You are on page 1of 19

California Housing Market

Update

Monthly Sales and Price Statistics


September 2018
Sales Had the Largest Decline since March 2014
California, September 2018 Sales: 382,550 Units, -3.3% YTD, -12.4% YTY
700,000

600,000
Sep-17: Sep-18:
427,460 382,550
500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
California Home Sales Continued on a
Declining Trend
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

-25%
Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized
Bay Area Sales Down the Most in Nearly 8 Yrs.
Bay Area 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Bay Area)
30%

20%

10%
YoY % chg.

0%

-10%

-20% -16.4%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Southern California Home Sales Had the
Biggest Fall in All Regions
YoY % chg. So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20% -17.3%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Central Valley Sales Declined by Double-Digit
for the First Time since Early 2014
YoY % chg. Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® *Sales are not seasonally adjusted and annualized
Sales Declined in Every Segment
September 2018 (Year-to-Year)
0%

-5% -3.9%
-10%
-11.5% -11.7%
-15%

-20% -16.9% -16.8% -16.2%

-21.1%
-25%

-30%

-35% -33.2%

SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Median Price Continued to Grow but Had
the Smallest Increase since Dec 2012
California, September 2018: $578,850, -2.9% MTM, +4.2% YTY
Sept-18:
P:May-07
$700,000 $578,850
$594,530 Sept-17:
$555,400
$600,000

$500,000
T: Feb-09
$245,230
$400,000 -59% from
peak
$300,000

$200,000

$100,000

$-

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price Growth Continued to Moderate
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
40%
30%
20%
YTY% Chg. in Price

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Condo/Townhome Median Price Inched Up
from August
$600,000 Condo

$500,000

$400,000
Median Price

Sept-18:
Sept-17:
$477,140
$300,000 $450,400

$200,000

$100,000

$0 Mar-09

Mar-14
Jan-05

Jan-10

Jan-15
Jun-05

Dec-07

Dec-12

Dec-17
Sep-06

Jun-10

Sep-11

Jun-15

Sep-16
Nov-05

Jul-07

May-08
Oct-08

Nov-10

Jul-12

Aug-14
May-13
Oct-13

Nov-15

Jul-17

May-18
Apr-06

Aug-09

Apr-11

Apr-16
Feb-07

Feb-12

Feb-17
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condos/Townhomes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA Median Price (Existing SFH)
Month-to-Month % Chg
15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price Per Square Increased from Last Year,
but Dipped Slightly from August
September 2018: $282, Down 0.4% MTM, Up 4.4% YTY
$400
Sept-18:
$350
Sept-17: $282
$270
$300
PRICE PER SQ. FT.

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales Price -to-List Price Hit the Lowest
Level in 20 Months
September 2018: 98.5%, -0.5% MTM, -0.6% YTY
Sept-17:
Sept-18:
99.1%
98.5%
100%

98%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio

96%

94%

92%

90%

SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Time on Market Bounced Back
California, September 2018: 23.0 Days
80

70

60
DAYS ON MARKET

50

40

30

20

10

SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory Index Reached the Highest Level in
31 Months
September 2017: 3.2 Months; September 2018: 4.2 Months
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active Listings Continued to Increase for the
6th Consecutive Month
Year-over-Year % Chg
25%
20.4%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Housing Supply Improved across the Board,
Except for the Sub-$200k Price Segment
Sept 2018
Active Listing
40%
33.6%
30% 26.4%
23.9%
21.6% 20.4%
20%
11.2%
10% 7.1%

0%

-10%
-12.7%
-20%

SERIES: Active Listings of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Inventory Improved as Sales Continued to Fall

9.0 Bay Area So CA Central Valley

8.0

7.0

6.0

5.0
4.5
4.0 3.8
3.0 3.2

2.0

1.0

0.0

Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined
as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.

SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Active Listings Increased in All Regions
Sept 2018

Sales Active Listings


50% 44%
40%

30%
Year-to-Year % Chg

23%
20%
13%
10% 4%
0%

-10%

-20% -16% -14% -15%


-18%
-30%
San Francisco Bay Southern California Central Valley Central Coast
Area

SERIES: Sales and Listings of Existing Single Family Homes


SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®