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Dr. Pankaj Jha Associate Fellow, IDSA, New Delhi
y Introduction y Pre Cold War, Cold War, Post Cold War y New Security Challenges y Inherent Contradictions y Non-traditional Security threats y Multilateral Institutions and Security community y Concluding Remarks
y Product of World War II y Allies-Southeast Asia Command-1943 y First time gave a geographical demarcation and political identity y Bounded in North by China, South-Indian Ocean, Southeast-Australia, y y y y
Southwest by Bay of Bengal and India Clark Neher and Ross Marley-No Full Democracy Neo realism-Sovereign state, National interest and power Neo-Liberalism-Manifestation through multilateral organisations, ¶ASEAN Way· National position ¶that best serve its own national interests·
Second World War y Challenge to western domination y Japanese occupation in a number of Southeast Asian countries ²Malaysia, Burma etc y Thailand aspired to get parts of Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Malaya as its territories y Retreat of Japan and nationalist independence strugglesAung San, Sukarno, etc y Emergence of anti-colonial identity, colonial cord y Independence - Burma(1948),end of absolute monarchy in Thailand(1932),Malaya Federation(1957) Singapore(1965), Indonesia(1949), Philippines(1946), Brunei(1984)
y Capital: Yangon (Pyinmana being established as Government centre y y y y y
and New Capital) Gross Domestic Product (US$) - $80.11 billion (appx) Currency: Kyat (MMK) Population: 47,382,633 Languages: Burmese, minority ethnic groups have their own languages Major ethnic groups are Burman 68%, Shan 9%, Karen 7%, Rakhine 4%, Chinese 3%, Indian 2%, Mon 2% and other 5%.Prominent religious groups are Buddhist 89%, Christian 4% (Baptist 3%, Roman Catholic 1%), Muslim 4%, animist 1% and other 2% Myanmar had a unicameral People·s Assembly or Pyithu Hluttaw (485 seats) and members elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms.
Capital: Bangkok Gross Domestic Product (US$)-177 billion Currency: Baht (THB) Population: 64,631,595 Languages: Thai, English (secondary language of the elite), ethnic and regional dialects y Prominent ethnic groups -Thai 75%, Chinese 14%, other 11% y Major religious groups include Buddhist 94.6%, Muslim 4.6%, Christian 0.7% and other 0.1%. y Thailand has a bicameral -National Assembly or Rathasapha, the Senate or Wuthisapha . 200 seats , serve six-year terms. The House of Representatives or Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon - 500 seats ,four-year terms.
y y y y y
y Capital: y y y y y y y y
Kuala Lumpur Gross Domestic Product (US$):130 billion Currency: Ringgit (MYR) Population: 25.3 million Language: Bahasa Melayu (official), English, Chinese, Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, Punjabi, Thai Main ethnic groups - Malay 50.4%, Chinese 23.7%, Indigenous 11%, Indian 7.1%, others 7.8% Religions are Muslim, Buddhist, Daoism, Hindu, Christian, Sikh; note ² in addition, Shamanism is practiced in East Malaysia. Freedom from the British on 31 August 1957 - constitutional monarchy. Constitution amended on 16 September 1963. Malaysia -federal constitutional elective monarchy. Malaysia -bicameral parliament consisting of the Upper house and the Lower House.
Capital: Singapore Gross Domestic Product (US$):117 billion Currency: Singapore dollar (SGD) Population: 4.3 million Language: Mandarin, English, Malay, Hokkien, Cantonese, Teochew, Tamil y The prominent ethnic groups - Chinese 76.8%, Malay 13.9%, Indian 7.9% and other 1.4%, y Religions - Buddhist 42.5%, Muslim 14.9%, Taoist 8.5%, Hindu 4%, Catholic 4.8%, other Christian 9.8%, other 0.7%, and none 14.8%. y Singapore has parliamentary republic government, Executive power Cabinet of Singapore, which consists of ministers led by the Prime Minister of Singapore.
y y y y y
y Gross Domestic Product (US$)-5.39 billion y Currency: Riel (KHR) y Population: 14.1million y Languages: Khmer (official) 95%, French, English y The prominent ethnic groups are Khmer 90%, Vietnamese 5%,
Chinese 1%, and other 4%. Major religious groups are Theravada Buddhist 95% and others 5%. y Cambodia -multiparty democracy , constitutional monarchy. Bicameral legislature -National Assembly (123 seats) -elected by popular vote ,five-year terms . y Senate (61 seats) of which 2 members appointed by the monarch, 2 elected by the National Assembly, and 57 elected by parliamentarians and commune councils; members serve five-year terms.
y Gross Domestic Product (US$)-2.85 billion y Currency: Kip (LAK) y Population: 6.368 million y Languages: Lao (official), French, English, and various ethnic
languages y Major ethnic groups are Lao Loum (lowland) 68%, Lao Theung (upland) 22%, Lao Soung (highland) including the Hmong and the Yao 9% and ethnic Vietnamese/Chinese 1%.Prominent religious groups are Buddhist 60%, animist and other 40%. y Laos has a Unicameral National Assembly (115 seats and members are elected by popular vote to serve five-year terms)
y Gross Domestic Product (US$)-$6.842 billion (2003 estimates) y Currency: Bruneian dollar (BND) y y y y
Population: 388,190 (July 2008 est.) Languages: Malay (official), English, Chinese Major ethnic groups - Malay 67%, Chinese 15%, indigenous 6%, other 12%. Religious groups are mainly Muslim (official) 67%, Buddhist 13%, Christian 10%, indigenous beliefs and other 10% It is a monarchy and its Legislative Council met on 25 September 2004 for first time in 20 years with 21 members appointed by the Sultan; passed constitutional amendments calling for a 45-seat council with 15 elected members; Sultan dissolved council on 1 September 2005 and appointed a new council with 29 members as of 2 September 2005.
y y y y y y y
Currency: US dollar (USD) Population: 1.062 million Gross Domestic Product (US$)-349 million Languages:Tetum (official), Portuguese (official), Indonesian, English Major ethnic groups -Austronesian (Malayo-Polynesian), Papuan, small Chinese minority. Prominent religious groups(1992 estimates)-Roman Catholic 90%, Muslim 4%, Protestant 3%, Hindu ,Buddhist and Animist 0.5%. It has a unicameral National Parliament (number of seats can vary but the minimum requirement is of 52 and a maximum of 65 seats. Members are elected by popular vote to serve five-year terms). Note - for its first term of office, the National Parliament was comprised of 88 members on an exceptional basis
Addressing Security Challenges
y Political and Military measures at the national level y Bilateral Cooperation with regional states and extra regional actors y Multilateral Cooperation through multilateral organisations like y y y y y
ASEAN,ARF AND East Asia Summit Shared interest in regime survival and avoidance of outright conflict Credited for mitigating intra-regional tensions exceptions ThailandMyanmar(2001),Thailand-Cambodia(2003,2008) Pedra Branca (Mal-Sing)-resolved through international court of Justice Criticism of non-interference principle ASEAN Security and Economic Community-2020-Peaceful resolution of disagreements, trans national security challenges, community-No Defence pact ,military alliance or joint foreign policy.
Military Expenditure Trends-Select Southeast Asian Countries (1988-2007)
7,000 6,000 5,000 US $ million 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand
19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07
GDP Growth Trends
GDP Growth-Southeast Asian Nations (Percentage Terms) 16 14 12 10 Per cent 8 6 4 2 0 Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Countries Armed Forces Principal + Coastal Aircraft
Myanmar Singapore Thailand Malaysia Brunei Laos Cambodia Timor
406,000 3+67 72,500 13+29 306,600 20+87 109,000 11+14 7,000 0+6 29,100 0+52(River) 124,300 0+10 1,286 ------
129 102 165 68 7 22 24
y National Identity y Ethnic issues y Religion y Unstable regimes-Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines y Economic inequalities-within the region y Inter state issues y Less cohesive multilateral structures y Issues of environment, water, pollution, energy
Major Powers and Regional Insecurity
y Thailand-US ally Manila Pact 1954,Bilateral Rusk-Thanat
Agreement -1962,Non-Nato ally, Cobra Gold Exercises y Philippines-Mutual Defence Treaty-1951 and Manila Pact,2002-Mutual Logistics Support Agreement, Visiting Forces Agreement-2009 y Singapore-US uses base facilities, COMLOG WESTPAC1992,Fraemwork Agreement-2003 FPDA member y Malaysia-FPDA member y Brunei-Hosts 1,100 strong UK garrison y China offering military weapons and non-lethal equipment to Myanmar, Thailand and Philippines. India also emulating
Myanmar Thailand Singapore Malaysia Timor Brunei Laos Cambodia Military Rule under SPDC(pre SLORC) Democracy with military coup every now and then Single party domination, military under civilian control Single party domination, military under civilian control Fragile Democracy, military non existent Military under control of monarchy Military -Communist Party Democracy
Unresolved Boundary Disputes Historical Legacy Ethnic issues Religious concerns Transnational Crime Secessionist movements Human Trafficking
Myanmar Southern Thailand
Mindanao Maluku, Sulawesi
y More Tolerant form of Islam y Imported Ideology-Wahabi Islam from Middle East y Indoctrination of minds through religious education in Middle y y y y y y
East and Pakistan Political parties playing religious card More assertive religious groups Radicalisation at grass root levels International influences-Arab-Israel conflict, Lebanon war US war on terror-Conceptualized as War on Islam Counter-terrorism vs counter-radicalisation
Coal, Oil and Gas Bio Fuels Nuclear Energy Geo Thermal Energy Hydro Power Formation of ASEAN Energy grid Sharing of Electricity-Laos-Thailand, Laos-Vietnam New Investments in Myanmar-Hydropower projects
y Haze y Pollution y Water insecurity y Biological challenges-SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu y Climate Change and global warming y Reduction of peat lands- Carbon sinks
Maritime Security Piracy Maritime Terrorism Transnational terror groups-JI, Abu Sayyaf Floating Nuclear Power Plants-Vietnam, Indonesia and even Malaysia
Indo 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 33 57 47 60 115 119 91 103 121 94 79 50 43
MS 2 3 0 1 2 75 17 16 28 38 12 11 7
Mal 5 5 4 10 18 21 19 14 5 9 3 10 9
Sing 2 2 5 1 14 5 7 5 2 8 7 5 3
Phil 24 39 16 15 6 9 8 10 12 4 0 6 6
Thai 4 16 17 2 5 8 8 5 2 4 1 1 2
Myn 0 1 2 0 1 5 3 0 0 1 0 0 0
SCS 3 2 6 5 3 9 4 0 2 8 6 1 3
Cam 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
Viet 4 0 4 0 2 6 8 12 15 4 10 3 5
78 126 102 94 166 257 165 165 187 170 118 87 78
y Myanmar-Karen, Shan, Rohingyas y Laos-Hmong y Thailand-Pattani muslims y Cambodia-Cambodian Muslims y Inter-state tensions y Thai-Malaysia border problem-political and
diplomatic ramifications y Demographic change-Struggle for resources
Role of External Powers Russia China US Japan Korea India, Australia, New Zealand European Union
Regionalism & Multilateralism
y East Asian Summit y ASEAN+3+3 y ASEAN Economic Community y Free Trade Negotiations ASEAN-China,
ASEAN-India, ASEAN-Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand y WTO, Doha Round of Talks
y Dynamics of security shifting towards Non-
traditional threats-Comprehensive security y Bargaining of ASEAN nations vis-à-vis great powers y Regional powers asserting themselves y Contentious issues y China·s rise and its effects- a precarious situation y US reviewing its policy in southeast Asia y Assertive regional powers-India, Japan and China
Questions, must be many?
6 May 2009
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