.125

Find

Exercise 9-83

Recall the sugar content of the syrup in canned

peaches from Exercise 8-46. Suppose that the

variance is thought to be 2 18 (milligrams)2. Recall

that a random sample of n 10 cans yields a sample

standard deviation of s 4.8 milligrams.

(a) Test the hypothesis H 0 : 18 versus H1 : 2 18

2

(b) Suppose that the actual standard deviation is

twice as large as the hypothesized value. What is the

probability that this difference will be detected by

the test described in part (a)?

(c) Suppose that the true variance is 40 . How

2

difference with probability at least 0.90?

Tests on a Population Proportion

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : p p0

H1 : p p0

X np0

Test statistic: 0

z

np0 (1 p0 )

P-value: P 2[1 (| z0 |)]

Reject H 0 if z0 z / 2 or z0 z / 2

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

H 0 : p p0

H1 : p p0

P-value: P 1 ( z0 )

Reject H 0 if z0 z

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H 0 : p p0

H1 : p p0

P-value: P ( z0 )

Reject H 0 if z0 z

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : p p0

H1 : p p0

Suppose the true value of the proportion under H1

is p

P{ p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n p p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n | H1}

p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n p p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

p (1 p ) / n p (1 p ) / n

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

H 0 : p p0

H1 : p p0

Suppose the true value of the proportion under H1

is p

P{ p p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n | H1}

p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

p (1 p ) / n

Type II error and choice of sample size

Finding the probability of type II error

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H 0 : p p0

H1 : p p0

Suppose the true value of the proportion under H1

is p

P{ p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p | H1}

p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

1

p (1 p ) / n

Type II error and choice of sample size

Two-sided alternative

Let z be the 100 upper percentile of the

standard normal distribution. Then ( z )

p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n p p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

p (1 p ) / n p (1 p ) / n

p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

p(1 p) / n

p0 z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

z

p(1 p) / n

2

z / 2 p0 (1 p0 ) z p(1 p)

n

p p0

Type II error and choice of sample size

Upper-tailed alternative

Let z be the 100 upper percentile of the

standard normal distribution. Then ( z )

p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

p (1 p ) / n

p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

z

p(1 p) / n

2

z p0 (1 p0 ) z p(1 p)

n

p p0

Type II error and choice of sample size

Lower-tailed alternative

Let z be the 100 upper percentile of the

standard normal distribution. Then ( z )

p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

1

p (1 p ) / n

p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

p (1 p ) / n

p0 z p0 (1 p0 ) / n p

z

p(1 p) / n

2

z p0 (1 p0 ) z p(1 p)

n

p p0

Example 9-10 Automobile Engine Controller

p 0.05 , 0.05 , n 200

The semiconductor manufacturer takes a random

sample of 200 devices and finds that four of them

are defective. Can the manufacturer demonstrate

process capability for the customer? ( p 0.05 )

Example 9-11 Automobile Engine Controller Type II

Error

Suppose that its process fallout is really p 0.03

.

What is the -error for a test of process capability

that uses n 200 and 0.05 ?

Exercise 9-95

In a random sample of 85 automobile engine

crankshaft bearings, 10 have a surface finish

roughness that exceeds the specifications. Does this

data present strong evidence that the proportion of

crankshaft bearings exhibiting excess surface

roughness exceeds 0.10?

(a) State and test the appropriate hypotheses using

0.05 .

(b) If it is really the situation that p 0.15, how likely

is it that the test procedure in part (a) will not

reject the null hypotheses?

(c) If p 0.15 , how large would the sample size

have to be for us to have a probability of correctly

rejecting the null hypothesis of 0.9? ,

,

Testing for Goodness of Fit

Test the hypothesis that a particular distribution will

be satisfactory as a population model

Based on the chi-square distribution

n observations, p is the number of parameters of

the hypothesized distribution estimated by sample

statistics

Oi : the observed frequency in the i th class

interval

Ei : the expected frequency in the i th class

interval k

(O E ) 2

Test statistic: X 0

2 i i

i 1 Ei

P-value: P P( k p1 0 )

2 2

Reject the hypothesis if 0 2

2

,k p 1

Example 9-12 Printed Circuit Board Defects, Poisson

Distribution

Number of defects: 0, observed frequency: 32

Number of defects: 1, observed frequency: 15

Number of defects: 2, observed frequency: 9

Number of defects: 3, observed frequency: 4

Example 9-13 Power Supply Distribution, Continuous

Distribution

x 5.04 , s 0.08 , n 100

A manufacturer engineer is testing a power supply

used in a notebook computer and, using 0.05 ,

wishes to determine whether output voltage is

adequately described by a normal distribution.

Exercise 9-101

The number of cars passing eastbound through the

intersection of Mill and University Avenues has been

tabulated by a group of civil engineering students.

They have obtained the data in the adjacent table:

(a) Does the assumption of a Poisson distribution

seem appropriate as a probability model for this

process? Use 0.05.

(b) Calculate the P-value for this test.

Data: (40, 14), (41, 24), …

Contingency Table Tests

Test the hypothesis that two methods of

classification are statistically independent

Based on the chi-square distribution

n observations, r c contingency table

Oij : the observed frequency for level i of the first

classification and level j for the second

classification

c

1 r

uˆi Oij , vˆ j Oij ,

1

Eij nuˆi vˆ j

n j 1 n i 1

r c (O E ) 2

Test statistic: X 02

ij ij

i 1 j 1 Eij

P-value: P P( ( r 1)(c1) 0 )

2 2

Reject the hypothesis if 0 ,( r 1)( c 1)

2 2

Example 9-13 Health Insurance Plan Preference

A company has to choose among three health

insurance plans. Management wishes to know

whether the preference for plans is independent of

job classification and wants to use 0.05 .

n 500 , data: …

Exercise 9-107

A study is being made of the failure of an electronic

component. There are four types of failures possible

and two mounting positions for the device

A B C D

1 20 48 20 7

2 4 17 6 12

independent of the mounting position? Use 0.01.

Find the P-value for this test.

Nonparametric Procedures

Test hypotheses about the median ~ of a

continuous distribution

~ 0 )

r : the observed number of plus signs ( X i 0

~ ~

H 0 : 0

H : ~ ~

1 0

1

P-value: P 2 P( R r when p ) if r n / 2

2

1

or P 2 P ( R r when p ) if r n / 2

2

Reject H 0 if P

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

~ ~

H0 : 0

H : ~ ~

1 0

1

P-value: P P( R r when p )

2

Reject H 0 if P

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

~ ~

H 0 : 0

H : ~ ~

1 0

1

P-value: P P ( R r when p )

2

Reject H 0 if P

Appendix Table VIII ( r )

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H0 : ~ ~

0

H1 : ~ ~

0

Reject H 0 if min( r , r ) r

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

~ ~

H 0 : 0

~ ~

H1 : 0

Reject H 0 if r r

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H : ~ ~

0 0

~ ~

H :

1 0

Reject H 0 if

r r

Ties in the sign test

Values of X i exactly equal to ~ should be set

0

aside and the sign test applied to the remaining

data

Normal approximation for sign test statistic

R 0.5n

Z0

0.5 n

Reject H if | z | z

0 0 /2for H : ~ ~

1 0

or if z0 z for H1 : ~ ~0

or if z0 z for H1 : ~ ~0

Type II error for the sign test

Finding the probability of type II error

Not only a particular value of ~ , say, ~ , must

be used but also the form of the underlying

distribution will affect the calculations

Wilcoxon signed-rank test

Appendix Table IX ( )

w

Rank the absolute differences | X i 0 | in ascending

order, and then give the ranks the signs of their

corresponding differences

w : the sum of the positive ranks

w : the absolute value of the sum of negative ranks

Hypotheses, two-sided alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

Reject H 0 if min( w , w ) w

Wilcoxon signed-rank test

Appendix Table IX ( )

w

Hypotheses, upper-tailed alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

Reject H 0 if w w

Hypotheses, lower-tailed alternative

H 0 : 0

H1 : 0

Reject H 0 if w w

Ties in the Wilcoxon signed-rank test

If several observations have the same absolute

magnitude, they are assigned the average of the

ranks that they would receive if they differed

slightly from one another

Normal approximation for Wiocoxon signen-rank

test statistic

W n(n 1) / 4

Z0

n(n 1)( 2n 1) / 24

~ ~

Reject H 0 if | z0 | z / 2 for H1 : 0

or if z0 z for H1 : ~ ~0

or if z0 z for H1 : ~ ~0

Example 9-15 Propellant Shear Strength Sign Test

n 20

We would like to test the hypothesis that the

median shear strength is 13790 kN/m2, using 0.05

Example 9-16 Propellant Shear Strength Wilcoxon

Signed-Rank Test

n 20

We would like to test the hypothesis that the

median shear strength is 13790 kN/m2, using 0.05

Exercise 9-117

A primer paint can be used on aluminum panels. The

drying time of the primer is an important

consideration in the manufacturing process. Twenty

panels are selected and the drying times are as

follows: 1.6, …

Is there evidence that the mean drying time of the

primer exceeds 1.5 hr?

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