# Use of Mathematical Modeling in Biology and Ecology

Prepared by: Catherine Kiu Sandra William Sharon Yeo Yong Bing Sing

Predator-Prey Model

Use of Mathematical Modeling in Biology and Ecology SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) Model

Stella Model

Predator-Prey Model

Lotka-Volterra Model

 Alfred J. Lotka (1880-1949)
± American mathematical biologist ± primary example: plant population/herbivorous animal dependent on that plant for food

 Vito Volterra (1860-1940)
± famous Italian mathematician ± Retired from pure mathematics in 1920 ± His son-in-law, Humberto D'Ancona, was a biologist who studied the populations of various species of fish in the Adriatic Sea.

Rules and Regulation 1. This game involves 1 pupil as a guard, 4 pupils who act as predators (snakes) and 14 pupils who act as preys (chickens). 2. A paper will be stick on the back of the preys. 3. Predator has to eat the preys by taking paper which was sticked on the back of preys and draw 20 stars on the paper. 4. Guard will examine the 20 stars drawn. (20 stars drawn = prey is dead) 5. Other predator is not allowed to eat the preys that are dead . 6. Predators are given 1 minute to eat their preys. 7. Preys that are dead , have to stay with the guard. 8. Amount of preys that eaten by predators are recorded.

Guard

Predators A B C D

Number of Preys 3 6 2 2

Number of Predators

Number of Preys

1

A= 3, B=6, C=2, D=2 A+B=9, A+C= 5, A+D = 5, B+C=8, B+D = 8, C+D=4 A+B+C = 11, A+B+D=11, B+C+D = 10, C+D+A = 7 A+B+C+D = 13

2

3

4

predators

+

preys Phase portrait when p = 1.5

Lotka-Volterra Model
 The Lotka-Volterra equations are a pair of first order, non-linear, differential equations that describe the dynamics of biological systems in which two species interact.  Forms the basis of many models used today in the analysis of population dynamics

Predator-Prey Differential Equations
Assumptions  The predator species is totally dependent on the prey species as its only food supply.  The prey species has an unlimited food supply and  no threat to its growth other than the specific predator.

 If there were no predators (y), the second assumption would imply that the prey (x) species grows exponentially.  If is the size of the prey (x) population at time t, x = x(t),then we would have = ax.

 But there are predators (y), which must account for a negative component in the prey (x) growth rate. Suppose we write y = y(t) for the size of the predator (y) population at time (t). Here are the crucial assumptions for completing the model:
± The rate at which predators encounter prey is jointly proportional to the sizes of the two populations. ± A fixed proportion of encounters leads to the death of the prey.

 These assumptions lead to the conclusion that the negative component of the prey growth rate is proportional to the product xy of the population sizes. = ax bxy

 Now we consider the predator population. If there were no food supply, the population would die out at a rate proportional to its size, we would find = -my  (Keep in mind that the "natural growth rate" is a composite of birth and death rates, both presumably proportional to population size. In the absence of food, there is no energy supply to support the birth rate.)

 But there is a food supply: the prey (x). And what's bad for prey (x) is good for predator (y). That is, the energy to support growth of the predator (y) population is proportional to deaths of prey (x), so = -my + nxy

 This discussion leads to the Lotka-Volterra Predator-Prey Model: = ax bxy
= -my + nxy

where a, b, m, and n are positive constants.  This equations are called Lotka-Volterra equations.  The equations are autonomous because the rates do not explicitly depend on time (t).

 The Lotka-Volterra model consists of a system of linked differential equations that cannot be separated from each other and that cannot be solved in closed form. Nevertheless, there are a few things we can learn from their symbolic form.

 Explain why

dy dy dt ! dx dx dt

Note: This is a general result in calculus.

= =

x (shown)

Question
 Given a=0.04, b=0.002, m=0.08, n=0.0004.

x = ___ , ____ y= ___ , ____

So, (x,y) = (0, 0) or (200, 20) For the general Predator-Prey equations,

What is equilibrium point?
 Consider the system of 2 autonomous differential equations
dx ! f ( x, y ) dt dy ! g ( x, y ) dt

The first step is find the equations of the zero isoclines, which are defined as the set of points that satisfy 0 ! f ( x, y )

0 ! g ( x, y )

What is equilibrium point?
 Each equation results in a curve in the x-y space.  Point equilibrium occur where the two isoclines intersect (Figure 1).  A point equilibrium therefore simultaneously satisfies the two equations f(x, y) = 0 and g(x, y) = 0  We will call point equilibrium.

What is equilibrium point?
y

f ( x, y ) ! 0

Equilibrium

g ( x, y ) ! 0

x

Figure 1: Zero isoclines corresponding to the two differential equations. Equilibrium occur where the isoclines intersect.

Analyzing Predator-Prey equations graphically

 With initial conditions of x=200 and y=10, what do you observe?

Analyzing Predator-Prey equations graphically

t (month)

Fill in the blanks.
1. The chicken and snakes populations oscillate periodically between their _________ maximum and minimum. 2. For chicken, the population ranges from about ____________. 3. For snakes, the population ranges from about ____________. 4. About _________ months after the chicken population peaks, the snakes population peaks.

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations
 With initial conditions of x=200 and y=10, what do you observe? Plot it.

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations
 Starting from (200, 10), the solution curve can be drawn such that the tangent follows the slope fields. This gives a close curve in the xyplane as follows.

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey Equations

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations Based on the graph, at (200,10),

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

So, the chicken population is increasing at (200, 10). This means that we should trace the curve counterclockwise as t increases.

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations

Chicken snake

Chicken snake

Exercises
System r (t) = 2 r(t) 0.01 r(t) f(t) f (t) = - f(t) + 0.01 r(t) f(t)
Exercise 1: Initial Conditions r(0) = 120 f(0) = 200 Exercise 3: Initial Conditions r(0) = 400 f(0) = 100 Exercise 2: Initial Conditions r(0) = 100 f(0) = 200 Exercise 4: Initial Conditions r(0) = 800 f(0) = 20

SOFTWARE

FORMULA rabfox2 = NDSolve [{r [t] == 2r[t]-0.01r[t] f[t], f [t] == -f[t]+0.01r[t] f[t], r[0] ==200, f[0] ==10}, {r[t], f[t]}, {t, 0, 10}] rabfoxplot2 = ParametricPlot [{rabfox2[[1, 1, 2]], rabfox2[[1, 2, 2]]}, {t, 0, 10}]

References
 http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/ early/2010/05/25/rsif.2010.0142.full  http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~jmontgom/predato rprey.pdf  http://www.faculty.umassd.edu/adam.hauskn echt/temath/TEMATH2/Examples/PredatorPre yModel.html  http://www.simulistics.com/drupal/files/tutor ials/predprey/predprey.pdf

 http://www.stolaf.edu/people/mckelvey/envis ion.dir/lotka-volt.html  http://www.sheboygan.uwc.edu/uwsheboyga n/webPages/yyang/223/Notes/28predatorpre y.pdf

Slope-fields of Predator-Prey equations