Preparing for Climate Change Impacts on the Northwest Atlantic Marine Ecosystem

Hosted by

University of Maine School of Law and Gulf of Maine Research Institute
26-27 April 2007 Portland, ME

Why We’re Here/What we’re Doing
Societal Relevance Everyone Participates Panels provide a necessary (minimal) degree of background (90 mins) Dealing with uncertainty as we try to develop intelligent and flexible approaches to public policy (should P≤0.05?) Develop active connections among our disciplines and as individuals ~ research and public service Follow-ups

Marine Panel: Lew InczeClimate Change Background Andy Pershing Kevin Friedland GoM Pelagic Ecosystems Fisheries Populations

England
Gld./100 kg
15 12 9

Italy

Holland
6 3

France

1

1300

1400

1500

1600 Year

1700

1800

1900

From H.H. Lamb (1995)
Climate, History and the Modern World

Temperature (˚C) Relative to Present

Last Major Glaciation
(~100,000 yrs)

Holocene Temperature Maximum
Medieval Warm Period
~800-1300 AD

Little Ice Age
~1650-1850 AD

Thousands of years BP)
Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Phanerozoic
(majority of macroscopic organisms)

8000 7000

Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

6000 5000 4000 3000 22 2000 17 1000 0

12

540 mya

250 mya

65 mya 1.5 mya

Average Global Temp. (˚C)

ice cap during Late Ordovician

Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit
ess rec P ion h of t ee

no qui

xes

Variations in solar output

Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s axis of rotation relative to the orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds, ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust) Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane) Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

Eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit
ess rec P ion h of t ee

no qui

xes

Variations in solar output

Wobble ±1.5˚ in the Earth’s axis of rotation relative to the orbital plane

Hemispheric differences in ratio of land:ocean Distribution of continental masses, heating/cooling and air mass/winds, ocean circulation, transport of heat and moisture Reflectivity (clouds, ice caps, volcanic dust) Greenhouse gases (water vapor, CO2, methane) Uplift and erosion: ocean volume and biogeochemical effects

IPCC SRES emissions scenarios
HIGHER A1FI End-ofcentury emissions range from 1x to 5x 1990 levels LOWER B1

Temperature

HadCM3 Projected Change in Annual Temperature for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990

Comparison of Annual mean SST at Boothbay Harbor and Prince 5, 1924-2000. BBH at 43.84 N, 69.64 W; P5 at 44.947 N, 66.812 W
Annual SST 12.0 10.0 8.0 deg C 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1920
n=32, BBH=1.28 * P5, r2 = 0.72

Warm, moist Dry, cold

BBH Prince 5

1940

1960 Year

1980

2000

2020

Boothbay Harbor Monthly SST Anomaly (°C) 1905 – 2004 Anomaly = deviation from 20th century mean, 1905-1999
1 2 3 4 5

4 3 2 1 0 ­1 ­2 ­3 ­4 15 25 35 45 55 65 Year: 1905 - 2004 75 85 95 04

Month

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 05

• • • •

Temperature is important but not enough Stratification/Vertical Mixing [f (T,S, Wind)] Length of Stratified Season Salinity and Nutrients of Source waters (remote influences)

IMPACTS: • Temperature (north-south shifts in domains/species) • Increased uncertainty and perhaps lower production during faunal transitions • Lots of uncertainty from food web perspective beginning at primary producers

Available for download at: http://www.climatechoices.org UCS NECIA release—June 2007

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