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Probability

Unit: Probability

Grade level: 11-12

Teacher: Mrs. Nguyen

Algebra 2: Common Core. Please see the references below.

Charles, R. I., Hall, B., Kennedy, D., Bellman, A. E., Bragg, S. C., Handlin, W. G., . . . Wiggins, G.

(2012). Probability of multiple events. In Algebra 2: common core (pp. 688-693).

Boston, MA: Pearson.

Charles, R. I., Hall, B., Kennedy, D., Bellman, A. E., Bragg, S. C., Handlin, W. G., . . . Wiggins, G.

(2012). Conditional probability. In Algebra 2: common core (pp. 696-702). Boston,

MA: Pearson.

Content Standard(s) Learning Objective(s)

• S.CP.6 Find the conditional probability of • Students will find the conditional

A given B as the fraction of B’s outcomes probability of event A given B.

that also belong to A, and interpret the

• Students will be able to define the

answer in terms of the model.

following key term: conditional

probability.

• Students will be able to draw tree

diagrams to solve conditional probability

problems.

Assessment Activity: KWL Chart

https://padlet.com/jnguyen012/gv287zmwjxtq

• Fill in the 1st column titled WHAT WE KNOW.

• Anything from previous material that you think we need in order to learn about conditional probability.

• Fill in the 2nd column title WANT TO KNOW.

• Write down anything that you are curious about conditional probability or what you want to know.

• Do not fill in the other columns yet. We will do this at the end of lecture!

Review

• Independent event – when the

outcome of one event does not

affect the outcome of the KEY CONCEPT:

second event Probability of A and B

• Dependent event – when the • If A and B are independent

outcome of one event does events, then P(A and B) =

affect the outcome of the P(A)P(B).

second event

Questions:

1. What does “with replacement” mean?

2. What does “without replacement” mean?

Review – cont. Try these!

Question: Are each of these events dependent or independent?

with replacement.

without replacement.

from an 8-slice pizza box.

Review – cont.

• Mutually exclusive events – when P(A) P(B)

two events cannot happen at the

same time

KEY CONCEPT:

Probability of A or B

• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

• If A and B are mutually exclusive

A B

events, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

B mutually exclusive? Why or why not?

Venn diagram created by SmartArt

Conditional Probability

given that event B has already Conditional Probability

occurred. “given”

• For any two events A and B with

• Notation: P(A|B) 𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0, then

“favorable outcome” “condition” 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)

𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = .

𝑃(𝐵)

• It follows from the formula

above that

𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 .

Problem 1. Finding Conditional Probability

This table shows students by gender and by type of school in 2005. You pick a student at random.

What is P(female | graduate school)?

Student Genders Answer: Graduate school.

thousands) thousands)

Show your work!

Two-year 1866 2462

Recall: Conditional probability formula.

colleges 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)

Four-year 4324 5517 𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =

𝑃(𝐵)

colleges

𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)

Graduate 1349 1954 P(female | graduate school) =

𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙)

schools 1954

=

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1349 + 1954

Table created by Table ≈ 0.59

The probability that the student is female given that she is in graduate

school is 0.59 or 59%.

Now You Try!

Problem 2. Conditional Probability in Statistics

Americans recycle increasing amounts through municipal waste collection. The table shows the

collection data for 2007. What is the probability that a sample recycled waste is paper?

(millions of tons)

Material Recycled Not Recycled

Plastic 2.1 28.6 Question: What is the probability that a sample of recycled waste

Other 21.7 46.3 is plastic?

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Question: What is the probability that a sample of not recycled

Table created by Table waste is glass?

Using a Tree Diagram

• Tree diagrams help organize

given information visually.

• It also helps determine new

. information based on the

Tree

given information.

Diagram

. • Note: You can also draw it

vertically!

Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram

A school system compiled the following information from a survey it sent to people who were juniors

10 years earlier.

• 85% of students graduated from high school.

• Of the students who graduated from high school, 90% are happy with their present jobs.

• Of the students who did not graduate from high school, 60% are happy with their present jobs.

What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from high school

and is happy with his or her present job?

Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.)

Let G = graduated, NG = not graduated, H = happy with present job, & NH = not happy with present job.

• 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85

• 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85

• 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 0.10

Fill in all

information for

tree diagram!

What does this imply?

• 𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 1 − 0.85 = 0.15 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

• 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 1 − 0.90 = 0.10

• 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 1 − 0.60 = 0.40 𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.)

Recall the question: What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from high

school and is happy with his or her present job?

𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90

Show your work!

Let G = graduated, NG = not graduated, H = happy with 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85

present job, & NH = not happy with present job.

𝑃 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻 = 𝑃 𝐺 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 0.10

= 0.85 0.90

= 0.765 Information for

tree diagram!

The probability that a person from the junior class 10

years ago graduated and is happy with his or her present

job is 0.765 or 76.5%. 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.) Now You Try!

Using the same tree diagram, answer the following questions:

1. What is the probability that a student from the same junior class did

not graduate and is happy with his or her present job? 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90

2. What is the probability that a student did not graduate and is not

happy with his or her present job? 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85

Information for

tree diagram!

𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

Assessment Activity:

Frayer Model

• Using Popplet or your guided notes, Definition Facts/Characteristics/Formula

create a Frayer model for the

vocabulary word: Conditional

Probability.

o Must include (as seen from the

model on the right-hand side)

Vocabulary word Word

Definition

Facts/Characteristics/Formula

Example

Non-example

o Create your own example and non- Example Non-example

example!

• Popplet website:

http://www.popplet.com/

Frayer model created by SmartArt

• See this Popplet example:

http://popplet.com/app/#/5107581

Assessment Activity: KWL Chart

• Revisit the Padlet link at the beginning of lecture: https://padlet.com/jnguyen012/gv287zmwjxtq

• Fill in the 3rd column titled WHAT WE LEARNED.

• Any aspect of conditional probability and activities that we completed.

Questions? Comments?

• Fill in the 4th and 5th columns in the KWL Chart if you have any questions, comments, or concerns

about any parts of the lecture, homework, activities, or anything in general.

• All feedback is greatly appreciated! It helps me to help you and vice versa!

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