Gold Monthly (Log Scale

)
This continues to be my best interpretation of the price action over the last few years and decades. Minimum timing objectives have been met already. With the recent $1,398/oz highs, the current Cycle <C> and Primary -Y- are in the midst of a ³cluster´ of wave targets. If this area does not provide resistance, it opens up room to $1,615/oz.

<C>
-Y-

(Jan, 1980) $873

<A>
-W-X-

<D>

(Nov, 1974) $191

<B>
$260 (Feb, 2001)?

Targets:
$1,387 for -Y- = 61.8% of -W- measured from the top of -W-* $1,418 for <C>= 138.2% of <A> $1,450 for -Y- = 78.6% of -W-

$101 (Aug, 1976) $35 (Aug, 1970)

* This is referred to as an ³external Fibonacci´ relationship.

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold Weekly (Log Scale)
This is has been my interpretation for a while now--that we¶re at the tail end of a Primary -Ywave that appears to be a ³triangle.´ The reason for the ³triangle´ labeling is that every single leg of this progression is a ³correction´ and the (C) wave was EXACTLY 138.2% of (A). However, this pattern is ³running out of time.´ Notice that we¶re approaching the ³apex´ of the proposed triangle. A ³limiting´ triangle should have concluded by now, as they typically conclude at 20-40% of the length of the triangle measured from the apex. The only triangles that conclude near the apex are ³non-limiting´ triangles, which means that there would be NO limit to the ³thrust´ of this triangle once it concludes. These are different than ³limiting´ triangles where the ³thrust´ is confined to 75-125% of the widest leg.
Throw-over?

-Y(E)

(C)
³y´

(A)
³w´ ³x³

(D)

-W(E)
$732

(B)

-X$643 8/17/07

(C)
³c´ ³a´

³x´

³y´

(A)
³c´ ³a´ ³b: ³w´

(D)

(B)
³b´

<B>

Five Year Move

Three Year Move?

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold Daily (Dec Futures)
Previous wave counts had the (D) wave ending too early. Based on the way the market has progressed, the corrective wave we¶re labeling (D) must have concluded at the 1159 low. Unfortunately, the current wave is taking on an ³unrecognizable´ shape.

(E)

³x´
w
-c-

y

(C)
x

b d

-a-

w x
1159

y
-b-

³z´

( E ) Wave Targets: $1,428 for (E) = 50% of (C) $1,492 for (E) = 62% of (C)

(D)

a

e

³w´
c

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold Daily (Dec Futures)
Highlighted here are a few of the channels and patterns that are making the current move up very difficult to identify. An ³impulsive´ move DOES NOT channel perfectly. This suggests that we¶re looking at some kind of ³corrective´ leg up from $1,159, but it¶s a corrective move that I cannot yet identify. There are a couple of bearish things present here. Gold appears to be thrusting out of a limiting triangle, which means the ³thrust´ should be limited to $1,418/oz, or 125% of the widest ³leg´ of the triangle. Also, we have some Daily RSI Divergence; though, that is on the precipice of being ³broken.´
Bearish Hangman Candlestick?

(E)

1159

(D)

There is bearish RSI ³divergence´ here but it¶s very close to breaking out of the ³downtrend.´

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold Daily (Dec Futures) - Support and Resistance

Because Gold has been breaking to new highs, the only overhead resistance is generated from Wave Count objectives, which create a ³zone of resistance´ between $1,418 and $1,450. First level of support is $1,371, which is based on the low of the potential ³hanging man´ doji. The next level of support should be $1,342, which is the 23.6% retracement of the last leg up. It¶s also a level ($1,342) that would confirm a ³channel´ break (lower dashed blue line).

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold Weekly (Log Scale) with RSI

Gold is also registering negative divergence on the Weekly scale. Highlighted here are the other two occasions this decade when this has occurred. This has bearish implications.

REPRINTED FROM 9/12/2010

There was one instance of bullish RSI divergence here

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold Weekly (Log Scale) with RSI
On the previous slide from 9/12/10, I wish I had written: ³This has bearish implications until the RSI divergence is broken.´

RSI can be treated with a trend line. For instance, there ³was´ negative RSI divergence forming, but the moment the RSI ³snapped´ the downtrend (red dashed) line, that was a signal that bears had ³lost´ the RSI divergence.

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author¶s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1³ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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