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COMMODITIES TYPES

   


Crude Oil ! Cocoa
Oil Products Aluminium Coffee (Arabica)
Refining Copper Coffee (Robusta)
Coal-to-Liquids & Gas-to-Liquids Lead Corn
Oil Sands Nickel Cotton
Oil Transportation Tin Palm Oil
US Natural Gas Zinc Rapeseed
Liquefied Natural Gas Iron Ore Rice
US Power Ferro-Chrome Rubber
Thermal Coal Metallurgical Coal Soybeans
Uranium Steel Sugar
Ethanol Wheat
CO Emissions  Orange Juice
Renewable Energy Cobalt Feeder Cattle
Gallium Lean Hogs
 Lithium Frozen Pork Bellies
Gold Magnesium
Manganese
Silver
Molybdenum
Platinum Rhenium
Palladium Tantalum
Rhodium Thorium
Other Platinum Group Metals: Titanium
Ruthenium, Iridium & Osmium Tungsten
Vanadium

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COMMODITIES MARKET OVERVIEW

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Source: Bloomberg
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ENERGY

† Global energy consumption has nearly doubled since the 197V oil
crisis. In terms of the energy mix, oil provides approximately V  of
total primary energy consumption, that is primary fuels that are
commercially-traded. Despite the implications for global warming and
the environment, coal represents 29 of total energy use followed by
natural gas, which meets 2  of energy demand. Hydro-power and
nuclear energy account for approximately  each.

† Energy markets, and specifically crude oil, are the deepest and
most liquid of all the five broad commodity sectors. The Nymex WTI
crude oil futures contract is the most actively traded commodity future
anywhere in the world, with annual turnover in 2007 of just over 120
million lots. The NYMEX WTI futures contract is therefore twice as
liquid as its nearest rival, the ICE Brent futures contracts. In the past
two years, turnover on both contracts has more than doubled.

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ENERGY

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CRUDE OIL

† Saudi Arabia is the world¶s largest producer as well as exporter of crude


oil. Although the US is the world¶s third-largest oil producing nation, it is also
the world¶s largest importer of oil, representing 2 of cross-border trade in
oil. In terms of annual production, OPEC's market share has declined from
about 0 in 197V to V2 in 1987 and has averaged approximately XV
over the 200 to 2008 period. This share is expected to rise going forward
since the 12 OPEC member countries hold 7 of the world¶s proved crude
oil reserves. The largest oil reserves exist in Saudi Arabia, Iran and
Iraq, Figure .

† The United States remains the largest consumer of oil, accounting for
2X of world consumption in 2007. In 200, China overtook Japan to
become the world¶s second largest oil consumer. Since 199 India has
moved from being the 1Vth largest oil consuming nation to the world¶s Xth.
Brazil has also moved up the league table of oil consuming nations from 12th
to 9th place over the same period. In terms of oil demand growth, China is
expected to post the largest incremental increase in oil demand during the
current decade.
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CRUDE OIL

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Saudi Arabia
8.9X
Canada
18.97
1.V8
0.9V Iran
1.8X 1.X7
Iraq
2.17
Kuwait
2. 9
Venezuela
V.20 United Arab Emirates

Russia
.71 12. 7
Libya

Nigeria

Kazakhstan
7.07
Qatar

China
9.9
United States
7.18
Brazil

7.2 8.V1 Others

Central Intelligence Agency

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CRUDE OIL

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BALTIC DRY INDEX

† The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the


London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea
countries, the index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of
various dry bulk cargoes.

† The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the


major raw materials by sea. Taking in 2 shipping routes measured
on a time charter and voyage basis, the index covers
Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a
range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.

† Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping


capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The demand for
shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or
moved in various markets (supply and demand).

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BALTIC DRY INDEX

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NATURAL GAS

† The US and the countries of the former Soviet Union are the largest
producers of natural gas. The Russian natural gas industry is dominated by
Gazprom, which controls 9 of production. In the
US, Texas, Louisiana, Alaska, New Mexico and Oklahoma hold more than
half of the country¶s reserves. Other major producers include
Canada, Iran, Norway, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. World
natural gas reserves are estimated at ,2 1 trillion cubic feet (tcf). The
Middle East holds X1 of world reserves, while an additional X0 is located
in the former Soviet Union, with only 9 held in the OECD countries.

† Burning natural gas is relatively clean, producing V0 less carbon dioxide
than petroleum and X less than coal. The major use for gas is in
homes, businesses and factories for heating, cooking and cooling. Natural
gas is increasingly used as a source of energy for electricity generation via
gas turbines and steam turbines. Compressed natural gas is used as a
vehicle fuel for public transport buses. In addition, natural gas is used as a
base ingredient in the manufacture of
ammonia, antifreeze, fabrics, glass, steel, plastics and paint.
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NATURAL GAS

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THERMAL COAL

† There are two mining methods in coal production: surface or µopen cut'
mining (X0 share) and underground or µdeep¶ mining ( 0 share). The
choice of mining method is largely determined by the geology of the coal
deposit. Two-thirds of the world¶s coal reserves are located in
Europe, Eurasia and the Asia Pacific. At current consumption levels, there is
enough coal in the world to last for several more centuries.

† Thermal coal, also referred to as steaming coal, is used to generate


electricity. Approximately X0 of electricity production worldwide is
generated via thermal coal. At most coal-fired power stations, the coal is first
milled into a fine powder and then blown into a combustion chamber of a
boiler where it is burnt at high temperature. The heat converts water into
steam which is pressurised and passed into a turbine which generates
electricity.

† The largest thermal coal producing countries are


China, USA, India, Australia and South Africa.

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THERMAL COAL

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URANIUM

† In 2007, Canada was the world¶s largest producer of uranium, amounting


to 9.Kt, although Kazakhstan is set to surpass Canada as the top global
producer in the coming years. Australia has the world¶s largest reasonably
assured reserves of uranium, amounting to 1,1X2,000 tonnes, representing
V0 of the world¶s total. However, there are tight restrictions on new uranium
mining in Australia that will likely remain in place for the next several years
which will restrict access to most Australian material, though we think these
policies will eventually be overturned. Other major producing countries are
South Africa, Namibia, Russia and Niger.

† Today, nearly 100 of all uranium produced goes to nuclear reactors for
electricity generation, with a very small amount used in research, medical
applications and as fuel for nuclear-powered ships and submarines. In its
final physical form, uranium dioxide (UO2) is a ceramic powder, pressed into
small cylindrical pellets. These pellets are loaded into zirconium alloy or
stainless steel fuel rods which are assembled into bundles to form an array of
reactor fuel assemblies.

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URANIUM

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RENEWABLE ENERGY

† Renewable energy is produced from resources which are naturally replenished, such as
rain, wind, sunlight, oceanic streams, geothermal heat and biomass. In order to get rid of the
intermittency inherent in renewable, storage capacities and integration to the electricity¶s
transportation network are essential, not even taking into account the potential of smart grids in the
future.
† Ò$0 is the most commonly of all renewable energy sources for electricity generation.
Hydropower generates electricity by harnessing or directing moving water. Typically, water flowing
through a penstock or a pipe, turns and pushes against the blades in a turbine to spin a generator
to produce electricity. Hydropower has been used for thousands of years to turn stones for grinding
grains and consequently it is one of the oldest harnessed sources of energy. However, it did not
become widely used until the 20th Century when the technology to transmit electricity over long
distances was developed.
† Ë $0 uses wind turbines to generate electricity. The power output of a turbine increases
dramatically as wind speed increases. Areas where winds are more constant and stronger, such as
high altitude sites and offshore regions, are better albeit more expensive locations for wind farms.
Wind energy has also been used by people since ancient times as a source of power to grind
grains and other materials. The earliest windmills were built in Persia in the 7th century.
†  $0 describes the conversion of solar energy into other forms of energy, such as heat
and electricity. Solar energy can be converted into electricity using photovoltaic (PV) devices or
solar power plants. Photovoltaic generates electricity directly from sunlight. Solar power plants can
also generate electricity indirectly using thermal collectors to focus the sun¶s rays to heat fluid at a
high temperature. The heated fluid then produces steam that is used to operate a turbine and
generate electricity. British astronomer John Herschel used a solar thermal collector box to cook
food during an expedition to Africa in the 18V0s.
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RENEWABLE ENERGY

† (/  is the energy derived from the hot interior of the earth. It is a renewable
energy because heat is continuously produced inside the earth by the slow decay of radioactive
particles. Water heated by the geothermal energy rises naturally to the surface via fissures in the
earth¶s crust at hot springs and geysers. Heated underground steam or water are tapped and
brought to the surface to operate steam turbines and generate electricity, a practise common in
Iceland.

†   is generated from non-fossilized materials derived from plants. The main
sources of biomass energy are wood and wood waste, followed by energy from municipal solid
waste (MSW) and alcohol fuels. Biomass in the form of organic waste can be converted through
gasification to produce a biogas (normally methane). The biogas is then burnt to produce energy.
When using biomass as a renewable source of energy it is absolutely necessary to consider the
durability of the source via land management practises.

† China is the world¶s largest producer of energy using renewable resources. In 2007, about 820
megawatts of solar PV were produced in China, second only to Japan. Canada, the largest
producer of hydropower in the world, produces about V.1 billion kilowatt hours of hydropower per
year, followed by the United States. China is the world leader in total renewable energy
consumption, followed by the United States and Canada. However, the United States consumes the
most non-hydro renewable energy, consuming twice as much non-hydro renewable energy as
Germany and more than three times as much as Japan.

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PRECIOUS METALS

† Gold held by central banks amounted to just over 29,800 tonnes as of the end of
June 2008. The lion¶s share of these holdings is held by the United
States, Germany, France and Italy. These countries gold holdings are equivalent to
around two-thirds of total reserves, compared to a world average of just over 10. In
contrast, gold to total reserve ratios are significantly lower in Asia and the Middle East
and in some circumstances below V of total reserves. The performance of the gold
price has been closely linked to the course of the US dollar and the level of real
interest rates in the United States.

† Since 190, South Africa had been the world¶s largest producer of gold.
However, last year China surpassed South African production by 1 tonnes. During
this decade South African production has suffered from declining ore grades, maturing
mines, power disruptions and labour unrest. Today China, South Africa, Australia and
the US account for approximately X0 of the world¶s annual gold mine production.

† Global central banks remain a powerful community in terms of the world gold
market. Their combined holdings amounted to 29,81V tonnes as of June 2008. The
largest holder of reserves is the United States with 8,1VX tonnes, equivalent to 78.2
of total reserves. The average gold to total reserve ratio across all central banks is
10.8. However, in Europe ratios are significantly higher with Greece holding the
highest gold to total reserve ratio at 89.9.
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PRECIOUS METALS

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PRECIOUS METALS

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PRECIOUS METALS

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INDUSTRIAL METALS

† Industrial metals are non-ferrous metals, meaning they do not contain an


appreciable amount of iron. The industrial metals complex is comprised of
aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. These six metals are traded on several
exchanges around the world. However, the benchmark contracts are listed on the
London Metal Exchange (LME). The LME was founded for in 1877 and much of the
business is still conducted through open outcry trading in the µRing.¶ Volume on the
LME is dominated by the aluminium, copper and zinc contracts, which combined
represent around 8 of all turnover on the exchange.
† The LME is a highly liquid market and in 2007 turnover reached a new record of 9V
million lots, equivalent to USD9,00 billion. During this decade the LME have been
increasing the number of listed futures contracts for example polypropylene, low
density polyethylene and steel billets. Aluminium is the most actively traded metal on
global exchanges. The annual production of aluminium, which reached V8.1 million
tonnes in 2007, exceeds the output of all other industrial and precious metals
combined, with the exception of steel.
† One of the most important trends during this decade has been China¶s voracious
appetite for industrial raw materials, which has accelerated since the country joined the
World Trade Organisation in 2001. This has led the country¶s share of world
consumption of not only industrial metals, but all major raw materials to increase
substantially.
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INDUSTRIAL METALS

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AGRICULTURE

† The United States and China are the world¶s superpowers when it comes
to agricultural production. Their combined output of
corn, wheat, rice, soybeans and sugar is approximately double that of their
nearest rivals, India and the EU-27 countries. However, what distinguishes
these two countries apart is that while the US is a major exporter of
agricultural commodities, China has become increasingly dependent on
agricultural imports. For example, in 2007-08, the US accounted for
V0, X1 and V of world exports for corn, soybeans and wheat
respectively while China has became the world¶s largest importer of
cotton, palm oil, rubber and soybeans.

† Of all the agricultural commodities, corn and wheat dominate in terms of


world production. However, global wheat production has declined over the
past two years in response to significant droughts in major wheat producing
countries, such as Australia. In contrast, global corn production has risen by
1 over the past two years following an increase in US corn plantings. This
has occurred to supply the US ethanol industry, which now consumes
approximately 2 of the annual US cornharvest compared to less than 
at the beginning of the decade. 2
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AGRICULTURE

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