Chapter 9

© All Rights Reserved

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Ch09_AISE

Chapter 9

© All Rights Reserved

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You are on page 1of 19

to accompany

seventh edition, by Ronald M. Weiers

Donald N. Stengel

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Chapter 9 - Learning Objectives

• Explain the difference between a point and

an interval estimate.

• Construct and interpret confidence

intervals:

– with a z for the population mean or proportion.

– with a t for the population mean.

• Determine appropriate sample size to

achieve specified levels of accuracy and

confidence.

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Chapter 9 - Key Terms

• Point estimates • Accuracy

• Interval estimates • Degrees of

• Interval limits freedom (df)

• Confidence • Maximum likely

coefficient sampling error

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Unbiased Point Estimates

Population Sample

Parameter Statistic Formula

x

• Mean, µ x x = ni

(x – x)2

• Variance, s2 s2 s2 = i

n –1

• Proportion, p p p = x successes

n trials

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Central Concepts Applied

Example, Problem 9.11: In surveying a simple random

sample of 1000 employed adults, we found that 450

individuals felt they were underpaid by at least $3000.

Based on these results, we have 95% confidence that the

proportion of employed adults who share this

sentiment is between 0.419 and 0.481.

a. Point estimate: 450/1000 = 0.45

b. Confidence interval estimate: [0.419, 0.481]

c. Confidence coefficient and confidence level:

95% and 0.95

d. Accuracy: (0.45 – 0.419) = (0.481 – 0.45) = 0.031

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Confidence Interval: µ, s Known

where x = sample mean ASSUMPTION:

s = population standard infinite population

deviation

n = sample size

z = standard normal score

for area in tail = a/2

a 2 a a 2

z: –z 0 +z

s s

x: x – z x x + z

n n

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Confidence Interval: µ, s Unknown

where x = sample mean ASSUMPTION:

s = sample standard Population

deviation approximately

n = sample size normal and

t = t-score for area infinite

in tail = a/2

df = n – 1 a 2 a a 2

t: –t 0 +t

x: x –t s x x +t s

n n

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Confidence Interval on p

where p = sample proportion ASSUMPTION:

n = sample size n•p 5,

z = standard normal score n•(1–p) 5,

for area in tail = a/2 and population

infinite

a 2 a a 2

z: –z 0 +z

p : p – z p(1– p) p p + z p(1– p)

n n

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Converting Confidence Intervals to

Accommodate a Finite Population

• Mean: • Proportion:

x za s N – n

2 n N –1

p za

p(1– p) N – n

or

n N –1

2

x ta s N – n

2 n N –1

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Interpretation of

Confidence Intervals

from the same population will

generate (1–a)% of the time a sample

statistic that falls within the stated

confidence interval.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Sample Size Determination for µ

from an Infinite Population

• Mean: Note s is known and e, the bound

within which you want to estimate µ, is given.

– The interval half-width is e, also called the

maximum likely error: e = z s

n

z 2 s 2

– Solving for n, we find: n=

e2

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Sample Size Determination for µ

from a Finite Population

• Mean: Note s is known and e, the bound

within which you want to estimate µ, is given.

n = s 2

e2 + s 2

z2 N

N = population size

z = z-score for (1–a)% confidence

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Sample Size Determination for p

from an Infinite Population

• Proportion: Note e, the bound within which

you want to estimate p, is given.

– The interval half-width is e, also called the

maximum likely error: e = z p(1– p)

n

z 2

e2

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

Sample Size Determination for p

from a Finite Population

• Mean: Note e, the bound within which you

want to estimate µ, is given.

n = p(1– p)

e2 + p(1– p)

z2 N

where n = required sample size

N = population size

z = z-score for (1–a)% confidence

p = sample estimator of p

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

An Example: Confidence Intervals

• Example, Problem 9.34: An automobile rental

agency has the following mileages for a simple

random sample of 20 cars that were rented last

year. Given this information, and assuming the

data are from a population that is approximately

normally distributed, construct and interpret the

90% confidence interval for the population mean.

55 35 65 64 69 37 88

80 39 61 54 50 74 92

59 50 38 59 29 60

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

A Confidence Interval Example, cont.

• Since s is not known but the population is approximately

normally distributed, we will use the t-distribution to

construct the 90% confidence interval on the mean.

x = 57.9, s = 17.384

df = 20 –1 = 19, a / 2 = 0.05

So, t = 1.729 a 2 a a 2

s 17.384 t: –t 0 +t

x t 57.9 1.729 x: x –t s

n

x x+t s

n

n 20

57.9 6.721 (51.179, 64.621) © 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

A Confidence Interval Example, cont.

• Interpretation:

– 90% of the time that samples of

20 cars are randomly selected

from this agency’s rental cars,

the average mileage will fall

between 51.179 miles and

64.621 miles.

© 2011 Cengage Learning.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

An Example: Sample Size

• Example, Problem 9.63: A national political

candidate has commissioned a study to

determine the percentage of registered voters

who intend to vote for him in the upcoming

election. In order to have 95% confidence that

the sample percentage will be within 3

percentage points of the actual population

percentage, how large a simple random sample

is required?

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

A Sample Size Example, cont.

• From the problem we learn:

– (1 – a) = 0.95, so a = 0.05 and a /2 = 0.025

– e = 0.03

• Since no estimate for p is given, we will use 0.5

because that creates the largest standard error.

2( p)(1– p) 1.962 (0.5)(0.5)

n= z = = 1,067. 1

e2 (0.03)2

To preserve the minimum confidence, the candidate

should sample n = 1,068 voters.

All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied, or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.

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