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Basic stats and SPC tutorial

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Basic Statistics

• Types of Data

• Measures of the Center of the Data

– Mean

– Median

• Measures of the Spread of Data

– Range

– Variance

– Standard Deviation

• Properties of a Normal Distribution

Types of Data

Attribute Data (Qualitative)

– Categories

– Good / Bad

– Machine 1, Machine 2, Machine 3

– Shift number

– Counted things (# of Errors in a document, # units

shipped, etc.)

Variable Data (Quantitative)

– Continuous Data (Decimal subdivisions are

meaningful)

• Time (seconds)

• Pressure (psi)

• Conveyor Speed (ft/min)

• Rate (inches)

Sample Statistics vs Population Parameters

Deviation Deviation

Measures of Central Tendency

• Mean: Arithmetic average of a set of values

– Reflects the influence of all values

– The “balance point” or “center of gravity” for the data

– Strongly Influenced by extreme values

n

xn

x n 1

n

• Median: Reflects the 50% rank - the center number after

a set of numbers has been sorted

– Splits the data in half. 50% of the data points will be higher

than the median and 50% will be lower than the median.

– “Robust” to extreme values. A large change in the data

may have very little, if any, effect on the median.

Measures of Central Tendency

You have been asked to summarize the average salaries of Six Sigma

Professionals.

What is the average income What is the median

(or “center of gravity”)? income?

Ajoy Basu . . . Our Six Sigma Guru!!!!

(or “center of gravity”)? income?

Measures of Variability

values of a data set (Highest - Lowest)

• Variance ( ): the Average Squared

Deviation of each data point from the Mean

• Standard Deviation ( ): the Square Root of

the Variance

• The range is more sensitive to outliers than

the variance

The most common and useful measure of

variation is the standard deviation - why?

Calculating Sigma

X X- X (X - X)2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

N

8

9

(X X )

i=1

i

2

10 n-1

N

Mean

square (X X )

i=1

i

2

n-1

Problem: Using the form above, calculate the standard

deviation for the numbers: 21354

8 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Example

X X- X (X - X)2

1 2 -1 1

2 1 -2 4

3 3 0 0

4 5 2 4

5 4 1 1

6 N

7 (X X )

i=1

i

2

8 n-1

9

10

N

Mean

15

3

10

i

(X

i=1

X ) 2

1.581139

Data Distributions

-Normal

-Chi-Square

-Poisson

-Binomial

-Hypergeometric

-Weibull

-Exponential

-Uniform

-Lognormal

-Logistic

The Normal Distribution

• The “Normal” Distribution is a distribution of

data which has certain consistent and

predictable properties

• These properties are very useful in our

understanding of the characteristics of the

underlying process from which the data

were obtained

• Most natural phenomena and man-made

processes are distributed normally, or can

be represented as normally distributed

The Normal Distribution

• Property 1: A normal distribution can be

described completely by knowing only

the:

– mean, and

– standard deviation Distribution One

Distribution

Two

Distribution Three

The Normal Distribution

the curve can be used to estimate the

cumulative probability of a certain

“event” occurring Cumulative

Probability of sample value

68% probability of

40%

obtaining a value

between two

30%

95% values

20%

99.73%

10%

0%

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Number of standard deviations from the mean

13 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Descriptive Statistics

• Let’s look at the different data sets

• We will start with some Descriptive Statistics

• Open Normal.mpj

Descriptive Statistics

Summary for Dist1

A nderson-Darling N ormality Test

A -S quared 0.33

P -V alue 0.508

M ean 4.5563

S tDev 1.0126

V ariance 1.0254

S kew ness 0.112103

Kurtosis -0.011373

N 100

M inimum 2.0154

1st Q uartile 3.9625

M edian 4.4655

3rd Q uartile 5.2483

2 3 4 5 6 7 M aximum 7.1972

95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean

4.3554 4.7572

95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian

4.1821 4.7733

95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev

95% Confidence Intervals

0.8891 1.1763

Mean

Median

Descriptive Statistics

Summary for Dist2

A nderson-Darling N ormality Test

A -S quared 2.92

P -V alue < 0.005

M ean 5.6945

S tDev 3.5216

V ariance 12.4019

S kew ness 2.11132

Kurtosis 8.28447

N 100

M inimum 0.9080

1st Q uartile 3.3494

M edian 4.8154

3rd Q uartile 7.5011

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 M aximum 25.1022

95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean

4.9958 6.3933

95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian

4.0546 5.7578

95% C onfidence Interv al for S tDev

95% Confidence Intervals

3.0920 4.0910

Mean

Median

Anderson-Darling Normality Test

• Minitab uses your data as x-values and

plots the data against calculated

probabilities of being normal (y-values)

points and Minitab tests the likelihood

that these points matchup with the line

and come from a normal distribution

plot easy . . . P-Value > .05!!!!

Anderson-Darling Normality Test

Normal.mpj

Anderson-Darling Normality Test

Is Distribution 1 Normal?

Normal

99.9

Mean 4.556

StDev 1.013

99 N 100

AD 0.332

95 P-Value 0.508

90

80

70

Percent

60

50

40

30

20

10

5

0.1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Dist1

Anderson-Darling Normality Test

What about Distribution 2?

Normal

99.9

Mean 5.695

StDev 3.522

99 N 100

AD 2.921

95 P-Value <0.005

90

80

70

Percent

60

50

40

30

20

10

5

0.1

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Dist2

This is great . . . But why so

Much focus on the Normal

Distribution?

Central Limit Theorem

drawn from a population with a finite mean,

μ, and standard deviation, σ, then when n is

large, the sample mean, x , will be

approximately normally distributed with

mean equal to μ and standard deviation

equal to σ/ n . This approximation

becomes more and more accurate as the

sample size, n, increases.

Central Limit Theorem

• The standard deviation for the distribution of

means is called the Standard Error of the

Mean and is defined as:

x

x

n

x Standard Error of the Mean

x Standard Deviation for the Individual Values

n Sample Size

are more stable (smaller standard deviation)

than the single observations by a factor of the

square-root of the sample size

23 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Central Limit Theorem

• Let’s look at two different SPC charts using the

same data

• Open project file DM Central Limit Theorem (GB),

worksheet Example 1

• Using OUTPUT perform Graphical Analysis:

– Graph>Histogram>With Outline & Groups

– Graph Variables = Output

– Categorical Variables = Sample

• Sample 1 = whole dataset (n=1)

• Sample 2 = same dataset as Sample 1, subgrouped

(n=5)

• Sample 3 = same dataset as Sample 1, subgrouped

(n=10)

Central Limit Theorem

Histogram of Output

25 Sample

1

2

3

20

15

Frequency

10

0

45.0 52.5 60.0 67.5 75.0 82.5 90.0

Output

Sample 1: n=1 Sample 2: n=5, Sample 3: n=10

How does the variation compare?

25 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Results

means is very close to the population

mean

• The standard deviation of the

distribution of sample means is the

population standard deviation reduced

by a function of the square root of the

sample size

• The distribution of sample means is

very close to the Normal distribution

What did you notice about your samples?

Population Random Sample

Mean

X = 266

There is variation from sample to sample . . .

So how can I use this data to reflect my population

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

• Because there is variability, from sample to

sample, in my estimates of mean and

standard deviation, we can quantify our

uncertainty using statistically based

Confidence Intervals (CI’s)

• Most of the time, we calculate 95% CI’s

• These are interpreted as follows:

– Approximately 95 out of a 100 CI’s will contain the

population parameter, or

– We’re 95% certain the population parameter is

inside the interval

Parametric Confidence Intervals

sample comes from a certain reference

distribution and calculates confidence

intervals based on the assumed

distribution

• Very mathematically oriented

• If your assumption for the reference distribution

is wrong, your confidence intervals may be

wrong also

PARAMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

general form:

(Standard Deviation)

C.I. = Statistic K *

n

Statistic = Mean, Variance, etc.

K = Constant based on the reference distributi on

distribution

• For the Standard Deviation, k is a function

of the Chi-square distribution

PARAMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

• The Parametric CI’s assume a t-distribution of sample

means

• The general formula for Parametric CI’s for the mean is:

s s

x t / 2,n 1 x t / 2,n 1

n n

Where

x sample average

s sample standard deviation

significance level (1 - confidence level)

t / 2,n1 t - value for /2 and n - 1 degrees of freedom

What is t-distribution

Normal Distribution (Z)

Probability

t - Distribution

5 2.78 1.96

10 2.26 1.96

20 2.09 1.96

30 2.05 1.96

100 1.98 1.96

1000 1.96 1.96

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

distribution for large samples

WHAT DOES THIS FORMULA MEAN?

• For a 95% CI with a sample size of 10, the t-value

will be 2.26

• The previous formula

s s

x t / 2,n1 x t / 2,n1

n n

becomes

s s

x 2.26 x 2.26

n n

33 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR THE MEAN

• Let’s look at the Confidence Interval for

the mean

• Suppose we want to determine the 95%

CI for the mean from 10 samples from a

process. We sample the process and

get:

– Xbar = 249.6

– s = 14.15

– n = 10

• from the following data:

– 263.1, 249.2, 247.4, 263.7, 262.4, 255.6, 252.4,

251.5, 227.3, 223.0

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR THE MEAN

the formula

14.15 14.15

249.6 2.26 249.6 2.26

10 10

239.5 259.7

We have 95% confidence that the true mean of the

population falls between 239.49 and 259.71

CALCULATING CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Intervals.MPJ, worksheet

Example 1

Confidence Intervals

Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95.0 % CI

Data 10 249.56 14.15 4.47 ( 239.44, 259.68)

mean is between 239.44 and 259.68

We’re also taking a 5% chance that we’re wrong

36 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR SIGMA

n 1 n 1

s 2

Chi-squared

s 2 values from

c / 2, c(1 / 2), c2 table

n = Sample Size

Suppose we take a sample of 16 data points and get a standard

deviation of 1.66. The degrees of Freedom ( is equal to n-1, which is

16-1 or 15. The 95% ( = .05) Confidence Interval for Sigma is:

16 1 16 1

1.66 1. 66

c(.2 05 / 2 ),15 c(21.05 / 2 ),15

15 15

1.66 1.66

c.2025,15 c.2975,15

1.66

15

27.49

1.66

15

6.26

1.23 2.57

37 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

What if my data is

Not normally distributed?

Non-Normal Distributions

-Chi-Square

• Statistical tests are dependant upon

-Poisson the type of distribution that exists

-Binomial

-Hypergeometric • Using tools meant for normally-

-Weibull distributed data, when the distribution

is non-normal can lead to false

-Exponential

conclusions

-Uniform

-Lognormal • It is important to know, where

-Logistic possible, what type of distribution you

are dealing with.

Summary

Introduced basic statistics and the

concept of the distributions

Discussed Normal Theory and the

Central Limit Theorem

Introduced how to use Minitab to look at

the statistics behind your data

Performed simulations to demonstrate

the concept

Discussed applications in inferential

statistics

Introduction to SPC

Objectives

Process Improvement

methods

Common Cause vs. Special Cause Variation

•Is present in every process

•Is produced by the process itself (the way we

do business)

•Can be removed and/or lessened but requires

a fundamental change in the process

Control when only Common Cause Variation

exists in the process

* note - if subgroups are used, the common cause variation is a function of sub-grouping choices

Common Cause vs. Special Cause Variation

SPECIAL CAUSE (Signals)

•Unpredictable

•Typically large in comparison to Common

Cause variation

•Caused by unique disturbances or a series of

them

•Can be removed/lessened by basic process

control and monitoring

variation is said to be Out-of-Control and

Unstable

44 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

We Need Ways of Interpreting Data

data and we are forced to make

decisions:

Plants Output Decreases By 4%

Quarter

How Do We Manage Data - Historically

Suffering It Ain’t Broke Suffering

Requirement Requirement

(Lower Spec) (Upper Spec)

THIS METHOD

•Tells you where you are in regards to customer’s needs

•It will NOT tell you how you got there or what to do next

1. Actually fix the process

2. Sabotage the process

3. Sabotage the data (integrity)

Variation Example

Special vs. Common Cause

• The factory scrap level is at a year low of 1.5%

3

Scrap Level (%)

2

Party Time

J F M A

1996 1997

Derived from Understanding Variation: The Key To Managing Chaos, Donald J. Wheeler, SPC Press. 1993.

Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Variation Example

Special vs. Common Cause

• Manager wishes he could take back the award

• Instead of holding the gains, scrap went right back up

• Manager decides: “Recognition has backfired. This group needs

3 tough management!”

Scrap Level (%)

2

Manager wants to take back award

J F M A M J J

1996 1997

Derived from Understanding Variation: The Key To Managing Chaos, Donald J. Wheeler, SPC Press. 1993.

Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Variation Example

Special vs. Common Cause

• By November, scrap has risen to a value of 2.6% - Year High

• Manager decides to take action

• A “special meeting” is called to solve this problem once and for all

• After a sound lecture on the importance of scrap, the manager

leaves. Employees aren’t sure what to do. Besides, they have other

3 metrics which are more important. So they do nothing.

Scrap Level (%)

2

No more “Soft Management”

J F M A M J J A S O N D

1996 1997

Derived from Understanding Variation: The Key To Managing Chaos, Donald J. Wheeler, SPC Press. 1993.

Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Variation Example

Special vs. Common Cause

• Manager has seen reduced scrap levels since the end of last year.

“Things are looking-up!”

(REMEMBER: Nothing had been done to change the system)

• His take away: “A tough management style gets results!”

Manager concludes:

“Tough Love Makes Things Happen

Scrap Level (%)

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J

1996 1997

Derived from Understanding Variation: The Key To Managing Chaos, Donald J. Wheeler, SPC Press. 1993.

Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Variation Example

Special vs. Common Cause

like on a control chart?

Scrap Level (%) The REAL Story!!

3 UCL

1 LCL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M M J J A S O

1996 1997

Derived from Understanding Variation: The Key To Managing Chaos, Donald J. Wheeler, SPC Press. 1993.

52 Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

The Control Chart Tells A Different Story

• Manager

“ Hey, I made my decision based on data - How can I be wrong ?”

• Black Belt

“Your decisions were made from observing high and low points as

signals, when in reality, it was all noise (Common Cause Variation).

Look at the data, there has been no significant change in the

process.”

Manager concludes, “Tough

Love Makes Things Happen!”

3 UCL

Scrap Level (%)

1 LCL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M M J J A S O

1996 1997

Party Time Manager Wants No more soft management

To Take Back Award

Exercise

forms of “common cause” and “special cause”

variation

Common Cause

Special Cause

The Basic Control Chart

Key Components

UCL

CHARACTERISTIC

MONITORED

Plotted Data

Center Line

LCL

Control Chart Components

UCL versus LCL

UCL

LCL

• What % of data points should fall between the UCL and LCL ?

• If a point falls beyond the UCL or LCL does this mean we are

making a defect for the customer ?

Rules of Standard Deviation

“Where does the data lie?”

% of Data Points

UCL

3 Sigma 99-99.9%

2 Sigma 90-98%

The Item

We Are 1 Sigma

Measuring 60-75%

1 Sigma

2 Sigma

3 Sigma

LCL

TIME

Specification Limits ≠ Control Limits

Lower Control Limits = LCL Lower Specification Limits = LSL

UCL

USL

LSL

LCL

TIME

Specification Limits ≠ Control Limits

Lower Control Limits = LCL Lower Specification Limits = LSL

USL

UCL

LCL

LSL

TIME

Specification Limits ≠ Control Limits

Process Control Limits are calculated based on data from

the process itself

They are based on +/- 3 (99.73% of the process variation

is expected to fall between these limits)

Product Specification Limits ARE NOT found on the

control chart

Understanding how the process matches up against

customer requirements IS important to know

Expectations, a Process Capability Study is required

Specification Limits ≠ Control Limits

just an inspection tool - it’s no longer a control chart

Types of Control Charts

Variables Charts

Individual-X and Moving Range Chart

X-Bar / R Chart

Zone Chart

EWMA

CUSUM

Attribute Charts

p-Chart

np-Chart

c-Chart

u-Chart

Two Kinds of Data

VARIABLE -

The data are continuous (measured)

Results from the actual measuring of a

characteristic such as diameter of a hose,

electrical resistance, weight of a unit , etc.

ATTRIBUTE -

The data are generally counted

Results from using go/no-go gages,

inspection of visual defects, quantity of

missing parts, pass/fail or yes/no decisions,

etc.

Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Exercise: What Type of Data ?

Choosing the Correct Control Chart

Variable Attribute / Discrete

What Type Of Data ?

Counting

Data Collected In

Specific Defects or

Groups or Individuals ?

Defective Items ?

GROUPS INDIVIDUAL

(Averages) VALUES Specific Defective

(n>1) (n=1) Types Of Items

“Defects”

X-Bar R Individuals

X-Bar S Moving Range Is The Probability Of If You Know How Many

A Defect Low ? Are Bad, Do You Know

NO

How Many Are Good?

NOTE: X-Bar S is appropriate

Poisson Distribution Binomial Distribution

for subgroup sizes (n) of > 10

YES YES

Individuals

Moving Range

Area of

Constant

Opportunity Constant

Sample Size ?

In Each Sample

Size ?

NO YES NO YES

U Chart C Chart P Chart NP Chart

Minitab - Control Charts

Control Chart Tests

A set of standard tests have been created to help identify

SPECIAL CAUSE events present in our process

We use the phrase “Out of Control” when the points on the

chart have failed a test.

The Tests We Will Use:

Test #1: One point outside the UCL or LCL (3-sigma limit)

Test #2: Two of three consecutive outside the 2-sigma limit

Test #3: Four of five consecutive outside the one-sigma limit

Test #4: Nine consecutive on one side of the center line

Pattern Test: A pattern repeats itself (#cycles x #points in pattern >15)

something “unusual” has happened –

Go Check It Out !!

Confidential, proprietary information of Tyco International Ltd.

Detecting Lack of Control

(1) Start with Test #1 and Pattern Detection test

(2) If higher sensitivity is needed, also use tests

#2, 3, & 4

Test #1: One point outside the UCL or LCL (3-sigma limit)

Test #2: Two of three consecutive outside the 2-sigma limit

Test #3: Four of five consecutive outside the one-sigma limit

Test #4: Nine consecutive on one side of the center line

Pattern Test: A pattern repeats itself

Minitab Tests for Lack of Control

Detecting Lack of Control

that the process is out of control ?

Control Chart Example

Individual /Moving Range

Use:

• When its inconvenient or impossible to obtain more

than one measurement per sample

• When technology allows for easy measurement of

every unit at minimal cost

• Data availability is sparse

Variation

• Short Term: Represented by the variation from one

unit to the next (Moving Range chart)

• Long Term: Represented by a long sequence of

such events (Individuals chart)

Minitab Exercise

Individuals / Moving Range

Open worksheet: Individual

MR in DM SPC.MPJ

STAT>CONTROL CHARTS>….

Minitab Exercise

Individuals / Moving Range

I-MR Chart of Errors

10 U C L=10.13

Individual V alue

5 _

X=4.04

LC L=-2.05

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

O bser vation

8

U C L=7.488

6

M oving Range

4

__

2 M R=2.292

0 LC L=0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

O bser vation

Summary

• Linked Control Chart Methods to the

DMAIC Process Improvement roadmap

• Discussed different types of variation

• Introduced a few basic Control Charting

methods

• Discussed the interpretation of Control

Charts

• The Bottom Line………….

Six Sigma addresses Common Cause variation. If

Special Cause variation exists in your process, it needs

to be addressed independently, and prior to conducting

a Process Capability study.

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