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Devirtualisasi

Ekonomi di Indonesia
Dr. A.Prasetyantoko
Universitas Atma Jaya, Jakarta
Isu Pokok
 Pertanian  dianggap primitif  tidak
dikembangkan (added value rendah)
 Pilihan strategi: Industrialisasi &
“Finansialisasi”
 Dampak: Virtualisasi (decoupling dengan
sektor riil)

 Agenda besar : “Devirtualisasi


Ekonomi”  menanam kembali ekonomi
ke dalam “konteks riil” masyarakat
Virtualisasi Ekonomi

 Dimulai sejak 1970/80 –an


 Rezim monetarist (Milton Friedman)

 Tiga pilar
 World-level globalization
 National deregulation (financial
liberalization  Pakto 88)
 Firm innovation (derivative products)
Pokok Bahasan

 Wacana teoritis
 Empiris-deskriptif
Anti-Keynesian

 Kompromi Keynesian
 Fullemployment
 Social welfare protection
 Universal access to education and
health care
 Demand side economy
Peran IFIs

 IFIs are the major players of the


financial globalization, national
deregulation and firm innovation 
enhance the risk of crisis (vs country
risk)
Anti thesis:
Régulation Theory (Boyer, et al., 2004)
 There is no capitalism without crisis
 Crisis = a result of a contradiction
between several “modes of regulation”
within an economy and an early stage
of the emergence of new
configurations.
 Crisis would be always embedded in
an economic fluctuation withstanding
along history within a society.
 However, the recent crisis has new
features with regard to the previous
generation of crisis.
 Recently, crises are citius (faster),
altius (higher) and fortius (stronger).
 Since financial liberalization in 1980s,
financial crises were followed by
immediate international repercussion
or that crises had high contagion
effects.
Seven propositions in understanding the recent crises

 The presence of the asymmetric


information in financial market, which
implies in the inefficiency of market
allocation and enhance the incertitude.
 The problem of pro-cyclical risk taking
behaviour, which is referred to as a main
source of the most recent crises.
 Financial accelerator multiplied by the
coincidence with other combination
factors
4. Banking system plays a determinant role in
the mechanism of financial crisis.
5. systemic severe crises could be resulted in
the incoherence of macro economic
regime.
6. compatibility of national financial institutions
with international ones.
7. innovation of financial product and
internationalisation of financial operation
are regarded as important factors by
which financial instability transformation
should be determined.
Deskriptif - Empiris

 Virtualisasi ekonomi :
 sektorriil < sektor finansial
 Tradable sector < non-tradable sector

 Solusi:
 Stimulus fiskal
 Social spending
Outstanding Investment Credit of Commercial Banks in Foreign

Currency (in Billions of Rupiah)

20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.
Feb.

Dec.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Tradable Nontradable

Calculation based on Bank Indonesia’s database


Short-term book-debt by sectors
1
0,9
0,8 Sector 1
0,7 Sector 2
0,6 Sector 3
0,5 Sector 4
0,4 Sector 5

0,3 Sector 6

0,2 Sector 7

0,1 Sector 9

0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

calculation based on JSX’s database and Indonesian Capital Market


Directory provided by ECFIN
 Sector 1 = agriculture
 Sector 2 = mining
 Sector 3 = basic industry & chemical
 Sector 4 = miscellaneous industry
 Sector 5 = consumer good industry
 Sector 6 = property, real estate & building
construction
 Sector 7 = infrastructure, utilities &
transportation
 Sector 9 = trade, service & investment
Country’s Openness Index

FDI Openess

300

250 Hong Kong


India
200
Indonesia
in percent

150 Japan
100 Korsel

50 Malaysia
Philippines
0
Vietnam
97

02
90
91
92
93
94
95
96

98
99
00
01

03
19
19

19
19

20
20
20
19
19
19

19
19

19
20

Calculation based on database of Asia Regional Integration Center (ADB)


Trade Openess

350
300 Hong Kong
250 India
200 Indonesia
in percent

150 Japan
Korsel
100
Malaysia
50
Philippines
0
Vietnam
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
19

19

19

20

20
19
19
19
19
19

19

19

20

20
20
20

Calculation based on database of Asia Regional Integration Center (ADB)


Indonesia

80
70
60
50
in percent

FDI Openness
40
Trade Openness
30
20
10
0
1992

1996

2001
2002
2003
1990
1991

1993
1994
1995

1997
1998
1999
2000

2004
2005
Calculation based on database of Asia Regional Integration Center (ADB)
Persoalan klasik di sektor riil
Indonesia now has the slowest business start-up
time of any country in Asia
Singapore 5
Days to Start a Business
Mongolia 20

Malaysia 24

Thailand 33

China 35

Vietnam 50

Philippines 58

Cambodia 86

Laos 103

Indonesia 105

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Source: The World Bank


Business perceptions of Indonesia’s investment climate

Macroeconomic Instability 53
66

Transportation 42
49
Corruption Local Government 48
52

Economic Policy Uncertainty 43


59

Corruption Central Government 43


47

Electricity 36
42
Legal System&Conflict Resolution 39
41

Tax rate 38
39
Labor skill & Education 39
38
Tax Administration 38
39

Labor Regulation Local Government 37


37
Cost of Finance 37
37
Labor Regulation Central Government 34
35
License & Permits Local Government 36
35
Customs&Trade Regulation-Regional 33
36 end-2005
Customs&Trade Regulation-National 32
36

Crime 27
29
License & Permits Central Government 29
29
mid-2007
Monopoly Practices 28
28
Financial Access 23
28
Telecommunication 21
21
Land Procurement 16
20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Source: The World Bank


Financial sector openness
IHSG - BEI

3000
2500
2000
Level - point

1500
1000
500
0
Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.
Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.
Jul.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Based on Bank Indonesia’s database


Foreign ownership - number of shares

180000
160000
140000
120000
million of shares

100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
-20000 Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Jul.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Based on Bank Indonesia’s database


Foreign Ownership - Capitalization

140000
120000
Billion of Rp (miliar)

100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.

Jan.
Jan.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Based on Bank Indonesia’s database


Capital Market: dampak “positif” krisis suprime mortgage

4000 IHSG

PERTANIAN
3500
PERTAMBANGAN
3000
INDUSTRI DASAR DAN
2500 KIMIA
ANEKA INDUSTRI
2000 25 bps 75 bps
50 bps

INDUSTRI BARANG
1500 25 bps KONSUMSI
50 bps
PROPERTI DAN REAL
1000 ESTAT
INFRASTRUKTUR, UTILITAS,
500 DAN TRANSPORTASI
KEUANGAN
0 PERDAGANGAN, JASA,
DAN INVESTASI
13/11
26/11
30/07
10/08
24/08
06/09
19/09
02/10
18/10
31/10

07/12
26/12
14/01
25/01
11/02
22/02
MANUFAKTUR

LQ45

JII
Based on BEI’s database
PAPAN UTAMA
Local Currency Government Benchmark Yields

Source: Reuters
Benchmark Yields - 2yrs and 10yrs LCY Bonds

Source: Asia Bond Indicators


Sistem Jaminan Sosial
 Organisasi Buruh Internasional (ILO):
kepedulian masyarakat Indonesia akan
jaminan sosial bagi para pekerjanya sangat
rendah. Baru sekitar 17% populasi pekerja
yang dilindungi melalui skema jaminan
sosial formal.
 Sekitar 36 juta pekerja di sektor formal,
hanya 16,8 juta pekerja atau 47% yang
membayar iuran skema Jaminan Sosial
Tenaga Kerja (Jamsostek).
 Dari 23,1 juta pekerja di 143 ribu
perusahaan yang terdaftar, hanya 7,9 juta
pekerja di 91 ribu perusahaan yang
menjadi anggota aktif
 Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional (SJSN),
UU 40 tahun 2004 (UU SJSN) 
pelaksanaan Pasal 28H dan Pasal 34 ayat
(2) UUD 1945 yang secara konstitusional
mengamanatkan kepada negara untuk
memberikan perlindungan jaminan sosial
bagi seluruh rakyat Indonesia.
 Pekerja Informal : bahkan tidak terdaftar
sebagai ”warga negara”
 Global : ILO hanya 1 dari 5 orang di dunia
yang memiliki jaminan sosial memadai.
 SMERU : RUU jaminan sosial kurang
”market friendly”  investor asing, harus
diserahkan pada sektor swasta
Beberapa kesimpulan

 Dalam jangka menengah, pemerintah


masih akan terjebak pada
“virtualisasi”
 Tergantung pada pasar obligasi
(untuk menutup APBN)
 Tidak ada insentif yang cukup untuk
mengembangkan sektor riil
 Strategi ke depan
 Cara dan strategi untuk
mengintegrasikan pasar finansial
(modal dan obligasi) untuk membiayai
proyek sektor riil (infrastruktur)
 Big spender (saratnya zero-
corruption)
“Pro-poor strategy”

 Menindaklanjuti secara konsisten


 StrategiNasional Pengentasan
Kemiskinan (SNPK)
 Sistem Jaminan Sosial Nasional
(SJSN), UU 40 tahun 2004 (UU
SJSN)