Chapter 4 Probability Distribution

ELEMENTARY STATISTICS
Chapter 4 Probability Distributions
MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

EDITION
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 1
Chapter 4
Probability Distributions
4-1 Overview
4-2 Random Variables
4-3 Binomial Probability Distributions
4-4 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation
for the Binomial Distribution
4-5 The Poisson Distribution
4-1 Overview
This chapter will deal with the
construction of
probability distributions
by combining the methods of Chapter 2
with the those of Chapter 3.
Probability Distributions will describe
what will probably happen instead of
what actually did happen.
Combining Descriptive Statistics Methods and
Probabilities to Form a Theoretical Model of
Figure 4-1 Behavior
Section 4-2 Random Variables

EDITION
4-2
Random Variables
Definitions
 Random Variable
a variable (typically represented by x) that has a
single numerical value, determined by chance,
for each outcome of a procedure
Probability Distribution
a graph, table, or formula that gives the
probability for each value of the random variable
Table 4-1
Probability Distribution
Number of Girls Among Fourteen Newborn Babies
x P(x)
0 0.000
1 0.001
2 0.006
3 0.022
4 0.061
5 0.122
6 0.183
7 0.209
8 0.183
9 0.122
10 0.061
11 0.022
12 0.006
13 0.001
14 0.000
Definitions
Discrete random variable
has either a finite number of values or countable
number of values, where ‘countable’ refers to the
fact that there might be infinitely many values,
but they result from a counting process.
Continuous random variable

has infinitely many values, and those values can
be associated with measurements on a
continuous scale with no gaps or interruptions.
Probability Histogram
Figure 4-3
Requirements for
Requirements for
 P(x) = 1
where x assumes all possible values
Requirements for
 P(x) = 1
where x assumes all possible values
0  P(x)  1
for every value of x
Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation
of a Probability Distribution
Formula 4-1
µ =  [x • P(x)]
Formula 4-2
 =  [(x - µ) • P(x)]
2 2
Formula 4-3
 = [ x • P(x)] - µ (shortcut)
2 2 2
Formula 4-1
µ =  [x • P(x)]
Formula 4-2
 =  [(x - µ) • P(x)]
2 2
Formula 4-3
 = [ x • P(x)] - µ (shortcut)
2 2 2
Formula 4-4
 = [ x 2 • P(x)] - µ 2
Formula 4-1
µ =  [x • P(x)]
Formula 4-2
 =  [(x - µ) • P(x)]
2 2
Formula 4-3
 = [ x • P(x)] - µ (shortcut)
2 2 2
Formula 4-4
 = [ x 2 • P(x)] - µ 2
Roundoff Rule for µ,  , and 
2
Round results by carrying one more decimal

place than the number of decimal places used
for the random variable x. If the values of x
are integers, round µ, 2, and  to one
decimal place.
Definition
Expected Value
The average value of outcomes
E =  [x • P(x)]
E =  [x • P(x)]
Event
Win
Lose
E =  [x • P(x)]
Event x
Win $499
Lose - $1
E =  [x • P(x)]
Event x P(x)
Win $499 0.001
Lose - $1 0.999
E =  [x • P(x)]
Event x P(x) x • P(x)

Win $499 0.001 0.499
Lose - $1 0.999 - 0.999
E =  [x • P(x)]
Event x P(x) x • P(x)

Win $499 0.001 0.499
Lose - $1 0.999 - 0.999
E = -$.50
Section 4-3 Binomial Probability Distributions

EDITION
Definitions
Binomial Probability Distribution
1. The experiment must have a fixed number of trials.
2. The trials must be independent. (The outcome of

any individual trial doesn’t affect the probabilities
in the other trials.)
3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into

two categories.
4. The probabilities must remain constant for each

trial.
Notation for Binomial Probability
Distributions
n = fixed number of trials
x = specific number of successes in n trials
p = probability of success in one of n trials
q = probability of failure in one of n trials
(q = 1 - p )
P(x) = probability of getting exactly x
success among n trials
Be sure that x and p both refer to the same category
being called a success.
Method 1
Binomial Probability
Formula
Method 1
Formula
 P(x) = n! • px • qn-x
(n - x )! x!
Method 1
Formula
 P(x) = n! • px • qn-x
(n - x )! x!
 P(x) = nCx • px • qn-x
for calculators with nCr key, where r = x
Example: Find the probability of getting exactly
3 correct responses among 5 different requests
from AT&T directory assistance. Assume in
general, AT&T is correct 90% of the time.
This is a binomial experiment where:
n=5
x=3
p = 0.90
q = 0.10
Example: Find the probability of getting exactly
3 correct responses among 5 different requests
from AT&T directory assistance. Assume in
general, AT&T is correct 90% of the time.
This is a binomial experiment where:
n=5
x=3
p = 0.90
q = 0.10
Using the binomial probability formula to solve:
3 2
P(3) = 5C3 • 0.9 • 01 = 0.0.0729
Method 2
Table A-1 in Appendix A
For n = 15 and p = 0.10
Table A-1
P(x)
n x
15 0 0.206
1 0.343
2 0.267
3 0.129
4 0.043
5 0.010
6 0.002
7 0.0+
8 0.0+
9 0.0+
10 0.0+
11 0.0+
12 0.0+
13 0.0+
14 0.0+
15 0.0+
For n = 15 and p = 0.10
Table A-1
n x P(x)
15 0 0.206
1 0.343
2 0.267
3 0.129
4 0.043
5 0.010
6 0.002
7 0.0+
8 0.0+
9 0.0+
10 0.0+
11 0.0+
12 0.0+
13 0.0+
14 0.0+
15 0.0+
For n = 15 and p = 0.10
Table A-1 Binomial Probability Distribution
n x P(x) x P(x)
15 0 0.206 0 0.206
1 0.343 1 0.343
2 0.267 2 0.267
3 0.129 3 0.129
4 0.043 4 0.043
5 0.010 5 0.010
6 0.002 6 0.002
7 0.0+ 7 0.000
8 0.0+ 8 0.000
9 0.0+ 9 0.000
10 0.0+ 10 0.000
11 0.0+ 11 0.000
12 0.0+ 12 0.000
13 0.0+ 13 0.000
14 0.0+ 14 0.000
15 0.0+ 15 0.000
Example: Using Table A-1 for n = 5 and p = 0.90,
find the following:
a) The probability of exactly 3 successes
b) The probability of at least 3 successes
a) P(3) = 0.073
b) P(at least 3) = P(3 or 4 or 5)
= P(3) or P(4) or P(5)
= 0.073 + 0.328 + 0.590
= 0.991
Method 3
Using Technology
 STATDISK
 Minitab
Excel
 TI-83 Plus
Formula
n! n-x
P(x) = (n - x )! x!
• px • q
Number of
outcomes with
exactly x
successes among
n trials
Formula
n! n-x
P(x) = (n - x )! x!
• px • q
Number of Probability of x
outcomes with successes
exactly x among n trials
successes for any one
among n trials particular order
ELEMENTARY
Section 4-4
STATISTICS
Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation
for the Binomial Distribution

EDITION
For Any Discrete Probability
Distribution:
Formula 4-1 µ = [x • P(x)]
Formula 4-3  2
= [ x • P(x) ] - µ 2 2
For Any Discrete Probability
Distribution:
Formula 4-1 µ = [x • P(x)]
Formula 4-3  2
= [ x • P(x) ] - µ 2 2
Formula 4-4  = [ x • P(x) ] - µ

2 2
For Binomial Distributions:
Formula 4-6 µ =n•p
Formula 4-7  = n • p • q 2
For Binomial Distributions:
Formula 4-6 µ =n•p
Formula 4-7  = n • p • q 2
Formula 4-8 = n•p•q
Example: Find the mean and standard
deviation for the number of girls in
groups of 14 births.
We previously discovered that this scenario could be
considered a binomial experiment where:
n = 14
p = 0.5
q = 0.5
Using the binomial distribution formulas:
Example: Find the mean and standard
deviation for the number of girls in
groups of 14 births.
We previously discovered that this scenario could be
considered a binomial experiment where:
n = 14
p = 0.5
q = 0.5
Using the binomial distribution formulas:
µ = (14)(0.5) = 7 girls
= (14)(0.5)(0.5) = 1.9 girls (rounded)
Reminder
Maximum usual values = µ + 2 
Minimum usual values = µ - 2 
Example: Determine whether 68 girls among 100
babies could easily occur by chance.
For this binomial distribution,

µ = 50 girls
= 5 girls
µ + 2  = 50 + 2(5) = 60
µ - 2  = 50 - 2(5) = 40
The usual number girls among 100 births would be from 40
to 60. So 68 girls in 100 births is an unusual result.

Chapter 4 Probability Distribution

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Chapter 4 Probability Distribution

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ELEMENTARY STATISTICS

Chapter 4 Probability Distributions

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

Continuous random variable

Round results by carrying one more decimal

Event x P(x) x • P(x)

Event x P(x) x • P(x)

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

2. The trials must be independent. (The outcome of

3. Each trial must have all outcomes classified into

4. The probabilities must remain constant for each

 P(x) = nCx • px • qn-x

for calculators with nCr key, where r = x

This is a binomial experiment where:

This is a binomial experiment where:

Table A-1 in Appendix A

MARIO F. TRIOLA EIGHTH

Formula 4-1 µ = [x • P(x)]

Formula 4-1 µ = [x • P(x)]

Formula 4-4  = [ x • P(x) ] - µ

Formula 4-6 µ =n•p

Formula 4-6 µ =n•p

Formula 4-8 = n•p•q

For this binomial distribution,

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