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operation management -Forecasting

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4

PowerPoint presentation to accompany

Heizer and Render

Operations Management, Eleventh Edition

Principles of Operations Management, Ninth Edition

© 2014

© 2014

Pearson

Pearson

Education,

Education,

Inc.Inc. 4-1

What is Forecasting?

► Process of predicting a

future event

► Underlying basis

of all business

??

decisions

► Production

► Inventory

► Personnel

► Facilities

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-2

Forecasting Approaches

Quantitative Methods

historical data exist

► Existing products

► Current technology

► Involves mathematical techniques

► e.g., forecasting sales of color

televisions

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-3

Overview of Quantitative

Approaches

1. Naive approach

2. Moving averages

3. Exponential Time-series

smoothing models

4. Trend projection

5. Linear regression Associative

model

Time-Series Components

Trend Cyclical

Seasonal Random

Components of Demand

Trend

component

Demand for product or service

Seasonal peaks

Actual demand

line

Average demand

over 4 years

Random variation

| | | |

1 2 3 4

Time (years)

Figure 4.1

Naive Approach

► Assumes demand in next

period is the same as

demand in most recent period

► e.g., If January sales were 68, then

February sales will be 68

► Sometimes cost effective and

efficient

► Can be good starting point

Moving Average Method

► Used if little or no trend

► Used often for smoothing

► Provides overall impression of data

over time

Moving average

demand in previous n periods

n

Moving Average Example

MONTH ACTUAL SHED SALES 3-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE

January 10

February 12

March 13

April 16 (10 + 12 + 13)/3 = 11 2/3

May 19 (12 + 13 + 16)/3 = 13 2/3

June 23 (13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16

July 26 (16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3

August 30 (19 + 23 + 26)/3 = 22 2/3

September 28 (23 + 26 + 30)/3 = 26 1/3

October 18 (29 + 30 + 28)/3 = 28

November 16 (30 + 28 + 18)/3 = 25 1/3

December 14 (28 + 18 + 16)/3 = 20 2/3

Weighted Moving Average

► Used when some trend might be

present

► Older data usually less important

► Weights based on experience and

intuition

Weighted

moving

Weight for period n Demand in period n

average Weights

Weighted Moving Average

MONTH ACTUAL SHED SALES 3-MONTH WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE

January 10

February 12

March 13

April 16 [(3 x 13) + (2 x 12) + (10)]/6 = 12 1/6

May 19

June WEIGHTS

23 APPLIED PERIOD

16this month =

December 3 x14

Sales last mo. + 2 x Sales 2 mos. ago + 1 x Sales 3 mos. ago

Sum of the weights

Weighted Moving Average

MONTH ACTUAL SHED SALES 3-MONTH WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE

January 10

February 12

March 13

April 16 [(3 x 13) + (2 x 12) + (10)]/6 = 12 1/6

May 19 [(3 x 16) + (2 x 13) + (12)]/6 = 14 1/3

June 23 [(3 x 19) + (2 x 16) + (13)]/6 = 17

July 26 [(3 x 23) + (2 x 19) + (16)]/6 = 20 1/2

August 30 [(3 x 26) + (2 x 23) + (19)]/6 = 23 5/6

September 28 [(3 x 30) + (2 x 26) + (23)]/6 = 27 1/2

October 18 [(3 x 28) + (2 x 30) + (26)]/6 = 28 1/3

November 16 [(3 x 18) + (2 x 28) + (30)]/6 = 23 1/3

December 14 [(3 x 16) + (2 x 18) + (28)]/6 = 18 2/3

Potential Problems With

Moving Average

► Increasing n smooths the forecast but

makes it less sensitive to changes

► Does not forecast trends well

Graph of Moving Averages

Weighted moving average

30 –

25 –

Sales demand

20 –

15 – Actual sales

10 – Moving average

5–

| | | | | | | | | | | |

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Figure 4.2 Month

Exponential Smoothing

► Form of weighted moving average

► Weights decline exponentially

► Most recent data weighted most

► Requires smoothing constant ()

► Ranges from 0 to 1

► Subjectively chosen

► Involves little record keeping of past

data

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 15

Exponential Smoothing

New forecast = Last period’s forecast

+ (Last period’s actual demand

– Last period’s forecast)

Ft = Ft – 1 + (At – 1 - Ft – 1)

Ft – 1 = previous period’s forecast

= smoothing (or weighting) constant (0 ≤ ≤ 1)

At – 1 = previous period’s actual demand

Exponential Smoothing

Example

Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs

Actual demand = 153

Smoothing constant = .20

Exponential Smoothing

Example

Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs

Actual demand = 153

Smoothing constant = .20

Exponential Smoothing

Example

Predicted demand = 142 Ford Mustangs

Actual demand = 153

Smoothing constant = .20

= 142 + 2.2

= 144.2 ≈ 144 cars

Impact of Different

225 –

Actual = .5

demand

200 –

Demand

175 –

= .1

150 – | | | | | | | | |

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Quarter

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 20

Impact of Different

225 –

Actual = .5

► Chose

200 – high of

values

demand

when underlying average

Demand

is likely to change

► Choose low values of

175 –

is stable|

150 – | | | | | | | |

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Quarter

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 21

Choosing

The objective is to obtain the most

accurate forecast no matter the

technique

We generally do this by selecting the

model that gives us the lowest forecast

error

Forecast error = Actual demand – Forecast value

= At – Ft

Common Measures of Error

MAD

Actual - Forecast

n

Determining the MAD

ACTUAL

TONNAGE FORECAST WITH

QUARTER UNLOADED FORECAST WITH = .10 = .50

1 180 175 175

Determining the MAD

ACTUAL FORECAST ABSOLUTE FORECAST ABSOLUTE

TONNAGE WITH DEVIATION WITH DEVIATION

QUARTER UNLOADED = .10 FOR a = .10 = .50 FOR a = .50

1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00

Σ|Deviations|

MAD = 10.31 12.33

n

Common Measures of Error

Forecast errors

2

MSE

n

Determining the MSE

ACTUAL

TONNAGE FORECAST FOR

QUARTER UNLOADED = .10 (ERROR)2

1 180 175 52 = 25

2 168 175.50 (–7.5)2 = 56.25

3 159 174.75 (–15.75)2 = 248.06

4 175 173.18 (1.82)2 = 3.31

5 190 173.36 (16.64)2 = 276.89

6 205 175.02 (29.98)2 = 898.80

7 180 178.02 (1.98)2 = 3.92

8 182 178.22 (3.78)2 = 14.29

Sum of errors squared = 1,526.52

Forecast errors

2

n

Common Measures of Error

MAPE i 1

n

Determining the MAPE

ACTUAL

TONNAGE FORECAST FOR ABSOLUTE PERCENT ERROR

QUARTER UNLOADED = .10 100(ERROR/ACTUAL)

1 180 175.00 100(5/180) = 2.78%

2 168 175.50 100(7.5/168) = 4.46%

3 159 174.75 100(15.75/159) = 9.90%

4 175 173.18 100(1.82/175) = 1.05%

5 190 173.36 100(16.64/190) = 8.76%

6 205 175.02 100(29.98/205) = 14.62%

7 180 178.02 100(1.98/180) = 1.10%

8 182 178.22 100(3.78/182) = 2.08%

Sum of % errors = 44.75%

MAPE

absolute percent error 44.75%

5.59%

n 8

Comparison of Forecast Error

Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute

Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation

Tonnage with for with for

Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50

1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00

2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50

3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75

4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12

5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56

6 205 175.02 29.98 180.22 24.78

7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61

8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30

82.45 98.62

Comparison of Forecast Error

∑ |deviations|

Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute

Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation

MAD =

Tonnage with for with for

Quarter Unloaded

n

a = .10 a = .10 = .50 = .50

1 For 180

= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00

2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50

3 159 = 82.45/8

174.75 = 10.31

15.75 172.75 13.75

4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12

5 For 190

= .50 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56

6 205 = 98.62/8

175.02 = 29.98

12.33 180.22 24.78

7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61

8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30

82.45 98.62

Comparison of Forecast Error

∑ (forecast errors)

Rounded

2

Absolute Rounded Absolute

MSE =Tonnage

Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation

Quarter Unloaded

n

with

a = .10

for

a = .10

with

= .50

for

= .50

1 For 180

= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00

2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50

3 = 1,526.54/8

159 174.75 = 190.82

15.75 172.75 13.75

4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12

5 For 190

= .50 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56

6 205 175.02

= 1,561.91/8 = 29.98

195.24 180.22 24.78

7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61

8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30

82.45 98.62

MAD 10.31 12.33

Comparison

n

of Forecast Error

∑100|deviation

Rounded i|/actualRounded

Absolute i Absolute

=Actuali = 1

MAPE Tonnage Forecast

with

Deviation

for

Forecast

with

Deviation

for

Quarter Unloaded a = .10 n a = .10 a = .50 = .50

1 For

180= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00

2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50

3 159 = 44.75/8

174.75 =15.75

5.59% 172.75 13.75

4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12

5 For

190= .50 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56

6 205 175.02

= 54.05/8 =29.98

6.76% 180.22 24.78

7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61

8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30

82.45 98.62

MAD 10.31 12.33

MSE 190.82 195.24

Comparison of Forecast Error

Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute

Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation

Tonnage with for with for

Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50

1 180 175 5.00 175 5.00

2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50

3 159 174.75 15.75 172.75 13.75

4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12

5 190 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56

6 205 175.02 29.98 180.22 24.78

7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61

8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30

82.45 98.62

MAD 10.31 12.33

MSE 190.82 195.24

MAPE 5.59% 6.76%

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 34

Trend Projections

Fitting a trend line to historical data points to

project into the medium to long-range

Linear trends can be found using the least

squares technique

y^ = a + bx

where y^ = computed value of the variable to be predicted

(dependent variable)

a = y-axis intercept

b = slope of the regression line

x = the independent variable

Least Squares Method

Equations to calculate the regression variables

ŷ = a + bx

b

xy nx y

x nx

2 2

a = y - bx

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 36

Least Squares Example

ELECTRICAL ELECTRICAL

YEAR POWER DEMAND YEAR POWER DEMAND

1 74 5 105

2 79 6 142

3 80 7 122

4 90

Least Squares Example

ELECTRICAL POWER

YEAR (x) DEMAND (y) x2 xy

1 74 1 74

2 79 4 158

3 80 9 240

4 90 16 360

5 105 25 525

6 142 36 852

7 122 49 854

Σx = 28 Σy = 692 Σx2 = 140 Σxy = 3,063

x

x 28

4 y

y 692

98.86

n 7 n 7

Least Squares Example

b

xyELECTRICAL

7 498.86 295

nxy 3,063POWER

10.54

(y) 7 4

YEAR (x) 2 DEMAND140

2 2 2

x xy

x nx 28

1 74 1 74

()

2 79 4 158

3

a = y - bx = 98.8680

-10.54 4 = 56.70 9 240

4 90 16 360

5 105 ŷ = 56.70 +10.54x25

Thus, 525

6 142 36 852

7 122 49 854

Σx = 28 Σy = 692 Σx2 = 140 Σxy = 3,063

x=

å

Demandx in

= =4 y=

å

28year 8 = 56.70 y+ 10.54(8)

=

692

= 98.86

n 7 = 141.02,

n or 141

7 megawatts

Least Squares Example

Trend line,

160 – y^ = 56.70 + 10.54x

150 –

Power demand (megawatts)

140 –

130 –

120 –

110 –

100 –

90 –

80 –

70 –

60 –

50 –

| | | | | | | | |

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Year Figure 4.5

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 40

Seasonal Variations In Data

The multiplicative

seasonal model can

adjust trend data for

seasonal variations

in demand

Seasonal Variations In Data

Steps in the process for monthly seasons:

2. Compute the average demand over all months

3. Compute a seasonal index for each month

4. Estimate next year’s total demand

5. Divide this estimate of total demand by the

number of months, then multiply it by the

seasonal index for that month

Seasonal Index Example

DEMAND

AVERAGE AVERAGE

YEARLY MONTHLY SEASONAL

MONTH YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 DEMAND DEMAND INDEX

Jan 80 85 105 90

Feb 70 85 85 80

Mar 80 93 82 85

Apr 90 95 115 100

May 113 125 131 123

June 110 115 120 115

July 100 102 113 105

Aug 88 102 110 100

Sept 85 90 95 90

Oct 77 78 85 80

Nov 75 82 83 80

Dec 82 78 80 80

Total average annual demand = 1,128

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 43

Seasonal Index Example

DEMAND

AVERAGE AVERAGE

YEARLY MONTHLY SEASONAL

MONTH YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 DEMAND DEMAND INDEX

Jan 80 85 105 90 94

Feb 70 85 85 80 94

Mar 80 93 82 85 94

Apr

Average

90 95 1,128

115 100 94

monthly = = 94

May 113 125 131

12 months 123 94

June

demand

110 115 120 115 94

July 100 102 113 105 94

Aug 88 102 110 100 94

Sept 85 90 95 90 94

Oct 77 78 85 80 94

Nov 75 82 83 80 94

Dec 82 78 80 80 94

Total average annual demand = 1,128

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 44

Seasonal Index Example

DEMAND

AVERAGE AVERAGE

YEARLY MONTHLY SEASONAL

MONTH YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 DEMAND DEMAND INDEX

Jan 80 85 105 90 94 .957( = 90/94)

Feb 70 85 85 80 94

Mar 80 93 82 85 94

Apr 90 95 115 100 94

May 113 125 131 123 94

Seasonal110

June Average

115 monthly

120 demand

115 for past 394

years

=

July index 100 102 Average

113 monthly

105 demand 94

Aug 88 102 110 100 94

Sept 85 90 95 90 94

Oct 77 78 85 80 94

Nov 75 82 83 80 94

Dec 82 78 80 80 94

Total average annual demand = 1,128

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 45

Seasonal Index Example

DEMAND

AVERAGE AVERAGE

YEARLY MONTHLY SEASONAL

MONTH YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 DEMAND DEMAND INDEX

Jan 80 85 105 90 94 .957( = 90/94)

Feb 70 85 85 80 94 .851( = 80/94)

Mar 80 93 82 85 94 .904( = 85/94)

Apr 90 95 115 100 94 1.064( = 100/94)

May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309( = 123/94)

June 110 115 120 115 94 1.223( = 115/94)

July 100 102 113 105 94 1.117( = 105/94)

Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064( = 100/94)

Sept 85 90 95 90 94 .957( = 90/94)

Oct 77 78 85 80 94 .851( = 80/94)

Nov 75 82 83 80 94 .851( = 80/94)

Dec 82 78 80 80 94 .851( = 80/94)

Total average annual demand = 1,128

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 46

Seasonal Index Example

Seasonal forecast for Year 4

MONTH DEMAND MONTH DEMAND

x .957 = 96 x 1.117 = 112

12 12

Feb 1,200 Aug 1,200

x .851 = 85 x 1.064 = 106

12 12

Mar 1,200 Sept 1,200

x .904 = 90 x .957 = 96

12 12

Apr 1,200 Oct 1,200

x 1.064 = 106 x .851 = 85

12 12

May 1,200 Nov 1,200

x 1.309 = 131 x .851 = 85

12 12

June 1,200 Dec 1,200

x 1.223 = 122 x .851 = 85

12 12

Associative Forecasting

Used when changes in one or more independent

variables can be used to predict the changes in

the dependent variable

regression analysis

in the time-series example

Associative Forecasting

Forecasting an outcome based on predictor

variables using the least squares technique

y^ = a + bx

sales)

a = y-axis intercept

b = slope of the regression line

x = the independent variable

Associative Forecasting

Example

NODEL’S SALES AREA PAYROLL NODEL’S SALES AREA PAYROLL

(IN $ MILLIONS), y (IN $ BILLIONS), x (IN $ MILLIONS), y (IN $ BILLIONS), x

2.0 1 2.0 2

3.0 3 2.0 1

2.5 4 3.5 7

4.0 –

Nodel’s sales

(in$ millions)

3.0 –

2.0 –

1.0 –

| | | | | | |

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Area payroll (in $ billions)

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 50

Associative Forecasting

Example

SALES, y PAYROLL, x x2 xy

2.0 1 1 2.0

3.0 3 9 9.0

2.5 4 16 10.0

2.0 2 4 4.0

2.0 1 1 2.0

3.5 7 49 24.5

Σy = 15.0 Σx = 18 Σx2 = 80 Σxy = 51.5

x

x 18 3 y

y 15 2.5

6 6 6 6

b

xy nxy 51.5 (6)(3)(2.5) .25 a y bx 2.5 (.25)(3) 1.75

x nx

2 2

80 (6)(3 ) 2

Associative Forecasting

Example

SALES, y PAYROLL, x x2 xy

2.0 1 1 2.0

3.0 3

ŷ = 1.75

9

+ .25x 9.0

2.5 4 16 10.0

2.0 2 Sales = 1.75

4 + .25(payroll)

4.0

2.0 1 1 2.0

3.5 7 49 24.5

Σy = 15.0 Σx = 18 Σx2 = 80 Σxy = 51.5

x

x 18 3 y

y 15 2.5

6 6 6 6

b

xy nxy 51.5 (6)(3)(2.5) .25 a y bx 2.5 (.25)(3) 1.75

x nx

2 2

80 (6)(3 ) 2

Associative Forecasting

Example

SALES, y PAYROLL, x x2 xy

2.0 1 1 2.0

4.0 –

3.0 3

ŷ = 1.75

9

+ .25x 9.0

Nodel’s sales

(in$ millions)

2.0 2 Sales = 1.75

4 + .25(payroll)

4.0

2.0 2.0 – 1 1 2.0

3.5 7 49 24.5

1.0 –

Σy = 15.0 Σx = 18 Σx2 = 80 Σxy = 51.5

| | | | | | |

x=

å x 1 18 2

0

= =3

3 å

4 y 5 15 6

y =(in $ billions)

= = 2.5

7

Area payroll

6 6 6 6

b

xy nxy 51.5 (6)(3)(2.5) .25 a y bx 2.5 (.25)(3) 1.75

x nx

2 2

80 (6)(3 ) 2

Associative Forecasting

Example

then:

= 1.75 + 1.5 = 3.25

Sales = $3,250,000

Associative Forecasting

Example

If payroll4.0

next

– year is estimated to be $6 billion,

then: 3.25

Nodel’s sales

(in$ millions)

3.0 –

2.0 –

Sales (in$ millions) = 1.75 + .25(6)

1.0 –

= 1.75 + 1.5 = 3.25

| | | | | | |

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Sales = $3,250,000

Area payroll (in $ billions)

Correlation

► How strong is the linear relationship

between the variables?

► Correlation does not necessarily imply

causality!

► Coefficient of correlation, r, measures

degree of association

► Values range from -1 to +1

Correlation Coefficient

n xy x y

r

n x 2 2

x n y y

2 2

Correlation Coefficient

Figure 4.10

y y

x x

(a) Perfect negative (e) Perfect positive

correlation y y correlation

y

x x

(b) Negative correlation (d) Positive correlation

x

(c) No correlation

| | | | | | | | |

–1.0 –0.8 –0.6 –0.4 –0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Correlation coefficient values

Correlation Coefficient

y x x2 xy y2

2.0 1 1 2.0 4.0

3.0 3 9 9.0 9.0

2.5 4 16 10.0 6.25

2.0 2 4 4.0 4.0

2.0 1 1 2.0 4.0

3.5 7 49 24.5 12.25

Σy = 15.0 Σx = 18 Σx2 = 80 Σxy = 51.5 Σy2 = 39.5

(6)(51.5) – (18)(15.0)

r=

é(6)(80) – (18)2 ùé(16)(39.5) – (15.0)2 ù

ë ûë û

309 - 270 39 39

= = = = .901

(156)(12) 1,872 43.3

Correlation

► Coefficient of Determination, r2,

measures the percent of change in y

predicted by the change in x

► Values range from 0 to 1

► Easy to interpret

r = .901

r2 = .81

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 60

Monitoring and Controlling

Forecasts

Tracking Signal

► Measures how well the forecast is predicting

actual values

► Ratio of cumulative forecast errors to mean

absolute deviation (MAD)

► Good tracking signal has low values

► If forecasts are continually high or low, the

forecast has a bias error

Monitoring and Controlling

Forecasts

Tracking Cumulative error

signal =

MAD

(Actual demand in period i Forecast demand in period i )

Actual Forecast

n

Tracking Signal

Figure 4.11

Signal exceeding limit

Tracking signal

Upper control limit

+

0 MADs Acceptable

range

–

Lower control limit

Time

Tracking Signal Example

ABSOLUTE CUM ABS TRACKING

ACTUAL FORECAST CUM FORECAST FORECAST SIGNAL (CUM

QTR DEMAND DEMAND ERROR ERROR ERROR ERROR MAD ERROR/MAD)

1 90 100 –10 –10 10 10 10.0 –10/10 = –1

MAD

Forecast errors

85

14.2

At the end of quarter 6, n 6

Cumulative error 35

Tracking signal = = = 2.5 MADs

MAD 14.2

© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 64

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