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# Conditional

Probability
Unit: Probability
Teacher: Mrs. Nguyen

## The lesson content in this presentation is adapted from the textbook

Algebra 2: Common Core. Please see the references below.

Charles, R. I., Hall, B., Kennedy, D., Bellman, A. E., Bragg, S. C., Handlin, W. G., . . . Wiggins, G.
(2012). Probability of multiple events. In Algebra 2: common core (pp. 688-693).
Boston, MA: Pearson.
Charles, R. I., Hall, B., Kennedy, D., Bellman, A. E., Bragg, S. C., Handlin, W. G., . . . Wiggins, G.
(2012). Conditional probability. In Algebra 2: common core (pp. 696-702). Boston,
MA: Pearson.
Content Standard(s) Learning Objective(s)

• S.CP.6 Find the conditional probability of • Students will find the conditional
A given B as the fraction of B’s outcomes probability of event A given B.
that also belong to A, and interpret the
• Students will be able to define the
answer in terms of the model.
following key term: conditional
probability.
• Students will be able to draw tree
diagrams to solve conditional probability
problems.
Assessment Activity: KWL Chart

## • Visit this Padlet link to get started on the KWL Chart:

• Fill in the 1st column titled WHAT WE KNOW.
• Anything from previous material that you think we need in order to learn about conditional probability.
• Fill in the 2nd column title WANT TO KNOW.
• Write down anything that you are curious about conditional probability or what you want to know.
• Do not fill in the other columns yet. We will do this at the end of lecture!
Review
• Independent event – when the
outcome of one event does not
affect the outcome of the KEY CONCEPT:
second event Probability of A and B
• Dependent event – when the • If A and B are independent
outcome of one event does events, then P(A and B) =
affect the outcome of the P(A)P(B).
second event

Questions:
1. What does “with replacement” mean?
2. What does “without replacement” mean?
Review – cont. Try these!
Question: Are each of these events dependent or independent?

## 2. Pulling a marble out of a bag 2. Independent

with replacement.

## 3. Drawing a card from a deck 3. Dependent

without replacement.

## 4. Eating 1 slice of pizza at a time 4. Dependent

from an 8-slice pizza box.
Review – cont.
• Mutually exclusive events – when P(A) P(B)
two events cannot happen at the
same time

KEY CONCEPT:
Probability of A or B
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
• If A and B are mutually exclusive
A B
events, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

## Question: According to the Venn diagram, are A and P(A and B)

B mutually exclusive? Why or why not?
Venn diagram created by SmartArt
Conditional Probability

## • The probability of an event A KEY CONCEPT:

given that event B has already Conditional Probability
occurred. “given”
• For any two events A and B with
• Notation: P(A|B) 𝑃 𝐵 ≠ 0, then
“favorable outcome” “condition” 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = .
𝑃(𝐵)
• It follows from the formula
above that
𝑃 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 .
Problem 1. Finding Conditional Probability
This table shows students by gender and by type of school in 2005. You pick a student at random.
What is P(female | graduate school)?

## Males (in Females (in

thousands) thousands)
Two-year 1866 2462
Recall: Conditional probability formula.
colleges 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
Four-year 4324 5517 𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
colleges
𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)
Graduate 1349 1954 P(female | graduate school) =
𝑃(𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑠𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑙)
schools 1954
=
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1349 + 1954
Table created by Table ≈ 0.59
The probability that the student is female given that she is in graduate
school is 0.59 or 59%.
Now You Try!
Problem 2. Conditional Probability in Statistics
Americans recycle increasing amounts through municipal waste collection. The table shows the
collection data for 2007. What is the probability that a sample recycled waste is paper?

## Municipal Waste Collected Show your work!

(millions of tons)
Material Recycled Not Recycled

## Glass 3.2 10.4

Plastic 2.1 28.6 Question: What is the probability that a sample of recycled waste
Other 21.7 46.3 is plastic?
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Question: What is the probability that a sample of not recycled
Table created by Table waste is glass?
Using a Tree Diagram
• Tree diagrams help organize
given information visually.
• It also helps determine new
. information based on the
Tree
given information.
Diagram
. • Note: You can also draw it
vertically!

## Tree diagram created by SmartArt

Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram
A school system compiled the following information from a survey it sent to people who were juniors
10 years earlier.
• 85% of students graduated from high school.
• Of the students who graduated from high school, 90% are happy with their present jobs.
• Of the students who did not graduate from high school, 60% are happy with their present jobs.
What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from high school
and is happy with his or her present job?
Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.)
Let G = graduated, NG = not graduated, H = happy with present job, & NH = not happy with present job.

## What are we given? 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90

• 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85
• 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85
• 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60
𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 0.10

Fill in all
information for
tree diagram!
What does this imply?
• 𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 1 − 0.85 = 0.15 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60
• 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 1 − 0.90 = 0.10
• 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 1 − 0.60 = 0.40 𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

## Tree diagram created by SmartArt

Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.)
Recall the question: What is the probability that a person from the junior class 10 years ago graduated from high
school and is happy with his or her present job?
𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90
Let G = graduated, NG = not graduated, H = happy with 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85
present job, & NH = not happy with present job.

𝑃 𝐺 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻 = 𝑃 𝐺 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝐺 = 0.10
= 0.85 0.90
= 0.765 Information for
tree diagram!
The probability that a person from the junior class 10
years ago graduated and is happy with his or her present
job is 0.765 or 76.5%. 𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

## Tree diagram created by SmartArt

Problem 3. Using a Tree Diagram (cont.) Now You Try!
Using the same tree diagram, answer the following questions:
1. What is the probability that a student from the same junior class did
not graduate and is happy with his or her present job? 𝑃 𝐻 𝐺 = 0.90
2. What is the probability that a student did not graduate and is not
happy with his or her present job? 𝑃 𝐺 = 0.85

Information for
tree diagram!

𝑃 𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.60

𝑃 𝑁𝐺 = 0.15

𝑃 𝑁𝐻 𝑁𝐺 = 0.40

## Tree diagram created by SmartArt

Assessment Activity:
Frayer Model
• Using Popplet or your guided notes, Definition Facts/Characteristics/Formula
create a Frayer model for the
vocabulary word: Conditional
Probability.
o Must include (as seen from the
model on the right-hand side)
 Vocabulary word Word
 Definition
 Facts/Characteristics/Formula
 Example
 Non-example
o Create your own example and non- Example Non-example
example!
• Popplet website:
http://www.popplet.com/
Frayer model created by SmartArt
• See this Popplet example:
http://popplet.com/app/#/5107581
Assessment Activity: KWL Chart
• Revisit the Padlet link at the beginning of lecture: https://padlet.com/jnguyen012/gv287zmwjxtq
• Fill in the 3rd column titled WHAT WE LEARNED.
• Any aspect of conditional probability and activities that we completed.