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Observed

Climate Trends
and projected

Climate Change
in the Philippines

John A. Manalo
Impact Assessment and Application Section,
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
PAGASA-DOST
john.manalo1234@gmail.com

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
*Email: john.manalo1234@gmail.com

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Outline
• Observed Trends: Global and the Philippines

• Downscaling Climate Projections

• Climate Projections: SRES– and RCP– based
climate projections

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Distinguishing the difference

Weather Climate
• Is a specific meteorological • The average weather
event or condition that conditions over a long
happens over a period of period of time (typically 30
hours or a few days. years).

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pacificclimatefutures.net/ PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . Source: http://www.

Weather and climate information being provided by PAGASA Past Present Future PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

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Agusan del Norte is located in the Northeastern part of Mindanao PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Climate type II – It has a very pronounced maximum rain period from December to February with no dry Season PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

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Example: Air temperature over five days weather or climate? weather PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Example: Air temperature over five years Climate variability or climate change? PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .What is Climate variability? Climate variability refers to shorter term fluctuations in climate such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon.

El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) El Niño La Niña Source: http://www.noaa.esrl.gov PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

El Niño affects several regions across the globe PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Some of the Impacts of El Niño in the Philippines PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Feb 2006 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006 Landslide: Ginsaugon.Some of the Impacts of La Niña in the Philippines ST.

Factors causing climate variability in the Philippines PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

The SW and NE monsoon in the Philippines June-July-August October-November-December PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Tropical cyclone occurrence (based on 1951–2013 data of PAGASA) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Seasonality of tropical cyclone entering the PAR (based on 1951–2013 data of PAGASA) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) Source: Lutgens & Tarbuck 2001 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

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Frequency of Tropical Cyclones which crossed the Agusan del Norte for the period 1948 to 2016 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Climate Change? Is that really happening? PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Why Do We Need To Know About Climate Change? PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

We need to understand the kind of changes that are taking place and the way it will affect us PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

• “Refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods” – UNFCCC PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .Climate change defined: • “Any change in climate over time. whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity” – IPCC (2007).

precipitation. build-up of greenhouse including average gases in the temperature and atmosphere.Difference GLOBAL WARMING CLIMATE CHANGE is the increase of the is a broader term that Earth’s average surface refers to long-term temperature due to a changes in climate. PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

wikipedia.Human influence on global warming Source: http://en.org/wiki/Portal:Global_warming PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

PAGASA Bindoff et al.1.. 2013). 2013 . Figure 1. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.Anthropogenic role in warming “.” (IPCC. PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority Source: FAQ 10.

Sources of greenhouse gases Greenhouse Atmospheric Natural Sources Human-Induced Sources Gas Lifetime Carbon Soils (biological Burning of fossil fuels 5-200 years Dioxide(Co2) processes) Transport Ocean industries Land-use changes Methane  Wetlands Flooded rice agriculture 12-17 years CH4  Termites Livestock production  Ocean Waste management system (landfills. etc.) Nitrous Oxides Tropical soils Nitrogen-based fertilizers and 12-17 years (wet forests) chemicals Ocean Industrial sources CFC Molecules None Coolants 45 years Sealants Insulations PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Human activities produce greenhouse gases energy production. aerosol spray: husbandry: methane(CH4) Transport: CO2) chlorofluorcarbons(CFCs) vehicle exhaust : ozone(O3) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . industry:carbon dioxide(CO2) waste landfill: Methane(CH4) freezer.

85°C 1880-2012 (IPCC AR5) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority Source: IPCC AR5 WG1 PAGASA .Global warming: Indicative of climate change Is Global Temperature Rising? 0.

Global warming: Indicative of anthropogenic climate change Image source: NASA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Declining Arctic sea ice extent Source: US-EPA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

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Global warming: Indicative of climate change Is Global Temperature Rising? Earth’s Long Term (1880-2016) Warming Trend (5-year average) Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

2016 global mean temperature is the highest PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

69 2 2015 0.63 1.66 1.33 5 2010 0.gov/sotc/global/201713.62 1.26 6 2013 0. PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .62 3 2017 0. Ten Warmest Years (1880–2017) RANK: 1880– YEAR ANOMALY °C ANOMALY °F 2017 1 2016 0.19 8 2009 0.84 1.15 9 1998 0.noaa.51 4 2014 0.ncdc. published online January 2018.12 NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. retrieved on July 23. 2018 from https://www.21 7 2005 0.67 1.70 1.13 10 2012 0.74 1.64 1. State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for Annual 2017.90 1.94 1.

Latest from WMO DOST-PAGASA PAGASA The Weather and Climate Authority Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

What are the Observed Climate Trends in the Philippines ? PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

a 0.99˚ C annual minimum 0.68˚C increase in annual mean temperature has been observed 0.Observed climate trends in the Philippines: Over the past 65 years (1951-2015).24˚C annual maximum temperature increase temperature increase PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Wetting/drying tendency of annual total rainfall in the Philippines (1951-2010) • Parts of central and northern Luzon • Parts of eastern Visayas • Northeastern and southwestern sections Mindanao • Northern sections of Luzon • Parts of western Visayas • Central and western sections Mindanao PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

2016 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . Increasing and decreasing trends in seasonal rainfall (1951-2010) Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Source: IAAS.

2014 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . Increasing number of hot days and decreasing cold nights Hot days Cold Nights Source: Cinco et al.

2015 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . Increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (1951–2010) Intensity Frequency Source: Cinco et al.

Slightly decreasing in number of Tropical Cyclones TCs Source: Cinco et al.. 2016 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Slightly increasing number of intense TCs (maximum sustained winds >170kph) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Will those changes continue in the future? PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

. increase in ocean green house gases) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .Understanding the difference Weather forecast Climate projection • The state of the atmosphere • A likelihood of something to (or the weather situation) at happen in climate several a particular location over a decades or centuries in the short period of time future • Highly dependent on the • Conditional climate initial state of the expectations based on atmosphere and the upper scenarios (e.g.

Understanding how Climate Projections are made PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Modeling the climate system mid-1970s mid-1980s early-1990s Late 1990s Early 2000s Late 2000s Present PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Growth of Climate Modeling PAGASA Payong © Crown copyright The Weather Met Office and Climate Authority PAGASA .

4.5. or • Forestry technology associated with any RCP) • Land use NAMES A1. 8. Different scenarios SRES .Special Report on RCP – Representative SCENARIO Emissions Scenarios Concentration Pathways Socio-economic driven scenarios Emission-driven scenarios DESCRIPTION Describes a wide range of potential futures for the main drivers of climate change – greenhouse gases.6. • Energy production/use BASES • Technology (No fixed sets of assumptions related to • Agriculture population growth. air pollutant emissions & land use • Demography RADIATIVE FORCING • Economic development RCP scenarios are new scenarios that specify • Regionalization concentrations and corresponding emissions. 6.0. economic development. B2 families RCP 2.5 (Wm-2) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . A2. B1.

5) overshoot pathway RCP 6 to 6 W/m² at stabilization after 2100 Stabilization without overshoot pathway RCP 4. RCP 4. RCP 6.5 W/m² Comparison of CO2 concentrations from in 2100. B1) and Stabilization without RCP (RCP 3.5 W/m² at stabilization after 2100 Peak in radiative RCP 2.5.SRES vs RCP Rising radiative RCP 8. A1FI.6 forcing at ~ 3 W/m² before 2100 and decline PAGASA Source: IPCCPayong AR5 WG1 The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . SRES (A1B. RCP 8.5 to 4.5 forcing pathway leading to 8. A2.

• 1.5).4-3. Sources: IPCC.1-2.5).1 °C (RCP6.0).6-4. Knutti & Sedlacek.6 °C (RCP4.3-1. 2013. for 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005. 2013 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . & • 2. • 1.Global climate projections: Mean Temperature SRES(CMIP3) vs RCPs CMIP5 GCM model Global climate model experiments indicate a global warming of • 0.7 °C (RCP2.8 °C (RCP8.6).

Impact assessors need regional detail to assess vulnerability and possible adaptation strategies PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . Downscaling: Regional Climate Modeling(RCM) GCM lack regional details due to coarse resolution for many climate studies -> needs fine scale information to be derived from GCM output.

New experiments using different RCMs Domain: 110°-160° East 0°-22° North Resolution: 25km and 12Km Baseline: 1971-2000 Time slice: 2036-2065 (Mid 21st Century) 2070-2099 (Late 21st Century) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

RCMs used by: PRECIS CCAM RegCM4 HadGEM3-RA Number of Model ensemble: Single model – A1B SEACAM -6 members – A!B 12 model members – RCP8. List of utilized GCMs and RCMs to generate high-resolution climate projections for the Philippines.5 7 model members – RCP4.5 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

9 +1.4°C (2036-2065) 2.8 RCP4.7 to +3.3 to +2.1 12 model 7 model MDGF SEACAM – SRES A1B simulations simulations* Report Report *relative to 1971 to 2000 PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .0°C+1.5 1.5 to +2.9°C 1.9°C 1.5 to +4.2(2036-2065) RCP8.3 (2030-2059) +2.Projected Annual Mean Temperature Change* SUMMARY of CHANGES Scenario Mid-21st century End of the 21st century (2036-2065) (2070-2099) A1B +1.3°C 1.4 to +2.5 +0.9 to +1.2°C 0.6°C – 2.0 +2.

Possible risks associated with warmer temperature PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Projected changes in seasonal total rainfall by the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov Wettest Possible Median Driest Possible PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Possible risk associated with increased/enhanced rainfall in the future PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

Possible risk associated with drier
condition in the future

Source: http://opinion.inquirer.net

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Projected future change in tropical
cyclones to affect the Philippines

Source: Daron et al. 2016, DFID project, UK- Met-office report

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Some of the Impacts of strong tropical cyclones

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and our whole locality resilient to climate variability and change? PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . what can we do now to make our families. So. businesses. communities.

Rise Temperature patterns terrestrial Hazards that are associated with extreme events Hazards that are associated with changing climate “Normals” CCA and DRR: point of conceptual convergence (Source: Gotangco 2012) PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .g. Sea Level mean Precipitation technological. Link of DRR and CCA Climate Change Disaster Risk Adaptation: Management Reduce risk to: Reduce risk to: Gradual changes in Extreme weather Climate and Geophysi Ecological event with weather cal Events climatic parameters increased frequency related Events and severity events Other events Changes in Changes in Direct connection (e.

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Climate Change Impacts PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

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Projected changes in seasonal rainfall over Agusan del Norte by the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario Wettest Possible Most Likely Driest Possible PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .

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Claire Scannell. Ian Macadam. Kimberli Anne Aquino Joseph Daron. Emma D. Cinco. Manalo. David Hein. Ares. John A. Ron Kahana. Jack Katzfey and Dewi Kirono. Wilmer Agustin. Richard Jones. Marcelino Q. PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA . Rosanna Amato. Florian Gallo. Villafuerte II. and David Corbelli. Simon Tucker. Acknowledgements Thelma A.

ph/ www. Thank you!  Contact us: Impact Assessment and Application Section Climatology and Agrometeorology Division.GOV.gov.DOST.PH @dost_pagasa PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA .dost.pagasa. Cinco email: telacebes@yahoo.facebook.com/PAGASA. DOST-PAGASA +632-434-58-82/434-8130 Thelma A.com http://www.