The Delphi Technique

Roger Lee
Arkansas State University
EDFN 8773
Doctoral Seminar, Research and
Evaluation
Delphi defined…..
 Delphi defined…..
 An “organized method” for collecting views and
information pertaining to a specific area;
 A method that allows dialogue between
geographically separated experts while serving an
effective means for learning;
 Gathering a group of experts to forecast events
and assess complex issues;
 Collective human intelligence;
 A process of exploring… assessing… and
evaluating.
 Delphi… an historical perspective
 Developed in 1953 by Olaf Helmer &
Norman Dalkey to address military
Delphi Studies
forecasting.
 1960’s – A forecasting instrument in 1200

many American industries & human 1000

services. 800
600
 1970’s – Critics questioned the
400
scientific respectability of Delphi
200
saying it lacked a scientific research
paradigm. 0
1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's
 Early 1980’s – In education alone,
over 441 Delphi dissertations.
 Late 1980’s – an additional 361
dissertations reported.
 Delphi..when is it appropriate?
 In situations where there is 
no clear-cut resolution of a
given policy issue;
 When time & cost constraints
make frequent face-to-face 
meetings difficult to arrange.
 When the heterogeneity of
the participants must be
preserved and anonymity
assured.
What kind of group
communication process
is desirable in order to
explore the problem at
hand?
Who are the people with
expertise on the
problem & where are
they located?
 What are the alternative
techniques available?
 Delphi… why use it?
 To construct a 4-year baccalaureate degree program;
 Automotive Technologist Curriculum;
 Design new curriculum in social work, nursing, and medical
education;
 Metal fabrication;
 Literacy campaigns;
 Land use policies;
 Future roles & organizational arrangements of hospitals and other
health services;
 Recreation & Park Administration
 To predict the impact of socio-economic developments on future
school systems, training, and research needs.
Delphi – Basic Findings
 A majority of the applications are in the field
of education;
 Education goals and objectives;
 Curriculum & campus planning;
 Development of educational criteria and policies.
 Output in quantity not matched by quality;
 Research investigating Delphi is low in
relation to its application.
Delphi… potential dangers
 Individuals may misinterpret the Delphi
exercise to be a policy “decision” tool
rather than a policy “analysis” tool;
 Once a Delphi exercise has started
there is no way to guarantee or control
for a specific pattern of response;
 The Delphi has been used as a political
tool rather than an analytical tool.
 Delphi… +’s
 Opportunities for large number of people to
participate;
 Focus is on “ideas” rather than “individuals”;
 Anonymity for participants which make
contributions of ideas a safe activity;
 Opportunities for participants to reconsider their
opinions;
 Allows for identification of priorities.
 Delphi … -’s
 Large amount of time to conduct several rounds;
 The complexity of data analysis;
 The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasm throughout
process;
 The problem of keeping statements value free and clearly
defined;
 Self reporting data is subject to respondent’s biases and
memories;
 The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion;
 The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape
group opinion;
 The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation;
 The unwillingness of individuals to abandon publicly stated
positions.
Who participates…?
Designing the “expert” team
 A national survey of directors of social
work….
 69 respondents generated 220 names

 a nominee had to receive 5 or more votes

 14 experts were identified

How Consensus is Reached...
 Experts submit a
statement regarding the
issue at hand...
 Participants vote on
statements…
 a statement is retained
if 70% of the panelists
rated the issue “3” or
higher on a scale of 1-5.
How Consensus is Reached...
 Statistical consensus can be
derived by using the quartile
deviation.
 The quartile deviation is
calculated by determining the
quartile range, subtracting the
lowest number, and dividing by 2.
 A quartile deviation of 1.00 or less
indicates consensus by the group.
 The Delphi Method
Delphi Stages Delphi Processes
Round 1: Participants Participants present their
are chosen. Initial data views on the policy.
is gathered.

Round 2: A list of Ideas are synthesized

possible alternatives is and a smaller number of
compiled and distributed possible policy recommenda-
to participants. tions are compiled.

Round 3: An amended These “policy” ideas are fine

list of alternatives is tuned by the participants.
distributed.

Study One collective policy

Results is established.
References...
 Adler, M. & Ziglio, E. (Eds.) (1996). Gazing into the Oracle:
The Delphi Method and its Application to Social Policy and
Public Health. Jessica Kingsley Publishers.
 Bramante, A.C. (1988). Establishing a Basis for the
Development of an Undergraduate Curriculum in Recreation
and Leisure Studies in Brazil: A Delphi Approach. A thesis
submitted for partial fulfillment for Ph.D. degree.
Pennsylvania State University.
 Raskin, M.S. (1994). The Delphi Study in Field Instruction
Revisited: Expert Consensus on Issues and Research
Priorities. Journal of Social Work Education. V30 n1 pp 75-
89.
References - continued...
 Shih, C. & Gamon, J.A. (1997). Using the Delphi
Technique to Assess Educational Needs Related to
Extension’s 4-H Beef Program. Journal of Agricultural
Education. v38 n1 pp 14-20.
 Webber, C.F. (1995). School Board Members’ Perceptions
of the Future: Patterns and Implications. (EA026769)
 Winzenried, A. (1997). Delphi Studies: The Value of
Expert Opinion Bridging the Gap -- Data to Knowledge.
Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the
International Association of School Librarianship.
Vancouver, BC