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estimation statistique

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Prepared by : BAYOUSSEF Imane

Powerpoint Templates EL GOURDIPage

Houda

1

Plan

Introduction

relationship between variables

Conclusion

Page 2

Introduction

Page 3

1- General logic of statistical tests

Inference & place in research in management. Very often, the

statistics researcher is led to draw conclusions or to proceed to

generalizations from its observations or its results.

The research but also of personal impressions or of a simple

hypotheses conjecture may constitute the source of the research

hypotheses of the researcher. To skip a research

hypothesis in its test through the statistics, it must first

translate it into statistical hypothesis.

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Page 4

1- General logic of statistical tests

Statistical

hypotheses

concerning the characteristics of a population. More

exactly, it is an assertion on the distribution of one or

several random variable.

the dual form of a first hypothesis H0 called "null

hypothesis" and a second hypothesis H1 called

"alternative hypothesis or otherwise ".

Page 5

Statistical

test

is done by means of a "statistical test", carried out on

data from a representative sample of the population

studied.

is a statistical test which is a statistical test for

assumes a parametric which it is not necessary

form in particular to specify the parametric

concerning distributions form of the distribution of

populations.

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the populations.

Page 6

Risk of error

decision, in the occurrence reject or not the null

hypothesis H0. But because the decision is based on

partial information outcome of observations on A sample

of the population, it has a risk of error

The observations of the The observations of the

sample can lead to reject the sample can lead not to

null hypothesis H0 whereas reject the null hypothesis

the population actually fulfils H0 whereas the population

the conditions of this

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meets the conditions of the

hypothesis alternative hypothesis H1

Page 7

Steps in the development of a statistical

test of significance

1- Formulate the assumptions (the null hypothesis H0 and the alternative hypothesis

H1).

2- Choose the threshold of meaning has of the test, that is to say the risk to reject the

null hypothesis H0 then that it would be true

4- For the parametric tests, determine the law of probability corresponding to the

distribution of sampling

5- Determine a statistic X that are known to the law of probability when the null

hypothesis H0 is true. Page 8

6- Calculate from the threshold of significance has the critical values and deduct the

region of rejection and the region of the acceptance of the null hypothesis H0

8- Calculate the statistics and determine if it is located in the area of rejection or non-

rejection of the null hypothesis H0.

9- Take the decision not to reject or to reject the null hypothesis H0 on the basis of the

test performed on the sample studied.

Page 9

4-Statistical estimation of causal relationship

between variables

used

include in a study. In general, it sets the desired power, the risk of a

first species (a) and the parameters associated with the groups to

obtain the number of observations necessary to the study.

The power of a study (or a test) depends on the size of the effect

detectable, of the distribution of parameters (in particular, the gap-

type) and the size of the sample.

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Page 10

the power can be calculated after the test is performed but this is not

recommended, except to determine the appropriate sample size for a

follow-up study.

sample size is the following

the effect detectable

an estimate of the gape-type

Page 11

the specification of the hypothesis test, it is to choose the parameter

which is most important in function of the research question. It is

recommended to always perform a test bilateral, unless you have a

very good reason to carry out a unilateral test

a lower terminal and/or a top terminal. In this way, we can calculate

several sizes of appropriate sample corresponding to the different

proposals to effect.

Page 12

Exogénéité des variables

explicatives

squares - OLS can produce biased results in the case of non exogeneity

of explanatory variables and, therefore, compromise absolutely the merits

of the theoretical and practical implications derived of the results

of a independence between the explanatory

variables and the error term

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Page 13

spécification des modèles

in the statistical estimation of causal relationships

between variables can be easily highlighted in

relationship with the previous developments relating to

the importance of the power of statistical tests mobilized

in the statistical estimation and the exogeneity of

explanatory variables

number of degrees of freedom, the specification of the models

which is itself directly determined directly determines the existence

by the number of latent variables or absence of an endogeneity

and problem.

Pourindicators for

plus de modèles measuring

: Modèles Powerpoint PPT gratuits

these latent variables

Page 14

Conclusion

Page 15

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