Climate and Fisheries

Kevin D. Friedland and Michael J. Fogarty National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Northeast Fisheries Science Center

Expected Changes in Ocean Dynamics Under Global Climate Change
-Increased water temperature -Increased melting of sea ice -Changes in salinity due to runoff and evaporation -Changes in major current systems -Increased stratification -Changes in position and intensity of frontal zones -Changes in upwelling intensity -Changes in turbulence and mixing -Changes in distribution of marine organisms -Shifts in productivity of exploited species

Atmospheric Forcing
Atmospheric Temperature

Ocean Dynamics
Water Temperature Ice Cover Buoyancydriven Flow

Biological Response
Primary Production Secondary Production Fish Recruitment & Production Fishery Yield

Precipitation & Runoff

Salinity Wind-driven Currents Stratification & Fronts Turbulent Mixing

Wind Speed & Direction

Upwelling Downwelling

The North Atlantic Oscillation affects: •Temperature Patterns •Wind Fields •Precipitation

NAO Affects Cod Recruitment in the North Atlantic

Brander and Mohn 2004

Plankton and Cod Recruitment

Beaugrand et al 2003

Maine Lobster Landings and the North Atlantic Oscillation
Landings (Thousand MT)
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1945

NAO Winter Index

1965

1985

Year

Long-term Sea Surface Temperature
4 4 °N
A re a 1

4 2 °N

A re a 3

4 0 °N

3 8 °N

A re a 5 A re a 7

A re a 6

3 6 °N

7 6 °W

7 4 °W

7 2 °W

7 0 °W

6 8 °W

Friedland and Hare, in review

11

A

H 14

Trends in Long-term SST and Seasonal SST Difference

10 12

9

8 B 10 I

14

12

8

10

8 C 14 J

Summer-winter temperature difference, °C

16

12

Mean annual temperature, °C

14

10 D 16 K 14

14

12

12 E 16 L

10 18 16 14

14 12 F 22 10 21 20 9 8 7 G 22 8 21 7 20 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 N 9 M 11

Year

Gulf of Maine (Area 1) detail

11

A

H 14

10 12

9

8

Scaled minima and maxima for all areas

2

Normalized minima (-) and maxima (-)

1

0

-1

-2 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

Gulf of Maine Cod Landings and Temperature
20 Cod Temp 12

Landings ('000 mt)

15 10 10 8 5

Temperature (°C)

0 1930

6 1940 1950 1960 1970 Year 1980 1990 2000

Effect of Temperature on Mean Latitude of Occurrence
Temperature Change Coefficent Bluefish Spiny Dogfish Winter Flounder Red Hake Longfin Squid Silver Hake Long Horn Sculpin White Hake Pollock American Plaice Haddock
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Murawski 1993

Offshore hake – southern deepwater species

Warm conditions Cold conditions Response: move to cooler conditions

Courtesy Ken Frank, BIO

Recruitment and NAO Time Series Den Oever recruitment (log) North Atlantic Oscillation
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 4 2 0 -2 -4 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 b a

Year

Friedland et al 2007

Ekman Transport
40 35 30 25 20 40

50s

60s

70s

80s

Latitude (°N)

35 30 25 20 40 35 30 25 20 -70

90s

00s

-65

-60

-55

-50

-65

-60

-55 1.0 m sec
2

-50
-1

Longitude (°W)

Early Spring Phytoplankton Bloom Favors Haddock Recruitment On The Scotian Shelf

Platt et al. 2003

Georges Bank Haddock Recruitment and Spring Bloom Start Date
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 40 50 60 70 80
Friedland et al. in prep
-1

T-test Method CumVar Method

Log Recruits SSB

Day of year

Need Mechanistic Understanding of Climate Effects on Living Marine Resources

GLOBEC and other Climate Programs Addressing this Need

Climate can Affect Basic Productivity Patterns

Effects of an Environmental Shift
Favorable Environment Unfavorable Environment

If Intrinsic rate of increase is affected

Conclusions
-Decadal-scale variation in ocean climate evident. -North Atlantic Oscillation dominant feature in this region. -Changes in NAO have been linked to changes in cod recruitment. -Changes in fish distribution have been linked to temperature & NAO. -Migratory species may be impacted by factors occurring in distant locations. -Complex interactions between exploitation and harvesting can be expected.

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