Preparing for Climate Change Impacts on the Northwest Atlantic Marine Ecosystem

Hosted by

University of Maine School of Law and Gulf of Maine Research Institute
26-27 April 2007 Portland, ME

Why We’re Here/What we’re Doing
Societal Relevance Everyone Participates Panels provide a necessary (minimal) degree of background (90 mins) Dealing with uncertainty as we try to develop intelligent and flexible approaches to public policy (should P≤0.05?) Develop active connections among our disciplines and as individuals ~ research and public service Follow-ups

Marine Panel: Lew InczeClimate Change Background Andy Pershing Kevin Friedland GoM Pelagic Ecosystems Fisheries Populations

England
Gld./100 kg
15 12 9

Italy

Holland
6 3

France

1

1300

1400

1500

1600 Year

1700

1800

1900

From H.H. Lamb (1995)
Climate, History and the Modern World

Temperature (˚C) Relative to Present

Last Major Glaciation
(~100,000 yrs)

Holocene Temperature Maximum
Medieval Warm Period
~800-1300 AD

Little Ice Age
~1650-1850 AD

Thousands of years BP)
Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000 7000

Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

6000 5000 4000 3000 22 2000 17 1000 0

12

540 mya

250 mya

65 mya 1.5 mya

Average Global Temp. (˚C)

ice cap during Late Ordovician

Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit
ess rec P ion h of t ee

no qui

xes

Variations in solar output

Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s axis of rotation relative to the orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds, ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust) Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane) Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit
ess rec P ion h of t ee

no qui

xes

Variations in solar output

Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s axis of rotation relative to the orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds, ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust) Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane) Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

IPCC SRES emissions scenarios
HIGHER A1FI End-ofcentury emissions range from 1x to 5x 1990 levels LOWER B1

Temperature

HadCM3 Projected Change in Annual Temperature for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

Comparison of Annual mean SST at Boothbay Harbor and Prince 5, 1924-2000. BBH at 43.84 N, 69.64 W; P5 at 44.947 N, 66.812 W
Annual SST 12.0 10.0 8.0 deg C 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1920
n=32, BBH=1.28 * P5, r2 = 0.72

Warm, moist Dry, cold

BBH Prince 5

1940

1960 Year

1980

2000

2020

Boothbay Harbor Monthly SST Anomaly (°C) 1905 – 2004 Anomaly = deviation from 20th century mean, 1905-1999
1 2 3 4 5

4 3 2 1 0 ­1 ­2 ­3 ­4 15 25 35 45 55 65 Year: 1905 - 2004 75 85 95 04

Month

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 05

• • • •

Temperature is important but not enough Stratification/Vertical Mixing [f (T,S, Wind)] Length of Stratified Season Salinity and Nutrients of Source waters (remote influences)

IMPACTS: • Temperature (north-south shifts in domains/species) • Increased uncertainty and perhaps lower production during faunal transitions • Lots of uncertainty from food web perspective beginning at primary producers

Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org UCS NECIA release—June 2007

Northeastern Temperatures
(annual averages--GFDL, HADCM3 and PCM)

temperature change ( F)

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1900 1950 2000 2050

observations higher emissions lower emissions

o

Higher: 6.5-12.5oF

Lower: 3.5-6.5oF

2oF warming since 1970

2100

Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Synoptic Estimate of Surface Salinity
OA “synoptic” climatology Add Maine Coastal Current

Nesting HOPS in a Coarse-Resolution Climate PCM A.R. Robinson, P.J. Haley, Jr., W.G. Leslie

Dynamically adjusted fields for September 2000

OA slope water climatology

Resulting synoptic estimate

Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000 7000

Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

6000 5000 4000 3000 22 2000 17 1000 0

12

540 mya

250 mya

65 mya 1.5 mya

Average Global Temp. (˚C)

Why the debate/uncertainty? No one would guarantee the future Science has a very high threshold for acceptance Science embraces debate over the details It’s complicated

From a policy standpoint: If the risks are significant, full understanding is hard to come by/long into the future, and the potential (but displaced) costs of inaction approach or exceed the costs of action, are there better decisions than just denial? Has ideology overtaken other forms of debate and deliberation? Should a precautionary policy await the same threshold for acceptance as a scientific hypothesis? Are there collateral benefits to potential actions, such as energy security, profits from innovation, human health, land use and living patterns, better uses for wealth, etc.?

Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

>10 x present

540 mya

250 mya

65 mya 1.5 my

Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

540 mya

250 mya

65 mya 1.5 my

Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

>10 x present

540 mya

250 mya

65 mya 1.5 my

Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

540 mya

250 mya

65 mya 1.5 my

Major tectonic uplift, major erosion (SiO2?), CO2 drawdown, “African” glaciation, global cooling, mass extinctions --what did the meriodonal circulation look like??

ice cap during Late Ordovician

Ice Cap

(1) Astronomical Causes •11 year and 206 year cycles: Cycles of solar variability ( sunspot activity ) •21,000 year cycle: Earth's combined tilt and elliptical orbit around the Sun ( precession of the equinoxes ) •41,000 year cycle: Cycle of the +/- 1.5° wobble in Earth's orbit ( tilt ) •100,000 year cycle: Variations in the shape of Earth's elliptical orbit ( cycle of eccentricity ) (2) Atmospheric Causes •Heat retention: Due to atmospheric gases, mostly gaseous water vapor (not droplets), also carbon dioxide, methane, and a few other miscellaneous gases-- the "greenhouse effect" •Solar reflectivity: Due to white clouds, volcanic dust, polar ice caps (3) Tectonic Causes •Landmass distribution: Shifting continents (continental drift) causing changes in circulatory patterns of ocean currents. It seems that whenever there is a large land mass at one of the Earth's poles, either the north pole or south pole, there are ice ages. •Undersea ridge activity: "Sea floor spreading" (associated with continental drift) causing variations in ocean displacement.

Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit
ess rec P ion h of t ee

no qui

xes

Variations in solar output

Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s axis of rotation relative to the orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds, ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust) Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane) Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

(July 1)

Milankovitch model predictions, from Quinn et al. (1991). Glacial/interglacials from Lisiecki and Raymo (2005). Image by R.A. Rohde.

Temperature (˚C) Relative to Present

Last Major Glaciation
(~100,000 yrs)

Holocene Temperature Maximum
Medieval Warm Period
~800-1300 AD

Little Ice Age
~1650-1850 AD

Thousands of years BP)
Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org UCS NECIA release—June 2007

1. IPCC SRES emissions scenarios
HIGHER A1FI End-ofcentury emissions range from 1x to 5x 1990 levels LOWER B1

Natural Forcing

Natural (solar + volcanic) forcing alone does not account for warming in the past 50 years.

Human influences
Anthropogenic Forcing Only

alone (greenhouse gases & aerosols) brings models & observations into good agreement over last 30 yrs.

Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing

U.K. Met Office HadCM3 model (2001)

Temperature

High Emission

HadCM3 Projected Change in Annual Temperature for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

AOGCM output

Statistical Downscaling & Regional-Scale Models

Northeastern Temperatures
(annual averages--GFDL, HADCM3 and PCM)

temperature change ( F)

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 1900 1950 2000 2050

observations higher emissions lower emissions

o

Higher: 6.5-12.5oF

Lower: 3.5-6.5oF

2oF warming since 1970

2100

Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Summer heat index
How hot will summers “feel” in

New Hampshire

Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

Average area with >trace of snow for ≥30 d/winter

(high emissions scenario)

Goes from 10-45 d/winter to 5-10 d/winter

Source: NECIA / UCS (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)

PCM:

Red “X” = No Data; Green = Data

SS:

(gray polygons) = BIO db

Synoptic Estimate of Surface Salinity
OA “synoptic” climatology Add Maine Coastal Current

Nesting HOPS in a Coarse-Resolution Climate PCM A.R. Robinson, P.J. Haley, Jr., W.G. Leslie

Dynamically adjusted fields for September 2000

OA slope water climatology

Resulting synoptic estimate

Report, May 2007