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El Nino • criter
Watch ia
EL NINO
STAGE
El Nino • criter
FORM Alert ia
(BOM,
2018) El Nino • criter
ia
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EL NINO WATCH

Sumber: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=Criteria
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EL NINO ALERT

Sumber: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=Criteria
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EL NINO

Sumber: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/#tabs=Criteria
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El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño forming in
the coming months is around 70%.
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EL NINO ALERT
Any three of the following criteria need to be satisfied

Sea Surface Winds SOI Models

Temperature Trade winds have The two-month A majority of surveyed
A clear warming trend been weaker than average SOI is –7 or climate models show
has been observed in average in the lower. sustained warming to
the NINO3 or NINO3.4 western or central at least 0.8 °C above
regions of the Pacific equatorial Pacific average in the NINO3
Ocean during the past Ocean during any two or NINO3.4 regions of
three to six months of the last three the Pacific Ocean by
months the late winter or
spring.
Suhu permukaan laut rata –
rata di atas Laut Jawa dan
Samudra Hindia dekat
selatan Pulau Jawa berkisar
antara 25 – 29⁰C. Laut
Jawa dan sebagian kecil
wilayah Samudra Hindia
dekat Indonesia.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS

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SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY

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The tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral, despite some indicators reaching El Niño levels.
As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. The positive Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD) event in the tropical Indian Ocean weakened in the past fortnight.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have now exceeded El Niño thresholds for
more than a month. However atmospheric indicators—such as trade winds, cloud patterns, and the
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)—have not reached El Niño levels. This indicates that the tropical
ocean and atmosphere are not reinforcing each other and remain 'uncoupled'. This coupling is
required to establish and sustain any ENSO event, and is what drives widespread Australian and
global impacts.
Recently, trade winds in the western Pacific have weakened in association with the Madden–Julian
Oscillation. Some models suggest they may remain weakened for at least the next fortnight.
International climate models predict sea surface temperatures to remain at or above El Niño levels in
December and January. By February, all but one of the eight surveyed models remain above El Niño
thresholds. El Niño effects in Australia over summer typically include higher fire risk, greater chance of
heatwaves, and fewer tropical cyclones.
The positive IOD event which began in early September has weakened, with the most recent value
just below positive thresholds. It is likely that the positive IOD is nearing its end—consistent with
model outlooks and the IOD's natural cycle. The IOD typically has little influence on Australian climate
from December to April.