ADAPTATION BEHAVIOR OF VULNERABLE COASTAL HOUSEHOLDS IN THE RURAL PHILIPPINES WHEN TYPHOON MILENYO STRIKES

Jonna P. Estudillo
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development and National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Tokyo, Japan
The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice, opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.

1

Background
In developed as well as developing countries, people face a wide variety of risks to their livelihood. y Health related risks (accidents, sickness, or sudden death) (Dercon and Krishnan, 2000) y Price and yield risks, contractual risks, and policy or political risks (Kang and Sawada, 2008) y Natural disasters (Sawada, 2007; Sawada and Shimizutani, 2008) Natural disasters are typically rare or unforeseen events. Shocks generated by a natural disaster have rarely been investigated due to data constraints at the household level.

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Overview of natural disasters

Source: Disaster statistics, Occurrence: trends-century <http://www.unisdr.org/disasterstatistics/occurrence-trends-century.htm>, EM-DAT : The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database. <http://www.em-dat.net> UCL - Brussels, Belgium
Hydro-meteorological=floods, storms, droughts, landslides; Geological=earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis; Biological=epidemics and insect infestations

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Philippines
The weather bureau in the Philippines (PAGASA) reports that there are about 20 typhoons that enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility every year from 1948 to 2004. y Hydro-meteorological events occur frequently in the Philippines. Necessary to identify effective risk reduction strategies and coping mechanisms to alleviate the negative impacts of hydro-meteorological events y I present here a case study of a study village in the Philippines that was devastated by Milenyo (international code ´Xangsaneµ).
y
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East Laguna Village (Hayami and Kikuchi, 1982, 2000)
Hayami (1978); Hayami, et al. (1978); Hayami and Kikuchi (1978a, b, c); Hayami, Moya and Bambo (1978); Hayami and Kikuchi (1979); Hayami and Kikuchi (1980a, b, c), Hayami and Kikuchi (1981), Hayami and Kikuchi (1982), Hayami and Kikuchi (1983a, b, ), Hayami and Kikuchi (1985), IRRI surveys, Hayami and Kikuchi (2000)
Fuwa et al. (2006), and Kajisa (2007), Sawada et al. (2007)

80km from MNL

East Laguna Village was a typical rice-growing village along the coast of Laguna de Bay in 1974 when Prof. Hayami started his survey.
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Lessons from East Laguna Village
1. Households with more diversified income sources were much less affected by Milenyo. Income diversification in favor of nonfarm sources had offered the best insurance mechanism in the face of income uncertainty in agriculture. Policy response: Stimulate the development of the rural nonfarm sector by investing in infrastructure, most importantly electricity and paved road, and upgrade the quality of education. 2. Damages caused by Milenyo were largely idiosyncratic farmers who used small-scale individual water pumps and shorter-growth duration rice varieties were not affected by crop damages. Policy response: Strengthen agricultural research centers and extension services to update the farmers on the availability of new agricultural technology.
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Lessons from East Laguna Village (Continued) 3. Milenyo highlighted the importance of ex-post risk coping mechanisms such emergency informal transfers from close kins and aid from the local government in the form of food basket and house repair materials. Policy response: For small disasters creating idiosyncratic shocks, relief operations by sub-national, local and village government and private individuals could be the most effective. In contrast, in the case of mega disasters creating large covariant shocks (e.g., Sichuan earthquake in China and Kobe earthquake in Japan), relief operations done by national government through the military and international organizations such as Red Cross and friendly allied countries could be the most appropriate.
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Outline of this talk
y Vulnerability

and adaptation

behavior y Damages wrought by Milenyo y Coping mechanisms during Milenyo and regular typhoons y Public sector response to Milenyo y Policy issues

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Vulnerability and adaptation behavior
y

y y

Water logging on rice fields is a source of income vulnerability because fields have the same elevation as Laguna de Bay use of portable water pumps and short growth duration rices Flooding in the residential areas houses are constructed in slightly elevated grounds. Income vulnerability in agriculture income diversification in favor of nonfarm sources
Year 1974/76 (00PHP) 1980/83 (00PHP) 1995/96 (00PHP) 2006/07 (00PHP) *Deflated by CPI (100=1995) Total1 58(100) 2 53(100) 56(100) 76(100) Farm origin 50(87) 33(62) 20(36) 24(32) Nonfarm origin 8(13) 20(38) 36(64) 52(68)

Source: Estudillo et al (2010)

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Milenyo and its damages
y

Milenyo caused:
The Bicol region suffered most heavily with damages of PHP3.5B (US$70M). CALABARZON region lost PHP2.1B (US$42M). Shook and battered the lives of 4,022,603 individuals belonging to 825,493 families in 4,450 villages 496,325 homes were totally or partially destroyed. 127 deaths, 323 injured, and 45 missing.

y

Supports from Government and NGOs was only PHP95.46M (US$1.9M)

Source: Wikipedia, the free Encyclopedia.

The households shouldered the largest portion of the damages.
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Damages to the households
Kind of damage None (0) Lost house (1) House seriously damage (2) Lost utensils (3) Lost productive assets (4) Lost job (5) Income declined (6) Lost members (7) Members got injured or sicked (8) Crop damage (9) Others (10) Combination of (2) and (4) Combination of (2) and (5) Combination of (2) and (6) Combination of (2) and (9) Combination of (4) and (6) Combination of (6) and (9) Combination of (2), (6) and (9) Combination of (1), (6) and (9) Combination of (6) and (10) Total Farmer Number % 10 24 0 0 5 12 0 0 1 2 0 0 9 22 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 5 1 2 0 0 7 17 4 10 0 0 0 0 41 100 Landless Number % 63 42 0 0 39 26 0 0 1 1 1 1 16 11 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 7 0 0 2 1 9 6 1 1 0 0 1 1 149 100 Nonagricultural Number % 108 51 0 0 62 30 0 0 5 2 5 2 6 3 0 0 0 0 13 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 210 100

Source: Sawada et al (2009, p.118).

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Coping mechanisms during Milenyo
Coping mechanism 1.Reduce food consumption 1.1 Rice 1.2 Protein 1.3 Food taken outside 2. Switch consumption to own produce 3. Reduce child schooling 4. Reduce medical expenses 5. Sale of valuable items 6. Emergency borrowing 6.1 Bank 6.2 Relatives 6.3 Friends 6.4 Neighbors 6.5 Moneylender 6.6 Pawnshop 6.7 Sari-sari store 7. Emigration 8. Received remittances 9. Aid from local government and NGO 10. Nonfarm employment Farmer (percent) 27 0 5 22 12 2 0 0 33 5 12 3 0 10 0 3 0 25 46 85 Landless (percent) 76 15 27 34 34 1 3 4 50 3 13 7 6 6 0 15 0 16 65 60 Nonagricultural (percent) 47 8 13 26 22 4 3 6 30 2 10 3 0 5 0 10 0 21 58 94

Source: Sawada et al (2009, p.120).
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Coping with smaller typhoons
Self-insurance mechanisms such as ´own savings and incomeµ is the most common. y Help from relatives y Borrowing and remittances With Milenyo reduction in consumption and help from the government were reported because of the severity of damages.
y
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Public sector response to Milenyo
Relief operations village hall as a temporary shelter, grocery bags, galvanized iron sheets, and cash gift effective targeting of the beneficiaries because the village officials were actively involved thereby decreasing imperfect information and uncertainty between the donor and recipient. y Strict food price and supply monitoring y National government declared Laguna as a disaster area
y
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Policy issues
Self-insurance has been proven to be an effective mechanism against various forms and intensity of idiosyncratic shocks. y Ex post risk management on the part of the public sector could be effective if it is channeled to lower governance unit. y For frequently occurring natural disaster ex-ante risk management schemes are indispensible.
y

Income diversification offers the best hope in agricultural villages Disaster preparedness strategies such as infrastructure and building safety, drainage system to reduce flooding, and early warning system

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End of slide show

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