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ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map

Peter J. Vickery
Applied Research Associates, Inc.
8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600
Raleigh, NC, 27615

1
Summary
 New Hurricane Simulation Model
 Windfield

 Filling (weakening after landfall)

 Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship)

 Tracks and pressures (Landfall location and intensity)

 Results in Lower Design Wind Speeds


 Moving to strength wind speed map (wind load factor = 1 for
strength design, 0.63 for ASD)
 Strength map corresponds to 700 year RP
 ASCE 7-05 Equivalent Map = V700/√1.6

 Cat III and IV structures use 1700 year RP winds


 Cat I structures use 300 year RP winds

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 2


V700/√1.6
90(40)

100(45)
85(38)
110(49)

90(40)

90(40) 110(49)
120(54)

120(54)
110(49)
100(45)
110(49)
90(40)
120(54)

130(58) 130(58)

90(40) 140(63)
90(40)
100(45) 120(54)
110(49)

100(45)

110(49)
Location Vmph (m/s) 110(49)
120(54) Hawaii 102 (45) 120(54)
130(58) Guam 155 (69) 130(58)
Virgin Islands 132 (59) 140(63)
American Samoa 125 (56)
130(58)
Puerto Rico

Notes:
1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground for Exposure C category.
2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted. Expanding the Realm of Possibility 3
3. Islands and coastal areas outside the last contour shall use the last wind speed contour of the coastal area.
V700/√1.6
ASCE 7-05 ASCE 7-10 Equivalent

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 4


700 Year Return Period Winds
114(51)

120(54)
130(58)
108(48)
140(63)

114(51)

114(51) 140(63)

150(67)

150(67)
140(63) 130(58) 140(63)
120(54) 150(67)
110(49) 160(72)
160(72) 170(76)
170(76)

114(51) 180(80)
150(67)
120(54)
130(58)140(63) 180(80)
110(49)

120(54)
130(58)
Location Vmph (m/s)
140(63) Hawaii 129 (58) 150(67) 160(72)
150(67) Guam 196 (88) 170(76)
158(71) Virgin Islands 167 (75)
American Samoa 158 (71)
158(71) Puerto Rico

Notes:
1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground forExpanding the Realm of Possibility
Exposure C category. 5
2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted.
700 Year Return Period Winds

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 6


1700 Year Return Period Winds
122(55)

130(58)
140(63)
115(52) 150(67)

160(72)
122(55)

150(67)
122(55)

160(72)

160(72)
150(67)
140(63) 130(58)
120(54)
150(67)
116(52) 160(72)
170(76)
170(76) 180(80)
180(80)
190(85)
116(52) 122(55)
160(72) 200(89)
120(54) 130(58)
150(67)
140(63) 200(89)
130(58)

140(63) Location Vmph (m/s)


150(67) Hawaii 143 (64) 160(72) 170(76)
167(75) Guam 211 (94)
Virgin Islands 176 (79) 180(80)
American Samoa 169 (76)
167(75) Puerto Rico

Notes:
1. Values are nominal design 3-second gust wind speeds in miles per hour (m/s) at 33 ft (10m) above ground for Exposure C category.
2. Linear interpolation between contours is permitted. Expanding the Realm of Possibility 7
3. Islands and coastal areas outside the last contour shall use the last wind speed contour of the coastal area.
! !
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Simulation Methodology !
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987

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987

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and Lon . direction 990
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Storm Fillin g ! 984 Ste field m thin 25 V t, r}
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Central pressure filling (Vickery
, 2005)
! 82 Win orm w RMW ,
2 B filling 9 if t {P c, B,
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99 99 998 997
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98 98 987 981 982 73 69
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970

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960

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948

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974
949

946

06
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10
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998
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10
!

993
! !

991
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983
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986

987
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987
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p 1: torm We
Ste alize S nd RM
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Initi ple B
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Step 2: s
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Sam value o
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Compu P c, B, RMW nd Wadhera (2
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B, RMW

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 8


Additional Data in New Model

2000 Current
Parameter Model Model Increase
Number of full scale wind speed traces (with maximum wind 63 245 390%
recorded) used to validate windfield model
Number of dropsonde profiles used to verify marine 0 650
boundary layer model
Number of hurricanes used to develop Holland B model 17 35 100%
Number of landfall hurricanes 167 189 13%
Number of landfall intense hurricanes (defined by pressure) 70 84 20%
Number of hurricanes used to develop filling model 38 57 68%
Number of years of landfall data used to develop model 96 107 11%

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 9


Landfall Pressures
TX LA
990 990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970
950 950

(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
930 930 930
910 910 910
890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

SW FL SE FL
990 990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970
950 950

(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
930 930 930
910 910 910
890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

NC VA, MD and NJ
990 990 990
sure
ure

ure
970 970 Expanding the Realm of Possibility
970 10
Landfall Pressures
990
TX
990
LA
990
MS and AL
990
NW FL

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950

(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

SW FL SE FL NE FL GA and SC
990 990 990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

NC VA, MD and NJ NY/NE Gulf Coast


990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Florida Coast Atlantic Coast US Coast


990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

970 970 970


950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)

930 930 930


910 910 910
890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 11


Coastal Segments

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 12


970 970

Central Press
Central Press

Central Press

Central Press
950 950

(mb)
950

(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910

Landfall Pressures
890
1 10 100
Return Period (years)

Region 5
1000
890
1 10 100
Return Period (years)

Region 6
1000
890
1 10 100
Return Period (years)

Region 7
1000
890
1 10 100
Return Period (years)

Region 8
1000

990 990 990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950

(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Region 9 Region 10 Region 11 Region 12


990 990 990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 (mb) 950 950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Region 13 Region 14 Region 15 Region 16


990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Region 17 Region 18 Region 19 Region 20


990 990 990 990
Central Pressure

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)

950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Region 21 Region 22 Region 23 Region 24


990 990 990 Expanding
990 the Realm of Possibility 13
ure
re

re

970 970 970 re 970


Regions 1 and 2 Regions 2 and 3 Regions 3 and 4 Regions 4 and 5
990 990 990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970

Landfall Pressures
950 950

(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Regions 5 and 6 Regions 6 and 7 Regions 7 and 8 Regions 8 and 9


990 990 990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950

(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Regions 9 and 10 Regions 10 and 11 Regions 11 and 12 Regions 12 and 13


990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Regions 13 and 14 Regions 14 and 15 Regions 15 and 16 Regions 16 and 17


990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)

950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Regions 17 and 18 Regions 18 and 19 Regions 19 and 20 Regions 20 and 21


990 990 990 990
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 14
sure
sure

sure

ure
970 970 970 970
910 910

Ce
Ce
890 890

Landfall1 Pressure
10 100
Return Period (years)
1000

Florida Coast
990 990

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

970 970
950

(mb)
950
(mb)

930 930
910 910
890 890
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 15


2008 Model vs. 2000 Model
50 Year Return Period
Marine Gust Wind Speed 70
60
50
(m/sec)

40
30
20
Current Model
10
Vickery, et al (2000)
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
MilePost

100 Year Return Period


70
Marine Gust Wind Speed

60
50
(m/sec)

40
30
20
Current Model
10
Vickery, et al (2000)
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
MilePost

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 16


Simulated vs. Historical
Maximum Wind Speeds
100

Betsy (LA)
Peak Gust Wind Speed (m/sec)

Carman

Carla
Audrey
80

Labor Day
Camille
Andrew
Hazel
60

1926 - Miami
Charley
Donna
40 Modeled
Simulated
Powell & Reinhold (2007)
Powell (2007)
Powell & Aberson (2001)
20 Dunion et al, (2003)
HWind
FIU FCHLPM
Houston & Powell (2003)
Goldman & Ushijima (1974)
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 17


Simulated vs. Historical
Maximum Wind Speeds Texas Louisiana
100 100
Peak Gust Wind Speed

Audrey
Katrina
Peak Gust Wind Speed
80 80

1900

Rita

Camille
60 60
(m/sec)

(m/sec)

Betsy
Carla
Audrey
1932
Celia

Carmen
Andrew
40 40

20 20

0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

MS/AL Florida
100 100

Donna
Frederic
Peak Gust Wind Speed

80 80
1926

Wind Speed (mph)

Labor Day
Andrew
60 60
(m/sec)

Camille

1926
Charley
Katrina

40 40
Elena

20 20

0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

GA/SC North Carolina


100 100
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 18

zel
ed

ie

d
Wind Speed (
60 60

(m/sec)

Labor D
Camille
Peak Gust Win

1926

Andre
Charley
Katrina
40 40

Elena
Simulated vs. Historical
20

0
20

Maximum Wind Speeds 1 10 100


Return Period (years)

GA/SC
1000 1 10 100
Return Period (years)

North Carolina
1000

100 100

Hazel
Peak Gust Wind Speed

Gracie

Peak Gust Wind Speed


80 80

Donna
Hazel

1944
Fran
Floyd
1911
60 60
(m/sec)

(m/sec)
Hugo

Helene
Diana
40 Able 40

Isabel
20 20

0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

VA/MD/DE/NJ NY/CT/RI
100 100
Peak Gust Wind Speed

Peak Gust Wind Speed


80 80

1944

1938
Hazel
Ione
Isabel

Carol
60
(m/sec)

(m/sec) 60

Donna
40 40

Gloria
Donna
Floyd

20 20

0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

MA ME/NH
100 100 Expanding the Realm of Possibility 19
Sim ulated - w /o w indfield m odel uncertainties
Simulated vs. Historical
Maximum Wind Speeds Region-FL1 (Escambia to Gulf) Region-FL2 (Franklin to Levy) Region-FL3 (Citrus to Manatee)
100 100 100

Peak Gust Wind Speed


Peak Gust Wind Speed
Peak Gust Wind Speed

Eloise
80 80 80

Easy
(m/sec)
(m/sec)
(m/sec)

60 60 60

Charley
1926

40 40 40

Easy
Kate
20 20 20

0 0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years)

Region-FL4 (Sarasota to Collier) Region-FL5 (Monroe) Region-FL6 (Miami-Dade to Palm Beach)


100 100 100
Peak Gust Wind Speed

Peak Gust Wind Speed


Peak Gust Wind Speed

80 80 80
(m/sec)

1935 Labor Day


(m/sec)

(m/sec)
60

Andrew
60 60
Donna

1926
Charley

Andrew
40 40 40

20 20 20

0 0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years)

Region-FL7 (Martin to Brevard) Region-FL8 (Seminole to Nassau)


100 100
Peak Gust Wind Speed

Peak Gust Wind Speed

80 80
(m/sec)

(m/sec)

60 60
1928
1949

40
Dora

40
David

20 20

0 0
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (Years) Return Period (Years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 20


Landfall Pressures vs. RP
990
TX
990
LA
990
MS and AL
990
NW FL

Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950

(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

SW FL SE FL NE FL GA and SC
990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)
950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

NC VA, MD and NJ NY/NE Gulf Coast


990 990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

Central Pressure
970 970 970 970
950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)
950

(mb)
930 930 930 930
910 910 910 910
890 890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Florida Coast Atlantic Coast US Coast


990 990 990
Central Pressure
Central Pressure

Central Pressure

970 970 970


950 950
(mb)

950
(mb)

(mb)

930 930 930


910 910 910
890 890 890
1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years) Return Period (years) Return Period (years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 21


Landfall Intensity (by
Pressure)
Intense Hurricane Landfall Rate by Region Annual Rate of Landfall of US Intense Hurricanes
0.25 1
Observed Observed
Mean Number of Landfalling IH/Year

Mean - Vickery, et al (2008a) Mean - Vickery et al. (2008a)


Mean - Vickery, et al (2000a) 0.9

Mean Number of Landfalling IH/Year


0.2 Mean - Vickery et al. (2000b)
0.8

0.15 0.7

0.6
0.1 0.5

0.4
0.05
0.3

0 0.2

0.1

0
All IH Storms Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
Storms Storms Storms

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 22


QUESTION:
If the new model produces
more intense hurricanes
(defined by pressure) than
the old model, why have the
design wind speeds gone
down?

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 23


ANSWER:
Because of the New Model
for the Holland B Parameter

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 24


What is B?

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 25


What is B?
60
Gradient Balance Wind Speed

B= 0.75
50 B= 1
B= 1.3
40 B= 1.5
(ms )
-1

30

20

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

1020
1010
1000
Pressure e (hPa)

990
980
B= 0.75
970 B= 1
960 B= 1.3
B= 1.5
950
940
930
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 26


What is B?
60
Gradient Balance Wind Speed

B
B= 0.75
 RMW 
50 B= 1 p (r )  p c  p  exp  
B= 1.3  r 
40 B= 1.5
(ms )

1/ 2
-1

30  RMW B 
 RMW B Bp exp[ ( r ) ] r 2 f 2 
fr
20 VG  ( )   
 r  4  2
10  
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Bp
VG max 
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW) e

1020
1010
1000
Pressure e (hPa)

990
980
B= 0.75
970 B= 1
960 B= 1.3
B= 1.5
950
940
930
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Distance from Storm Center (r/RMW)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 27


Statistical Model for Holland
B Parameter

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 28


Holland B Pressure Fits
Andrew -1992/08/23-0542,B=1.6,p=75mb,RMW=11km Andrew -1992/08/23-0550,B=1.7,p=79mb,RMW=13km
1020 1020

1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)
980 980

960 960

940 940

150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150


Radius(km ) Radius(km )
Luis-1995/09/04-1700,B=1.4,p=71mb,RMW=42km Luis-1995/09/04-1704,B=1.5,p=71mb,RMW=38.5km
1020 1020

1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)
980 980

960 960

940 940

150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150


Radius(km ) Radius(km )
Floyd-1999/09/15-0518,B=1.15,p=80mb,RMW=66km Floyd-1999/09/15-0525,B=1.1,p=81mb,RMW=65km
1020 1020

1000 1000
Pressure(hPa)

Pressure(hPa)

980 980

960 960

940 940

150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150


Radius(km ) Radius(km )

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 29


B Parameter
Hurricane Allen (p=106 mb, RMW=15 km, B=1.45) Hurricane Allen (p=106 mb, RMW=15 km, B=1.45)
1020 80
1000

Wind Speed (ms-1 )


60
Pressure (mb)

980
960 40
940
Data 20
920 Data
Fit Fit
900 0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Radius (km) Radius (km)
Hurricane Andrew (p=88 mb, RMW=13 km, B=1.40) Hurricane Andrew (p=88 mb, RMW=13 km, B=1.40)
1020 80
1000

Wind Speed (ms-1 )


60
Pressure (mb)

980
960 40
940
20
920 Data Data
Fit Fit
900 0
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Radius (km) Radius (km)
Hurricane Bertha (p=44 mb, RMW=43 km, B=1.45) Hurricane Bertha (p=44 mb, RMW=43 km, B=1.45)
1020 80
Expanding the Realm of Possibility 30
1000
-1 )
Statistical Model for B
2.00

1.75
Holland B Parameter

1.50

1.25

1.00

0.75

0.50 B from Equation 2


B from Vickery, et al. (2000)
Data
0.25 1992 Andrew
1999 Floyd
1998 Georges
0.00
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

SQRT(A) RMW  f
A
 p 
2 Rd Ts  ln 1  
 p c  e 

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 31


Holland B from Wind Field
Analyses
Atlantic Coast and Florida Peninsula Hurricanes
2.5
y = -0.8408x + 1.5773
R² = 0.2658
2.0

1.5
B

1.0

B from Equation 5
0.5 B from Equation 6
B Estimated from Wind Modeling
Linear (B Estimated from Wind Modeling)
0.0
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
SQRT(A)

Gulf Coast Hurricanes


2.5
y = -0.7532x + 1.2907
R² = 0.0757
2.0

Elena Frederic
1.5
B

Ike
1.0

0.5 B from Equation 5


B from Equation 6
B Estimated from Wind Modeling
Linear (B Estimated from Wind Modeling)
0.0
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
SQRT(A)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 32


Mean B at Land Fall (old vs.
new models " 1.15,0.62

"
1.19,0.76

" 1.22,0.83

" 1.20,0.81

" 1.22,0.91

" 1.23,0.97
2.02,1.22
" 1.23,1.01
"

" 1.24,1.03

" 1.25,1.05

1.29,1.14 1.24,1.08 " 1.24,1.07


" " " "
1.28,1.14 1.27,1.12 1.27,1.11 2.08,1.38
" " 1.30,1.16 "
" " "
1.29,1.17 1.30,1.18 1.27,1.12 1.29,1.17
" " 2.11,1.40
"
1.29,1.17 1.27,1.15 "
1.30,1.20
" 1.30,1.19 "
1.28,1.17 "
" " 2.06,1.38
1.30,1.22

2.09,1.55
Expanding the
"
Realm of Possibility 33
Effect of B on Predicted
Wind Speeds
Wilmington, NC
200
B from Vickery, et al. (2000)
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

B from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)


150

100

50

0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)
Miami, FL Expanding the Realm of Possibility 34
50

Peak
Effect
0 of B on Predicted
1 10 100 1000
Wind SpeedsReturn Period (years)
Miami, FL
200
Peak Gust Wind Speed (mph)

150

100

50
B from Vickery, et al. (2000)
B from Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
0
1 10 100 1000
Return Period (years)

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 35


Summary
 New model produces more landfall intense hurricanes
by pressure than the model used to develop ASCE 7,
yet results in lower wind speeds.
 Additional flight level data and improved statistical
model for B resulted in lower ~10% estimates of the
Holland B parameter.
 In some areas (e.g. Florida Panhandle) the new model
produces fewer land falling strong hurricanes, and
hence wind speeds are lower than associated with the
reduction of B alone.

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 36


Windborne Debris Region
 Current Standard
 V > 120 or 110 within one mile of coast

 Exact Mapping (new 700 year map)


 120√1.6=152~150

 110 √1.6=139~140

 New WBDR is intended to mimic current standard,


pending new research
 V > 150 or 140 within one mile of coast

 Results in less area within WBD Region that the


existing standard

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 37


Wind Borne Debris Region

Expanding the Realm of Possibility 38