Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
INTRODUCTION
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the
conditions of the atmosphere for a given location and time. Weather forecasts are made
by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere at a given place
and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change.
Once calculated by hand based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current
weather conditions, and sky condition or cloudcovers, weather forecasting now relies
on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human
input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon,
which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model
performance, and knowledge of model biases. The inaccuracy of forecasting is due to
the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve
the equations that describe the atmosphere, the error involved in measuring the initial
conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes. Hence, forecasts
become less accurate as the difference between current time and the time for which the
forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases.
Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and
property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture,
and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Temperature forecasts are used by
utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis, people
use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day.
Overview
3
Weather Forecasting Tools
To help forecasters handle all the available charts and
maps, high-speed data modeling systems using
computers are employed by the National Weather
Service.
5
Weather Forecasting Tools
•It is essential that the data can
be easily accessible for the
forecasters and in a format that
allows several weather variables
to be viewed at one time.
•Below-freezing temperatures
only exist in a shallow layer near
the surface and the freezing rain
would continue or possibly A sounding of air temperature, dew point,
change to rain, as cold easterly and winds at Pittsburgh, PA on Jan 14, 1999.
surface winds are swinging
around to warmer southwesterly
winds aloft.
7
Weather Forecasting Tools
NASA Satellites 9
Weather Forecasting Tools
• Occultation Method
10
Weather Forecasting Tools
12
Weather Forecasting Methods
• Probability Forecasts
• Climate records, often 30 years of data, are used to generate
probability forecasts for a given event.
• In this case, most of Texas has a less than 5% chance of snow on
Dec 25, while northern Minnesota has more than 90% chance of
snow on Dec 25.
13
Weather Forecasting Methods
• Several methods are used to forecast weather
14
Weather Forecasting Methods
• Weekly & Monthly Forecasts
• Stationary weather systems often allow for trend based extended
weather forecasts, while multiple runs of numerical weather
models, known as ensemble forecasts, allow for 30 to 90 day
outlooks.
The 90-day outlook for (a) precipitation and (b) temperature for Feb, Mar, and Apr, 1999. For
precipitation (a), the darker the green color the greater the probability of precipitation being
above normal, whereas the deeper the red color the greater the probability of precipitation
being below normal. For temperature (b), the darker the orange/red colors the greater the
probability of temperatures being above normal, whereas the darker the blue color, the1g4reater
the probability of temperatures being below normal.
WEATHER FORCASTING USING
Surface weather map for 6 AM. Dashed lines indicate positions of weather features six
hours ago. Areas shaded green are receiving rain, while areas shaded white are
receiving snow, and those shaded pink, freezing rain or sleet. 16
Weather Forecasting Methods
• Surface Chart Predictions
• 3-hour pressure tendencies plotted on isobar maps help predict the movement
of highs and lows and indicate how rapidly pressure systems are changing.
• Lows tend to move toward the region of greatest pressure fall, while highs
move toward the region of greatest rise.
• The low from the previous map will likely move to the NE, while the high will
move to the SE.
17
Weather Forecasting Methods
• Upper Level Charts
• Upper level winds, particularly those at 5500 m, which is a common elevation
for the 500 mb surface, often guide the path of surface pressure systems.
• These upper level winds, however, travel at nearly twice the speed as the
surface systems.
• Low will head to the NE, while the high will head SE.
18
THANK
YOU