BIMO BUDI SANTOSO

What is Global Change?

 Global changes are environmental changes
that threaten the capacity of the whole earth
system to sustain life
What is Climate Change?
 UNFCCC: “Climate change: a change of climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural
climate variability observed over comparable time
periods”
 IPCC: “any change in climate over time, whether
due to natural variability or as a result of human
activity”.
OUTLINE
 KEY CONCEPTS
 WHY DOES CLIMATE CHANGE OCCUR?
 EVIDENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
 IMPACTS
 WHAT IS BEING DONE
CLIMATE VS WEATHER
THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
ANNUAL AND GLOBAL MEAN ENERGY BALANCE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
CLIMATE VS WEATHER
 difference is in measure of time (NASA)

 WEATHER: what conditions of the

atmosphere are over a short period of time
(NASA)

 CLIMATE: long-term weather; typically, 30-

year average weather statistics
GLOBAL CLIMATES
THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

Systematic view of the components of the earth’s global weather and climate system which involves mutual
interactions between components of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere (IPCC)
ANNUAL and GLOBAL MEAN
ENERGY BALANCE

Reference: Kiehl and Trenberth, 1997 as cited by Lasco (ENS 275 powerpoint)
DEFINITION OF CLIMATE CHANGE
RADIATIVE FORCING
NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC CAUSES
ALBEDO EFFECT
CLIMATE CHANGE
 “any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity”
 due to alterations in the energy balance of the
climate system expressed in terms of radiative
forcing:
Any change in the average net radiative
balance at the top of the atmosphere due to
variations in natural intensity of incoming
solar radiation or outgoing infrared energy

Reference: IPCC, 2007

PAST WORLD CLIMATES

Reference: Paleomap Project (http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm)

NATURAL CAUSES
 Solar activity:
change in intensity of
solar radiation
 Volcanic activity
 El Nino-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)
PALEOCLIMATIC DATA
 PALEOCLIMATIC DATA

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/20000yrfig.htm
  Explanation: Milankovitch or Astronomical Theory of
Climate Change
 Changes in tilt and orbit (closeness of earth to the sun)
causes changes in climate

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/20000yrfig.htm
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html
ANTHROPOGENIC CAUSES
 Increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in
atmosphere leads to enhanced greenhouse effect

 GHGs:
 triatomic molecules: easily excited by IR radiation
 thus play a key role in absorption of terrestrial
radiation

 Main GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, Ozone

 EVIDENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC CAUSES:

 Past 10,000 years: earth's temperature and

atmospheric CO2 has been relatively stable (mean T
increase not > 1 degree C per century)
 fluctuations likely due to: variation in solar activity and
periodic changes in ocean currents
 After industrial revolution: dramatic increase in
CO2 concentrations

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/20000yrfig.htm
 THE ICE-ALBEDO EFFECT
 Albedo (α): quantity that indicates how well a surface
reflects solar energy ("whiteness" of a surface)

 Ice-Albedo effect/feedback:
 As ice melts, more exposed ocean water and land change Earth's
albedo
 leads to increased absorption of energy that further warms the
planet

Reference: National Snow and Ice Data Center

IPCC REPORT, 2007
 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
 Warming trends observed globally since 1979
 Global mean trend of +1.2% increase in precipitable
water vapor over ocean
 Cumulative loss of glacier mass balance in many
regions
 Ocean heat content increasing
OBSERVATIONS
 Observed mean temperature anomalies (or departures from the
1971-2000 normal values) from 1951 to 2010 indicate an increase of
0.648 °C or an average of 0.0108 °C per year-increase
 During the last 60 years: maximum and minimum
temperatures increased by 0.36 °C and 1.0 °C

 statistically significant increasing number of hot

days but decreasing number of cool nights
 Increased frequency of La Niña and El Niño
(Amadore, 2005):
 1950-1970: 3 La Niña, 2 El Niño episodes
 1970-2000: 5 La Niña, 7 El Niño episodes
CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS
1. Globally averaged surface T will increase
 Full Range: 1.1 to 6.4 degrees C
 Best Estimate: 1.8 to 4.0 degrees C

2. Global average water vapor concentration and

precipitation will increase

3. Global mean sea level will rise

 Range: 7 to 23 inches
PROJECTIONS:
 Mean temperatures in all areas are expected to rise by
0.9 °C to 1.1 °C in 2020 and by 1.8 °C to 2.2 °C in 2050.
 reduction in rainfall in most parts of the country:
summer (MAM) season
 rainfall increase likely during the southwest
monsoon (JJA) season until the transition (SON)
season in most areas
 hot temperatures will continue to become more
frequent in the future.
 heavy daily rainfall
will become more
frequent
 extreme rainfall
projected to increase
 number of dry days is
expected to increase in
all parts of the world in
2020 and 2050
Reference: WHO (http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/)
CO2 Production per Person
In Asia:
 Increased losses in
agricultural production:
 Ave. annual damage due to
typhoons = 70.3%
 Rp.36 trilyun total damage to
crops due to drought
 Indonesia rice yields declined
with higher night T (1 deg C
increase in minimum T in dry
season corresponded to 10%
decrease in yield)
 Water stress for irrigation:
estimated rice production
losses between 5-25%
(rainfed) and 27% (irrigated)
 Increased flooding and
landslides
 7 extreme tropical
cyclones (1991-2004)
 Impacts to health:
 Water availability: 1 out of
5 people in 24 provinces
already use dubious water
sources
 Amplified transmission of
dengue, malaria: doctor to
patient ratio is 1:20,000
(WHO = 1:10,000)
 Impacts to ecosystems:
 2nd largest coral reef cover in
the world: massive coral
bleaching: affect fisheries
(1998, 2010)
 biodiversity hotspot

 Socio-economic impacts:
43% of population already live
on less than $2 a day
GLOBAL EFFORTS
 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC):
foundation for global efforts (1992 Rio Summit)
 aim: stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic [ human-induced] interference with the
climate system
 187 countries ratified
 Kyoto Protocol (1997): more binding
 aim of reducing CO2 emissions to 55 percent of 1990 level
 signed and ratified by 191 countries (2011)
 Reduce fossil fuel emissions
 Control deforestation
 Promote forest conservation and tree planting
THANK YOU!
REFERENCES
 http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html
 http://focusweb.org/node/1924
 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html
 http://blogs.panda.org/coral_triangle/2010/04/01/dry-lands-and-effects-of-climate-change-in-mindoro-philippines/
 http://climate.gov.ph/index.php/documents
 http://www.doe.gov.ph/cc/ccp.htm
 http://climate.gov.ph/index.php/nccap-executive-summary
 http://forestpolicyresearch.com/2009/01/28/philippines-history-on-landslides-forests-lives-lost/
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/nov/03/food.climatechange
 http://earthisours.blogspot.com/2008/04/global-warming-may-turn-philppines-into.html
 http://ecohope.blogspot.com/2009/09/typhoon-ondoy-in-manila-philippines.html
 http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/paleoclimate.htm
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation
 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/sci_nat/04/climate_change/html/climate.stm
 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html
 http://www.isover.com/Q-A/Green-facts-global-challenges/What-is-climate-change
 http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/
 http://www.teachersdomain.org/assets/wgbh/ipy07/ipy07_int_albedo/ipy07_int_albedo.html
 http://www.gaiadiscovery.com/climate-change_adaptation/climate-change-and-effects-on-the-philippines.html
 http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPHILIPPINES/Resources/PH_Low_Carbon_Transport_and_Power.pdf
 Climate Change in the Philippines. PAGASA-DOST. February 2011.
 Amadore, Leoncio A. 2005. Crisis or Opportunity, Climate Change Impacts and the Philippines. Greenpeace
 Southeast Asia. At http://www.greenpeace.org/seasia/en/asia-energy-revolution/climate-change/philippinesclimate-impacts.
 Presentation, Dr. Rodel Lasco, ENS 275, 1st sem 2012-13
 Presentation, Dr. Decibel Eslava, ENS201, 1st sem 2012-13