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SCHEDULE AND TIME

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Lecture- VIII

Project Scheduling with probabilistic activity

Uncertain Activity Durations

For each activity in the project three time estimates are obtained

- Optimistic time, a

- Most likely time, m

- Pessimistic time, b

PERT Time Estimates

=b-a/6

BETA Distribution

• [ a,b are the location parameters and c,d are the shape parameters ]

Why choose BETA ?

• Intuitive appeal.

Other possible distributions

• UNIFORM

• TRIANGULAR

• EXPONENTIAL

• NORMAL

• DISCRETE

UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

TRIANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION

Basic PERT Procedure

• Compute mean and variance of all jobs.

• Conduct forward and backward pass on the project network with expected times of all

activities.

• Obtain the distribution of the Project Duration.

- Chances of meeting the target date.

- Probability of exceeding a given ceiling date.

- Probability that the project duration is confined to an interval of time.

An Example

Sample Network (A-O-A)

FORWARD & BACKWARD PASS

CRITICAL PATH

Distribution of the Project Duration

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

- mean +/- 1 sigma 68% (29.41 -- 34.11)

- mean +/- 2 sigma 95% (26.76 -- 36.56)

- mean +/- 3 sigma 99% (24.31 -- 39.01)

PROBABILITY STATEMENTS

Area from normal tables = 0.9616 - 0.0681 = 0.8935

Standard PERT Assumptions

• The critical path contains a large no. of activities so that we can invoke the Central Limit

Theorem.

• The mean and variance of the activities are given by (a+4m+b)/6 and [(b-a)/6]2.

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