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THE ANALYSIS OF

RUSSIA’S DEFENSE
POLICY ON RUSSIA’S
ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA
(2014-2015)
Anak Agung Gede Basawantara (016201600085)
Bagas Daryl Syahputra (016201600079)
Calvin Kurniawan Tan (016201600023)
Mohammad Rian Alfarhan (016201600111)
INTRODUCTION: RUSSIA’S
PROFILE AND POLITICAL
FEATURE
FEDERATION OF RUSSIA

 Capital: Moscow
Population: 143,8 million (2014)
Form of State: Federal Semi-Presidential Republic
National Ideology: Conservatism
Ruling Political Party: United Russia (Led by
Vladimir Putin)
RESEARCH QUESTION
RESEARCH QUESTION
1. How does Russia’s defense policy on
Annexation of Crimea analyzed using
Todor Tagarov’s Six Steps of Defense
Policy and Laura C. Cleary’s Five
Peacetime Defense Questions?
THEORETICAL
FRAMEWORK
DEFENSE POLICY: DEFINITION
Defense policy is “a course of action or
conduct, as defined by senior executive
leadership, intended to influence and
determine decisions, actions, and other
matters relating to the conduct of military
affairs, consistent with the [nation’s]
security strategy”
– Todor Tagarev, 2006, The Art of Shaping Defense Policy: Scope,
Components, Relationships
TAGAROV’S SIX STEPS OF
DEFENSE POLICY
“...flows from the desire to uphold and promote
the values and the interests of a nation or an
alliance, the underlying security strategy and the
role of the military among the instruments of
national power, all of which influence the
definition of defense objectives. Defense
objectives, in turn, are often expressed as
defense missions, i.e. possible roles of the armed
forces, and levels of ambition in defense”
– Tagarev, 2006, The Art of Shaping Defense Policy: Scope, Components,
Relationships
LAURA R. CLEARY’S FIVE
PEACETIME DEFENSE QUESTIONS

– Laura R. Cleary, 2006, Managing Defence in Democracy


Threat
Assessment

Values and
Strategic Defense
National
Environment Objectives
Interests

How important is Defense Choices


security for the state? & Consequences

Armed Forces Defense


Defense
(Air Force, Policy and
Mission
Army, Navy) Strategy

Military and Non- Allocation of


military approach Defense Budget
CASE STUDY: RUSSIA’S
ANNEXATION OF CRIMEA
(2014)
• Russia’s annexation of Crimea represents the biggest geopolitical shock
to the European security system since the end of the Cold War.
• Russia claims invasion of Crimea according to agreement with Ukraine.
• Russia claims all actions in Crimea are in the framework of an
WHAT
agreement with Ukraine regarding the base of the Black Sea Fleet.
• In 2014 when in Vladimir Putin presidency and the Crimean leader
signed an agreement and showed Crimean part of the Russian
Federation.

 Since the break-up of the USSR, political tensions between the two
WHY neighbouring states: Ukraine and Russia have continued on many
issues.
 These related to the status of Crimea, where the division of the Soviet
Black Sea Fleet also stationed.
 Russian contingency plans for annexation of Crimea have likely been
prepared and regularly updated since two decades ago.
WHY
 Russia also asserted that the crimea people showed extraordinary desire
to become part of the Russian federation.
 In 2016, NATO and US wants Russia give back Crimea to Ukraine

 According to history, Russia ever once trying annex crimea in the 1783.
 The newest conflict in and over Crimea has developed since 1991 along
the porous ethnic, linguistic and cultural line within a young successor
WHEN
state of the Soviet Union, other than the Russian Federation.
 In 2014, Russia officially claimed Crimea from Ukraine.
 Russia.
 Ukraine.
WHO
 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – US indirectly involved.

 Russia used unjustified forcible and non-forcible measures to breach the


territorial integrity of Ukraine, a sovereign state whose legal status and
HOW borders had been recognized by Russia on several occasions.
 Russia has violated numerous obligations set upon it by multilateral
agreements and bilateral treaties with Ukraine.
ANALYSIS
RUSSIA’S NATIONAL
VALUES, NATIONAL
INTERESTS, AND
IMPORTANCE OF
SECURITY
Strengthening the country's defense;
Strengthening national accord;
Raising living standards;
Preserving and developing culture and
traditional Russian spiritual and moral values;
Increasing the competitiveness of the
national economy;
Russian Federation as World Power in
Multipolarity systemic world.
RUSSIA’S THREAT
ASSESSMENT
Operational
Environment:
Black Sea
East Europe
Psychological Environment
NATO threat
Cultural sense
“Incidentally, the total population of the Crimean Peninsula
today is 2.2 million people, of whom almost 1.5 million are
Russians, 350,000 are Ukrainians who predominantly consider
Russian their native language, and about 290,000–300,000 are
Crimean Tatars, who, as the referendum has shown, also lean
towards Russia.”
“In people’s hearts and minds, Crimea has always been
an inseparable part of Russia.”
“Those who opposed the coup were immediately threatened with
repression. Naturally, the first in line here was Crimea, the
Russian-speaking Crimea. In view of this, the residents of Crimea
and Sevastopol turned to Russia for help in defending their rights
and lives, in preventing the events that were unfolding and are
still underway in Kiev, Donetsk, Kharkov and other Ukrainian
cities.
Naturally, we could not leave this plea unheeded; we could not
abandon Crimea and its residents in distress. This would have
been betrayal on our part.”
DEFENSE OBJECTIVES
BASED ON RUSSIA’S 2015
NATIONAL SECURITY
STRATEGY
General Objectives:
The strategic national defense goals are to create conditions for
the peaceful and dynamic socioeconomic development of the
Russian Federation, and to ensure its military security.

Spesific Objectives in Crimean Peninsula:


To secure the Russian and its border from the threat that NATO
possessed.
“The buildup of the military potential of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) and the endowment of it with global
functions pursued in violation of the norms of international law,
the galvanization of the bloc countries' military activity, the
further expansion of the alliance, and the location of its military
infrastructure closer to Russian borders are creating a threat to
national security.”
Spesific Objectives in Ukraine Crimean Peninsula:
To secure Ukraine (especially Crimea) from any “Western”
Influence

“The West's stance aimed at countering integration processes


and creating seats of tension in the Eurasian region is exerting
a negative influence on the realization of Russian national
interests. The support of the United States and the European
Union for the anti-constitutional coup d'etat in Ukraine led to
a deep split in Ukrainian society and the emergence of an
armed conflict. The strengthening of far right nationalist
ideology, the deliberate shaping in the Ukrainian population of
an image of Russia as an enemy, the undisguised gamble on
the forcible resolution of intrastate contradictions, and the
deep socioeconomic crisis are turning Ukraine into a chronic
seat of instability in Europe and in the immediate vicinity of
Russia's borders.”
DEFENSE STRATEGIES
Full utilization of Maskirovka:
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet: Maintenance of plausible
Maintaining military deniability, concealment Russian military
dominance against of forces, disinformation, conducted military
perceived U.S. and NATO and decoy or dummy exercise in the Russian-
threats in the Black Sea; structures to confuse Ukraine border.
Received 112.4 billion opponents’ ability to
euros of the Russian predict and respond to
defense budget. actions.
DEFENSE MISSIONS AND
ARMED FORCES:
MILITARY APPROACH
Deployment of Black Sea February 28, a group of
Fleet: Consists of 45 50–119 armed men in
warships and 7 military uniform without
submarines stationed signs of identification 40,000 Russian military
principally out of (designated later as conducted military
Sevastopol, located on “Little Green Men") exercise in the Russian-
the west side of the seized control over Ukraine border.
Crimea; to acquire Simferopol and
strategic port of Sevastovol International
Sevastopol. Airport.

In March 2014, In March 2014, the


“Little Green Men” Russian military
seized public seized Crimean
institutions borders and
(hospitals, schools, Ukranian military
roads, etc.) bases in Crimea.
DEFENSE MISSIONS AND
ARMED FORCES: NON-
MILITARY APPROACH
Information Campaign:
Provocation: Mobilized
(1) Russians took over
Russian ethnic Information Campaign:
Crimea’s local TV, the
minorities abroad by (3) Emphasize how
Black Sea TV and sent it
appealing to feelings of aggressive NATO and the
off air – along with
marginalization, a sense West were and how these
several radio stations
of self-worth and powers violated
and TV channels; (2)
belonging, and a agreements on NATO
Comparison of the
perception that Mother expansion restrictions
Ukrainian government
Russia has more to offer into Eastern Europe.
and their Western allies
than the native country.
to Nazis, gays, and Jews.

Invoke change in
military-political
Gained sympathies from Humanitarian aid Trojan
leadership: Diplomacy
Pro-Russian Crimea Horse: Painted military
with Crimean de facto
civilians; Most of the trucks as a deception to
Prime Minister, Sergey
Pro-Russians became smuggle weapons to
Aksyonov regarding
Russia military’s Crimea and distract
Crimea’s military
militant. media.
personnel – choice to
obey or to resign.
Cyber attacks by the On 16 March, Crimea
Russia awards a held the referendum for
Russian government medal to former independence earlier
and Cyber Berkut to Ukrainians who than planned and 96.77
Ukraine and EU’s assisted in the
percent voted for a
website; aim to reunification Russia; The
annexation of Treaty on Accession of
isolate their Crimea. the Republic of Crimea to
leadership. Russia is signed
CONCLUSION
Russia’s annexation crimea is influenced by its threat perception
towards NATO and the US, as Russia has a long history of rivalry
with the US and perceived NATO’s expansion as a major threat to
its strategic environment.

Russia’s threat perception then influenced its defense objective,


in which it is to protect its strategic environment from the
influence of NATO – although Russia’s annexation of Crimea was
based on the idea of the same societal background of Crimea’s
citizens with Russian culture.

Russia would then adjust its defense strategies based on its


objectives and conduct its defense missions – along with its
armed forces – through military and non-military approach in
order to annex Crimea.
THANK YOU