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Gilgit &
Gilgit/ Baltistan

Baltistan

Ladakh
Kashmir Poonch
Valley Kashmir
Poonch Valley Ladakh

Jammu
Jammu

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 Jammu & Kashmir - 101,000 sq kms
(Indian Held Kashmir)
 Azad Jammu & Kashmir, - 78,114 sq kms
including Gilgit/Baltistan
(Under Pakistan’s Administrative
Control)

 Aksai Chin (with China) - 37,555 sq kms


Total - 216,669 sq kms
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 Muslims (1941) - 76%
(93% in Valley of Kashmir)
 Hindus, Sikhs & Buddhist - 24%
(1941)
 Jammu & Kashmir (IHK) - 12.5 M
(Currently Estimated)
 Azad Kashmir - 3.6 M
(Currently Estimated)
 Gilgit & Baltistan - 1.5 M
(Currently Estimated)

 Total - 17.6 M
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 Valley of Kashmir, Gilgit ETHNICITY
Baltistan and Azad
Kashmir is predominantly
Muslim
 Ladakh is home to
Buddhists, whereas
Jammu and Poonch are
Hindu dominated areas
 Over a period of time, the
overall Muslims population
in IHK has now been
reduced from 76% to about
64%
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 GDP of Indian Held
Kashmir is assessed
about $ 10.39 Billion

AK

 GDP of Azad Kashmir IHK

is estimated to be
around $ 3.5 Billion

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The Jammu and Kashmir

(J&K) is significantly

important due to its close

proximity with China and

Central Asian States and

central location between J&K

India and Pakistan

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Hindu Kush
The area controls Range
Karakoram
Range

most of the natural


Himalayan
Range
water supplies to

India and Pakistan

Arabian
Sea
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 Large scale uprising of 1989
and nuclearization of South
Asia (India and Pakistan) in
1998 has added new
dimension to the Kashmir
Dispute
 The failure of diplomacy to
resolve the Kashmir dispute is
regrettable, given the amount
of international as well as
regional attention paid to it
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 Kashmir had been ruled by the Muslims from 14th
Century till early 19th Century when it was captured by
Maharaja Ranjit Sing in 1819, and remained part of the
Sikh Empire until 1846
 ‘Treaty of Amritsar’ – Dogra Rule in Kashmir
 British defeated the Sikhs in 1846 and sold Kashmir
to Raja Gulab Singh of Jammu for Rs. 7.5 Million
under the ‘Treaty of Amritsar’
 Gulab Singh and his successors ruled Kashmir in a
tyrannical and repressive way till 1947
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Kashmir comprised Six distinct
areas:-
 Jammu. Heartland of Dogras
 Ladakh. A Buddhist Kingdom,
conquered by Dogras in 1834
 Baltistan. Muslim majority
area, conquered in 1840
Valley of Kashmir.
Predominantly Muslim area,
purchased from British in 1846
Gilgit Agency. Predominantly
Muslim area, leased from
Kashmir by British in 1935
Poonch. Merged with Jammu
and Kashmir in 1936
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 British Government took direct control of India from

East India Company after ‘Great Rebellion’ (War of

Independence) of 1857

 Kashmir was allowed to retain its status of ‘Princely

State’. More than 600 Pricincely States in 1947

 Sub-Continent was partitioned (14/15 August 1947) on

the agreed principle of contiguous Muslim majority and

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 The Cabinet Mission, in its

statement of May 16, 1946,

clarified that ‘Paramountcy

could neither be retained by

the British Crown nor

transferred to the new

Government’

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 Lord Mountbatten address to
Chamber of Princes on July 25,
1947 stated: ‘The rulers were
technically at liberty to link with
either of the dominion (India or
Pakistan), on the basis of its
geographical situation and
communal interests and so forth
will be the factors to be
considered’
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 By August 15, 1947, the majority
of the Princely States, owing to
their geographical contiguity and
Hindu population, joined India
while only ten joined Pakistan
 Disputes over independence Junagadh

arose with India in the case of


three Princely States, namely
Junagadh, Hyderabad and Jammu
& Kashmir

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 On 12 August 1947, Hari Sing,

the Maharaja of Kashmir,

asked for a ‘Standstill

Agreement’ with both the

Dominions; India and

Pakistan

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 The agreement would guarantee that till new agreements

were made, all existing agreements would continue and

any dispute in this regard would be settled by arbitration

 Pakistan accepted the ‘Agreement’ on 15 August 1947

but India asked for negotiations

 The non-acceptance of the ‘Standstill Agreement’ by

India aroused suspicion in the minds of Pakistan


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 On 26 October 1947, Maharaja gave way to the Indian

pressure and agreed to join India after signing the

‘Instrument of Accession’

 The legal validity of this document is contested by

Pakistan

 Rigged elections of IHK Constitutional Assembly were

held in 1951, which certified State’s accession to India


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 UNSC Resolution No 91 (1951)

denied the authority of the

Constitutional Assembly to

decide future of the State as,

 “Final disposition is to be made

in accordance with will of the

people of Kashmir”
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 Local population revolted against Maharaja and skirmishes

turned into full fledged freedom struggle

 By 24 October 1947, freedom fighters had reached the

outskirts of Srinagar

 On morning 27 October 1947, Indian troops landed on

Srinagar Airport

 On 24 October 1947, Azad Kashmir Government was

established in liberated areas of Kashmir


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 On 30th October 1947, Indian Prime

Minister Pundit Jawaharlal Nehru

repeated his earlier promise for

withdrawal of Indian Troops from

Kashmir and holding the plebiscite as

per the wishes of Kashmiri people, to

be held under international auspices

like the United Nations


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 India took the Kashmir
Dispute to the United
Nations in January 1948,
charging Pakistan with
‘aiding and abetting’
tribal invasion in Jammu
and Kashmir
 Pakistan denied and
accused India of illegally
annexing Kashmir
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UNSC Resolution 38 of 17 January 1948

 Asked the two governments: -

 To refrain from aggravating the situation

and exercise restraint

 Ease tension and to do everything within

their power to improve the situation


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UNSC Resolution 39 of 20 January 1948

 Created the UN Commission for India and

Pakistan (UNCIP) to investigate the Dispute and

mediate between the two countries

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UNSC Resolution 47 of 21 April 1948
 Withdrawal of all tribesmen and Pakistanis
 Reduction of force levels by India on restoration
of normalcy
 Appointment of a Plebiscite Administration by
India
 Appointment of a Plebiscite Administrator by
the UN Secretary General
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UNCIP Resolution of 13 August 1948

 A ceasefire, to be supervised by UN observers

 Pakistan to withdraw the tribals and to put its

troops under the command of local civilian

authorities

 India to withdraw bulk of its troops

 Holding of the plebiscite


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UNCIP Resolution of 5 January 1949

 Deals with both Governments of India and

Pakistan accepted the cease-fire with effect

from 1st January 1949

 The accession of the State would be decided

through a free and impartial plebiscite


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Appointment of UN Plebiscite
Administrator
 In March 1949, Admiral Chester
Nimitz of the US Navy was appointed
by the UN as Plebiscite Administrator
 His task was to ensure
implementation of UNCIP Resolution
of 13 August 1948 through arbitration
 The mission failed
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 In May 1950, UN appointed Sir Owen
Dixon, an Austrian jurist, as UN
representative to mediate between India
and Pakistan

 He proposed limited / regional


plebiscite beside undertaking
phased de-militarization
 Frustrated for non-acceptance of his
proposals, he resigned in September
1950.
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Appointment of UN Plebiscite Administrator
 Thereafter, Dr. Frank Graham was
appointed as the UN Representative by
a UN Resolution (30 March 1951) to
bring about de-militarization
 He suggested reduction of Pakistani
troops to 6000 and Indian troops to
21000
 The proposal fell through due to
disagreement on reduction of troops
level
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Numerous Other Resolutions of UNSC

 A number of other UN resolutions followed

suite in 1950s and 1960s

 The Dispute also remained under discussion

at various forums / UN General Assembly


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The United Nations Military
Obsevers Group in India
and Pakistan
 Unarmed Military Observers
deployed, in Jan 1949, in
support of UNCIP
 On termination of UNCIP,
Security Council, under UN
Resolution 91(1951), decided to
continue United Nations Military
Observer Group in India and
Pakistan (UNMOGIP) to observe
and report violations of
ceasefire

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India Pakistan / Kashmiris

Tribesmen supported by Due to majority of Muslim

Pakistan Military entered population’s desire and

Kashmir while Maharaja was geographic contiguity,

about to sign ‘Instrument of Maharaja of Kashmir was

Accession’ with India bound to accede to Pakistan

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India Pakistan / Kashmiris
Maharaja Signed Maharaja had established a
‘Instrument of Accession’ ‘Standstill Agreement’ with
with India on 26 August India and Pakistan on 12
1947 at his own will August 1947
Signing of ‘Instrument of
Accession’ if at all took
place, was under pressure/
duress
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India Pakistan / Kashmiris
India went to UN in 1948 for Pakistan seeks the dispute
resolution of Kashmir Dispute. resolution under provisions
India accepted UN mediation of UNSC Resolutions
and holding of plebiscite
under UN auspices but claims
that ground realities have
changed. Therefore at present,
she does not want any UN
mediation on this issue
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 41
India Pakistan / Kashmiris
Accuses Pakistan and some Maintains that uprising in
other non-state actors for Kashmir is internal / indigenous
actively supporting the political struggle.
insurgency in Jammu and Acknowledges providing
Kashmir. Maintains a large diplomatic, political and moral
number of Security Forces in support to the just cause self-
the State to counter the determination of Kashmiri
internal threat people
Kashmir is an integral part of Jammu and Kashmir is a
India with a special status disputed territory requiring its
under Article 370 of Indian resolution through UN/
Constitution international community’s
mediation / arbitration
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India Pakistan / Kashmiris

Any dispute between India Any meaningful 3rd party

and Pakistan, including mediation, which facilitates the

Kashmir, is a bilateral just and fair solution of the

issue and no 3rd party Dispute that is acceptable to

mediation is acceptable majority of Kashmiris is

welcome and appreciated


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 Since their independence in
1947, India and Pakistan
have fought major wars in
1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999.
Perpetual fighting still goes
on at highest battle field of
the world; Siachin Glacier
 These wars and military
operations are essentially
linked with Kashmir Dispute
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Human Cost

 About 97,000 lives have been lost in Kashmir since the

onset of 1989 uprising

 Estimated One Million people displaced

 Deployment of large security forces

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Human Cost
 Human rights abuses by
Indian Security Forces, such
as extra-judicial executions,
disappearances, rape and
torture
 Armed Forces Special
Powers Act (AFSPA)
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Human Cost
 20,000 people have been
detained by draconian laws
in Indian Administered
Kashmir
 During 2011, the issue of
‘Unmarked Graves’ in IHK
was also unearthed by
Human Rights

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January 1989 to January 2013
Total Killings Approx 100,000

Custodial Killings Over 7,000

Civilians Arrested 125,000

Structures Arsoned / Destroyed 115,000

Women Widowed 23,000

Children Orphaned 120,000

Women gang-raped / Molested 11,000


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Economic Cost

Affected the Tourism, Extensive


Discouraged
important horticulture damage to
private
sources of and the
investment
livelihood handicrafts infrastructure

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Diplomatic Cost

Pakistan Kashmir
Thrice to India
Bilateral considers resolution
war and insists on
relations Kashmir essential for
twice to promotion progress on
virtually of trade & Dispute
the brink other
hostage commerce the core
of war disputes
issue

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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

 As per Alastair Lamb, “Kashmir problem is the result of

British failure to find satisfactory method for

integration of Princely States in Pakistan and India”

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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 1 – Plebiscite Under


UN Auspices
 The Kashmiris on both
sides of Line of Control be
given an opportunity to
exercise their right of self-
determination
 It is the most desired
option by Kashmiris,
supported by Pakistan. The
same is enshrined in the
UN resolutions of 1948 and
1949
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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 2 – Plebiscite on Regional


Basis/ Sir Owen Dixon’s Plan
 Administrative responsibilities
be assigned to the local
Gilgit
authorities/ District Magistrates, Baltistan

supervised by the UN Officers.


India rejected this proposal
 Establishing a single
government for the whole
Kashmir during the period of
plebiscite, under a neutral
administration by trusted
persons outside politics.
Rejected by both India and
Pakistan
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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 2 – Plebiscite on Regional


Basis/ Sir Owen Dixon’s Plan
 Region by region plebiscite,
Gilgit
allocating each area to either Baltistan

Pakistan or India, according to


the vote. Pakistan objected to
this proposal
 Partition of Kashmir and a
plebiscite for the Valley.
Required complete de-
militarization. Rejected by both
India and Pakistan
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 56
RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 3 - The Division of

Kashmir - Chenab Formula

 It envisages division of
LOC
Kashmir on communal /

ethnic lines along

Muslim / non-Muslim

majority areas.

Commonly called

Chenab Formula. "Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 57


RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 4 – Kashmir under UN


Trusteeship/ Mandate
 Re-unification of the entire
State and giving it under the UN
supervision for a certain period
of time
 After the mutually agreed
period, a referendum under UN
supervision to be held to
determine whether Kashmiris
want independence, or would
like to join Pakistan or India
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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 5 - Combination of
Partition and Limited Plebiscite To Pakistan
under UN Auspices
 Azad Kashmir and Gilgit To India

Baltistan merged into Pakistan


and non–Muslim Jammu and
LOC
Ladakh merged with India
 Kashmir Valley and other
adjoining Muslim majority
districts be placed under the
Under UN
UN Trusteeship/ mandate for a Control
period of 5 years
 Plebiscite should then be held
for Kashmir joining Pakistan or
India
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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 6 – Conversion of LOC


as International Border
(Legitimization of De-facto
Arrangement - The Status Quo)
 Recognising the existing
division as the permanent
solution of the Dispute,
recognizing Line of Control
as the international border
 Easiest to implement
 Kashmiris are less likely to
accept this option
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 60
RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 7 - Independent Kashmir

 Kashmir as an independent

sovereign state between India

Pakistan, as a result of a

plebiscite, a referendum or as

an outcome of a negotiated

settlement

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RESOLUTION OPTIONS

Option 8 - Musharraf Formula


 Making the border gradually irrelevant i.e. Kashmiri
people allowed moving freely across the Line of
Control on both sides
 Self governance and autonomy on both side but not
independence
 Phased demilitarization of the region
 Joint administration and control with representation
from India, Pakistan and local Kashmiris
 Final Status ??? "Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 62
IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS

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IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS

 The Kashmir Dispute is a duo-conflict; an internal


clash between India and residents of IHK and an
external conflict between India and Pakistan
 Involves a large number of legal issues pertaining to
the question of accession, self determination and
interpretation of the UN Resolutions
 It is not an issue of territorial claim but an issue of
perpetual human rights violation and denial of a
fundamental right of self-determination
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IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS

 It is imperative for both nations to accept international

mediation to resolve this long outstanding Dispute,

which has paralyzed their bilateral relations

 Peaceful resolution of Kashmir will be beneficial to all

countries in the region, especially the SAARC member

states and Central Asian States


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WAY FORWARD

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WAY FORWARD

Participation of Kashmiris in Dispute Resolution


 Kashmir has always been considered as a territorial
dispute between India and Pakistan
 Unless the solution is whole heartedly accepted by
indigenous people of Kashmir, it will never bring a
sustainable peace to the region
 The result of self-determination can be ascertained
through variety of ways to include; plebiscite,
referendum and opinion of public representatives etc
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WAY FORWARD

Enhanced People to People Contact

 Kashmiris on either side of the divide must be allowed

to move across the Line of Control freely without any

intimidation, fear or discrimination

 An exchange program of students at large scale

should be sponsored by local/ State Governments

from both sides


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WAY FORWARD

Promotion of Intra-Kashmir Commerce and Trade

 In order to uplift of economic conditions of the general

masses, cargo transport links and other economic

activities across the Line of Control must be

facilitated/ encouraged, both by India and Pakistan

"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 69


WAY FORWARD

Voluntary Demilitarization by India and Pakistan

 As a Confidence Building Measure (CBM), both

countries should reduce their military/security forces

to a mutually agreed bare minimum level

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CONCLUSION

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CONCLUSION

 The Kashmir dispute basically involves three parties; India,


Pakistan and the Kashmiris
 The right of self-determination by Kashmiri people has
been recognized in UN Resolutions
 Pakistan and India at their own cannot decide their future
 Imposing a solution by India or Pakistan or any third party
will not be successful
 The status quo can also not be maintained for an indefinite
period
 International community has to find a solution within the
parameters of self-determination
 The Kashmiris must be included for discussing various
options
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CONCERNS OF MAJOR PLAYERS

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CONCERNS OF MAJOR PLAYERS

USA
 Maintains somewhat neutrality and encourages
Confidence Building Measures
 Supports bilateral effort to resolve Kashmir and other
disputes
 Does not show keenness for implementation of UN
Resolutions, which is viewed as a diplomat support to
India
 Encourages some Kashmiri groups working for
Independent Kashmir
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 74
CONCERNS OF MAJOR PLAYERS

USA
 Shows interest in mediation to resolve Kashmir
Dispute if such efforts are requested by India and
Pakistan
 Is concerned over nuclearization of South Asia and
perpetually increasing nuclear capability of both
countries
 Has formalized ‘Strategic Relations/ Partnership’ with
India, including provision of civilian nuclear facility
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 75
CONCERNS OF MAJOR PLAYERS

China
 Encourages and supports bilateral resolution of all
conflicts, including Kashmir Dispute
 Supports Pakistani stand on Kashmir at all
international / regional forums
 Supports holding of plebiscite under UN auspices and
implementation of other UNSC Resolutions
 Supports demilitarization of Kashmir and de-
nuclearization of South Asia without any
discrimination
 Denounces all forms of terrorist activities, including
State Terrorism in Kashmir
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 76
CONCERNS OF MAJOR PLAYERS

Russia
 Supports bilateral resolution of all conflicts and
disputes
 Traditionally, has supported India on international
forums and still maintains strategic partnership with
India
 Indicates willingness to facilitate negotiated
settlement of the Dispute
 Would like to support any diplomatic process which
reduces US influence in the region and facilitates
continuation of Russian influence in Central Asian
States
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 77
CONCERNS OF MAJOR PLAYERS

European Union (EU)


 European Parliament has shown keenness in peaceful
resolution of the Kashmir Dispute according to the
aspirations of Kashmiri people
 However, EU is averse to any conflict in South Asia
due to fear of nuclear holocaust and disruption of its
economic interests in the region
 EU also seems to be poised to support the Kashmir
resolution in accordance with the relevant UN
Resolutions
"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute" 78
The OIC/Muslim Countries

• The OIC considers Kashmir as an important issue


• Condemns Indian atrocities almost in every Summit and CFM’s
meetings. However, many member states do so in a guarded manner
• OIC has form a ‘Contact Group’ on Jammu and Kashmir and has
demanded from Indian Govt. to allow its visit to occupied territories.

• The ‘Contact Group’ has been asked to prep periodic reports.

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"Resolution of Kashmir Dispute"