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Rapid growth of human population illustrates the great capacity for growth despite the limiting conditions that beset the environment Human species utilized their intelligence to make technological advancements This capability and their rapid increase made them as an environmental problem
Human Population Growth and the Environment
Human Population - An Explosive Growth Human Needs - Limited Resources Our Natural Environment Under Attack Roles of Technology and Engineering An Uncertain Future
Humans are Recent Arrivals
Earth - 5 Billion Years Multi-cell Biota - 600 Million Years Human Beings ~ 2 Million Years Human Population Growth into Billions - Last 200 years
66 Billion Billion
A Million Years Of Human Growth (1)
A Closer Look
The Industrial Revolution
200 Million by 1 A.D.
1 Billion in 1800 A.D.
Change in Population Characteristics
How has the Worlds Population Increased?
Three Revolutions that increased Worlds Population
Agricultural Revolution [8000 BC] Industrial Revolution [1750 AD] Medical Revolution 
Three Technological Eras
Differential Population Growth Rates ² Why?
The Demographic Transition Countries in Different Stages of Transition
Explaining the Model!
Stage 1 Birth rate and death rate are high - low natural increase - low total population Stage 2 Birth rate is high - death rate is falling high natural increase (population growth) Stage 3 Falling birth rate - low death rate - high natural increase (population growth) Stage 4 Birth rate and death rate is low - low natural increase - high total population
Countries in Different Stages of Transition
India ± Stage 2 Nigeria Stage ± 2 Australia ± 4 China - Stage 2 to 3
PROBLEMS OF OVERPOPULATION
1. Shortage of fuel wood: Can be a matter of life & death. a. used to cook food (some can¶t be eaten raw) b. used to boil water (waterborne diseases common) 25 million people/yr, most of them children die of diseases contracted from dirty water. (Lima Peru 1991 1st cholera epidemic in Western Hemisphere in more than 75 years.) 2. The Urban Crisis. By 2020 almost 1/4 of the world¶s city dwellers will be homeless.
3. Social Unrest: Conflicts between groups for scare resources. Water rights, food riots, illegal immigration. 4. Environmental Refugees: Millions of people in search of food. Host countries overwhelmed: provide education, health care & jobs.
5. Soil infertility as a result of intensive farming = decreasing the carrying capacity of the land which may take hundreds of years to recover if it can. The flood of environmental refugees is a good argument for helping other countries solve their environmental problems & reduce their population growth. Overall = Resource depletion, environmental degradation & threats to the ecological support systems that we all depend on.
What·s Behind Population Growth
Fertility Infant Mortality Longevity
Growth of Cities and Infrastructure
Water Energy Transportation
Animal Domestication and Agriculture
Provided for a few to feed many
Increased Productivity Nutrition Sanitation Medicine
Population predictions are very sensitive to future fertility assumptions At 1990 fertility rates (constant by region) population would grow to 110 billion in 2100, over 700 billion in 2150 (3) Has been dropping since 1800 in developed nations - now at Zero Growth (4) Is on its way down in much of the developing world (4)
Most predictions: 9-12B by 2050 10-15B by 2100 UN (Low) requires global fertility at less than zero growth in 15 years Large uncertainties
Population May Overshoot
When Population Outpaces Resources
Scenario - current population trend, doubled resources (5)
High consumption Getting worse Rate increase faster than population growth
Resource Limits - Land
Deforesting to acquire more arable land Would run out in next century at current yields Probably need to double yields
Resource Limits - Water
In 1950 people used half of accessible water Are now dependent on dams Pollution loses 33% of potential water Getting close to limits
Energy growth very high last fifty years Mostly hydrocarbon fuels Nonrenewable resource consumption and climate change issues
Fossil Fuel Reserves
Lots of coal - but heavy CO2 contributor Look for alternative forms of energy to emerge
Cars replaced horses as transportation needs grew
Energy forms have changed to meet changing needs New economic and environmental needs are emerging
Economics and Resources
1.1 billion people suffer from malnutrition
Impact = P*A*T
Population Affluence Technology % of global income
US - 5% of global population but 20-25% of environmental impact
Planet Earth is Impacted
United States - 5 hectares/person Developing nations - 0.5 hectare/person
For everyone to live at today¶s US footprint would require 3 planet Earths Increasing affluence and population is damaging Earth¶s essential ecology
Our ¶Commons· are in Danger
Atmospheric pollution and climate change Water pollution, including ground aquifers Deforestation and loss of oxygenation The oceans, coral reefs and their bounty National parks, wildernesses and wetlands Nonrenewable natural resource depletion
Fossil fuels, mineral ores, topsoil«..
Biodiversity is in Danger
Humanity has spawned a species extinction to rival the 5 great extinctions of 65 - 440 million years ago Recovery times from the great extinctions took 10¶s of millions of years Biodiversity is essential to life on Earth and holds untold treasures for the future An ecological ethic is emerging
Global Warming - A Good Example
Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, and creates greenhouse effect.(14) 3-5°C rise predicted by computer models for this century would have major environmental impact. (15) Observed change of 0.25-0.4°surface and 0.0-0.2°C troposphere rise in last 20 years doesn¶t agree with models and may or may 0.6°C rise in last 100 years not be due to CO2.(16) Humans - 6 billion tons/year of CO2 (up 500% from 1950, and increasing) (17)
Other sources 200B tons/year Total atmosphere load - 775B tons Total earth load with oceans - 42,000B tons
Predicting the Future - Be Careful
Don¶t assume it can¶t be done Leave room for the unknown Consider alternatives carefully Pursue all potential solutions
Detailed explicit information and understanding of what is occurring
Sensors, data processing, computers, models, predictions, communication, information«...
Alternate technologies that mitigate and eliminate deleterious effects
Energy, water, transportation, communication«
Engineers are vital
Developing and applying
the means by which to measure, analyze and predict future conditions the technologies by which to mitigate and eliminate undesired effects
Describing, explaining and communicating
To policy makers To the non-technical public
Creating the framework for a sustainable environment
Population: 83.7 million (2006) 91,077,287 Age structure: 0-14 years: 34.5% (male 16,043,257/female 15,415,334) 15-64 years: 61.3% (male 27,849,584/female 28,008,293) 65 years and over: 4.1% (male 1,631,866/female 2,128,953) Population growth rate: 2.36% annually (highest in Asia) the country¶s population is projected to reach 118.4M in 2025 and 147.3M in 2050. Birth rate: 24.48 births/1,000 population Death rate: 5.36 deaths/1,000 population
Net migration rate: -1.48 migrant(s)/1,000 population Sex ratio: at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female under 15 years: 1.041 male(s)/female 15-64 years: 0.994 male(s)/female 65 years and over: 0.767 male(s)/female total population: 0.999 male(s)/female Population below poverty line: 40%
Average age at which a person is calculated to live Different countries have different life expectancy age, depending on the economic development and technological advancement Advancement in agriculture and medicine increased the life expectancy of humans
Middle ages (18th century): 35-40 Current life expectancy: higher in developed countries and women More developed countries: 73 Less developed countries: 60 Japan: 78; US: 75; Africa: 52 (lowest) Philippines: 65 (women); 61 (men)
Major increases are occurring in human population and affluence. Major stresses result in our society, natural environment, and ecology. Technology and engineering are central to the creation and the mitigation of problems. Predicting the future is difficult (17). The next twenty five to fifty years will be decisive.
1. Cohen, Joel, How Many People Can The Earth Support?, W. W. Norton & Co., New York, 1995, p79-82. 2. Kates, Robert, Population, technology, and the human environment: A thread through time, Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, J Ausubel and H.D.Langford, Eds., National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, page 38 (concept credited to Deevey, E., The human population, Scientific American, 203, no.9 (September) 1960, pages 194-204.) 3. Cohen, op. cit., p139. 4. Kates, op cit., p50-51. 5. Meadows, Donella H.. et al, Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green Publishing Co., White River Junction, Vermont, 1992, p128-140. 6. Meadows, op. cit., p7.
7. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p51. 8. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p55. 9. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p67-8. 10. Ausubel, J, and H.D.Langford, Eds., Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, p21 and 86 11. Cohen, op. cit., p52. 12. Wilson, Edward O., Foreword to 1999 edition, The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992. 13. Wilson, E.O.,The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992. 14..Meadows, op. cit, p92-96. 15. National Research Council, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change, National Academy Press, Washington D.C., 2000 16. Dunn, Seth, Decarbonizing the energy economy in Brown, Lester et al, State of the World,W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 2001, page 85 17. Cerf, Christopher, and Victor Navansky, The Experts Speak, Pantheon Books, New York, 1984, revised 2000.
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