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GRU 60104 (D)

RESEARCH METHODS FOR EDUCATION


ASSOC. PROF.DR.GOH HOCK SENG

WEEK 6 : INFERENTIAL STATISTICS


BY,
CHAN SIANG JACK (P20181000839)
AND
JEEVITRA A/P SENTNA RAJA (M20181001220)
Inferential Statistics
Inferential statistics use a
RANDOM SAMPLE of data
taken from a population to
describe and make
inferences about the
POPULATION.
Inferential statistics are
VALUABLE when
Ex : measuring examination of each
the diameter of member of an entire
each nail that is
population is NOT
manufactured in
a factory is CONVENIENT OR
impractical. POSSIBLE.

Minitab. (2017). Inferential Statistics. Retrieved from https://support.minitab.com/en-


us/minitab-express/1/help-and-how-to/basic-statistics/inference/supporting-
topics/basics/what-are-inferential-statistics/
sampling distribution
of the sample

approaches a normal
distribution

sample size gets


larger

Statistics How To. (2018). Retrieved from Central Limit Theorem: Definition and Examples in
Easy Steps: https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-
statistics/normal-distributions/central-limit-theorem-definition-examples/#CLTWHAT
Statistics How To. (2018). Retrieved from Central Limit Theorem: Definition and Examples in
Easy Steps: https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-
statistics/normal-distributions/central-limit-theorem-definition-examples/#CLTWHAT
Video
SAMPLING AND STATISTICAL
SIGNIFICANCE
If you want to GENERALIZE the
findings of your RESEARCH on a
small SAMPLE to a WHOLE
POPULATION, your sample size
should at least be of a size that
could meet the SIGNIFICANCE
LEVEL, given the expected
effects.

Expected effects are often worked


out from pilot studies, common
sense-thinking or by comparing
similar experiments.

Siddharth Kalla (Jun 18, 2009). Statistical Significance And Sample Size. Retrieved Oct 14,
2018 from Explorable.com: https://explorable.com/statistical-significance-sample-size
When a finding is significant, it
Statistical significance helps simply means you can feel
quantify whether a result is confident that’s it real, not
likely due to chance or to that you just got lucky (or
some factor of interest. unlucky) in choosing the
sample.

When you run an experiment,


conduct a survey, take a poll, or Most good statistical packages
analyze a set of data, you’re will report the significance
taking a sample of some along with the results. There
population of interest, not are online tools that will
looking at every single data calculate it for you.
point that you possibly can.

Gallo, A. (2016, February 16). Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from


https://hbr.org/2016/02/a-refresher-on-statistical-significance
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
• Significant differences ~ reject the NULL
HYPOTHESIS occur by chance
• Significant if larger random sample
• Can be found in even with very small
differences if the sample size is large
enough.
Hypothesis Testing
 Hypothesis Testing – method for testing a claim of hypothesis
about a parameter (ideas, claims) of a group or population

 Statistical hypotheses are stated in 2 forms


 Null Form
H0
 Alternative Form
H1
Terms & Definitions
 Null hypothesis – a statement about a population
parameter (claims, ideas), that is assumed to be true.
 - Null hypothesis is a starting point – test whether the value stated
in the null hypothesis is likely to be true
 *reason null hypothesis are used with inferential statistics is that
we never prove something to be true; we only fail to disprove it.

 Alternative hypothesis – a statement that directly


contradicts a null hypothesis by stating that the actual value
of a population parameter is less than (<), greater than (>),
or not equal (≠) to the value stated in the null hypothesis.
 Alternative hypothesis states what we think is wrong about the null
hypothesis.
Terms & Definitions
 P-values (Calculated Probability)
 The level of marginal significance within a statistical hypothesis
test representing the probability of the occurrence of a given
event (Investopedia, 2018)
 Simpler term – p-values tell you how strongly your sample data
contradicts the null hypothesis.
 Use in conjunction with Significance Level to determine whether
the date favor the null or alternative hypothesis

 Significance Level (α)


 The probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.
 Level of significance or criterion for a hypothesis test.
 Standard alpha level are set at .05 or 5%.
 If P < 0.05, reject null hypothesis; If P > 0.05, retain null
hypothesis
How To 101– Hypothesis Testing
 The goal of hypothesis testing – determine the likelihood that
a population parameter, is likely to be true.

 Total of 4 steps in hypothesis testing


 Step 1 – State the hypothesis
 Step 2 – Set the criteria for a decision
 Step 3 – Compute the test statistic
 Step 4 – Make a decision
 Decision to retain the null hypothesis
 Decision to reject the null hypothesis
An Example of Hypothesis Testing

 Sample Testing (page 12 – 15) 


https://www.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-
binaries/40007_Chapter8.pdf
Statistical Test:
One Tailed Test and Two Tailed Test
 One-tailed Test
 A statistical hypothesis in which alternative hypothesis has only one end
 Represents the estimated test parameter is greater (>) or less than (<)
the critical value.
 IF sample tested falls in the region of rejection; either on the left or right
side, we reject the null hypothesis

 Two-tailed Test
 A significance test in which alternative hypothesis has two ends
 The region of rejection or critical area is on both the ends of the normal
distribution
 IF the calculated value falls in either the two tails of the probability
distribution, an alternative hypothesis
One-tailed Test VS Two-tailed Test
Basis of Comparison One-tailed Test Two-tailed Test
Meaning A statistical hypothesis in A significance test in
which alternative which alternative
hypothesis has only ONE hypothesis has TWO
END ENDS
Hypothesis Directional Non-directional
Region of Rejection Either Left or Right Both Left and Right
Determines If there is a relationship If there is relationship
between variables in between variables in
single direction either directions
Result Greater or less than Greater or less than
certain value certain range of values
Sing in Alternative
(>) or (<) ≠
hypothesis
One-tailed Test VS Two-tailed Test

One-tailed Test Two-tailed Test


Types of Error : Error in
Decision Making

In final step of hypothesis testing, we


decide to either retain or reject the null
hypothesis based on the criterion that
we have set in step 2.

However, there are errors in statistical


test called Type I and Type II errors.
Type I Error (α Error) & Type II
Error (β Error)
 Type I error or α error is the error in statistical decision
making that occurs if the Null hypothesis (H0) is
rejected when actually it is true in the population
 A.K.A False Positives

 Type II error or the β error is the error in decision


making that occurs if the null hypothesis is NOT
rejected when actually it is false in the population, and
the alternative hypothesis (H1) is true.
 A.K.A False Negative
Four (4) Outcomes for Making
a Decision
Decision

Retain the null Reject the null

Correct Type I error:


decision:
H0 True
P=1-α P=α
Truth in the
Population Type II Error: Correct
decision:
H1 True
P=β P=1-β

Taken and adapted from:


Sagepub, 2017
Inference Technique: Parametric VS
Nonparametric
 Parametric Test  Nonparametric Test
 A statistical test, in  A statistical test used in
Taken And Adopted which specific
From: Surbhi, 2016. the case of non-metric
assumptions are made independent variables
about the population
parameter
Basis of Test Statistic Distribution Arbitrary
Measurement Level Interval or ratio Nominal or Ordinal
Measure of central tendency Mean Median
Information about Completely known Unavailable
population
Variables Variables and Attributes
applicability
Pearson Spearman
Correlation test
Normal Any
Assumed Distribution
Can draw more conclusions Simplicity; less affected by
Benefits
outliers
Hypothesis Tests for Parametric
Test & Nonparametric Test
Taken And Adopted
From: Surbhi, 2016.
Parametric Test Nonparametric Test
 One Sample
 One Sample
Chi-square
T-Test
Kolmogorov-Smirnov
Z Test
Runs
 Two Sample Binomial
 Two Sample

 Independent  Paired
Samples Samples  Independent Samples  Paired Samples
Two-group T- Paired T-Test Chi-square  Sign
Test Mann-Whitney  Wilcoxon
Median  McNemar
Z Test
 Chi-Square
Kolmogorov-Smirnov
REFERENCES
• Fraenkel, J. R., Wallen, N. E., Hyun, H. H. (2015). How To Design
And Evaluate Research in Education (8th ed.) Mc Graw Hill Education

• Gallo, A. (2016, February 16). Harvard Business Review. Retrieved


from https://hbr.org/2016/02/a-refresher-on-statistical-significance

• Minitab. (2017). Inferential Statistics. Retrieved from


https://support.minitab.com/en-us/minitab-express/1/help-and-how-
to/basic-statistics/inference/supporting-topics/basics/what-are-inferential-
statistics/
REFERENCES

• Siddharth Kalla (Jun 18, 2009). Statistical Significance And Sample


Size. Retrieved Oct 14, 2018 from
Explorable.com: https://explorable.com/statistical-significance-
sample-size
• Statistics How To. (2018). Retrieved from Central Limit Theorem:
Definition and Examples in Easy Steps:
https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-and-
statistics/normal-distributions/central-limit-theorem-definition-
examples/#CLTWHAT

• Surbhi S. (2017). Difference Between One-tailed and Two-tailed Test.


Retrieved from http://www. pearsonassessments.com/research
FURTHER READING
• https://www.sagepub.com/sites/default/files/upm-
binaries/40007_Chapter8.pdf (Hypothesis Testing)
• https://stats.idre.ucla.edu/other/mult-
pkg/faq/general/faq-what-are-the-differences-between-
one-tailed-and-two-tailed-tests/ (One-tailed test and two-
tailed test)
• https://www.khanacademy.org/math/statistics-
probability/significance-tests-one-sample/more-
significance-testing-videos/v/one-tailed-and-two-tailed-
tests (more on one-tailed and two-tailed test)
• http://sphweb.bumc.bu.edu/otlt/MPH-
Modules/BS/BS704_Nonparametric/index.html
(Nonparametric test)