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Observed

Climate Trends
and projected

Climate Change
in the Philippines

John A. Manalo
Impact Assessment and Application Section,
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
PAGASA-DOST
john.manalo1234@gmail.com

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration


*Email: john.manalo1234@gmail.com

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Outline
• Observed Trends: Global and the Philippines

• Downscaling Climate Projections

• Climate Projections: SRES– and RCP– based


climate projections

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Distinguishing the difference

Weather Climate
• Is a specific meteorological • The average weather
event or condition that conditions over a long
happens over a period of period of time (typically 30
hours or a few days. years).

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Source: http://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/

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Weather and climate information being provided by PAGASA

Past Present Future

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Agusan del Norte is located
in the Northeastern part of
Mindanao

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Climate type II – It has a very pronounced maximum rain period from
December to February with no dry Season

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Example: Air temperature over five days
weather or climate?

weather

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Example: Air temperature over five years
Climate variability or climate change?

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What is Climate variability?
Climate variability refers to shorter term
fluctuations in climate such as those caused by
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Phenomenon.

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El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
El Niño La Niña

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov

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El Niño affects several regions across the globe

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Some of the
Impacts of El
Niño in the
Philippines

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Some of the Impacts of La Niña in
the Philippines

ST. BERNARD
LANDSLIDE
Feb 2006

Landslide: Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

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Factors causing climate variability in the
Philippines

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The SW and NE monsoon in the Philippines
June-July-August October-November-December

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Tropical cyclone occurrence
(based on 1951–2013 data of PAGASA)

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Seasonality of tropical cyclone entering the PAR
(based on 1951–2013 data of PAGASA)

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Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Source: Lutgens & Tarbuck 2001

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Frequency of Tropical Cyclones which crossed the Agusan
del Norte for the period 1948 to 2016

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Climate Change?
Is that really happening?

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Why Do We Need To
Know About Climate
Change?

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We need to
understand the kind of
changes that are
taking place and the
way it will affect us

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Climate change defined:

• “Any change in climate over time, whether due to


natural variability or as a result of human activity” –
IPCC (2007).

• “Refers to a change of climate that is attributed


directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods” – UNFCCC

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Difference
GLOBAL WARMING CLIMATE CHANGE
is the increase of the is a broader term that
Earth’s average surface refers to long-term
temperature due to a changes in climate,
build-up of greenhouse including average
gases in the temperature and
atmosphere. precipitation.

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Human influence on global warming

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Global_warming

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Anthropogenic role in warming

“.. It is extremely likely


that human influence
has been the dominant
cause of the observed
warming since the
mid-20th century.”
(IPCC, 2013).

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The Weather and Climate Authority Source: FAQ 10.1, Figure 1,PAGASA
Bindoff et al. 2013
Sources of greenhouse gases
Greenhouse Atmospheric
Natural Sources Human-Induced Sources
Gas Lifetime
Carbon Soils (biological Burning of fossil fuels 5-200 years
Dioxide(Co2) processes)
Transport
Ocean
industries
Land-use changes
Methane  Wetlands Flooded rice agriculture 12-17 years
CH4
 Termites Livestock production
 Ocean Waste management system
(landfills, etc.)
Nitrous Oxides Tropical soils Nitrogen-based fertilizers and 12-17 years
(wet forests) chemicals
Ocean Industrial sources
CFC Molecules None Coolants 45 years
Sealants
Insulations

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Human activities produce greenhouse gases

energy production, industry:carbon dioxide(CO2) waste landfill: Methane(CH4)

freezer, aerosol spray:


husbandry: methane(CH4) Transport: CO2)
chlorofluorcarbons(CFCs)
vehicle exhaust : ozone(O3)

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Global warming: Indicative of climate change
Is Global Temperature Rising?

0.85°C
1880-2012
(IPCC AR5)

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Global warming: Indicative of anthropogenic
climate change

Image source: NASA

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Declining Arctic sea ice extent

Source: US-EPA

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Global warming: Indicative of climate change
Is Global Temperature Rising?
Earth’s Long Term (1880-2016) Warming Trend (5-year average)

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

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2016 global mean temperature is the highest

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Ten Warmest Years (1880–2017)
RANK: 1880–
YEAR ANOMALY °C ANOMALY °F
2017
1 2016 0.94 1.69
2 2015 0.90 1.62
3 2017 0.84 1.51
4 2014 0.74 1.33
5 2010 0.70 1.26
6 2013 0.67 1.21
7 2005 0.66 1.19
8 2009 0.64 1.15
9 1998 0.63 1.13
10 2012 0.62 1.12
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Climate Report for Annual
2017, published online January 2018, retrieved on July 23, 2018
from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201713.

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Latest from WMO

DOST-PAGASA
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What are the Observed
Climate Trends in the
Philippines ?

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Observed climate trends in the Philippines:
Over the past 65 years (1951-2015),
a 0.68˚C increase in annual mean
temperature has been observed

0.99˚ C annual minimum 0.24˚C annual maximum


temperature increase temperature increase

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Wetting/drying tendency of annual total
rainfall in the Philippines (1951-2010)
• Parts of central and
northern Luzon

• Parts of eastern Visayas

• Northeastern and
southwestern sections
Mindanao

• Northern sections of Luzon

• Parts of western Visayas

• Central and western


sections Mindanao

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Increasing and decreasing trends in
seasonal rainfall (1951-2010)
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Source: IAAS, 2016

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Increasing number of hot days and
decreasing cold nights
Hot days Cold Nights

Source: Cinco et al. 2014

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Increasing frequency of
extreme rainfall events (1951–2010)
Intensity Frequency

Source: Cinco et al. 2015

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Slightly decreasing in number of Tropical
Cyclones TCs

Source: Cinco et al., 2016

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Slightly increasing number of intense TCs
(maximum sustained winds >170kph)

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Will those changes
continue in the future?

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Understanding the difference

Weather forecast Climate projection


• The state of the atmosphere • A likelihood of something to
(or the weather situation) at happen in climate several
a particular location over a decades or centuries in the
short period of time future

• Highly dependent on the • Conditional climate


initial state of the expectations based on
atmosphere and the upper scenarios (e.g., increase in
ocean green house gases)

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Understanding how

Climate
Projections
are made

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Modeling the climate system

mid-1970s mid-1980s early-1990s Late 1990s

Early 2000s Late 2000s Present

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Growth of Climate Modeling

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Different scenarios
SRES - Special Report on RCP – Representative
SCENARIO

Emissions Scenarios Concentration Pathways

Socio-economic driven scenarios Emission-driven scenarios


DESCRIPTION

Describes a wide range of potential futures for


the main drivers of climate change –
greenhouse gases, air pollutant emissions &
land use
• Demography RADIATIVE FORCING
• Economic development RCP scenarios are new scenarios that specify
• Regionalization concentrations and corresponding emissions,
• Energy production/use
BASES

• Technology (No fixed sets of assumptions related to


• Agriculture population growth, economic development, or
• Forestry technology associated with any RCP)
• Land use
NAMES

A1, A2, B1, B2 families RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 (Wm-2)

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SRES vs RCP
Rising radiative

RCP 8.5
forcing pathway
leading to 8.5 W/m²
Comparison of CO2 concentrations from in 2100.
SRES (A1B, A1FI, A2, B1) and
Stabilization without
RCP (RCP 3, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 8.5) overshoot pathway

RCP 6
to 6 W/m² at
stabilization after
2100

Stabilization without
overshoot pathway

RCP 4.5
to 4.5 W/m² at
stabilization after
2100

Peak in radiative

RCP 2.6
forcing at ~ 3 W/m²
before 2100 and
decline

PAGASA Source: IPCCPayong


AR5 WG1
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Global climate projections: Mean Temperature
SRES(CMIP3) vs RCPs CMIP5 GCM model

Global climate model experiments


indicate a global warming of
• 0.3-1.7 °C (RCP2.6),
• 1.1-2.6 °C (RCP4.5),
• 1.4-3.1 °C (RCP6.0), &
• 2.6-4.8 °C (RCP8.5);
for 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005. Sources: IPCC, 2013; Knutti & Sedlacek, 2013

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Downscaling:
Regional Climate
Modeling(RCM)
GCM lack regional details due to
coarse resolution for many climate
studies -> needs fine scale
information to be derived from
GCM output.
Impact assessors need regional detail to
assess vulnerability and possible
adaptation strategies

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New experiments using different RCMs

Domain: 110°-160° East 0°-22° North


Resolution: 25km and 12Km
Baseline: 1971-2000
Time slice: 2036-2065 (Mid 21st Century)
2070-2099 (Late 21st Century)
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List of utilized
GCMs and RCMs
to generate high-resolution
climate projections for
the Philippines.
RCMs used by:

PRECIS
CCAM
RegCM4
HadGEM3-RA

Number of Model ensemble:


Single model – A1B
SEACAM -6 members – A!B
12 model members – RCP8.5
7 model members – RCP4.5

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Projected Annual Mean Temperature Change*
SUMMARY of CHANGES
Scenario Mid-21st century End of the 21st century
(2036-2065) (2070-2099)
A1B +1.4 to +2.0 +2.7 to +3.8
RCP4.5 +0.9 to +1.9 +1.3 to +2.5

1.2°C
0.9°C
1.6°C – 2.3°C
1.9°C
1.4°C (2036-2065)
2.0°C+1.2(2036-2065)
RCP8.5
to +2.3
(2030-2059)
+2.5 to +4.1

12 model
7 model
MDGF
SEACAM – SRES A1B
simulations
simulations*
Report
Report

*relative to 1971 to 2000


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Possible risks associated with warmer
temperature

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Projected changes in seasonal total rainfall by the Mid-21st
Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario
Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Wettest
Possible

Median

Driest
Possible

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Possible risk associated with
increased/enhanced rainfall in the future

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Possible risk associated with drier
condition in the future

Source: http://opinion.inquirer.net

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Projected future change in tropical
cyclones to affect the Philippines

Source: Daron et al. 2016, DFID project, UK- Met-office report

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Some of the Impacts of strong tropical cyclones

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So, what can we do now to
make our families, communities,
businesses, and our whole
locality resilient to
climate variability and change?

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Link of DRR and CCA
Climate Change Disaster Risk
Adaptation: Management

Reduce risk to: Reduce risk to:


Gradual changes in Extreme weather Climate and Geophysi Ecological
event with weather cal Events
climatic parameters
increased frequency related Events
and severity events

Other events
Changes in Changes in Direct connection (e.g.
Sea Level mean Precipitation technological,
Rise Temperature patterns terrestrial
Hazards that are
associated with
extreme events

Hazards that are


associated with
changing climate
“Normals”
CCA and DRR: point of conceptual convergence (Source: Gotangco 2012)

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Climate Change Impacts

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Projected changes in seasonal rainfall over Agusan del Norte by the
Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario

Wettest
Possible

Most Likely

Driest
Possible

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Acknowledgements

Thelma A. Cinco, Emma D. Ares, Marcelino Q.


Villafuerte II, John A. Manalo, Wilmer Agustin,
Kimberli Anne Aquino

Joseph Daron, Richard Jones, Ian Macadam,


Florian Gallo, Ron Kahana, Claire Scannell,
David Hein, Simon Tucker, Rosanna Amato, and
David Corbelli;

Jack Katzfey and Dewi Kirono.

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Thank you! 
Contact us:
Impact Assessment and Application Section
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, DOST-PAGASA
+632-434-58-82/434-8130

Thelma A. Cinco
email: telacebes@yahoo.com

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH
@dost_pagasa

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