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Conditional

Probability
Unit: Probability
Grade level: 11-12
Teacher: Mrs. Nguyen

The lesson content in this presentation is adapted from the textbook


Algebra 2: Common Core. Please see the references below.

Charles, R. I., Hall, B., Kennedy, D., Bellman, A. E., Bragg, S. C., Handlin, W. G., . . . Wiggins, G.
(2012). Probability of multiple events. In Algebra 2: common core (pp. 688-693).
Boston, MA: Pearson.
Charles, R. I., Hall, B., Kennedy, D., Bellman, A. E., Bragg, S. C., Handlin, W. G., . . . Wiggins, G.
(2012). Conditional probability. In Algebra 2: common core (pp. 696-702). Boston,
MA: Pearson.
Content Standard(s) Learning Objective(s)

• S.CP.6 Find the conditional probability of • Students will find the conditional
A given B as the fraction of B’s outcomes probability of event A given B.
that also belong to A, and interpret the
• Students will be able to define the
answer in terms of the model.
following key term: conditional
probability.
• Students will be able to draw tree
diagrams to solve conditional probability
problems.
Assessment Activity: KWL Chart

• Visit this Padlet link to get started on the KWL Chart:


https://padlet.com/jnguyen012/gv287zmwjxtq
• Fill in the 1st column titled WHAT WE KNOW.
• Anything from previous material that you think we need in order to learn about conditional probability.
• Fill in the 2nd column title WANT TO KNOW.
• Write down anything that you are curious about conditional probability or what you want to know.
• Do not fill in the other columns yet. We will do this at the end of lecture!
Review
• Independent event – when the
outcome of one event does not
affect the outcome of the KEY CONCEPT:
second event Probability of A and B
• Dependent event – when the • If A and B are independent
outcome of one event does events, then P(A and B) =
affect the outcome of the P(A)P(B).
second event

Questions:
1. What does “with replacement” mean?
2. What does “without replacement” mean?
Review – cont. Try these!
Question: Are each of these events dependent or independent?

1. Tossing a coin and getting tails. 1. Independent

2. Pulling a marble out of a bag 2. Independent


with replacement.

3. Drawing a card from a deck 3. Dependent


without replacement.

4. Eating 1 slice of pizza at a time 4. Dependent


from an 8-slice pizza box.
Review – cont.
• Mutually exclusive events – when P(A) P(B)
two events cannot happen at the
same time

KEY CONCEPT:
Probability of A or B
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
• If A and B are mutually exclusive
A B
events, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

Question: According to the Venn diagram, are A and P(A and B)


B mutually exclusive? Why or why not?
Venn diagram created by SmartArt
Conditional Probability

• The probability of an event A KEY CONCEPT:


given that event B has already Conditional Probability
occurred. “given”
• For any two events A and B with
• Notation: P(A|B) 𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0, then
“favorable outcome” “condition” 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = .
𝑃(𝐵)
• It follows from the formula
above that
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 .
Problem 1. Finding Conditional Probability
This table shows students by gender and by type of school in 2005. You pick a student at random.
What is P(female | graduate school)?

Question: What is the condition? (This is your event B.)


Student Genders Answer: Graduate school.

Males (in Females (in


thousands) thousands)
Show your work!
Two-year 1866 2462
Recall: Conditional probability formula.
colleges 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Four-year 4324 5517 𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
colleges
𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)
Graduate 1349 1954 P(female | graduate school) =
𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙)
schools 1954
=
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1349 + 1954
Table created by Table ≈ 0.59
The probability that the student is female given that she is in graduate
school is 0.59 or 59%.
Now You Try!
Problem 2. Conditional Probability in Statistics
Americans recycle increasing amounts through municipal waste collection. The table shows the
collection data for 2007. What is the probability that a sample recycled waste is paper?

Municipal Waste Collected Show your work!


(millions of tons)
Material Recycled Not Recycled

Paper 45.2 37.8

Metal 7.2 13.6

Glass 3.2 10.4


Plastic 2.1 28.6 Question: What is the probability that a sample of recycled waste
Other 21.7 46.3 is plastic?
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Question: What is the probability that a sample of not recycled
Table created by Table waste is glass?
Using a Tree Diagram
• Tree diagrams help organize
given information visually.
• It also helps determine new
. information based on the
Tree
given information.
Diagram
. • Note: You can also draw it
vertically!

Tree diagram created by SmartArt


Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram
A school system compiled the following information from a survey it sent to people who were juniors
10 years earlier.
• 85% of students graduated from high school.
• Of the students who graduated from high school, 90% are happy with their present jobs.
• Of the students who did not graduate from high school, 60% are happy with their present jobs.
What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from high school
and is happy with his or her present job?
Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.)
Let G = graduated, NG = not graduated, H = happy with present job, & NH = not happy with present job.

What are we given? 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90


• 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85
• 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85
• 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60
𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 0.10

Fill in all
information for
tree diagram!
What does this imply?
• 𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 1 − 0.85 = 0.15 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60
• 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 1 − 0.90 = 0.10
• 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 1 − 0.60 = 0.40 𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

Tree diagram created by SmartArt


Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.)
Recall the question: What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from high
school and is happy with his or her present job?
𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90
Show your work!
Let G = graduated, NG = not graduated, H = happy with 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85
present job, & NH = not happy with present job.

𝑃 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻 = 𝑃 𝐺 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 0.10
= 0.85 0.90
= 0.765 Information for
tree diagram!
The probability that a person from the junior class 10
years ago graduated and is happy with his or her present
job is 0.765 or 76.5%. 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

Tree diagram created by SmartArt


Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.) Now You Try!
Using the same tree diagram, answer the following questions:
1. What is the probability that a student from the same junior class did
not graduate and is happy with his or her present job? 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90
2. What is the probability that a student did not graduate and is not
happy with his or her present job? 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85

Show your work! 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 0.10

Information for
tree diagram!

𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

Tree diagram created by SmartArt


Assessment Activity:
Frayer Model
• Using Popplet or your guided notes, Definition Facts/Characteristics/Formula
create a Frayer model for the
vocabulary word: Conditional
Probability.
o Must include (as seen from the
model on the right-hand side)
 Vocabulary word Word
 Definition
 Facts/Characteristics/Formula
 Example
 Non-example
o Create your own example and non- Example Non-example
example!
• Popplet website:
http://www.popplet.com/
Frayer model created by SmartArt
• See this Popplet example:
http://popplet.com/app/#/5107581
Assessment Activity: KWL Chart
• Revisit the Padlet link at the beginning of lecture: https://padlet.com/jnguyen012/gv287zmwjxtq
• Fill in the 3rd column titled WHAT WE LEARNED.
• Any aspect of conditional probability and activities that we completed.

Questions? Comments?
• Fill in the 4th and 5th columns in the KWL Chart if you have any questions, comments, or concerns
about any parts of the lecture, homework, activities, or anything in general.
• All feedback is greatly appreciated! It helps me to help you and vice versa!