Perceptions about climate change - how they influence vulnerability to poverty - presentation | Asian Development Bank | Poverty & Homelessness

PERCEPTIONS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE HOW THEY INFLUENCE VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN THAILAND AND

VIETNAM
Hermann Waibel
Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany Rural and Sustainable Development Division, Asian Development Bank
The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.

Targeting the Environments of the Poor in the Context of Climate Change and the Green Economy 24-26 Nov 2010 - New Delhi, India

Outline of presentation 
Background  Objectives  Methodology and Data  Results  Conclusions  Recommendations

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Background: Data source

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Research Questions
1. What is the experience of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam with climate-related shocks? 2. How do they perceive the future? 3. Which ex-ante risk management actions do they apply? 4. Do risk perceptions influence ex-ante risk management strategies?

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Methodology and Data 
Identification of climate-related shock experiences of rural households in Vietnam and Thailand  Elicitation of their subjective risk perceptions of future climate risks 

Model risk perceptions:
OLS-model: Ri = Sic + Xiy + Pp
Ri = ordinal risk score; Sic = vector of climate shock incidents 2002- 2008, Xiy = respondent characteristics; Pp = province dummy 

Ex-ante risk management strategies:
Probit model:
Y ! R  X  P u Y ! 1 if Y " 0 Y ! 0 otherwise
* h i i i p * i i i i

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Results
Shock experience between 2002 and 2008 and risk expectations in (2002-2008) and risk expectations in 2008in Shock experience 2008 among rural households Vietnam and Thailand, by type of events (n= 4330)
100 90 80 % of Households 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Climatic Biological Socio-demographic Economic Type of events Source: own calculations based on DFG database

VN Shock VN Risk TH Shock TH Risk

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Results
Shock experience of rural households in 2002 - 2008
Vietnam Shock Type
Climate Biological Socio-demographic Economic
Source: own calculations based on DFG database

Thailand
Frequency per HH Impact

Frequency per HH

Impact

1.7 1.3 1.6 1.1

2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7

1.9 1.3 1.8 1.4

0.9 0.6 0.9 0.6

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Results
ClimateClimate-related shock experience and risk expectation of poor and non-poor households nonVietnam
% HH Frequency per HH

Thailand
% HH Frequency per HH

Poor (< 2 $ PPP)
Shock experience Risk expectation

81.5 89.7

1.8 9.5

13.2 73.9

1.9 4.5

Non-Poor (> 2 $ PPP)
Shock experience Risk expectation

65.2 86.4

1.5 7.2

53.1 72.9

1.9 4.1

Source: own calculations based on DFG database

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Explaining Climate Risk Perceptions
OLS climate risk perception Respondent characteristics Agricultural occupation (1=Yes) Member in socio-political organization (1=Yes) Age (Years) Age squared (Years) Ethnicity (1=Kinh) Education (Years) Gender (1=Male) Province dummies Buriram (TH) / Ha Tinh (VN) (1=Yes) Nakhon Panom (TH) / Dak Lak (VN) (1=Yes) Climate shock incidents 2002-2008 Climate shocks of high severity (Number) Climate shocks of medium severity (Number) Interaction terms Dak Lak * Climate shocks of high severity Constant P > F (joint significance) R² N Vietnam Coef. t-value 6.23 4.38 0.39 0.00 0.75 0.10 -1.51 -1.68 -18.90 8.87 1.42 -6.24 6.66 0.00 0.28 1651 3.84 *** 3.65 *** 2.27 ** -2.42 ** 0.66 0.77 -1.59 -0.76 -8.72 *** 7.51 *** 1.21 -4.88 *** 1.18 Thailand Coef. t-value 2.47 0.67 -0.04 0.00 -a -0.10 -0.26 4.87 2.44 5.19 2.69 -a 12.20 0.00 0.10 1555 2.62 *** 0.54 -0.12 -0.03 -a -0.75 -0.32 4.88 *** 2.00 ** 7.29 *** 4.27 *** -a 1.70 *

Note: a Variables omitted. *P<0.1, **P<0.05, ***P<0.01. Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Risk perceptions and ex-ante mitigation exProbit: Ex-ante climate risk mitigation (1=Yes) Household characteristics 2007/2008 Maxiumum education (Years) Wealth per capita (PPP$) Tangible assets (PPP$) Number of household members Average monthly per capita income (PPP$) Engagement in off-farm employment (Months) Age of household head (Years) Age of household head squared (Years) Engagement in agriculture (%) Land size (ha) Ethnicity of household head (1=Kinh) Climate risk score Village/province characteristics Time to district town (Minutes) Time to market (Minutes) Off-farm employment as main option (1=Yes) Buriram (TH) / Ha Tinh (VN) (1 = Yes) Nakhon panom (TH) / Dak Lak (VN) (1 = Yes) Constant P > F (Wald test) N Vietnam Coef. dF/dx 0.0023 -a 0.0001 0.0389 -0.0005 -0.0087 * 0.0092 -0.0001 -a 0.7966 0.4618 * 0.0039 * 0.0005 -a 0.0000 0.0085 -0.0001 -0.0019 0.0020 0.0000 -a 0.1750 0.0839 0.0009 Thailand Coef. dF/dx 0.0167 0.0000 -a -0.0130 -0.0003 * 0.0012 -0.0250 0.0002 0.1474 -a -a 0.0044 ** 0.0031 0.0000 -a 0.0065 0.0000 0.0009 0.0056 0.0000 0.0360 -a -a 0.0006

0.0013 0.0003 -0.0042 -0.0009 -0.1419 -0.0308 0.0782 0.0173 -2.3375 *** -0.4282 -0.9082 0.0000 1476

-0.0001 -0.0056 * -a -0.1019 0.3046 *** -0.2373 0.0001 1555

0.0008 0.0009 -a 0.0257 0.0331

Note: a Country-specific omitted variable. *P<0.1, **P<0.05, ***P<0.01. dF/dx indicates the marginal effect of a one-unit change in the explanatory variable on the probability to use any ex-ante climate risk management strategies.

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Main Messages 
Climate shocks are the most prevalent calamity of rural households in Vietnam and Thailand since 2002.  Households expect more climate risks in the future with flood, drought and storms as the major fears.  Climate shocks cause considerable income loss (higher in Thailand) and take much time to recover (longer in Vietnam).  Climate risk perceptions influence adoption of collective actions.  Relationship with individual safeguard investments unclear

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Recommendations 
Incorporate experience and perceptions of people affected by climate change in public information systems and in planning public programs.  Make use of people's awareness about climate change to strengthen collective actions.  Establish better enabling conditions to facilitate individual investments for ex-ante coping against climate risks.  Support research to advance climate models for agriculture in Asia to combine subjective assessments and historical information.
Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

Biking in the Environments of the Poor

Environments of the Poor/Climate Change/Green Economy, 24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi, India

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