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Team Project

(Quebec Referendum Vote)


August 28th, 2010

Team 5
Kim Dae Yon: The Analysis of Case 4.4
Shin Doo Sung: The Analysis of Case A13.3
Kwon Soon Ook:
Ook: Analysis Verification, Summary and Reporting

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Quebec Referendum Vote Introduction

ÿ On October 30, 1995, a referendum was held on in which the people of Quebec voted whether to
separate from Canada and form an independent nation.
ÿ The non-Francophone (Non-french speaking) people of Quebec
- About 20% of the population and very much want to remain Canadians A large number of
e nof votes
ÿ The Francophone people of Quebec
- Remaining 80% of the population a majority of e yesf votes
ÿ The Result of referendum Ę Reference: Quebec independence referendum, 1995 in Wikipedia
Total votes % of votes Remarks
Valid ballots 4,671,008 98.18% No: 2,362,648 (50.58%), Yes: 2,308,360 (49.42%)
Rejected ballots 86,501 1.82% e nof side won by only 54,288 votes
Participation rate 4,757,509 93.52%

ÿ Was there electoral fraud?


ÿ Suspicion
 There was a claim that poll scrutineers rejected a disproportionate number of ballots in ridings
where
- the percentage of e Yesf votes was low
- there are large number of Allophones(first language is neither English nor French) and
Anglophone (English-speaking) residents.
ÿ Possible evidences of electoral fraud
 In ridings where there was a low percentage of e Yesf votes there was a high percentage of
rejected ballots.
 In ridings where there was large percentage of Allophone and/or Anglophone there were high
percentages of rejected ballots
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Quebec Referendum Vote Introduction

ÿ Survey (In total 125 ridings)


 Percentage of rejected ballots in referendum
 Percentage of e Yesf votes
 Percentage of Allophones
 Percentage of Anglophones
ÿ Conduct a statistical analysis to determine where there are indication that
electoral fraud took place

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Quebec Referendum Vote Preliminary Summary

First the statistics of each column of the data were summarized in the below
table

Pct Reject Pct Yes Pct Allo Pct Anglo

Ⳳ‫܉‬ 1.79232 Ⳳ‫܉‬ 49.7728 Ⳳ‫܉‬ 7.8544 Ⳳ‫܉‬ 8.2944


ⶅ∩ Ὅ║ 0.093388895 ⶅ∩ Ὅ║ 1.345643219 ⶅ∩ Ὅ║ 1.030684398 ⶅ∩ Ὅ║ 1.048118009
∺ẂԻ 1.69 ∺ẂԻ 54.32 ∺ẂԻ 2 ∺ẂԻ 3.7
⚅᝱Ի 1.56 ⚅᝱Ի 71.02 ⚅᝱Ի 0.2 ⚅᝱Ի 0.6
ⶅ∩ ⳡ║ 1.044119583 ⶅ∩ ⳡ║ 15.04474855 ⶅ∩ ⳡ║ 11.52340188 ⶅ∩ ⳡ║ 11.71831558
ᚭ᧙ 1.090185703 ᚭ᧙ 226.344459 ᚭ᧙ 132.788791 ᚭ᧙ 137.31892
◑೭ 64.59764617 ◑೭ 0.8935298 ◑೭ 2.636555261 ◑೭ 5.682619233
ᾅ೭ 7.163690281 ᾅ೭ -1.169077527 ᾅ೭ 1.865271353 ᾅ೭ 2.380358097
ᖽ‭ 10.83 ᖽ‭ 69.71 ᖽ‭ 46.2 ᖽ‭ 58.2
⚅᪵Ի 0.78 ⚅᪵Ի 3.62 ⚅᪵Ի 0 ⚅᪵Ի 0.3
⚅఩Ի 11.61 ⚅఩Ի 73.33 ⚅఩Ի 46.2 ⚅఩Ի 58.5
⺒ 224.04 ⺒ 6221.6 ⺒ 981.8 ⺒ 1036.8
‫❊ة‬ᭁ 125 ‫❊ة‬ᭁ 125 ‫❊ة‬ᭁ 125 ‫❊ة‬ᭁ 125
ᰉᇙ ᭁ∩(95.0%) 0.18484278 ᰉᇙ ᭁ∩(95.0%) 2.663404833 ᰉᇙ ᭁ∩(95.0%) 2.040013109 ᰉᇙ ᭁ∩(95.0%) 2.074519108

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Quebec Referendum Vote Correlation (1)

ÿ Relationship between percentage of rejected ballots and Percentage of e yesf votes

 Scatter diagram
      
14
12
10
8
      ï     
Pct Reject
6
4 Linear (Pct Reject)
2
0 Linear (Pct Reject)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
    

It shows negative linear relationship.

 Correlation

Pct Yes Pct Reject


Pct Yes 1
Pct Reject -0.1787 1

It shows weak negative relationship.

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Quebec Referendum Vote Correlation (2)

ÿ Relationship between percentage of rejected ballots and Percentage of Allophones

 Scatter diagram

 !"      
15

10
      ï     Pct Reject
5
Linear (Pct Reject)
0 Linear (Pct Reject)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
    !" 

It shows positive linear relationship.

 Correlation

Pct Allo Pct Reject


Pct Allo 1
Pct Reject 0.3600 1

It shows moderate positive relationship.

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Quebec Referendum Vote Correlation (3)

ÿ Relationship between percentage of rejected ballots and Percentage of Anglophones

 Scatter diagram

 !"      
15

10
      y = 0.006x + 1.742 Pct Reject
5
Linear (Pct Reject)
0 Linear (Pct Reject)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
    !" 

It shows positive linear relationship. (but close to no relationship)

 Correlation

Pct Anglo Pct Reject


Pct Anglo 1
Pct Reject 0.0678 1

It shows weak positive relationship.

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Quebec Separation? Introduction

The Financial Post Magazines conducted a survey Quebecers in 1993 before


the Quebec Referendum Vote in 2005.

- A total of 641 adult Quebecers were interviewed.


- e Do you want Quebec to separate from Canada and become an independent
country?f
- The survey recorded the language of the interviewees, English or French.

Infer from the data:

a. If the referendum were held on the day of the survey, would Quebec vote to
remain in Canada?

b. Estimate with 95% confidence the difference between French and English-
speaking Quebecers in their support for separation?

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Quebec Separation? Hypothesis Test

First we set up the alternative and null hypothesis as below

   O    O  O

Where, p means the population proportion of the Quebecers who answered


e Nof and want to remain Canada (which is denoted for code 1)

Secondly, we looked for the evidence for supporting the alternative hypothesis.
We counted number of code 1 in the total 641 responses and calculated the
Sample proportion ( as below


O
  O
i

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Quebec Separation? Hypothesis Test

Since we assume the null hypothesis is true, we can calculate the test statistic
z as shown in the below equations

( (    
 ! ! !   
(   (   i     

As a third step, p-value is calculated

(  
!   "     !        
!     !  (2.65%)

Because calculated p-value is 2.65%, which is less than the significance


level of 5%, we can reject the null hypothesis H0.

Thus, we can conclude that if the referendum were held on the day of the
survey, Quebec would vote to remain in Canada.
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Quebec Separation? Hypothesis Test

If we make the z-test by using the Excel program, the same results could
be obtained as represented in the below table.

Å 


V 
h 
  

  
 


h 
 
 
 

!  
 
 "

 

!  "
 

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Quebec Separation? Estimation

To answer the question, we calculated the sample proportion who answered


e yes (code 2) or the Francophones and Anglophones.



( ! ! !  
i 



(  ! ! !    O
i  

Because the ( is much di erent rom ( , we can presumably think that

( { ( 

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Quebec Separation? Estimation

Hence, we can estimate the difference of proportion between French and


English-speaking Quebecers in support for separation with the confidence
Level of 1-ʅ (here, 95%)

 (   (  (    (   
(  (    (   (    E     ë
 i i ë

  OOO
   OOO
    O     O 
 OOO
    O     ë
 OO  ë


O O     O
 
O O    

As a conclusion, we could find that L.C.L = 0.41218 and U.C.L = 0.539769.

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Quebec Separation? Estimation

By using the Excel program, we could find the same results.

Å    
 

[   

 
h    
    

# # 
$ #

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