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Part 1: Introduction
失誤樹分析沿革
(1)在1961~1962年間,由Bell Telephone Lab.的H. A. Watson開
始發展。為空軍義勇兵飛彈的控制系統的一項研究計畫。
(2)第一篇發表之論文:1963年在由U. Of Washington與波音公
司聯合主辦之safety Symposium上發表。
(3)於70年代初期開始被廣泛地應用。
(4)於1972年“Reactor Safety Study”,WASH-1400計畫中,首
次為核工界所應用。
(5)亦被用於分析大型化工廠之安全分析及液化天然氣(LNG)工
廠之安全分析。
(6)大部分之PRA計畫均採用Fault Tree Analysis (與Event Tree
Analysis配合使用)。
General Description
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a deductive reasoning technique
that focuses on one particular accident event.
• The fault tree itself is a graphic model that displays the various
combinations of equipment faults and failures that can result in
the accident event.
• The solution of the fault tree is a list of the sets of equipment
failures and human/operator errors that are sufficient to result
in the accident event of interest.
• The strength of FTA as a qualitative tool is its ability to break
down an accident into basic equipment failures and human
errors. This allows the safety analyst to focus preventive
measures on these basic causes to reduce the probability of an
accident.
Purpose: Identify combinations of equipment failures
and human errors that can result in an accident event.
When to Use:
FRC
FLOW
CONTROL
VALVE
MATERIAL
B
MATERIAL
A
圖1 批式反應系統
REACTOR EXPLOSION
3.6 10-4 F/YR
RUNAWAY BURSTING
REACTION DISC FAILS
0.02
Probability
1.8 10-2 F/YR of failure
on demand
m
Out of
m n gate Output event occurs if m out of n input events
6 (voting or occur.
n inputs
sample gate)
Circle
2 Undeveloped event
Diamond
Rectangle
House
6 Transfer symbol
Triangles
when the exact failure mode for a primary or secondary failure is identified, and
failure data are obtained, primary and secondary failure events are the same as
basic failures and are shown as circles in a fault tree.
[ EXAMPLE ]
1) Primary
• Tank rupture due to metal fatigue
2) Secondary
• Fuse is opened by excessive current
A
EOR
Exclusive OR: B or C
B C
but not both cause the
the output A.
Boolean Algebra
A A A
EOR = OR =
B B B
Boolean Algebra
A
A
AND AND
=
B C D
B AND
C D
Boolean Algebra
A
A
OR OR
=
B C D
B OR
C D
Boolean Algebra
A
A
EOR “EOR”
=
B C D
B EOR
ODD COMBINATIONS
C D
Boolean Algebra
A
A
AND OR
=
B OR AND AND
B C B D
C D
Boolean Algebra
A
A
OR OR
=
B
B L
(very low
probability)
Boolean Algebra
A (very low
A probability)
AND AND
=
B L C L
(very low
(very low probability)
probability)
Boolean Algebra
A
A
OR OR
=
B
B AND
C L
(very low
probability)
Boolean Algebra
A
A
AND
=
B
B H
(very high
probability)
Boolean Algebra
A (very high
A probability)
OR OR
=
B H C H
(very high
(very high probability)
probability)
Boolean Algebra
A
A
AND
=
B
B OR
C H
(very high
probability)