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&

Central Limit Theorem

Jamil Ahmad PhD

Fakulti Pendidikan UKM

What is Statistic?

Which Group is Smarter?

Students Students

102 115 128 109 127 162 131 103

131 89 98 106 96 111 80 109

140 119 93 97 93 87 120 105

109

110

Each individual may be different. If you try to understand a group by remembering the

qualities of each member, you become overwhelmed and fail to understand the group.

2-Sep-18 3

Which group is smarter now?

4

110.54 110.23

answer our question. 2-Sep-18

Math Science

ALI 12 96

AHMAD 45 60

RMASAMY 60 80

T.SENG 80 70

5

SALMAH 22 80

SWEELAN 76 54

KUMARY 55 56

AHCHONG 43 64

AHMOI 67 33

JASTINA 62 73

JASTINI 40 59

JASTISHA 35 83

XXX 25 34

XXX 46 76

XXX 23 83

XXX 32 43

XXX 90 65

XXX 45 64

XXX 85 73

XXX 67 85

XXX 45 90

2-Sep-18

Math Science

ALI 12 91 MATH

AHMAD 45 60

RMASAMY 60 74 MIN = 50.75

T.SENG 80 70

6 SALMAH 22 72 SKOR MINIMUM = 12

SWEELAN 76 54

KUMARY 55 56

AHCHONG 43 64 SKOR MAKSIMUM = 90

AHMOI 67 44

JASTINA 62 73 JULAT = 90-12 = 78

JASTINI 40 59

JASTISHA 35 83

XXX 25 42

XXX 46 76 SAINS

XXX 23 83

XXX 32 43 MIN = 71.0

XXX 90 65

XXX 45 64 SKOR MINIMUM = 42

XXX 85 73

XXX 67 85

XXX 45 90

SKOR MAKSIMUM = 91

MIN(PURATA) 50.75 71.0

JULAT = 91-42= 49

2-Sep-18

What is Statistic?

7

interpretation, analysis, and presentation of data.

organize, summarize, or better understand the information, we

are using statistical methods.

2-Sep-18

There are two fundamental purposes to analyzing data:

8

way by means of one or more summary statistics (Descriptive

statistics).

population based on the characteristics of a sample (Inferential

statistics)

2-Sep-18

Two major branches of statistics

9

specific goals and specific formulas.

1. Descriptive statistics

2. Inferential Statistics

2-Sep-18

Descriptive Statistics

10

our data.

manageable form.

2-Sep-18

Descriptive Statistics

Summarizing Data:

Central Tendency (or Groups’ “Middle Values”)

11

Mean

Median

Mode

Variation (or Summary of Differences Within Groups)

Range

Variance

Standard Deviation

Organize Data

• Tables

• Frequency Distributions

• Relative Frequency Distributions

• Graphs

2-Sep-18

• Bar Chart , Histogram, Polygon

INFERENTIAL SATISTICS

12

2-Sep-18

13

Sample=n=200

min = x

Generalize our findings from

POPULATION=N=1000 the sample to the population

MIN = ? using

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

2-Sep-18

POPULATION AND SAMPLE

14 POPULATION

The totality to whom/which you wish to

generalize your study finding

population and conduct back” the findings/results

study with sample subject from your sample subjects

back to the population

SAMPLE

The subjects you actually “use” in your

study 2-Sep-18

What Is Inferential Statistics?

15

inferences about the characteristics of a populations based on sample data.

The goal is to go beyond the data at hand and make inferences about

population parameters.

parameters of a population based on statistics which describe a sample from

that population.

or random assignment was carried out (i.e., some form of randomization must

is assumed). 2-Sep-18

INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

16

t-Test

One-Way ANOVA (Analysis of Variance)

Two-Way ANOVA

Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA)

ANCOVA

MANCOVA

Correlation

Regression

Chi-Square Test

ect.

2-Sep-18

Important information about samples

may not be important to have a representative sample. We often

use nonprobability sampling with qualitative methods (snowball,

purposive, or convenience samples).

is representative of the population. We will want to generalize our

findings from the sample to the population.

To generalize means that;

we can say that we would expect to have the

same findings if we studied everyone in the

population as we did when we looked at the

sample (within a certain degree of probability)

In studies in which we will generalize from the sample to the population

dimensions as the population.

We will want to use inferential statistics to analyze our data so that we

can infer that findings from a sample are the same as those we would

get from the population.

Theoretically, we must have a normal distribution in order to use

inferential statistics.

We will use sampling methods in which every respondent has a known

probability of selection (probability sampling)

The best type of sampling method to use with inferential statistics is

that in which each participant has an equal probability of selection

(random sampling).

TYPE OF SAMPLING

20

Every member of the Not every member of the population

population had a chance of had a chance of “making it” into

“making it” into your sample your sample

Random Random Random Sampling Sampling Sampling Sampling balling

Sampling Sampling Sampling Sampling

2-Sep-18

Sampling Distributions

21

statistics is that of the sampling distribution. That's

because the use of a sampling distributions is what

allows us to make "probability" statements in

inferential statistics.

2-Sep-18

Sampling Distributions

22

2-Sep-18

POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8

SAMPEL

23

2-Sep-18

POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8

SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

24

2,2

2,4

2,6

2,8

4,2

4,4

4,6

4,8

6,2

6,4

6,6

6,8

8,2

8,4

8,6

8,8 2-Sep-18

POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8

SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

25

2,2 2

2,4 3

2,6 4

2,8 5

4,2 3

4,4 4

4,6 5

4,8 6

6,2 4

6,4 5

6,6 6

6,8 7

8,2 5

8,4 6

8,6 7

8,8 8 2-Sep-18

POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8

SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

26

2,2 2 1/16

2,4 3 1/16

2,6 4 1/16

2,8 5 1/16

4,2 3 1/16

4,4 4 1/16

4,6 5 1/16

4,8 6 1/16

6,2 4 1/16

6,4 5 1/16

6,6 6 1/16

6,8 7 1/16

8,2 5 1/16

8,4 6 1/16

8,6 7 1/16

8,8 8 1/16 2-Sep-18

POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8

SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

27

2,2 2 1/16

2,4 3 1/16

2,6 4 1/16 Population Mean = ??

2,8 5 1/16

4,2 3 1/16 Mean of the sampling distribution of the

4,4 4 1/16 mean = ??

4,6 5 1/16

4,8 6 1/16

6,2 4 1/16

6,4 5 1/16

6,6 6 1/16

6,8 7 1/16

8,2 5 1/16

8,4 6 1/16

8,6 7 1/16

8,8 8 1/16 2-Sep-18

POPULATION: 2, 4, 6, 8

SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

28

2,2 2 1/16

2,4 3 1/16

2,6 4 1/16

Population Mean = (2+4+6+8)/4 = 5

2,8 5 1/16

4,2 3 1/16 Mean of the sampling distribution of the mean

4,4 4 1/16 = (2+3+4+5+3+4+5+6+4+5+6+7+5+6+7+8)/16

4,6 5 1/16

= 80/16

4,8 6 1/16

6,2 4 1/16

=5

6,4 5 1/16 Mean of the sampling distribution of the

6,6 6 1/16

mean is equal to the population mean!

6,8 7 1/16

8,2 5 1/16

That tells you that repeated sampling will,

8,4 6 1/16 over the long run, produce the correct

8,6 7 1/16 mean.

8,8 8 1/16 2-Sep-18

SAMPEL MIN PROBALITY

2,2 2 1/16 Table of Frequency Distribution

2,4 3 1/16

29

2,6 4 1/16 MIN FREQ PROBALITY

2,8 5 1/16 2 1 1/16

4,2 3 1/16 3 2 2/16

4,4 4 1/16 4 3 3/16

4,6 5 1/16 5 4 4/16

4,8 6 1/16

6 3 3/16

6,2 4 1/16

7 2 2/16

6,4 5 1/16

6,6 6 1/16 8 1 1/16

6,8 7 1/16

8,2 5 1/16

8,4 6 1/16

8,6 7 1/16

8,8 8 1/16

2-Sep-18

Histogram

Table of Frequency Distribution

MIN FREQ PROBALITY

30

2 1 1/16

3 2 2/16

4 3 3/16

5 4 4/16

6 3 3/16

7 2 2/16

8 1 1/16

normally distributed (as long as your sample

size is about 30 or more for your sampling).

2-Sep-18

31

2-Sep-18

What is Sampling Distributions?

32

the values of a statistic that results when all possible random samples of a

particular size are drawn from a population.

of the mean.

If you wanted to generate this distribution, you would randomly select a sample,

calculate the mean, randomly select another sample, calculate the mean, and

continue this process until you have calculated the means for all possible

samples. This process will give you a lot of means, and you can construct a line

graph to depict your sampling distribution of the mean

2-Sep-18

33

(as long as your sample size is about 30 or more for your

sampling).

mean is equal to the population mean!

That tells you that repeated sampling will, over the long run,

produce the correct mean. The spread or variance shows you

that sample means will tend to be somewhat different from the

true population mean in most particular samples.

2-Sep-18

34

construct sampling distributions! When conducting research,

researchers typically select only one sample from the population of

interest; they do not collect all possible samples.

The computer program that a researcher uses (e.g., SPSS and SAS)

uses the appropriate sampling distribution for you.

The computer program will look at the type of statistical analysis you

select (and also consider certain additional information that you have

provided, such as the sample size in your study), and then the

statistical program selects the appropriate sampling distribution.

2-Sep-18

Important concepts about sampling distributions:

of interest) for the sample and the population should be the same.

However, there will be some variation in the value of sample means due

to random or sampling error. This refers to things you can’t necessarily

control in a study or when you collect a sample.

The amount of variation that exists among sample means from a

population is called the standard error of the mean.

Standard error decreases as sample size increases.

STANDARD ERROR

36

the standard error.

standard deviation .

variability present in a sampling distribution.

2-Sep-18

Distribution of Sample Means

raw scores in the population (µ)

2. If the population is Normal, the distribution of sample

means is also Normal

3. If the population is not Normal, the distribution of sample

means approaches Normal distribution as the size of

sample on which it is based gets larger Central

Limit

Theorem

Confidence Level and Significance Level

38

characteristics (i.e. distribution, central tendency, and dispersion) of a

single variable, inferential statistics are used to make inferences about

the larger population based on the sample.

Since a sample is a small subset of the larger population, the inferences

are necessarily error prone.

That is, we cannot say with 100% confidence that the characteristics of

the sample accurately reflect the characteristics of the larger population.

Hence, only qualified inferences can be made, within a degree of

certainty, which is often expressed in terms of probability (e.g., 90% or

95% probability that the sample reflects the population).

2-Sep-18

Definition of the Standard Normal Distribution

The Standard Normal distribution follows a normal distribution and has mean 0 and standard

deviation 1

40

2-Sep-18

41

2-Sep-18

42

TERIMA KASIH

2-Sep-18

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