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Statistics & Probability

Basic concepts in

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Submitted by: Almira C. Romero
11- Patella

Submitted to: Ms. Louela Dolotina


Lesson
Outline:
a. Definition of statistical hypothesis
b. Consequences of making a decision
c. The difference of null hypothesis
from alternative hypothesis
d. Two possible errors that could be
committed in a test of hypothesis
DEFINITION OF
STATISTICAL
HYPOTHESIS
Definition of statistical hypothesis

Statistical inference is concerned with either


estimation or evaluation of a statement or
claim about a parameter or a distribution.
Evaluation of a claim about a parameter or a
distribution is done through a statistical test
of hypothesis.
Definition of statistical hypothesis

Describe the El Niño phenomenon


and its possible consequences
further
“The country will experience El Niño
phenomenon in the next few months.”
Definition of statistical hypothesis

1. The occurrence of El Niño phenomenon is not sure.


2. There is a possibility that El Niño phenomenon
may not occur.
3. The effects of El Niño phenomenon are devastating
to the country.
4. Some of the consequences of the El Niño phenomenon
are tolerable while other consequences are not.
5. The validity of the statement could be tested based
on some empirical facts.
Definition of statistical hypothesis

The pronouncement is a claim that may be


true or false. Such claim could be referred to
as a statistical hypothesis and is usually
expressed in terms of the value of a
parameter or the distribution of the
population values.
Definition of statistical hypothesis
A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or
conjecture about the distribution of one or more
random variables.
If a statistical hypothesis completely specifies the
distribution, it is referred to as a
simple hypothesis;
if not, it is referred to as a
composite hypothesis.
CONSEQUENCES OF
MAKING A DECISION
Consequences of making a decision

There are two possible actions that


one can do with the statement
These actions are either to accept the
statement or to reject it. These actions are
brought about by a decision whether the
statement is true or false.
Consequences of making a decision
Possible consequences of accepting that the statement
is true include:
(a) increase the importation of rice in anticipation
of supply shortage;
(b) buy materials for water storage;
(c) use drought-resistant varieties of rice;
(d) invest in programs to make Filipinos ready; and the like.
when the statement is rejected because we think it is false,
possible consequences are
(a) We are not prepared for rice and water shortage;
(b) Farmers experience great loss on production;
Consequences of making a decision

Some of the consequences are tolerable while other consequences


are severe. Experiencing a few days of water shortage is tolerable
but having rice shortage for a month or two is unbearable.

The degree of the possible consequence is the basis in making the


decision. If the consequences of accepting the claim that El Niño
phenomenon is going to happen are tolerable, then we may not
reject the pronouncement.

However, if the consequences are severe, then we reject the claim.


Consequences of making a decision

A test of hypothesis is a procedure based on a


random sample of observations with a given
level of probability of committing an error in
making the decision, whether the hypothesis is
true or false.
DIFFERENCE OF NULL
HYPOTHESIS FROM
ALTERNATIVE
HYPOTHESIS
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, we first formulate the
hypotheses to be tested.

There are two kinds of a statistical hypothesis:


null & alternative hypothesis
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

NULL HYPOTHESIS
the null hypothesis generally expresses the idea of no
difference
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

The null hypothesis, denoted as �0 is the


statement that the value of the parameter is, in
fact, equal to the claimed value. We assume that
the null hypothesis is true until we
prove that it is not.
DIFFERENCE OF NULL HYPOTHESIS FROM
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS

ALTERNATIVE
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS
HYPOTHESIS
expresses the idea of some
difference
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis, denoted as �1 is the


statement that the value of the parameter differs
in some way from the null hypothesis.
The alternative hypothesis can use the
symbols, �� ≠
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

1. A null hypothesis is generally a statement


of no change. Thus, a statement of equality or
one which involves the equality is usually
considered in the null hypothesis.
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

Possible forms of the null hypothesis


include
(a) equality;
(b) less than orequal; and
(c) greater than or equal.
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

2. The statistical hypothesis is about a parameter


or distribution of the population values. Usually,
the parameter is represented by a symbol, like
for the population mean, we use μ.
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

Hence, the null and alternative hypotheses could


be stated using symbols as

“�o: μ = 100 against �1 : μ ≠ 100.”


difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis
3. The null and alternative hypotheses are
complementary
and must not overlap.
(a) �0 : Parameter = Value versus �1: Parameter ≠ Value;
(b) �0 : Parameter = Value versus �1 : Parameter < Value;
(c) �0 : Parameter = Value versus �1 : Parameter > Value;
(d) �0 : Parameter ≤ Value versus �1 : Parameter > Value;
(e) �0 : Parameter ≥ Value versus �1 : Parameter < Value
difference of null hypothesis from
there are twoalternative hypothesis
actions that one can make on the
hypothesis. One
can either reject or fail to reject (accept) a
Action hypothesis.
Hypothesis is TRUE Hypothesis is FALSE
Reject the hypothesis Error Committed No Error Committed
Fail to reject (Accept) No Error Committed Error Committed
the hypothesis
difference of null hypothesis from
alternative hypothesis

There are no errors committed when we


reject a false hypothesis and when we
fail to reject a true hypothesis.
TWO POSSIBLE
ERRORS IN A TEST OF
HYPOTHESIS
Types of error

an error is committed when we reject a


true hypothesis and such error is called
a Type I error.
Types of error

when we fail to reject (accept) a false


hypothesis, we are committing a
Type II error.
Types of error

TYPE
TYPE II ERROR
ERROR
incorrectly rejecting a true null
hypothesis (false negative)

Types of error

TYPE II ERROR
TYPE ERROR
denoted by α “alpha”
Types of error

TYPE II ERROR
incorrectly failing to reject an
untrue null hypothesis
(false positive)
Types of error

TYPE II ERROR
denoted by β “beta”
Key points
- A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or
conjecture about the distribution of one or more
random variables.

- There are two possible actions that one can do


with the statement. These actions are
either to accept the statement or to reject it.
Key points
- There are two kinds of a statistical hypothesis:

the null and the alternative hypothesis.


- Null hypothesis is denoted as �0
- Alternative hypothesis is denoted as �1
-The null and alternative hypotheses are
complementary and must not overlap.
Key points
- There are two basic kinds of error:
Type I Error (α ): incorrectly rejecting a true null
hypothesis (false negative);

and Type II Error (β ): incorrectly failing to reject


an untrue null hypothesis (false positive)